Sox Big Picture: Roster, Contracts, and Moving Parts Options

[zenter]

It looks like a lot of the moving parts of this offseason, and the next couple, are a more inter-dependent than in the past, partly because of money coming off the books and players becoming free agents in the next couple years. It doesn't help that the development pipeline doesn't have many immediate high-impact players during this same time period.

Position	Player	2010 Age	2010	2011	2012		Notes
C	TOTAL		10.7	0	0
	Victor Martinez	31	7.7				Plays 1B
	Jason Varitek	38	3
1B	TOTAL		12.4	12.3	12.3
	Kevin Youkilis	31	9.4	12.3	12.3		Club Option 2013; plays 3B
	Casey Kotchman	27	3	Arb4			2010 based on 2009
2B	TOTAL		3.8	5.8	8.3
	Dustin Pedroia	26	3.8	5.8	8.3		Club Option 2015
3B	TOTAL		12.5	0	0
	Mike Lowell	36	12.5
SS	TOTAL		6.5	5	1.5
	Marco Scutaro	34	6	5	1.5		Club opt 2012 @ 6, Player @ 3, buyout @ 1.5
	Jed Lowrie	26	0.5	Arb1	Arb2		Can play 3B, 2B
LF	TOTAL		2.3	0	0
	Jeremy Hermida	26	2.3	Arb3			2010 based on 2009
CF	TOTAL		0.5	0	0
	Jacoby Ellsbury	26	0.5	Arb1	Arb2
RF	TOTAL		14.5	14
	JD Drew	34	14	14
	Josh Reddick	23	0.5				Assuming ML min
DH	TOTAL		13	0
	David Ortiz	34	13				Club option 2011 (likely decline)
SP	TOTAL		28.2	21.1	17.6
	Josh Beckett	30	12.1
	Jon Lester	26	3.8	5.8	7.3		Club option 2014
	Daisuke Matsuzaka	29	8.3	10.3	10.3		FA 2013
	Clay Buchholz	25	0.5	Arb1	Arb2
	Tim Wakefield	43	3.5	5			Assuming max numbers
RP	TOTAL		10.9
	Jonathan Papelbon	29	6.3	Arb3
	Hideki Okajima	34	2	Arb2	Arb3		Speculated 2010 cost
	Scott Atchison	34	0.5				Club option 2011
	Junichi Tazawa	24	1.1	1.2
	Manny Delcarmen	28	0.5	Arb2	Arb3		2010 based on 2009
	Daniel Bard	25	0.5		Arb1		Assuming ML min
Other	TOTAL		10.8
	Alex Gonzalez		0.5
	Julio Lugo		9.3
	Billy Wagner		1
	GRAND TOTAL		126.1	58.2	39.7

Things to Address, by Year

2010 Team
LF, SS (assuming Lowrie doesn't pan out) (updated, per Scuatro signing)

2011 Team
C, 3B, DH, 2 SP

According to my calculations, the 2011 team, including vague guesses and estimates for minimums and Arbs, will be at a baseline of about 65M, excluding LF. That's essentially 75M/y to throw at extensions and new contracts. With 6-7 major open slots, it's not a lot of money (especially if 1 SP and the LF take 30-40M combined).

Positional Thoughts
C: Mauer somehow? Martinez as fallback, with Mark Wagner or Luis Exposito hopefully ready to be backup?
3B: One of the Adrians? Lowrie? Move Youk (thus reducing his value)?
LF: If Holliday/Bay doesn't work... Crawford? Trade?
SP: Will Beckett sign an extension? Will Halladay or some other elite SP somehow land with the Sox? Can we wait-and-see with DiceK, Clay, and Bard?

Other Considerations
- Halladay, Adrian Gonzalez or some other blockbuster trade

So... If you were Theo, what would your plan of attack be to be competitive in 2010, 2011, and 2012, without selling the farm (literally) or getting way beyond 150M/year?

EDIT: Note - not including all the tiny deals in the above chart, but I am including them in my estimate of 65M.

EDIT 2: Scutaro, Atchison signings. With six positions (LF, 2 SP, 3B, C, DH) to deal with for 2011, and something like 65-70M spoken for, Theo will need to be creative, especially considering how expensive top-line OFs and SPs are.

This post has been edited by zenter: Dec 7 2009, 12:47 PM

[Adirondack jack]

No, it's don't trade Clay Buchholz for Miguel Cabrera. If you want to trade for Cabrera, I'm all for it, but don't give up a guy who is going to be anywhere from very valuable to extremely valuable to get him. There's probably ~30 players I would trade Buchholz for (straight-up), but Miguel Cabrera (which encompasses not only his hitting prowess but also his defensive value, guaranteed contract, and obvious make-up concerns)is not one of them.

This sure seems timely Fangraphs: Miguel Cabrera's trade value
The conclusion:
edit: spelling

(...amarshal2' post was from the 3rd base thread...)

I agree, and think that because Detroit have some serious economic issues (as a region and as a big league club) with multiple toxic contracts, moving Buchholz for Miggy is not necessary if Detroit in fact does need to move a fair albeit large contract. However, I would be interested in seeing your list of 30 that you would see fit to move Buchholz for, if Miggy isn't on that list, it seems that number is relatively high.

Kind of along those same lines, I can't see any scenario where in order to acquire Halladay the cost needs to be Buchholz. It looks like a few frontline pitchers will be available in next year's free agent class. Why on earth would Theo surrender his prized asset for Halladay now? Halladay is a very good bet for the next 5 years, and all that, but I wouldnt entertain trading Buchholz for one year of Halladay with the opportunity to negotiate a deal that would essentially be at open market rate, particularly when considering Doc's age.

My point is that, like many here, I am not completely convinced that Buchholz has all the makings to reach or even approach his potential, nevertheless it would be a very large mis-step if Clay's career does blossom, and for that reason alone, I would only move Buchholz for very few players around the league.

At the front of this short list has to be Hanley Ramirez. The Daily News blurb basically was calling the Marlin front-office one of the baseballs 10 largest turkeys in 2009, because they would entertain the idea of trading baseballs top asset. Well, that label seems over-the-top. While I can see the argument that you never trade away a star, especially as they enter their prime years, it should also be noted that any deal to acquire Hanley for the next 5 years at 12.9 AAV could basically get the Marlins to their new stadium (2012) in a competitive state, both financially and from a baseball talent point of view, with what they could rightfully expect in return. Sure, Hanley's current contract is very attractive to most MLB teams. Remember Florida is not most MLB teams, though, look at their spending since 1993(link). If other reports are to be trusted, it sounds like both Josh Johnson and Dan Uggla are available as well. Now, I wouldnt put Uggla at anywhere close to JJ's level, Uggla's bat is good enough to not completely forget about if moving to third or LF is a viable option. Obviously, any deal for Hanley and/or Josh Johnson would make most cringe with it's cost. But even moreso than a Adrian Gonzalez deal, where we're talking about an elite bat who plays first base, dealing with Florida, I'd be more than fine with sending both Buchholz and Bard along with basically their choice of 3-4 minor leaguers they want from our system; if there's a chance that the young pitcher and shortstop can be put together in a package.

[Paul M]

It's refreshing to see a big picture thread but it seems to have gotten lost amidst the rest. Mega threads are not desirable but a thread like this should have a place. What does this team look like in 2 years?

Looking at the short-term future 2011-2012, you could see a potential major restructuring of the roster and I am sure Theo is up at night wondering how to get this team's talent base back on track.

The Sox really lack an under 30 middle of the order hitter and that to me is the overall key. They have Pedroia and Ellsbury for the next few years but who will be the power?

Or do they tilt the scales toward run prevention in a way that totally bucks conventional wisdom?

I think this off-season will either be a complete snooze-fest or they will start this process a year early and make 2-3 trades for the next championship club.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Well, they could empty the farm for a middle of the order bat and/or another top of the rotation starter, they could spend a ton of money and bring in a big bat, some defensive help and/or a versatile guy who helps in multiple areas (Figgins), or they could do a combination of all of that. I have a hard time seeing Theo standing pat this off season and allowing a more pronounced roster turn over a year or two from now. It goes against the way they've built rosters in the past.

The goal usually seems to be to refresh the roster from time to time, but to have a constant stream of new talent moving through the organization (via trade/free agency/farm) so that there is never a year where they don't feel they have a shot to compete for a playoff spot. Sometimes that means taking risks on health and reclamation projects (2006 and 2009 come to mind). Hopefully that means 2010 will be similar to 2007 and we'll see them spend some dollars on the free agent market (Bay/Holliday/Beltre/Figgins?) and get some big years from young guys (Buchholz/Bard/Lowrie?).

This post has been edited by Snodgrass'Muff: Nov 30 2009, 03:05 PM

[yecul]

It's refreshing to see a big picture thread but it seems to have gotten lost amidst the rest. Mega threads are not desirable but a thread like this should have a place. What does this team look like in 2 years?

Looking at the short-term future 2011-2012, you could see a potential major restructuring of the roster and I am sure Theo is up at night wondering how to get this team's talent base back on track.

The Sox really lack an under 30 middle of the order hitter and that to me is the overall key. They have Pedroia and Ellsbury for the next few years but who will be the power?

Or do they tilt the scales toward run prevention in a way that totally bucks conventional wisdom?

I think this off-season will either be a complete snooze-fest or they will start this process a year early and make 2-3 trades for the next championship club.

Totally agree. I have no idea which direction they will choose, but I fully expect an all-or-nothing offseason. They will ink Holliday and Beltre and Scutaro along with obtaining Halladay or they will figure out some platoons and cheap/short options. Nothing in between. Just signing 1 type-a makes zero sense. Maybe they retain Bay and go for a Beltre.

The draft picks, the quality, and the pending contracts (Beckett) are what is driving this uncertainty for me. Do they want to have Halladay or Beckett for the next 4+ years? Do they have a shot at a Mauer or Pujols hitting the open market? What is really being asked for these free agents? Etc.

This offseason has been and will probably remain boring. But no matter what it will be really interesting because it will signal their plans for the future. I think they lay low.

[gammoseditor]

The strength of next years FA class could be a reason the Red Sox and other teams aren't looking to give out a lot of money this offseason. The following players are, as of now, all FA after this year:

Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Jayson Werth
Carl Crawford
Roy Halladay
Cliff Lee
Josh Beckett
Derek Jeter
Carlos Pena
Javier Vazquez
Brandon Webb
Adam Dunn
Derek Lee
Mariano Rivera

[Buzzkill Pauley]

It's refreshing to see a big picture thread but it seems to have gotten lost amidst the rest. Mega threads are not desirable but a thread like this should have a place. What does this team look like in 2 years?

Looking at the short-term future 2011-2012, you could see a potential major restructuring of the roster and I am sure Theo is up at night wondering how to get this team's talent base back on track.

The Sox really lack an under 30 middle of the order hitter and that to me is the overall key. They have Pedroia and Ellsbury for the next few years but who will be the power?

Or do they tilt the scales toward run prevention in a way that totally bucks conventional wisdom?

I think this off-season will either be a complete snooze-fest or they will start this process a year early and make 2-3 trades for the next championship club.

The big question to be answered beyond 2010 is whether to build for a specific window of opportunity or to stagger expirations for the team's guaranteed contracts.

The combined 2004/05 offseasons showed a good example of building to a specific window, and it looks as though 2010/2011 will be similar. When multiple A- and B-Type players hit free agency, it's a great time to rebuild the farm system, with better draft position than would be possible by seeding alone.

However, although the Sox picked up some really good prospects in 2005-6 using picks generated from losing major-league players, the trades for Crisp and Beckett/Lowell also show how difficult and chancy it can be to rebuild a whole team at the same time, at the major league level. Shoppach and that other guy - wasn't he a shortstop? - have provided a pretty good value to their new teams, too.

It looks like Theo may be starting to follow a different model for the team after 2010/2011, based on the term of extensions for the "new core" expiring sequentially in 2013 (Youks), 3014 (Lester), and 2015 (Pedroia). However, it's hard to say for sure whether that's the case, though, until some additional guaranteed contracts are put on the books to fill in around those guys.

Next offseason will be fascinating, but I think this offseason is just as interesting -- if only because the economy and Buchholz' emergence down the stretch run provides a perfect opportunity to trade for a top-10 hitter (Cabrera, Gonzalez, Hanley, etc.) and remove some of the risks associated with rebuilding the lineup all-at-once through free agency signings.

[zenter]

The big question to be answered beyond 2010 is whether to build for a specific window of opportunity or to stagger expirations for the team's guaranteed contracts.

(Bump for Scutaro)

All indications are towards the staggered approach, and the Scutaro signing backs this up. The problem is this: the team can't fill every position with Scutaros and compete in the toughest baseball division.

The Sox have been drafting more high-schoolers for the past couple years, so they are building a longer-term pipeline whereby ML-ready players will emerge 1-2 at a time. The problem is that 2010 (and possibly 2011) look like they will be fallow years in converting draftees into guys on the 25-man roster. This makes the expiring contracts of Lowell, Ortiz, Victor Martinez, and Beckett loom larger, as well as the hole in LF and the fact that Wake is probably going to deliver for about 60-75% of the next two seasons. With no Pedroias, Lesters, or Ellsburys to count on, that means the Sox need to invest 70M in high-impact places without compromising either on player development or money.

Further, if players are slow in their development (Anderson), or turn into Naehrings (Lowrie), unexpected roster holes need to be filled through FA, and the best FAs want long (6-10 year) guaranteed contracts. Given the high-upside pipeline, but the low chance of conversion in the next couple years, Theo has a tough road in navigating 2011-2013 without poisoning 2014-beyond.