2014 NBA Draft Thread (No Spoilers You Clowns)
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BigSoxFan said:
Of those guys, Harrell is the most interesting guy to me. I don't think he is a star, but an interesting player.
BigSoxFan said:
Curious as to why you're down on the Michigan guys? I thought last year they were weak (Burke is probably too small, but has a chance, TH is a rotation player at best), but I think GRIII is super athletic, very good in transition, defends well, and rebounds well, while McGary is incredibly agile for 6'10'', has top notch hands, is a very good passer, good finishing around the rim with both hands, and has an excellent motor.
I'll be disappointed if we're not picking Top 5 and getting one of your four "sold" guys, Exum, or maybe Gordon.BigSoxFan said:
I think there's also a reasonable chance that the worse of the Brooklyn-Atlanta picks ends up in the high teens, given how bad Brooklyn has looked and the limitations on Atlanta's likely ceiling. So some of the "want no part of" guys may be in play there and while I agree that I want no part of them with our highest pick, some of those guys look like great lotto tickets with a pick in the high teens. I'd definitely take a flyer on Caulie-Stein, for example, although I bet he goes closer to #10 overall.
The guy who seems to be getting lost in all of this is Dario Saric. He was pegged as a top 10 pick last year before deciding to return to the Croatian league, and in 2014 will likely last until the teens. He's got a really well-rounded game and has been playing well at a high level in Europe for a couple of ears now despite only being 19.
You should probably have been more clear, because after #10 a lot of those guys would be near the top of my draft board. Also, where McGary's concerned, the presence of two guys slower than constipated turtles shouldn't ever be an impediment to adding a big man. If there's one thing Boston could use it's a big man that can cover ground on the court.
Write it down. Celts finish with worst record. Brooklyn and Atlanat suffer injuries and finish just out of playoffs. Brooklyn wins the lottery going into the 1 slot. Atlanta jumps up to the second spot, forcing the Celts to third. Atalanta swaps with Brooklyn to take the 1 pick, giving the Celts 2 and 3. Atlanta takes Wiggins, Celts get Parker and Randle. Dynasty re-born.
I'm "sold" on the same top 4 guys as becoming excellent NBA players, but not on any of them becoming a true franchise player. Maybe several of them will become franchise players, but maybe not.
Michigan State's Gary Harris needs to be in the lottery discussion, and so does Doug McDermott. People knock McDermott for staying 4 years, but maybe that's because his father is his coach? No, he's not a super athlete, just a very good basketball player.
It's too bad that Danny does not have a second rounder this year, because there are several very interesting international players who are unlikely to go in the top 30, e.g. the Serbian guard Micic.
Michigan State's Gary Harris needs to be in the lottery discussion, and so does Doug McDermott. People knock McDermott for staying 4 years, but maybe that's because his father is his coach? No, he's not a super athlete, just a very good basketball player.
It's too bad that Danny does not have a second rounder this year, because there are several very interesting international players who are unlikely to go in the top 30, e.g. the Serbian guard Micic.
BigSoxFan said:
This is a good rundown of where I stand as well.
Only disagreement is possibly McGary. Still want to see more of him, though I admit I'm not sold yet. I think he's more athletic than he looks, and might have an NBA future. I wouldn't put his athleticism and agility down on the Olynyk/Sullinger level, I think it's clearly better than that. Though I agree that threesome would still likely need a more athletic big as the 4th guy in the PF/C rotation.
It's probably the left handed white guy thing, but I feel like he could turn into a bigger/stronger David Lee with more passing skills.
Maybe thats not thats not much like David Lee after all....
knucklecup said:
He has all-star potential. I would love to see the local kid end up in green, but will he be a one-and-done?
McGary's got a little bit of Dave Cowens in him. He's definitely not in the upper echelon in this draft, but assuming continued progress he should be a nice pro.
Everything I've read suggests that Vonleh will stay at least two years. But if hes one and done then he could definitely be in the conversation for top half of the lottery.DannyDarwinism said:
Watched the Memphis/Oklahoma State game on DVR yesterday. Holy crap, did Smart put on a performance. Scored 21 in the first 10 minutes, including multiple threes and a 4 point play. Outside shooting was the big knock on him this year, so if he improves that he should be an elite-NBA PG. Good size for a PG, reminds me of a more-polished Jrue Holliday.
Took a look at The Mag's NCAA preview where they break down the draft. Have the Celtics picking 5th, passing on Parker for Embiid. That couldn't possibly be the future?
Took a look at The Mag's NCAA preview where they break down the draft. Have the Celtics picking 5th, passing on Parker for Embiid. That couldn't possibly be the future?
nighthob said:
That is how I felt. ESPN says "The Celtics take a hard look at Parker, but can't pass up on Embiid's size and Hakeem-like potential."
Because a guy is big and from Africa he suddenly has Hakeem-like potential? Let's take a look at all African-born players drafted in the first round in the last decade:
2013: #21-Gorgui Dieng-Too early to tell, good defender and post player for Louisville though
2012: #30-Festus Ezeli- Still young, ceiling is probably a specialty player that plays 10-15 minutes a game.
2011: #7-Bismack Biyombo- Okay post defender, probably will be considered a bust because of how high he was drafted.
2010: #8-Al-Farouq Aminu- Nigerian born, okay swingman, but like Biyombo, a bust because of how high he was picked.
2009: #2-Hasheem Thabeet-Came out of school too soon, busted big time.
2009: #30-Christian Eyenga- Seldomly played in the NBA, now playing in Poland.
2008: # 24-Serge Ibaka- Third best player on a championship-contender. Improved jump shooter and elite shot blocker.
2006: #10-Saer Sene- Played sparingly in the NBA, actually made an All-D-League team, now playing in France.
2005: #9-Ike Diogu- Peaked by averaging 9-4 for Sacramento in 2009. Currently a FA.
2003: #26-Ndudi Ebi-Barely played, now in Italy
So, you have one successful pick, and the rest are busts or non-contributors. I'm not saying that Embiid is going to be a bust, but the history with African-players, even those with a decent amount of basketball experience, is not that great. They draft these guys for their athletic potential, and that hardly ever pans out.
Well, the Hakeem comparisons are based on the fact that both came to basketball late. But even Hakeem started playing earlier than Embiid and stayed at the college level longer than Embiid will back in the days before the NCAA imposed practice restrictions. Beyond that Hakeem was a talented multi-sport athlete while Embiid was a volleyball player. The athleticism is good, and there's a pretty good chance that his career is more Serge Ibaka than Saer Sene or Johan Petro (two other athletic bigs that came to basketball relatively late). But, seriously, ain't no way that anyone this side of Chris Grant is turning down a potential alpha scorer for a project big man (and this is why we should all pray for the Cavs to land a top 3 pick).
The way I see it, there are four centerpiece guys in this draft: Wiggins, Randle, Parker and Smart. Gordon and Exum are talented guys that I am not totally sold on, they have some question marks. I see the Celtics picking around the 4-7 so I think out best hope is to have a GM get tantalized with Gordon or Exum and one of the top 4 falls to Boston. I just don't think we suck enough to get in the top 3.
Getting into the top 3 is complete luck. Unless Boston manages to pass 36 wins (not happening) they're drafting in the top 10. There's no way that any of the big four slips past 5, and that's assuming that Chris Grant steps in to grab Embiid. Keep your eye on Exum, Ainge apparently loves him and if he's on the board when Boston's picking (unless they're in the top three) he's probably their guy.
It's pretty much all over the draft sites, Boston spends more time scouting him than anyone else does. The only reason for the focus would be that he's near the top of their draft boards. You can't count on a top three pick because that's basically a matter of luck, so teams like to focus on guys they think will be on the board for them, and it appears that Boston thinks Exum a possibility for the mid lottery.
Which draft sites? I look at DraftExress and Nbadraft.net with some frequency and I haven't seen anything about Ainge being especially interested in Exum. Jon Givorney's site (DraftExpress) has Exum going at #3 and Nbadraft.net has him going at #5 and I don't see anywhere that he's projected to go mid lottery. Having said that, any of the players currently projected at the top of the draft could slip to mid lottery, which sometimes happens with 18-19 year-olds.nighthob said:
More likely Exum's agent is pimping him, or else Ainge is putting down a smokescreen, a la Robert Swift.
Brickowski said:
A smoke screen that Ainge was so dedicated to he was still trying to trade for Swift two years later just so that no one would know that he was pulling a fast one on draft night in '04!
(Also, I think of 1-4 as high lottery, 5-10 as mid lottery, and 11-14 as late lottery, if Ainge is expecting to draft in the 5-10 range, then his focus is likely going to be on guys available in that range.)
nighthob said:
I think it is way too early to start focus on ranges. One, especially with the lottery, it is hard to predict where the Celtics will pick. Second, there still could be fluctuations about where players could land. I bet no one would have been close to predicting the last draft's order in November 2012.
SaveBooFerriss said:
That's because landing in the top three is completely a matter of luck and there's always someone in the five to ten range getting in there, which completely throws the results into disarray. But, for safety's sake, if you're estimating your position, you should probably start with the assumption that you're going to drop a spot. At the end of the day Boston will finish with one of the eight worst records, it's not really avoidable, but unless they actually win the lottery for a change they don't have much shot of cracking the top five.
nighthob said:
Your statement is illogical. Your premise is that the Celtics, and I assume all other similarly situated teams, should just focus on the guys available in the 5-10 range, but you state that one team in this range always ends up with a top three pick. That is exactly why you don't focus on ranges! You have to prepare for anything at this point. There is plenty of time after the picks are set that a team can look at ranges.
But, just as important, this time last year, Noel and McLemore were sure thing top three picks. They ended up going 6-7. You need to scout everyone.
ummm. No. The statement everyone is disputing is that it's somehow illogical for Boston to very closely follow the guys on their draftboard with an emphasis on the guys likely to be available to them. For example, I'm sure the Spurs devoted scouting resources in 2011 to Kyrie Irving. I'm equally positive that they probably spent even more time evaluating guys likely to be available in the mid to late first round. So, in response to the question "Why would Boston devote resources to scouting Dante Exum?" Because they think there's a good chance that he'll be on the board in the 6-8 range and they don't want to call his name without knowing every last thing they can. That's how you end up with draft picks like Gerald Green.SaveBooFerriss said:
That was before one of them blew up his knee and the other gave a shout out to his uncle Darnell locked up in prison.
nighthob said:
But that is whole point. No one knows in November who is going to get drafted at what spot because of the myriad of issues that can come up. You also conveniently ignore that fact that it is common for teams to trade picks to move up and down the draft board and that these trades often happen on the night of the draft.
You are 100% wrong that Ainge is or should be focusing on players in the 5-10 range because there is no way to know if the Celtics will pick in that range nor is there any way to know what players will fall in the range.
You say what you want, but you can't say with any degree of certainty where the Celtics will pick (before or after any trade) or which players will be available when they do pick, so everything you wrote is 100% bullsh!t.
As to your straw man question "Why should the Celtics devote resources to scout Exum?", my whole point is they should definitely scout him because they have no idea if he will be available when they draft so they should scout him and any other players they have interest in.
I think most teams have a list: 1-60. Players are ranked regardless of projected availability. When it comes your turn to draft, you take the best player remaining on your list, or if you are a contending team already, you might factor in need, although it almost always pays to take the best player available who can then be traded to fill the need.
You never know who will slip, or if some other team will call with a trade proposal.
You never know who will slip, or if some other team will call with a trade proposal.
If the games in Chicago were like a coming out party for the projected top picks, last night was a step back for them. Parker had a rough night, forcing shots that would not stay down. Wiggins couldn't save his team from being upset and Gordon, while solid, did not assert himself and was content to let his teammates win the game for Arizona. Smart had his worst outing of the season, although his team still won and he did play well.
Parker has the most skills, but right now Smart is the best player, and it actually is not even close. Smart could be a starter in the NBA right now, and reminds me a lot of Derrick Rose. The thing is, this draft is so loaded that if you told me in advance that a player like Derrick Rose was in the draft, IDK if I would draft him first. The fact that there are guys that I think could potentially be better than a former MVP is very impressive.
Parker has the most skills, but right now Smart is the best player, and it actually is not even close. Smart could be a starter in the NBA right now, and reminds me a lot of Derrick Rose. The thing is, this draft is so loaded that if you told me in advance that a player like Derrick Rose was in the draft, IDK if I would draft him first. The fact that there are guys that I think could potentially be better than a former MVP is very impressive.
I watched the Duke/Arizona game. Parker couldn't do much, they rotated 3 athletic guys 6'7" or bigger on him, fronted him in the post to make him get the ball outside, and hedged into the driving lanes to cut him off. Arizona's D is stifling. Also talking about top prospects, Aaron Gordon looks like a really good defender on the ball for a 6'9" guy. He was efficient with the ball on offense, and rebounded well. He ma not put up the huge stats because he plays on such a balanced offense, but he looks legit.Kliq said:
Selden has out played Wiggins so far this season. Wiggins is still a better prospect, but Selden is playing better right now.
I spent a good part of a Baylor game just watching Austin. It was hard, as anytime he faced away from the camera he disappeared to the naked eye. Dude is so skinny he makes Noel look like Z-Bo.
I spent a good part of a Baylor game just watching Austin. It was hard, as anytime he faced away from the camera he disappeared to the naked eye. Dude is so skinny he makes Noel look like Z-Bo.
Two of the more highly touted college players are on TV. Aaron Gordon and Glenn Robinson III. Neither looks particularly good, much less worth "tanking" for. At some point you have to wonder how much of this draft's hype is really worth buying.
I don't think much of Mcadoo as a future NBA player, but he played very well tonight against a frontline with future NBA players on it. Also, I think the Harrison brothers are good offensive players, but their defense was pitiful and slow. North Carolina's guards were able to get by them into the rim all night.Lastly, Cauley-Stein is a specialist player in the NBA at best. Very good defensive insticts and cna block a lot of shots, but lacks restraint and discipline, and has virtually no offensive game despite his size and athleticism.
Kliq said:
Good points.
I agree what Cauley-Stein has lookedlike a niche player, but rim protection is a valuable skill. So that still would make him a likely 10-15 range pick.
How did Kentucky swingman James Young look?
Young was okay, Kentucky needs him to pop out more for jumpers because their offense becomes kind of log jam with Randly and Caulet-Stein. Watchin Kansas right now, and Embiid was very impressive. 17 points in under 25 minutes, fantastic defense, ran like a deer up and down the court. I have been hard on him because I think people are overrating his draft potential, but the guy is far from a stiff.
Kliq said:
Thanks for the input. From what I've seen I'd take Embiid over everyone in the draft. Parker and Wiggins included. Love his physical talent. Love his activity level. Love the fact that he does things most bigs don't do well (passing, coordinated post moves), and has improved rapidly. I'd think he's the 1st pick at this rate unfortunately.
I'm with you. Of the high-profile guys I've seen so far, he looks to be the best guy considering nobody doubts his upside either.The X Man Cometh said:
I saw about half the game. Indeed Embid looked very good. He's light years ahead of players like Fab Melo. If Embid keeps showing improvement, he's going to go #1 overall. Wiggins didn't shine when I was watching.
So from what I've gathered:
Embiid
Parker
Smart
Wiggins (all upside until he learns how to shoot?)
Randle (tweener concerns?)
Exum (only plays against high schoolers? broken jumper?)
Hezonja (attitude problems?)
Hood (unathletic?)
Objections?
Embiid
Parker
Smart
Wiggins (all upside until he learns how to shoot?)
Randle (tweener concerns?)
Exum (only plays against high schoolers? broken jumper?)
Hezonja (attitude problems?)
Hood (unathletic?)
Objections?