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20% of the way there: How many games will this team win?

Discussion in 'Red Sox Forum' started by Lose Remerswaal, May 3, 2019.

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How many games will this team win?

Poll closed May 10, 2019.
  1. Fewer than 60

    0.9%
  2. 60 to 64

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. 65 to 69

    0.9%
  4. 70 to 74

    0.9%
  5. 75 to 79

    1.4%
  6. 80 to 84

    11.0%
  7. 85 to 89

    32.0%
  8. 90 to 94

    46.1%
  9. 95 to 99

    5.9%
  10. 100 or more

    0.9%
  1. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,626
    So we are 1/5th the way through the 2019 season, and I think we all know that we have no idea how good this team is going to be this year. They look great sweeping the A's and then blow a 2 run lead in the 9th inning against the White Sox due to an error and a 3 run walkoff against one of their best relievers.

    I'll do the math: 14 wins is a 70 win pace. Is this a 70 win team?

    It's time to take a stand. You've got a week to make your choice
     
  2. streeter88

    streeter88 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    933
    Not quite good enough to make the playoffs is my view, but they will compete. At this point nothing has united them yet, and they are blowing games due to errors and inability to get the timely hit. Today's 9th inning walk off surrendered was the second in a week, and both losses were at least partly due to errors by infielders. A 95 win team wins those games more than they lose them. A 90 win team is about the maximum I think we can expect.

    I hope the end of the season sees me eating my words because they won 95 and made the playoffs.
     
  3. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,626
    I think we feel pretty much the same about this team. Playoffs has to do as much with other teams' success as it does the Sox's success, so I won't make any predictions there
     
  4. adam42381

    adam42381 Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,843
    I have them in the 90-94 win category. They are better than they're playing, but not quite good enough to make the playoffs.
     
  5. Earthbound64

    Earthbound64 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    747
    Enough to make the 1-game Wild Card play-in.
    (I voted 85-89)
     
  6. donutogre

    donutogre Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,526
    i went with 85-89, and could see them getting to the higher end of that. I think they're obviously better than the early April record would indicate, but those games are in the books and count.

    There are a number of key players struggling who might spend the entire season doing so (JBJ, Sale are probably chief among those), which could make things a bit tough.

    Given that the Sox have to play NY and Tampa Bay so much this season, it's going to be hard to leapfrog them both to the top of the division. I'm glad they're more competitive now, but I think the combo of a tough division, a pretty big hole, and some key underperformance will make this season ultimately a downer.
     
  7. charlieoscar

    charlieoscar Member

    Messages:
    1,339
    One thing about the Red Sox so far this season is that 16.55% of the runs they have scored have been unearned, which is slightly more than twice the MLB rate, 7.33%. When one uses pythagenpat (supposedly more accurate than the straight pythagorean method of estimating a team's performance based on runs scored and allowed), the projection is currently 68.7 wins. If one eliminates unearned runs, scored and allowed, the projection drops to 62.6 wins.

    Also, in ten out of the Red Sox's 32 games this season, they have scored three or fewer runs. They are 1-9 in those games while their opponents are 2-7 in similar games. From 2010 through 2017, home teams scoring 0 to 3 runs had an overall winning percentage of .3518 and visiting teams, .2250, or .2830 combined.

    If Red Sox pitchers keep up their current rate of allowing home runs, the club's all-time record for a season will be challenged. Two of their Gold Glove winning outfielders look like they may not repeat. The club is basically 20% of the way through the regular season and the most wins they have from a starter is two.

    Is this club as bad as it has been looking? No. Will this club transform itself into a replica of last year's club at the flip of a switch? No, but the longer it takes to straighten things out, the lower its expediencies will be. It looks like an opportunity for the front office to throw in the towel and hope some of the highly-salaried players opt out and they can start a rebuild (or trade some of them before the season ends). Betts is a problem. Can the club afford to give him what he wants? If they blow up the team to free money, will he still want to stay here? You have a club with two catchers (one who can hit a little and the other who has a reputation for handling pitchers); one first baseman with more home runs than singles and another who doesn't look like he belongs in the majors; a plethora of second basemen (all of which, except the one who probably should retire, mostly utility men; an okay shortstop, who's bat makes up for his average fielding; a left fielder who can't quite turn the page to be an all-star (and who they probably won't spend a lot of money to re-sign down the road); a center fielder who doesn't look like he belongs in the majors this year; a star right fielder who wants to be the highest paid player in the game; a designated hitter who is very good but who can opt out; five starting pitchers who have combined for five victories so far this season; and an interesting looking bullpen mix. In other words, a team I think should seriously be considered in a state for a rebuild.
     
  8. RIrooter09

    RIrooter09 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,371
    85-89 and we just miss the WC2 spot.
     
  9. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

    Messages:
    110
    Are you seriously lumping Sale in with JBJ? Sale at least deserves some benefit of the doubt, he’s looking better his last couple starts and has several years of being an elite player to go back on. Jackie is who he is at this point, I think the best we can hope for is like .215 with some pop.
     
  10. pokey_reese

    pokey_reese Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    13,015
    I went 85-89. I think that they are clearly better than they have been to this point, but I don't think that their record is 'fluky' or that every player is likely to improve individually, so projecting what would be a 90-win pace for the rest of the season seems reasonable. The sample sizes are generally large enough now that they should be changing our expectations of full season numbers, if they differ greatly from what we thought in the preseason, and our run differential and batted ball outcomes suggest that our losses aren't just from unlucky sequencing, etc..

    For the pitchers, strand rate, HR/FB rate, BABIP, etc. are all within normal ranges by now, and most of the batting categories that we would look to for outliers are regressing as well. Sale's velo and pitch usage remain off, so we can't count on him being his old self at this point (though he could still turn it around), JBJ's second half last year might have been a mirage, JD likely will not make another run a triple crown (but still play at a high level), etc.. Let's face it, if you win 108 games and a World Series, a lot of things had to break right, and regressing from that to being 'just' a 90-95 win team and then booking a bunch of early loses is a recipe to not repeat.

    I just want them to go on a few good runs once the weather warms up, so that I can enjoy the season through September.
     
  11. AB in DC

    AB in DC OG Football Writing Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    5,564
    I find it easier to think about rest-of-season record and then back into the win total. So if I say that ROS will be on a 90-win pace, that ends up (adding back the 14-18) at 86 wins.
     
  12. Pandarama

    Pandarama lurker

    Messages:
    63
    XKCD POV:
    [​IMG]
     
  13. DirtyWater90

    DirtyWater90 Research Assistant

    Messages:
    110
    86 wins would be such a massive disappointment with this roster.
     
  14. Sandy Leon Trotsky

    Sandy Leon Trotsky Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    2,164
    90 and a WC away game against the MFY’s.
     
  15. donutogre

    donutogre Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,526
    I mostly just meant based solely on what we've seen. Yeah, Sale has the track record to suggest he'll turn it around. But, sometimes even excellent pitchers just have down years. I don't think Sale will end the season with a 7 ERA, but I also don't think it's a forgone conclusion he'll get it under 4, either.
     
  16. scotian1

    scotian1 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    14,157
    To reach 90 wins they have to play a little better than .580 ball. Are the capable of that? Sure they are but several players are really going to have to pick up their level of play to do so.
     
  17. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    16,222
    I think he meant, "ignited," not "united."
     
  18. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,743
    I went 90-94. I can see a scenario where it's less than 80. If they're on a 85-86 win pace near the trade deadline and 5 or 6 games back of the 2nd WC, I could see them becoming sellers.
     
  19. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    16,222
    According to this article - https://tht.fangraphs.com/from-the-outhouse-to-the-penthouse-and-vice-versa/ - of the teams that have gone "first to worst" in history, the biggest winning% fall is the St. Louis Maroons, who went from a 94-19 record to 36-72 record (winning% fall of .499) in 1885 and the 1915 Philadelphia Athletics, who finished 43-109, 368 percentage points lower than the prior year.

    The Red Sox were a historic team last year. I think they continue to be a historic team. While they won't reach the depths of the Maroons and the Athletics, the modern day record appears to be the Reds, who in 1981 played to split seasons of 35-21 and 31-21 (66-42, a combined winning% of .611). In 1982, the Reds ended up 61-101, and their winning% fall season over season was -.234.

    If the Red Sox win 69 games, their winning % would be .426, which means that they will have dropped -.241 year over year. That would be a modern record.

    Go get it dun, boys. One more for the record books.
     
  20. montoursvillefan

    montoursvillefan Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    667
    Piling on with scotian 1 here. You folks do numbers better than me, some good analysis up thread. But being a Sox fan, I am always hopeful and 90 - 94 us all the hope I've got, wild card game and see what follows. .580 is doable I think.
     
  21. Minneapolis Millers

    Minneapolis Millers Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    1,922
    The talent of a 100-win team is still there. We've got 80% of the season left. This team can get hot at any time, win 90+, make the playoffs, and roll.

    I'm not flushing the season on May 3.
     
  22. YTF

    YTF Well-Known Member Silver Supporter SoSH Member

    Messages:
    9,535
    I went with 90-94. I'm hoping that keeps them in the hunt for a wild card slot but that may require both WCs coming out of the east and I'm not sure that happens. They'll have to go 76-54 the rest of the way to hit 90 wins, so there is some serious work that needs to be done. There should be enough talent offensively If they can get it together. The bullpen has been better than we expected to this point but has been called upon heavily in the early going. The starting pitching has been better of late, but Sale is nowhere near the ace we need him to be and right now the number 5 spot is a crap shoot. Granted it is for many teams, but when your lock down ace has been as questionable as Sale has been and you need to go 22 games over .500 the rest of the way to hit 90 wins it's going to be uphill all the way.
     
  23. ookami7m

    ookami7m Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,568
    Went 90-94 but leaning towards the low end of that. Will be in the push for a WC spot at worst.
     
  24. simplicio

    simplicio Well-Known Member Gold Supporter

    Messages:
    1,320
    Let us note that we are currently 6.5 games back on the Rays. They've played 4 games against teams with a >.500 record, to 14 games against teams that are the worst in their respective divisions. We have a 3-2 record against them. There is 80% of the season to go. The sky has not fallen.
     
    #24 simplicio, May 4, 2019
    Last edited: May 4, 2019
  25. nattysez

    nattysez Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    3,486
    After today, they've got the Orioles at Fenway South and then the Mariners, who are currently on a 6-game losing streak. With tongue planted firmly in cheek and hand over heart, I'd note that the Manila Metric would say they are in good shape to continue the current pace they are on (7 of last 10) for another week or so. RIP.

    Put another way, they should be above .500 fairly shortly (famous last words), and I assume last night's game improved the pythag quite a bit.
     
  26. maufman

    maufman Anderson Cooper x Mr. Rogers Staff Member Dope Gold Supporter

    Messages:
    24,449
    If they play .600 ball the rest of the way, they’ll end up in the low 90s.
     
  27. Lose Remerswaal

    Lose Remerswaal Leaves after the 8th inning Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,626
    25% of the way there now, and the Ayes seem to be having it
     
  28. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    16,222
    The other piece of the equation is that despite the fast start by several teams, there are currently only 6 teams with records over .500 and the Sox are currently tied for the last WC spot.

    TB, who is 16-8 against teams under .500, has some key players banged up and still has something like 31 games to play vs. MFY and BOS. Minnesota is17-5 against teams below .500, and while it has a favorable schedule given its division still has 16 games v CLE, 6 games v BOS, 7 games v TB, and I don't think has gone to the West Coast to play. It will be interesting to see if MIN can sustain things but they still have19 games v CHW, 14 games v DET, and 17 games v KC.
     
  29. bsj

    bsj Renegade Crazed Genius SoSH Member

    Messages:
    17,059
    The home/road splits have also been flipped.for.the Sox as opposed.to NY or Tampa. Not a huge difference but when you boil it down, despite that start, the division remains there for the taking IMO.
     

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