Theo Epstein in 2004: How'd He Do? (Intro) Options

[CaptainLaddie]

So, in the spirit of Snodgrass'Muff's series, I thought I'd also start a series of threads that is more...retrospective. This is the 5th offseason since the Red Sox won the 2004 World Series (ahhhh, still nice to say). I thought it would be interesting to go back and look at that offseason and see the moves that the team made after what was the greatest season in Red Sox history (sorry, 1967).

Here were the "major" (heh) moves that happened that offseason.

Nov 29, 2004 - Signed Doug Mirabelli - 2/3
Dec 8, 2004 - Signed Matt Mantei - 1/750k
Dec 13, 2004 - Drafted Adam Stern in 2004 Rule 5 Draft
Dec 17, 2004 - Signed John Halama - 1/1.5
Dec 17, 2004 - Signed David Wells - 2/8 + a lot more
Dec 19, 2004 - Signed Edgar Renteria 4/40
Dec 20, 2004 - Traded Dave Roberts to the San Diego Padres. Received David Pauley, Jay Payton, Ramon Vazquez and cash.
Dec 22, 2004 - Signed Matt Clement 3/25.5
Dec 22, 2004 - Signed Wade Miller 1/1
Dec 24, 2004 - Signed Jason Varitek 4/40
Jan 17, 2005 - Signed Geremi Gonzalez (couldnt find data)
Jan 27, 2005 - Traded Doug Mientkiewicz and cash to the New York Mets. Received Ian Bladergroen (minors).
Feb 11, 2005 - Signed Roberto Petagine 1/2.75
Mar 30, 2005 - Traded Byung-Hyun Kim and cash to the Colorado Rockies. Received Charles Johnson and Chris Narveson, released Charles Johnson.

Additionally, these were three players who left that offseason via free agency and the picks that were received (and the players taken with those picks).

Orlando Cabrera granted Free Agency - (LAAoA) 4/32 - Pick recieved netted Ellsbury
Derek Lowe granted Free Agency. - (LA) 4/36 - Pick recieved netted Craig Hansen
Pedro Martinez granted Free Agency. - (NYM) 4/52.5 - Pick received netted Clay Buchholz

Other players who left:
Gabe Kapler signed with Yomiuri Giants
Mike Myers signed with St. Louis Cardinals (but was later traded back to the Sox for two useless prospects)

I'll start this series off later this week. I hope this generates some interesting discussions looking back at what has happened since that offseason.

[TheoShmeo]

That list is quite damning.

Theo followed up the Greatest Season in Sox History with, perhaps, the Worst Offseason in Sox History.

If anything, it makes what they achieved in 2007 all the more amazing.

This post has been edited by TheoShmeo: Nov 19 2009, 08:24 AM

[smastroyin]

That list is quite damning.

Theo followed up the Greatest Season in Sox History with, perhaps, the Worst Offseason in Sox History.

If anything, it makes what they achieved in 2007 all the more amazing.

They went from 98 wins to 95 wins and were a CH away from winning the division in 2005. How can that be the worst offseason in history? Just in the 1990's I can pick out 6 off-seasons that were clearly worse.

The one thing he really could have done better is invent some kind of gene therapy to make Schilling and Foulke healthy and strong for the season, I guess.

[TheoShmeo]

They went from 98 wins to 95 wins and were a CH away from winning the division in 2005. How can that be the worst offseason in history? Just in the 1990's I can pick out 6 off-seasons that were clearly worse.

The one thing he really could have done better is invent some kind of gene therapy to make Schilling and Foulke healthy and strong for the season, I guess.

Having a good season doesn't compel the answer that the prior off sesaon was also good. The remaining core from the 2004 season was good enough to cover up the series of moves that Theo made. How many of the moves on that list looks good in retrospect?

That having been said, my point about it being perhas the worst offseason in Sox history was hyperbole and undoubtedly not accurate. But however that offseason season ranks, the juxtapostion between the on field results in 04 and the off season performance is pretty striking.

[yecul]

The offseason should be defined by the moves made during it. Not the holdovers from previous years. While his rhetoric is too strong the point stands. That's not a very good list in hindsight.

I don't think we should worry about Theo feeling bad or whatever. I imagine he would freely admit to having misses on that list. It's ok to comment.

[smastroyin]

The offseason should be defined by the moves made during it. Not the holdovers from previous years. While his rhetoric is too strong the point stands. That's not a very good list in hindsight.

I don't think we should worry about Theo feeling bad or whatever. I imagine he would freely admit to having misses on that list. It's ok to comment.

Yeah, that's not really what I'm worried about. My point is that when you start with a 98 win team that just won the World Series, you have a different agenda than in other seasons. No?

Contextually, it was a pretty rotten off-season for almost everyone if your only lens is the guys signed in 2004/5. The big free agents that signed had some ok to good seasons in 2005 but largely busted over the course of their contracts. Should we ignore that the Mets paid $39 million for Pedro to do nothing in 2006-2008 and say that the Sox would have won the World Series in 2005 if they had him or something like that? (People still make this leap)

I don't know, I think overall he did the job. Unless you had a magic 8 ball there was no way to predict Foulke's complete uselessness and it seemed that Schilling's prognosis was to come back strong at the All-Star Break. Is it Theo's fault or the doctor's fault that he wasn't as strong as they had hoped? I don't know. Criticism is fine but I don't find the strategy applied in 2004/5 to be all that appalling. Things didn't work out for these guys, that happens. They needed to save some money over the course of the next couple years and they wanted to accumulate draft picks which from the 2005 and 2006 drafts has worked out pretty well. I don't even find it particularly bad in terms of executing strategy and picking gambles based on what they knew at the time.

[bosockboy]

In retrospect he did great in that he didn't fall in love with The Idiots and over the course of two offseasons let them go. In three years the team was completely rebuilt and the team that won in Denver bore little resemblance to the 2004 team, save for Manny/Papi and an older, all guts version of Schilling.

[yecul]

I don't follow how Schilling or Foulke fits into this. But regardless I can't agree that we can't comment on decisions.

No big deal though. This thread isn't for you. There are plenty of others.

[philly sox fan]

Nov 29, 2004 - Signed Doug Mirabelli - 2/3
Dec 8, 2004 - Signed Matt Mantei - 1/750k
Dec 13, 2004 - Drafted Adam Stern in 2004 Rule 5 Draft
Dec 17, 2004 - Signed John Halama - 1/1.5
Dec 17, 2004 - Signed David Wells - 2/8 + a lot more
Dec 19, 2004 - Signed Edgar Renteria 4/40
Dec 20, 2004 - Traded Dave Roberts to the San Diego Padres. Received David Pauley, Jay Payton, Ramon Vazquez and cash.
Dec 22, 2004 - Signed Matt Clement 3/25.5
Dec 22, 2004 - Signed Wade Miller 1/1
Dec 24, 2004 - Signed Jason Varitek 4/40
Jan 17, 2005 - Signed Geremi Gonzalez (couldnt find data)
Jan 27, 2005 - Traded Doug Mientkiewicz and cash to the New York Mets. Received Ian Bladergroen (minors).
Feb 11, 2005 - Signed Roberto Petagine 1/2.75
Mar 30, 2005 - Traded Byung-Hyun Kim and cash to the Colorado Rockies. Received Charles Johnson and Chris Narveson, released Charles Johnson.

Is there any doubt that the Varitek deal was the best move of the off-season? Hard to imagine, but there ya go. Baseball is hard.

[smastroyin]

I don't follow how Schilling or Foulke fits into this. But regardless I can't agree that we can't comment on decisions.

No big deal though. This thread isn't for you. There are plenty of others.

Does anyone else think I said anyone can't comment?

Honestly. I am allowed to disagree with people, you know.

[yecul]

That's not what I meant, but doesn't matter. On with the thread!

[maufman]

Theo's best move that winter was the one he didn't make. Instead of matching the Mets' 4/54 offer (which they wish they never made), Theo turned one of the comp picks into Clay Buchholz.

In the same vein, Theo didn't sign Carl Pavano. Clement wasn't a whole lot better, but avoiding the Pavano trap saved the club $15mm over 4 years, even before considering the cost of replacing Pavano. We can't identify the on-field improvements we wouldn't have made if we were lugging Pavano's contract during those years, but knowing the value of a dollar, we probably won a few extra games because of that non-signing.

As for O-Cab and Lowe, he turned those comp picks into Ellsbury and a guy who was a useful trading chip down the road (Hansen). Even the disastrous Renteria signing wasn't so bad-- he sent Renteria to Atlanta and bought Andy Marte for $8mm, then turned Marte and Kelly Shoppach into Coco Crisp, who was a key part of the 2007 season (even if Ellsbury had overtaken him by the postseason)

The Varitek contract was an overpay, both at the time and in hindsight. Because we made three postseason appearances and won the World Series with him as our starting catcher, however, I'm inclined to say that Tek's 4/40 deal was a good investment for a big-market club like the Red Sox. Every GM overpays once in a while; with the exception of Julio Lugo, Theo's overpays have basically worked out well (Foulke, Tek, Drew).

[Eric Van]

Additionally, these were three players who left that offseason via free agency and the picks that were received (and the players taken with those picks).

Orlando Cabrera granted Free Agency - (LAAoA) 4/32 - Pick recieved netted Ellsbury
Derek Lowe granted Free Agency. - (LA) 4/36 - Pick recieved netted Craig Hansen
Pedro Martinez granted Free Agency. - (NYM) 4/52.5 - Pick received netted Clay Buchholz

That is an incomplete rendering.

Cabrera also netted them a sandwich pick which became Jed Lowrie.
Lowe also netted Michael Bowden.
Pedro also netted Jonathan Egan.

It is also true that by doing it this way, you are confounding the decision to take the picks with the drafting decision, which came much later. Chase Headley, for instance, was still on the board when they picked Egan, and they can be assumed to have been very interested in drafting him instead. Pedro for the opportunity to draft someone like Buchholz and someone like Headley is what that decision really amounted to. (Of course, Buchholz was such a win that the eventual return probably matches what they were hoping.)

Finally, the three FA they signed also cost them picks.

Renteria cost them the rights to Colby Rasmus, so by swapping SS they essentially moved up in the draft to take Ellsbury instead, plus netted Lowrie.

Wells cost them the rights to Nick Hundley, rather ironic in that they eventually traded him to back to SD for Kottaras. Micah Owings and Brian Duensing were still on the board and went within the next 10 picks.

Clement cost them the rights to RHP Michael Billek, but Brett Gardner, Justin Maxwell, Matt Gamel, and Jeremy Hellickson were among the players still on the board who were taken in the next 10.

In doing the math, you have to consider Wells as Lowe's replacement and Clement as Pedro's.


This post has been edited by Eric Van: Nov 19 2009, 11:19 AM

[Eric Van]

Dec 22, 2004 - Signed Matt Clement 3/25.5

I want to point out that, although this didn't work out, it was, as far as we can tell, a very smart move.

There is a post and many responses over at FanGraphs about Belichek's decision to go for it on 4th and 2, with the consensus being that "a correct decision that didn't work out" is a concept completely alien to most TV sports commentators. And, I think, many SoSHers.

Matt Clement was thought to be a guy with upside. They signed him for less than ace money and for more than half a year he was an absolute ace, one of the best pitchers in the league. Even taking a line drive off the skull didn't slow him down.

He then started sucking horribly and much later it was discovered that (despite the absence of any significant pain complaints on Clement's part) his shoulder was absolutely shredded.

Pitchers do get hurt. And there was nothing in Clement's background (unlike Pavano's) that suggested he was a higher injury risk than any other pitcher (I think it very unlikely that they didn't do their normal proper due diligence on his medicals). You want your GM to be smart, and that's basically all you can ask; demanding that he be psychic as well is completely unrealistic. If your GM thinks he is signing a guy who can take a step forward and become an ace, and he does that, and then he gets hurt horribly, that is evidence of smartness and it's absurd to use the failure to foresee the injury as a counter-argument against the smartness.

[reggiecleveland]

Theo's best move that winter was the one he didn't make. Instead of matching the Mets' 4/54 offer (which they wish they never made), Theo turned one of the comp picks into Clay Buchholz.

This is the key.

I give the 04 offseason a passing grade because Theo was cold enough to let an icon (Pedro) and the hero of the post season (Lowe) walk away. The win in 07 was possible because the roster was turned over.

He avoided some of the mess he has now with declining vets like Papi and Lowell taking up roster spots and lots of cash.

An observation about Pedro. I still hate the Mets from 86. I hope they never win another world series. I hope fifty years from now the ball going through Buckner's legs is a symbol of how much luck even a great Mets team needed to win. So in that vein I have enjoyed seeing Mo and Pedro suck up cash from the Mets while injured.

[FFCI]

So, in the spirit of Snodgrass'Muff's series, I thought I'd also start a series of threads that is more...retrospective. This is the 5th offseason since the Red Sox won the 2004 World Series (ahhhh, still nice to say). I thought it would be interesting to go back and look at that offseason and see the moves that the team made after what was the greatest season in Red Sox history (sorry, 1967).

Here were the "major" (heh) moves that happened that offseason.

Nov 29, 2004 - Signed Doug Mirabelli - 2/3
Dec 8, 2004 - Signed Matt Mantei - 1/750k
Dec 13, 2004 - Drafted Adam Stern in 2004 Rule 5 Draft
Dec 17, 2004 - Signed John Halama - 1/1.5
Dec 17, 2004 - Signed David Wells - 2/8 + a lot more
Dec 19, 2004 - Signed Edgar Renteria 4/40
Dec 20, 2004 - Traded Dave Roberts to the San Diego Padres. Received David Pauley, Jay Payton, Ramon Vazquez and cash.
Dec 22, 2004 - Signed Matt Clement 3/25.5
Dec 22, 2004 - Signed Wade Miller 1/1
Dec 24, 2004 - Signed Jason Varitek 4/40
Jan 17, 2005 - Signed Geremi Gonzalez (couldnt find data)
Jan 27, 2005 - Traded Doug Mientkiewicz and cash to the New York Mets. Received Ian Bladergroen (minors).
Feb 11, 2005 - Signed Roberto Petagine 1/2.75
Mar 30, 2005 - Traded Byung-Hyun Kim and cash to the Colorado Rockies. Received Charles Johnson and Chris Narveson, released Charles Johnson.

Additionally, these were three players who left that offseason via free agency and the picks that were received (and the players taken with those picks).

Orlando Cabrera granted Free Agency - (LAAoA) 4/32 - Pick recieved netted Ellsbury
Derek Lowe granted Free Agency. - (LA) 4/36 - Pick recieved netted Craig Hansen
Pedro Martinez granted Free Agency. - (NYM) 4/52.5 - Pick received netted Clay Buchholz

Other players who left:
Gabe Kapler signed with Yomiuri Giants
Mike Myers signed with St. Louis Cardinals (but was later traded back to the Sox for two useless prospects)

I'll start this series off later this week. I hope this generates some interesting discussions looking back at what has happened since that offseason.

It seems that there may be a quick reaction to call the 2004 offseason "the worst ever" - when in fact it seems to be more good than bad.

Breaking down the list in my own, unscientific, gut reaction method - show that in the 19 moves listed, Theo performed 7 good -3 bad -9 neutral (.700 Success).

Many of the neutral moves, in my opinion could have be classified as "lesser good" - as, I'm glad to see a GM that takes action and makes moves that have a chance to really pay off. (Granted we have yet to really ever benefit from any of the reclamation projects (maybe Saito was the best of them) - but it's always exciting hot stove action for us to fantasize about the addition of "John Smoltz" and what he could become if he can return to form...)

Anyhow, the reclamation projects over Theo's years could be another interesting thread - but getting back on topic - the breakdown of the "overall" view of the 2004 offseason (realizing that each move will be discussed in more detail separately) - here's my quick breakdown.


The Good (7 Moves)

Nov 29, 2004 - Signed Doug Mirabelli - 2/3

Backup catcher that excelled with Wakefield and provided a little pop with the bat

Dec 17, 2004 - Signed David Wells - 2/8 + a lot more

Wells pitched very well in 2005 and was later traded for a desperately needed catching prospect

Dec 20, 2004 - Traded Dave Roberts to the San Diego Padres. Received David Pauley, Jay Payton, Ramon Vazquez and cash

Roberts was "promised" a trade and there wasn't a chance he was going to start in Boston.

Dec 22, 2004 - Signed Matt Clement 3/25.5

Clement was emerging as a power pitcher and when he came into Boston, he was everything that could have been hoped for, going 10-2 before the all-star break and being named to the all-star team. After July 26th - when he was almost killed, he was never the same pitcher. But if we want to call signing an emerging power pitcher to a contract a bad move - what do we want a GM to do?

Dec 24, 2004 - Signed Jason Varitek 4/40

And "The Captain" was created.

Orlando Cabrera granted Free Agency - (LAAoA) 4/32 - Pick received netted Ellsbury

Although the pick (Ellsbury) can't be the only justification for this being a "good" move - since the pick wasn't known - the theory was a very good move. Building up prospects and the farm system at the expense of losing a "replaceable" player is a sound practice. With Renterria viewed as the replacement - netting Ellsbury - who proved to be a major contributor to the 2007 World Series was a great move.

Pedro Martinez granted Free Agency. - (NYM) 4/52.5 - Pick received netted Clay Buchholz

As much as Pedro was (and is) loved in Boston, he was clearly breaking down and clearly was a good decision to let him go. The ability to add a top pitching prospect (that actually is turning out into a quality starter) makes the decision even better.

The Bad (3 Moves)

Dec 19, 2004 - Signed Edgar Renteria 4/40

At the time, this seemed like a great move - however, either bad scouting, bad analysis or bad luck - this decision turned out just bad

Jan 27, 2005 - Traded Doug Mientkiewicz and cash to the New York Mets. Received Ian Bladergroen (minors)

Mientkiewicz should have had seemingly more value and would have certainly been more valuable if he were simply kept as a back-up infielder. However, off-field issues and promises may have played a part in the move.

Feb 11, 2005 - Signed Roberto Petagine 1/2.75

Related with the Mientkiewicz move, Petagine was never given a real opportunity and probably shouldn't have on a team like the Red Sox. (Maybe he didn't get the opportunity because he simply wasn't that good).

The Neutral (9 Moves)

Dec 8, 2004 - Signed Matt Mantei - 1/750k

Low Risk move. I would probably lean more toward the good move side if I had to choose. I like that Theo is aggressive in trying to acquire pieces such as Mantei.

Dec 13, 2004 - Drafted Adam Stern in 2004 Rule 5 Draft

At times, Stern seemed to offer hope that he could become a quality player. At the time, the lack of prospects in the minors probably led to this selection. He eventually was able to be traded for a much needed piece (that didn't work out) in an unsuccessful stretch run in 2006. Again, I'd lean more toward a good move here.

Dec 17, 2004 - Signed John Halama - 1/1.5

A low-cost move to get a left-handed pitcher that could start and/or pitch out of the bullpen. There's really no reason or way to call this a bad move - it's a pretty minor move which certainly falls in this category.

Dec 22, 2004 - Signed Wade Miller 1/1

Reclamation project - opportunity to try to catch lightning in a bottle - I liked the move and still do - it didn't work out and the fact that more and more of the reclamation projects have proven to be anything but beneficial, perhaps that is a sign of a bad decision - that there really is not a strong case that pitchers can come back from injuries and regain their form or become better. However, Chris Carpenter is the proof that it can happen - so I'm okay with taking shots like this. However, I'm not sure how much the reclamation projects can be counted on. (In 2009, though, the failed reclamation projects did not prevent the Red Sox from making the playoffs...)

Jan 17, 2005 - Signed Geremi Gonzalez (couldnt find data)

Pitching depth move.

Mar 30, 2005 - Traded Byung-Hyun Kim and cash to the Colorado Rockies. Received Charles Johnson and Chris Narveson, released Charles Johnson

Kim was toast and had to go.

Derek Lowe granted Free Agency. - (LA) 4/36 - Pick received netted Craig Hansen

This is the "neutral" decision that I really wanted to put in the bad decision category. Lowe wanted to resign in Boston and may have taken a bit less (still a big contract at the time). He was emerging as an innings eater. However, his maturity was in question and the decision to let him go and stockpile the draft picks was probably the right one (staying consistent with the points above). If Hansen turned out to be more like Daniel Bard than Craig Hansen - we'd think more highly of this decision. I'm not sure that the analysis and projection on Lowe was correct though - he may not have been valued properly by Theo and the FO.

Gabe Kapler signed with Yomiuri Giants

Mike Myers signed with St. Louis Cardinals (but was later traded back to the Sox for two useless prospects)

There you have my "worthless" analysis - and after spending the time putting it together, I feel rather embarrassed that I've been so unproductive during this time. However, I felt that the group think attitude of hammering Theo and calling 2004 the worst off-season in the history of the Red Sox needed to a nudge back to reality.

In my opinion, we want a GM that is willing to make moves. That takes calculated chances and puts the Red Sox in position for the post season every year. Theo has done that and the off-season moves of 2004 fit in with the position the Red Sox are in today.

[FFCI]

In the same vein, Theo didn't sign Carl Pavano. Clement wasn't a whole lot better, but avoiding the Pavano trap saved the club $15mm over 4 years, even before considering the cost of replacing Pavano. We can't identify the on-field improvements we wouldn't have made if we were lugging Pavano's contract during those years, but knowing the value of a dollar, we probably won a few extra games because of that non-signing.

Theo didn't sign Pavano - but it wasn't for lack of tyring. Theo wanted Pavano - his decision making can't be applauded because Pavano chose the Yankees. Maybe we can credit Theo for not going the "extra" mile to get Pavano (the same thing he gets killed for not doing with Teixera...)

[BucketOBalls]

Best move of that offseason

Orlando Cabrera granted Free Agency - (LAAoA) 4/32 - Pick recieved netted Ellsbury
Derek Lowe granted Free Agency. - (LA) 4/36 - Pick recieved netted Craig Hansen
Pedro Martinez granted Free Agency. - (NYM) 4/52.5 - Pick received netted Clay Buchholz

Even Hansen got used in the Bay deal.

Anyway, the two major disasters of that offseason were Matt Clement and Renteria and I'm not sure how much blame you can lay at Theo's feet for those. It would be hard for him to know that Clement would take a liner off the skull and that Renteria would somehow have the worst fielding year of his career. Both worked out badly, but I'm not sure you could call them bad moves.

The only one that might look bad in hindsight was letting Lowe go. That said, it's hard to say how much of Lowes resurgence was real and how much was a result of going from Fenway and the ALE east to the land of handouts every few innings and giant ballparks.

[CaptainLaddie]

Luckily, we're going to go through each of these moves.

Eric, thank you for adding that insight about the draft picks; still, there's no guarantee the Sox would have taken Chase Headley or Colby Rasmus if they were in those slots. We can only work with what we know concretely.

This post has been edited by CaptainLaddie: Nov 19 2009, 02:39 PM

[Alcohol&Over...]

That list is quite damning.

Theo followed up the Greatest Season in Sox History with, perhaps, the Worst Offseason in Sox History.

If anything, it makes what they achieved in 2007 all the more amazing.

"Damning" would really require that each move actually had significant effect on the team, wouldn't it? The overwhelming majority of the moves seem very minor, with only Renteria as a move that truly, actively hurt the Sox. The short-term deals and trades where his hand was forced (or, in the case of Roberts, happened out of goodwill) can't be judged without the context of the team core and previous season. The opportunity cost is not all on Theo's shoulders, as he doesn't write the lineup, and any opportunity cost analysis helps "undo" one of the other "bad" moves (Clement's injury wiping out a large part of his contract term).

Besides this, the picks netted from a variety of decisions to let free agents walk seem to have created a solid core moving forward - so how could it really be "damning" that the moves did not disrupt the previously-strong core (95 wins), did not seem to affect payroll flexibility (Beckett/Lowell trade), and created a strong foundation of young players going forward (draft pick history)?

Obviously there's luck involved in the draft pick analysis portion (as well as the opinions of other staff), but while the list is full of moves that didn't work out, they seem small, the kind that have relatively low risk for their potential. It might be that the list looks worse because the non-moves were the strongest part.