WayBackVazquez said:You think? If there's not a delay of game penalty at the 30 yard-line with a minute left, the game is over.
This.This team is an embarrassment
1. Gardner isn't the worst Michigan QB of the last 5 years.WayBackVazquez said:And while I get that Gardner was hardly the sole reason we lost today, I don't want to watch him quarterback this team for another year and a half. He's really really bad; probably the worst Michigan QB of my lifetime, and the difference between the way PSU got to play in the OTs was striking. Our staff is understandably afraid to put DG in a position to make mistakes, and that's one of the (many) things that cost us.
He's turned the ball over 13 times in six games against the 100th ranked schedule in the country, leading to 41 opponent points. He is the other team's best offensive weapon in nearly every game. He makes Forcier look as conservative as Reagan on cleats.bowiac said:1. Gardner isn't the worst Michigan QB of the last 5 years.
Because when they try to call simple, high school level pass plays for the QB, he turns them into an adventure. The play calling has become more and more conservative as DG has demonstrated he can't execute them. The unfortunate line of thinking is that they'd rather see if FItz and the blocking can out-talent the opposition, and break a run once in a while, or wait for the defense to make a play. Which is better than the alternative, ie Gardner throwing a pick six.twibnotes said:Regardless, it comes back to coaching bc if you think gardner's deficiencies as a passer are causing the other team to load up for the run, how do you defend the coaching staff for going back to the run-it-up-the-middle well over and over?
Definition of insanity yada yada. You're not going to win any games handing it off when your o-line is pushed 5 yards off the line of scrimmage consistently.Because when they try to call simple, high school level pass plays for the QB, he turns them into an adventure. The play calling has become more and more conservative as DG has demonstrated he can't execute them. The unfortunate line of thinking is that they'd rather see if FItz and the blocking can out-talent the opposition, and break a run once in a while, or wait for the defense to make a play. Which is better than the alternative, ie Gardner throwing a pick six.
Gardner will not be the starting QB by the end of this season, and the team will be much better off for it.
I think the key to the debate is the answer to this question: how much of gardner's poor performance is attributable to coaching?You guys act like they're trying to run some Stephen Hawking/Bobby Fischer adaptation of a west coast offense with Gardner. You're absolutely right that he's a square peg in a round hole, but the round hole just needs a peg that's capable of throwing a 7-yard pass without giving up a pick six. And by the way, he was touted as a pass-first QB; he wants to be a pass-first QB; it just turns out he sucks at it.
The suggestion that Forcier or any other replacement level FBS QB would be 2-4 is just laughable. DG has had basically three games that were net positive: ND, Central Mich, and Minny. CMU and minnesota were going down at home to us with bowiac at QB. While DG played well at home against Notre Dame, you can't say Forcier couldn't have done the same. Pretty sure I recall him playing a decent game against them once.
More likely is that the two near-losses to FCS-level teams would have been comfortable wins if it not for our embarrassing QB play. And much more likely that if our QB didn't give up 3 turnovers leading directly to 14 points for PSU (and likely costing us another 6 points from his ineptitude at around the PSU 30 yard-line in the 1st and 4th quarters), we win that game in regulation.
Besides the fact that you have no idea what you're talking about with respect to how long I've been following football, it's also not fairly common for a unit to be apoplectically awful at one part of the game and adequate at the other, no.WayBackVazquez said:I'm sure it does seem crazy to you, since you never played the game and have only been following football for about 4 years, but run blocking and pass blocking are distinct skills, and it's fairly common for a unit to be good at one and flawed at the other. The pass blocking has been fine; certainly about ten times better than the qb decision making.
I'm inclined to bet Michigan honestly, simply because I think Hoke will be embarrassed enough by this to nudge Borges into letting Gardner actually use his skillset. I'm expecting a surprisingly easy Michigan win next week, just in time for a bye week to practice power running against Michigan State.Dgilpin said:10.5 favorites vs Indiana next week , I think that's pretty laughable
Your consistency across subject matters is refreshing. Whether it's judicial philosophy, gambling, or running football offenses, I appreciate that you do a little reading (Barnwell's blog, Sagarin's ratings, Posner's books), adopt a smarter person's stance as your own, and then run with it, no matter how little you actually know about the subject. I expect a bowiac-led offense would have "a decided schematic advantage," just as any law school would be lucky to have you teach law and economics, credentials be damned.bowiac said:Besides the fact that you have no idea what you're talking about with respect to how long I've been following football, it's also not fairly common for a unit to be apoplectically awful at one part of the game and adequate at the other, no.
I decided that Gardner was competent based on watching him play. So did a lot of other people. You're the only one I know of who thinks he's worse than Nick Sheridan.WayBackVazquez said:"Considering" does not means blindly adopting. I'm reminded of your best bet of the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Barnwell says safeties never happen, I'm all over that!" Never mind that the statistics he cited were off by about 50%, and you didn't bother to check.
As to the other points, you're wrong, as usual. You decided sometime in the last year or two years (after reading a blog post, apparently) that a) Gardner was a very good QB, and b) that Hoke was "on the wrong side of history" because he doesn't prefer to run the spread. Since then, it's nonstop confirmation bias, and you use offensive line and coaching--notoriously difficult to evaluate statistically--as your favorite tools. But there are three games we're talking about with this team: Akron, Uconn, and PSU; Gardner has turned the ball over 10 times against that suck. If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and throws nothing but ducks, it may just be that your QB is a duck.
EDIT: also, serious question, why do you root for this team? You've never had a coach you liked at the helm of it, nor from what I can tell, liked a team overall. Why do you let two recent years you spent in Ann Arbor force you to root for such a shit show? There are so many ZOMG spread teams you have nearly as long a history with.
No, I haven't gone round the bend, that's the point. Despite all statistical evidence that demonstrates that Gardner has been a mess, you cite to "your eyes" to prove that it's actually the OL's fault. My eyes tell me otherwise. You then asked how could the OL could be adequate at pass-blocking, when the RUN GAME was bad. A pretty stupid thing to say, really.bowiac said:I decided that Gardner was competent based on watching him play. So did a lot of other people. You're the only one I know of who thinks he's worse than Nick Sheridan.
I evaluated offensive line play using my eyes - I never cited to statistics - I cited to free rushers. You're the one who suggested looking at FO and PFF data to evaluate it. You've gone round the bend here.
I don't like Hoke's stated preferred offensive philosophy because it causes Michigan to lose games, because the reasoning behind the spread is strong, and because the numbers strongly support its overall efficacy. I don't know what else to tell you. The blog post you reference is encapsulation of that point, not the genesis of it. I've been a spread fan a lot longer than this year. Not that it would matter if that blog post was the genesis - it doesn't address the substance of the points.
As for your continued attempts to belittle my Michigan fandom, I dunno what to tell you. I like the team because I spend a couple years going to school there, and I've been a fan since then. I didn't know 3 years enrolled at UM was the minimum amount of time required to be a fan. I don't know how to root for another team - my fandom doesn't work that way. I could just as easily ask why you root for Michigan with Gardner as the QB.
Like I said, I'd certainly be interesting in something to indicate that the skills that make you good at run blocking are unrelated to the skills that make you good as pass blocking. They're obviously not the same thing, but there's also a relationship.WayBackVazquez said:No, I haven't gone round the bend, that's the point. Despite all statistical evidence that demonstrates that Gardner has been a mess, you cite to "your eyes" to prove that it's actually the OL's fault. My eyes tell me otherwise. You then asked how could the OL could be adequate at pass-blocking, when the RUN GAME was bad. A pretty stupid thing to say, really.
Furthermore, we saw Gardner play some good football last year. Whether that was a function of the line, the playcalling or both, it demonstrates how wrong it is to pin this team's failures on him alone.Statistically, Gardner's been fine. He ranks 46th in Passer Rating, 36th in total QBR, 54th in adjusted QBR. That's not good, but that's not worse than Nick Sheridan. I think his talent is better than that - he's playing pretty close to the floor of his abilities because of schematic issues. He's not good, but he's the best thing the offense has going for it.
And yeah, sadly you're probably right. Hoke's leash is pretty long. I think the ship will ultimately be righted, and they'll routinely be in the mix for being the 2nd best team in the conference. That's probably too good to get fired. Sort of a poor man's Lloyd Carr.