2014-15 Champions League: the Quixotic Quest to Qualify
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i can't believe Patrice Evra is playing fullback on a team that is in a position to make the CL finals
teddykgb said:
Agreed, but I'm more surprised that Massiliano Allegri has them in a position to manage the CL finals
Getting tense. Has felt for 15 minutes like Real has a goal coming, but they really are running out of time.
If they do get one, Casillas has been good since letting in a questionable goal.
If they do get one, Casillas has been good since letting in a questionable goal.
Interesting, too, that despite all the money Real Madrid spends, they've made one substitution: Chicharito, a guy on loan who has sat on the bench nearly the entire year.
This Madrid team really lacks balance with Modric injured. I have no idea how Kroos is able to hold his own as essentially a lone CM.
Lesser of the two evils advances. I must admit I enjoyed the schaudenfraude of seeing sad Real Madrid fans in slow motion over and over.
Biggest difference between Real and Barca right now is that one spent a bazillion euros on Bale and the other spent a bazillion euros on Suarez.
Both clubs have good-if-maybe-overrated central defenses, fullbacks that can attack, good ball playing midfielders, one of the greatest attackers of all time, and another high priced attacking import that has largely worked out (James/Neymar). But one bought Bale, who doesn't fit the team at all and has disappeared in most big games, and the other bought Suarez, who has developed uncanny mindmeld with Messi and scored or assisted some massive goals this spring.
Both clubs have good-if-maybe-overrated central defenses, fullbacks that can attack, good ball playing midfielders, one of the greatest attackers of all time, and another high priced attacking import that has largely worked out (James/Neymar). But one bought Bale, who doesn't fit the team at all and has disappeared in most big games, and the other bought Suarez, who has developed uncanny mindmeld with Messi and scored or assisted some massive goals this spring.
Bale did have a pretty good game in the CL final last year. Hard to find a bigger game than that. Suarez is just a much better chance creator.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
While I agree that Bale doesn't necessarily fit in with the rest of the pieces of the team, he was gigantic last year for them in the Copa and Champion's League finals. He may not have the synergy with Ronaldo that Suarez has with Messi, but no question they aren't bringing home those trophies without him last year.
I mean, seriously, watch this goal again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWVrolNQ4RU
[SIZE=14.4444446563721px]I actually thought Bale was pretty good tonight. He didn't score, and he probably should have converted that header, but he was active and repeatedly got into good positions. Ronaldo, OTOH, was totally invisible in the second half and did basically nothing besides convert the penalty.[/SIZE]
Hopefully Suarez can avoid biting Chiellini this time.
EDIT: And to beat Zomp's joke, hopefully he can avoid racially abusing Evra, too.
EDIT: And to beat Zomp's joke, hopefully he can avoid racially abusing Evra, too.
sodenj5 said:
Unbelievable goal but this and the goal in the CL final (which was 95% made by Di Maria) are close to his two only big game moments. His record in big matches has been pretty poor overall.
I actually agree with coremiller though that he did well in terms of movement and getting into dangerous positions in this game, just couldn't finish the 3-4 chances that he had (none of which was a gimme by any means).
Also, a lot of that initial comment was more about how fantastic Suarez has been in the last few months than about Bale.
Bale score 22 goals last season and 17 this season. Of course they pale in comparison to Ronaldo but that is an excellent return for a winger who is playing with players who demand the ball more than he does.
Good for Juve.
Good for Juve.
How many of those were in 6-0 thrashings of Elche?Zomp said:
Scoring 17 goals needs to be viewed in the context of a team that has scored 151 in all competitions this season.
He won't have to because Messi will spend the match soccerly abusing Evra.SoxFanInCali said:
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Disagree. Barca updated their GK situation and struck gold twice with Bravo and TS. Real stupidly insist on playing Iker after smartly buying Navas. I mean, that goal for Juve today was a good shot, but a better keeper saves it.
Barca are much deeper at CB. Look no farther than Sergio's injury a few weeks ago. Masch steps up into the pivot, and Barca just coolly bring in Mathieu (who I admittedly have an odd obsession with) or their CB of the future in Bartra. Vermaelen went down before the season began and it didn't matter one whit. Varane has grown into a very nice player and Ramos continues to shine as a CB, but after that, it's Pepe, who's been shit and who else?
I will grant you that the FB are comparable. I'm a huge Marcelo fan, but Alba is a better defender and Marcelo is a more creative attacker. Carvajal is a better defender in his own half than Alves, but Alves is a tremendous presser and is a much better attacker.
Modric's injury was brutal for Real, but him and Sergio are equally as good although very different. Kroos/Isco/James is comparable to Rakitic/Iniesta. I would argue that the Barca guys are better at winning the ball back and when you attack with 3 out and out strikers (both teams), the MF has a bigger defensive responsibility. So, while James is the best creator of them all, that's not what the team really needs to operate at its highest level.
I won't disagree with you much that the starting forward lines are comparable. I think Lucho has done a masterful job of giving Barca structure while also letting them create and figure it out for themselves. I'm not sure how Carlo coaches them, but I'm convinced CR would just do it his way anyway. FWIW, Pedro is a much better sub than Hernandez.
coremiller said:
Agreed. Bale had a couple of excellent hits and was active, while CR was mostly quiet. I imagine this was in large part by design by Juve, and it begs the question, if Juve put the onus on Bale and he didn't convert, is it on him or is it on CR for not taking over? Probably somewhere in between with lots of credit to Juve as well.
M
MentalDisabldLst
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Enough about Real; how does Juve match up against Barca? Do they have the defense to stop FCB's three-headed hydra? Will they be playing more for possession or more for the counterattack?
This seems a bit like the WC final. On paper, and current form, Barca should run away with it. In the end, I suspect it might be a cagier affair.MentalDisabldLst said:
Already alluded to above is the time Evra will have against Messi. 1v1 it would be ugly, but Juve will take care to avoid such situations. Their CBs are solid, if not swift, and Lichtsteiner looks competent on the other side. They will get help (and teeth) from the midfield, especially Vidal and Marchisio tracking back. Expect a lot of tactical fouling.
There's no way Juve can hope to play possession football against Barca. Can anyone, really? They will pressure as they always do, and win the ball back consistently. Though I'm looking forward to seeing what Pirlo can do in this respect, I fear his lack of pace could be a real issue in this match-up.
I'll predict 2-0 Barca, with a late goal sealing a tight game.
I'd prefer 2-1 Juve, with Cheillini heading in in extra time.
Juve matches up with Barca better than just about any other team. Juve's defense is very organized and can defend well in 1 v. 1 situations. Lichtsteiner is a liability because he can get out of position sauntering forward, but Evra likes to stay home, so there's at least balance. Bonnucci/Chiellini/Barzagli are stellar in the middle, especially in the air. They're not the paciest CBs, but Juve's overall organization helps them. I don't expect them to play a high line like Bayern. Vidal, Pogba, and Marchisio are all box-to-box workhorses in the middle and are key to what Juve need to do. They can press or play in front of the D, possess, and initiate attacks. Generally, they need to make the game a numbers mismatch. Morata and Tevez are outstanding and can create without much help up front. They will likely need to hold play up to allow the MF to join attacks, or attack the space behind Barca's FBs when they inevitably attack. Pirlo will look to play balls to the forwards in behind the FBs at every opportunity.
It wouldn't be a popular move, but playing 3 CBs and keeping Pirlo out would be my strategy. A nominal 5-3-2 with Licht joining MF often and Pogba/Vidal/Marchisio (in pairs) taking runs in joining the attack would help Juve defend the wings and not sacrifice too much attack. The pace of this game will be thru the roof provided Juve press and attack (which I expect them to do) and Pirlo really doesn't offer much in defense. With Barca's insanely high pressing system, Pirlo would presumably be playing facing his own goal much of the game anyway, and wouldn't have tons of opportunities to play his incisive long/thru balls. I could see him starting, and coming off at half or at 60 minutes.
Barca will play their system and try to force Juve to adapt. They will press hard, especially on Evra (by Messi who hopefully will be a bit more active on D since it's the UCL Final and all) and Pirlo (Iniesta/Rakitic). Evra showed very little creativity yesterday and I'm sure Barca picked up on that. Barca's biggest obstacle is identifying how Juve will attack between the lines and utilize their MF. Tevez and Morata will drop in some, but Pogba, Vidal, and to a lesser extent Marchisio will also take turns being targets. When Barca's FBs push up, the forwards should run into space and that will open up room for the MFers to operate - the question then becomes can they take advantage or will Sergio and Rakitic shut them down. The Poba/Vidal/Marchisio vs. Rakitic/Iniesta/Sergio matchup is scintillating.
Neymar has a great opportunity to shine here. Evra won't give Messi many opportunities to run directly at the Juve CBs, but with Licht often out of position, the patented Messi diagonal ball should be on for the Brazilian. Juve will try to force Messi farther out wide and further back, so that this ball becomes harder to deliver, but the Bianconeri should already be practicing how to shut it down. As usual, Suarez will be making darting and bending runs to open up more room for the other 2.
This match will be a MF battle with tons of pressing. I see Juve struggling to work the ball out of the back and Barca getting frustrated against the Juve MF. Barca will look to get past those Juve MFers as directly and quickly as possible and Juve will look to get numbers against Barca on counters, especially on the Alves flank. This game comes down to a 1 v. 1 breakdown (Barca's wingers will fancy their chances against the Juve FBs), set pieces (both teams are outstanding both offensively and defensively), or just a piece of individual brilliance. With regard to the last point, there are playmakers all over the field. In fact, I would say the only player to which that DOESN'T apply to is Evra. Barca have shown all year that all their geniuses aren't one-man shows, but are at their best combining brilliantly. Juve don't have the same team-wide ability for genius combination, but Vidal, Pogba, Tevez, Morata, and to a lesser extent Marchisio and Pirlo are perfectly capable. They will get chances, just probably fewer than Barca. Then it comes down to finishing and who has the soccer gods looking down on them on the 6th.
Last but not least, Buffon is a beast. Definitely an advantage over TS. I'd rather see Bravo in there, but no way Barca changes up now.
Needless to say, I'm a bit excited.
It wouldn't be a popular move, but playing 3 CBs and keeping Pirlo out would be my strategy. A nominal 5-3-2 with Licht joining MF often and Pogba/Vidal/Marchisio (in pairs) taking runs in joining the attack would help Juve defend the wings and not sacrifice too much attack. The pace of this game will be thru the roof provided Juve press and attack (which I expect them to do) and Pirlo really doesn't offer much in defense. With Barca's insanely high pressing system, Pirlo would presumably be playing facing his own goal much of the game anyway, and wouldn't have tons of opportunities to play his incisive long/thru balls. I could see him starting, and coming off at half or at 60 minutes.
Barca will play their system and try to force Juve to adapt. They will press hard, especially on Evra (by Messi who hopefully will be a bit more active on D since it's the UCL Final and all) and Pirlo (Iniesta/Rakitic). Evra showed very little creativity yesterday and I'm sure Barca picked up on that. Barca's biggest obstacle is identifying how Juve will attack between the lines and utilize their MF. Tevez and Morata will drop in some, but Pogba, Vidal, and to a lesser extent Marchisio will also take turns being targets. When Barca's FBs push up, the forwards should run into space and that will open up room for the MFers to operate - the question then becomes can they take advantage or will Sergio and Rakitic shut them down. The Poba/Vidal/Marchisio vs. Rakitic/Iniesta/Sergio matchup is scintillating.
Neymar has a great opportunity to shine here. Evra won't give Messi many opportunities to run directly at the Juve CBs, but with Licht often out of position, the patented Messi diagonal ball should be on for the Brazilian. Juve will try to force Messi farther out wide and further back, so that this ball becomes harder to deliver, but the Bianconeri should already be practicing how to shut it down. As usual, Suarez will be making darting and bending runs to open up more room for the other 2.
This match will be a MF battle with tons of pressing. I see Juve struggling to work the ball out of the back and Barca getting frustrated against the Juve MF. Barca will look to get past those Juve MFers as directly and quickly as possible and Juve will look to get numbers against Barca on counters, especially on the Alves flank. This game comes down to a 1 v. 1 breakdown (Barca's wingers will fancy their chances against the Juve FBs), set pieces (both teams are outstanding both offensively and defensively), or just a piece of individual brilliance. With regard to the last point, there are playmakers all over the field. In fact, I would say the only player to which that DOESN'T apply to is Evra. Barca have shown all year that all their geniuses aren't one-man shows, but are at their best combining brilliantly. Juve don't have the same team-wide ability for genius combination, but Vidal, Pogba, Tevez, Morata, and to a lesser extent Marchisio and Pirlo are perfectly capable. They will get chances, just probably fewer than Barca. Then it comes down to finishing and who has the soccer gods looking down on them on the 6th.
Last but not least, Buffon is a beast. Definitely an advantage over TS. I'd rather see Bravo in there, but no way Barca changes up now.
Needless to say, I'm a bit excited.
Nice analysis, zozo. One problem for Juve is a lack of attacking width, they play a lot of CMs but no real wingers. I don't think it will hurt them going forward, but it does mean they have nobody to make the Barca FBs stay home. Bayern had this problem in the first leg which meant Alves got forward into space a lot, and as a result Alves had one of his best game in years. If Alves is free to play more like a right MF/winger than a fullback, Evra will have his hands full covering his overlaps when Messi comes inside.
The problem with playing 5-3-2 is that a) either the wing-back play further up and Messi will exploit the gap between the wing-back and third CB, which is always a problem area for 3-man defenses, or b) the wingback will stay too deep to solve (a) and Juve get outnumbered in midfield, with no outlet ball to the wing.
The key for Juve is that their non-Pirlo CMs are all so versatile and cover so much ground, much more so than Bayern's older, less mobile midfield with Alosno and Schweinstegier and Lahm. They have the ability to spring pacey counters from all sorts of unusual angles because any of Pogba/Marchisio/Vidal can pop up from deep in an unexpected position to support the attack, and Tevez is great at scurrying around and occupying defenders to create space for late-arriving midfielders. Busquests in particular will have his hands full figuring out which Juve midfielder he should be tracking at any given point.
The problem with playing 5-3-2 is that a) either the wing-back play further up and Messi will exploit the gap between the wing-back and third CB, which is always a problem area for 3-man defenses, or b) the wingback will stay too deep to solve (a) and Juve get outnumbered in midfield, with no outlet ball to the wing.
The key for Juve is that their non-Pirlo CMs are all so versatile and cover so much ground, much more so than Bayern's older, less mobile midfield with Alosno and Schweinstegier and Lahm. They have the ability to spring pacey counters from all sorts of unusual angles because any of Pogba/Marchisio/Vidal can pop up from deep in an unexpected position to support the attack, and Tevez is great at scurrying around and occupying defenders to create space for late-arriving midfielders. Busquests in particular will have his hands full figuring out which Juve midfielder he should be tracking at any given point.
I guess I was under the mistaken impression that Bayern had the best defense in Europe. Sounds like Juventus is pretty solid in back,
coremiller said:
I think this is the key for them defensively as well, and the reason why the issue with pinning back Barca's fullbacks may not be as serious. Against Real, they basically played two banks of four when out of possession with Marchisio and Pogba as wing midfielders on the outside of their first bank. Marchisio in particular was very disciplined with his positioning and, after one slip up in the first couple minutes, was fairly effective in neutralizing threats from Marcelo on that side, helping out against Ronaldo, and hindering any combination play between Ronaldo and Marcelo. Pogba played with discipline when out of possession but clearly had more freedom to roam when Juve had the ball. One interesting question is whether they would flip Marchisio and Pogba against Barca, since the larger threat comes down the defensive left (Messi/Alves) in that matchup.
With all of the FIFA hi-jinks over the past week, it would be easy to overlook that the final is Saturday (2:45 EST on Fox). If Barca wins, they become the 5th five time winner (Madrid, Milan, Liverpool, and Bayern). Juventus is playing for a third title and first since 1996. This is likely Buffon's final chance to lift the European Cup after losing one of the more dour finals to Milan via shootout in 2003. Evra, Morata, Pirlo, and Tevez would become two time winners with two different clubs with a win.
Huge blow to Juvé as Chiellini is out with a calf injury. I'd imagine the tactical prep just went out the window. Barzagli will slot into the defense with Pirlo probably now starting. I didn't envision the maestro in the starting 11 before this injury.
Surprisingly busy news day. First and foremost, Chiellini has been ruled out of the final, which is a HUGE loss to Juve. He is a world class defender and obviously knows how to agitate Suarez and get him off his game. Moreover, he is an excellent target on set pieces, so it really is a humongous loss. Wish it hadn't happened, even as a Barca fan. This essentially confirms that Juve will play with a back 4, including Bonucci and Barzagli in the middle, with mainstays Lichtsteiner and Evra at fullback. Juve have Ogbonna also on the squad (I believe Caceres is out), so perhaps he will start ahead of Barzagli, or maybe they play all 3, but I doubt that. Maybe in the 2nd half if they have a lead, but I suspect we are more likely to see Pereyra (offensive) or Sturaro (balanced) come on for Pirlo than a 3rd CB. Perhaps both?
Pedro has also signed a new agreement. On the one hand, I'm sure Barca is throwing a ton of $ at him because they cannot buy any new players this summer, Pedro is a fantastic player in his own right, and he is familiar with Barca as a La Masia graduate. On the other hand, I am surprised he didn't elect to go find a starting job elsewhere. He will get a solid number of starts, but he will always be behind SNM when it comes to the biggest matches. Perhaps they have a handshake agreement to let him go elsewhere next season? That would make sense to me.
There are 3 matchups/themes I will be watching very closely. First, I will be interested to see how Juve defend their right flank. Licht is not a stay at home defender and Barca runs a lot of attackers thru that area. Since Messi draws so much attention on the opposite side, you frequently see Neymar, Alba, Suarez, Rakitic and Iniesta overload that side. What Barca does better than any team I've ever seen, is switch the point of attack quickly and force the defense to maintain shape on the fly. I bet Juve's players ran laterally in defensive shape A LOT the past two weeks. Since Pirlo does not move much, I think he will be parked in the middle and be asked to clog up space. So, the interesting piece will be how Marchisio, Pogba, and Vidal defend. Will they mark man or zone? How will they transition into attack? If I'm Juve, I probably dedicate Marchisio to the Neymar flank since he's the least attacking minded one of the group and tell him to protect Licht. I then put Vidal slightly ahead of Pirlo, so that he's usually covering one of Rakitic or Iniesta. This also puts him in better positions to initiate attacks. Pogba plays off slightly towards Messi and denies him the ball as much as possible and be the weakside defender when the ball is on the Neymar flank. This way he can jump into attack, without the fear of Messi hounding him (Messi really doesn't spend much energy on defending) and Pogba is fast enough to get behind Alves. When Messi drops into a false 9 role and switches with Suarez, I think Juve keeps the same shape, but becomes incredibly narrow. Leaving Suarez out to their left flank with Evra cheating towards the middle.
The second thing I will be watching closely if and how Juve press Sergio. I could easily see Tevez asked to work hard and deny Sergio time on the ball. Sergio is underrated in his offensive acumen and is a pace setter for Barca's play out of the back. The problem for Juve is that Pique and Mascherano are both capable of taking space and bypassing Sergio on their own. Morata can probably harass one of them, but this is one area where Juve will have to give a bit. Nevertheless, taking Segio out of his comfort zone on offense should be considered a win for Juve. Alternatively, Juve could more aggressively sick Vidal on Sergio and have their forwards harass Barca's CBs, but Barca has so much more skill at those 3 positions than most teams, that it's probably not worth the effort. I could see Juve mixing it up to keep Barca off balance or adjusting between these strategies based on scoring and other circumstances (e.g. energy levels).
Lastly, how Barca press and what gaps it may leave is a key to the game. Iniesta and Rakitic are incredibly good at forcing turnovers from opposing defenders and midfielders. They press incredibly high. I have little doubt that Suarez will be keyed in on Pirlo and Rakitic/Iniesta will be adding pressure to force Pirlo to give the ball up quickly. Alba is the fastest and feistiest FB I have seen is some time, so I don't think there's much space on that flank. So, I expect the goal for Juve will be to attack the Alves flank repeatedly. Pogba, Vidal, Tevez, and Morata should be attacking that space nonstop, and try to pass around Segio and Pique (2 very tall players with telescopic legs) on the counter quickly. Tevez in particular, will try to draw the CBs out of position and then Juve will try to play the ball behind to Morata and a bombing forward Vidal.
Looking at this matchup, Barca are favorites. But, since Juve is a well-organized defense, has a midfield that can work incredibly hard on defense while still keeping Barca honest at the back, and has forwards who can create on their own and have a nose for goal, this is by no means a lopsided matchup. To me, the key tactical element will be how Juve's midfielders defend and how they transition to attack. Ultimately though, I expect Barca's attackers to grab multiple goals (at least one from SNM and another from Rakitic/Iniesta, and possibly a set piece), while Juve possibly nets 1 or 2 from Tevez brilliance or Morata class finishing.
Final prediction, 2-1 Barca. Rakitic, Suarez, and Vidal with the goals.
Pedro has also signed a new agreement. On the one hand, I'm sure Barca is throwing a ton of $ at him because they cannot buy any new players this summer, Pedro is a fantastic player in his own right, and he is familiar with Barca as a La Masia graduate. On the other hand, I am surprised he didn't elect to go find a starting job elsewhere. He will get a solid number of starts, but he will always be behind SNM when it comes to the biggest matches. Perhaps they have a handshake agreement to let him go elsewhere next season? That would make sense to me.
There are 3 matchups/themes I will be watching very closely. First, I will be interested to see how Juve defend their right flank. Licht is not a stay at home defender and Barca runs a lot of attackers thru that area. Since Messi draws so much attention on the opposite side, you frequently see Neymar, Alba, Suarez, Rakitic and Iniesta overload that side. What Barca does better than any team I've ever seen, is switch the point of attack quickly and force the defense to maintain shape on the fly. I bet Juve's players ran laterally in defensive shape A LOT the past two weeks. Since Pirlo does not move much, I think he will be parked in the middle and be asked to clog up space. So, the interesting piece will be how Marchisio, Pogba, and Vidal defend. Will they mark man or zone? How will they transition into attack? If I'm Juve, I probably dedicate Marchisio to the Neymar flank since he's the least attacking minded one of the group and tell him to protect Licht. I then put Vidal slightly ahead of Pirlo, so that he's usually covering one of Rakitic or Iniesta. This also puts him in better positions to initiate attacks. Pogba plays off slightly towards Messi and denies him the ball as much as possible and be the weakside defender when the ball is on the Neymar flank. This way he can jump into attack, without the fear of Messi hounding him (Messi really doesn't spend much energy on defending) and Pogba is fast enough to get behind Alves. When Messi drops into a false 9 role and switches with Suarez, I think Juve keeps the same shape, but becomes incredibly narrow. Leaving Suarez out to their left flank with Evra cheating towards the middle.
The second thing I will be watching closely if and how Juve press Sergio. I could easily see Tevez asked to work hard and deny Sergio time on the ball. Sergio is underrated in his offensive acumen and is a pace setter for Barca's play out of the back. The problem for Juve is that Pique and Mascherano are both capable of taking space and bypassing Sergio on their own. Morata can probably harass one of them, but this is one area where Juve will have to give a bit. Nevertheless, taking Segio out of his comfort zone on offense should be considered a win for Juve. Alternatively, Juve could more aggressively sick Vidal on Sergio and have their forwards harass Barca's CBs, but Barca has so much more skill at those 3 positions than most teams, that it's probably not worth the effort. I could see Juve mixing it up to keep Barca off balance or adjusting between these strategies based on scoring and other circumstances (e.g. energy levels).
Lastly, how Barca press and what gaps it may leave is a key to the game. Iniesta and Rakitic are incredibly good at forcing turnovers from opposing defenders and midfielders. They press incredibly high. I have little doubt that Suarez will be keyed in on Pirlo and Rakitic/Iniesta will be adding pressure to force Pirlo to give the ball up quickly. Alba is the fastest and feistiest FB I have seen is some time, so I don't think there's much space on that flank. So, I expect the goal for Juve will be to attack the Alves flank repeatedly. Pogba, Vidal, Tevez, and Morata should be attacking that space nonstop, and try to pass around Segio and Pique (2 very tall players with telescopic legs) on the counter quickly. Tevez in particular, will try to draw the CBs out of position and then Juve will try to play the ball behind to Morata and a bombing forward Vidal.
Looking at this matchup, Barca are favorites. But, since Juve is a well-organized defense, has a midfield that can work incredibly hard on defense while still keeping Barca honest at the back, and has forwards who can create on their own and have a nose for goal, this is by no means a lopsided matchup. To me, the key tactical element will be how Juve's midfielders defend and how they transition to attack. Ultimately though, I expect Barca's attackers to grab multiple goals (at least one from SNM and another from Rakitic/Iniesta, and possibly a set piece), while Juve possibly nets 1 or 2 from Tevez brilliance or Morata class finishing.
Final prediction, 2-1 Barca. Rakitic, Suarez, and Vidal with the goals.
I think Juve are in for a world of trouble. 2 strikers and an immobile CM are a nearly insurmountable problem versus Barca. Juve works about as hard as any team you'll see so I suspect they'll give it a go but I think Barca is just a horrible match up for them. Pirlo can't hide and I don't think even Vidal can make up the slack against all the movement of Barca. I think Juve's only realistic path is to play 4-5-1, sit Morata, and hope to find a goal somewhere. I don't think they can play a more open 4-4-2 style formation and cope with Barcelona.
teddykgb said:
I think Juve could actually give Barca a great game with a 4-4-2 with Vidal, Pogba, Marchisio, Sturaro/Pereyra in MF. But, as you said, this is the exactly wrong type of game for Pirlo and there's no way he doesn't start. The only way that doesn't bite Juve in the ass is if he's given time on the ball and he connects with smart Tevez/Morata runs. Barca never gives opponents time on the ball in the back though, even when they're not as talented as Pirlo.
teddykgb said:
"Immobile CM" is the most often repeated misnomer I've seen applied to Pirlo. I can't find the stats at work, but as I recall he was only outrun by Vidal in the second leg against Real. He's covered defensively by Vidal, Pogba, and Marchisio at any given time. He's not the liability that he would be in an Azzurri side.
Barca are clear favorites, there's absolutely no doubt. They're a horrible match for anybody. However, Juvé are about as bad a matchup as they could find. Chiellini out makes a world of difference, but Juvé's overall defensive organization (Lichtsteiner notwithstanding) is something they don't often encounter. I'd stack Juvé's overall midfield work rate and press against anybody in the world. Real seemed affronted that the upstart Italians would be so arrogant as to press them all over the pitch- I think Barca's mentality won't be far off. It's nothing they shouldn't overcome, but it's all Juvé's got.
Ogbonna shouldn't see the field if Barzagli is healthy enough. He's too much of a bonehead in his decision making and discipline.
It's cliché in Italian football, but the counter is what gives Juvé their straw.
SocrManiac said:
Come on, are we really going to argue that Pirlo is a presence at this point in his span? He's immobile, I don't feel it's necessary to claim otherwise. I don't particularly care how much ground he covered, I care about his ability to rapidly close down Barcelona players, and he can't do it. He's too old, it's nothing against a great player, but this game is very, very, very likely to pass him by. Maybe he can work a moment of magic to make up for what he won't be bringing, but he's not a presence in midfield without the ball. We have to be able to accept this.
Yes, other players in Juve's lineup are incredibly high work rate players, which is how they make Pirlo work in the first place. But I think you're way off in comparing Real and Barca, they're really not very similar teams. Juve are a perfect foil for Madrid in a lot of ways because Madrid will play a very open style and Juve can use work rate and solidarity to make it harder than usual for them. It then becomes a bit of a toss up as to whether the wide players are Madrid will beat a man and make a goal or two happen, but you can see how a result can be had against them. Barcelona really, really press the ball high up the pitch and do not leave gaps from which to spring counter attacks. It's very different from Madrid in that regard and I thought Juve always looked dangerous against Madrid because they could release Pogba into space and rely on Tevez' tenacity to try to get a foothold to spring forward. Tevez is going to be snuffed out here as Barca's higher line will force him deeper and deeper and Tevez doesn't have the speed to beat them over the top. He'll want it, but he's just not going to do that anymore.
But as I said, I think this is more a classic case of being outnumbered in midfield. Barca push their fullbacks up and sit Busquets in his role and they're basically 5 across with Messi, Neymar, and Suarez in front of them. Everyone cuts infield and moves around the ball and it pushes and pulls players out of position, but they've still got numbers behind the ball to press when they lose it. Pirlo isn't going to be spraying passes out if Juve win the ball deep in their own half.
To me, to beat this Barca team, you have to be able to force them to play deeper or hit them on the counter. They tilt the pitch so far forward and suffocate your attack. If Juve line up with 2 strikers and Pirlo I really don't think they're going to be able to meaningfully push the ball forward. This is football, you can always score from a set piece or a penalty, but I don't see a way out for Juve in spite of all their industriousness, the passes just won't be there. You can talk yourself into a wing player or speedster getting in behind their line but I just don't see that player in Juve's likely lineup.
M
MentalDisabldLst
Guest
I went looking for more detail on why Chiellini is out, and found that Paolo Maldini apparently comments on ESPNFC article comment threads.
MentalDisabldLst said:
He later confirms that he is not Maldini, but the idea of Maldini randomly commenting on espn news stories made me laugh.
Final today and not a single post?
Barcelona at -185 to win in 90 minutes and -325 to win overall.
Barcelona at -185 to win in 90 minutes and -325 to win overall.
The analysis in this thread has been fantastic about the run up to this game, especially for people (me) who don't get to watch as much as they would like.
edit: Had to send early because I got so caught up reading the thread the automatic lights in the hospital bathroom turned off. That's scary as shit.
Anyway, I have always had a soft spot for Juve going back to FIFA 97 when playing with Del Piero, Inzaghi, Zidane, Davids, Di Livio, Conte, and Birindelli. Barca has won enough. But with their top CB Chiellini out, Juve is going to have a much tougher time defending Suarez - Messi - Neymar. So, I will be rooting for Juve but think Barca's offense may be a little too much for the Italian squad.
edit: Had to send early because I got so caught up reading the thread the automatic lights in the hospital bathroom turned off. That's scary as shit.
Anyway, I have always had a soft spot for Juve going back to FIFA 97 when playing with Del Piero, Inzaghi, Zidane, Davids, Di Livio, Conte, and Birindelli. Barca has won enough. But with their top CB Chiellini out, Juve is going to have a much tougher time defending Suarez - Messi - Neymar. So, I will be rooting for Juve but think Barca's offense may be a little too much for the Italian squad.
For many years I've carried a complete dislike for Juventus - and not all of it connected to events in 1985 either - but I've found myself warming to them this season, probably due to the style of play they've committed to.
In normal circumstances I'd be firmly behind a forward line of Neymar-Suarez-Messi, which has probably the greatest attacking potential off all-time (in club football at least), but...I've just got a feeling for those in black & white stripes for some reason, even without Chiellini.
Quite honestly I am completely neutral on this I really don't mind who wins & I just want to see a spectacular game, maybe some controversy and a few hard tackles and a game that is deserving of the occasion.
In normal circumstances I'd be firmly behind a forward line of Neymar-Suarez-Messi, which has probably the greatest attacking potential off all-time (in club football at least), but...I've just got a feeling for those in black & white stripes for some reason, even without Chiellini.
Quite honestly I am completely neutral on this I really don't mind who wins & I just want to see a spectacular game, maybe some controversy and a few hard tackles and a game that is deserving of the occasion.
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