What to do with Beckett? Options

[Foulkey Reese]

I don't necessarily agree with Donofrio here, but it's something interesting to think about at the very least. Theo is on record as saying that 2010 would be the last year this core would be able to go for it without some big changes, so I doubt this would ever happen. But if the right deal comes along for a stud position player I can see how this might be a wise move.

The perception of Beckett is that he’s a bona fide ace. A guy who has earned a mention among the game’s elite, and is in the midst of his prime. A guy who grabs the ball and gets it done, whether it takes guts or guile or his own good stuff. A guy who delivers every five days through the summer, then can single-handedly wins playoff series in the fall. And, at times, he has been all that.

But, by and large, the reality has been something else altogether.

He was downright brilliant a couple years back, and Duck Boats rolled through Boston’s crowded streets because of it. He posted a 3.27 earned run average. He ranked second in the American League’s Cy Young voting. He won 20 games during the regular season. Then he won four more – while allowing only four runs over 30 innings – in the playoffs.

In reality, however, Beckett’s 2007 stands as the exception among his seasons since 2003. And essentially among his career on the whole.

But there are plenty of people across baseball who haven’t yet. They see a 29-year-old who'll be a free agent next winter and perceive a pitcher in his prime. They see a sturdily built 6-foot, 4-inch right-hander and perceive a workhorse. They see the clutch performances of 2003, and 2007, and perceive him to be an automatic in the postseason. They see Josh Beckett and perceive him to be an ace worth paying a hefty price to acquire.

The reality, however, is something different. Cliff Lee is an ace. CC Sabathia is an ace. Beckett is not an ace.

http://davedonofrio.com/2009/11/03/trumping-the-ace.aspx

This post has been edited by Foulkey Reese: Nov 5 2009, 01:56 PM

[Skins24]

Although the article states the Sox should try to turn Beckett into something better during the trade market this winter, the article fails to show how that would be accomplished.

It is hard to imagine that the Sox could make themselves better in 2010 by trading Beckett. If there was a way, I would certainly listen, but it seems like a doomed exercise.

Is there any reason to think the Sox are looking to take a step back in 2010?

[yecul]

1. What are their intentions for 2010?
2. What are their intentions for Beckett beyond that?

Those are the keys. If they are just going to patch things up (ie, cheap LF instead of Bay, stick it out with Lowell) and are not going to resign Beckett, then sure, go ahead and trade him. I like Beckett. I am a big fan and he is capable of performing at a high level -- if inconsistently -- but if 1 year of Beckett can be exchanged for multiple years of other key pieces then I will take that exchange even if it hurts them for that one year. It's ok if he's not an "ace".

Do you expect Buchholz to step up to the next level? Can you sign a FA or trade-and-sign for someone like Halladay (maybe a bad example, depending)? There are obviously many factors.

[The Filthy One]

Is there any reason to think the Sox are looking to take a step back in 2010?

I don't know about taking a step back (for instance, I can't see a way they trade Beckett this offseason), but you could certainly argue they'd be better off standing pat this offseason and overhauling the team after 2010, when Lowell, Martinez, Beckett, etc. are all up for new contracts. I think the team, as constructed now, could probably post another 92-95 win season. With some minor tweaks, they could be a bit better. I would think the FO might want to make one more push with this core, then see where they stand after 2010.

[Adirondack jack]

Felix Hernandez most similar pitcher is Chris Young. He isn't good, either!

I love how the author says Beckett only has a good season or two and then points to Cliff Lee. Barring some overpay from another team, that I am not anticipating, it seems the best route with Beckett is trying to extend him this winter.

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

I can see what the author is trying to say: Josh Beckett's reputation as a big game pitcher exceeds his actual performances and capabilities as a pitcher, and if the Sox can get someone to overpay based on reputation rather than reality, they should seriously consider making a trade.

However I think the author overstates his case. Yes, 2007 stands as an exception in Josh Beckett's career due to the high win total, low ERA combined with the dominant posts-season performance that year. However, what's left is actually nowhere near as bad as the author implies. Over the last two years after the 2007 season, Beckett is 29-16, 3.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, and 4.17 K/BB. That's a damn good pitcher. Perhaps not a Cy Young candidate, but a damn good pitcher nonetheless. And he's gone over 200 innings in 3 of his 4 Boston years (the one exception being 2008 when he hurt the oblique near the end of the year).

Now, it would help if he got his fat ass in better shape over this offseason; he's had enough tweaks and minor muscle pulls that I think his conditioning is not where it could be. Perhaps the incentive of pitching for a new contract will be the motivator for him doing so.

[BigMike]

QUOTE But there are plenty of people across baseball who haven’t yet. They see a 29-year-old who'll be a free agent next winter and perceive a pitcher in his prime. They see a sturdily built 6-foot, 4-inch right-hander and perceive a workhorse. They see the clutch performances of 2003, and 2007, and perceive him to be an automatic in the postseason. They see Josh Beckett and perceive him to be an ace worth paying a hefty price to acquire.

The reality, however, is something different. Cliff Lee is an ace. CC Sabathia is an ace. Beckett is not an ace.

Lee is having a Becket 07 type of postseason, but really what has Cliff Lee proven that Beckett hasn't?

I do give Sabathia credit for the absurd number of innings he has thrown, and his performance in Milwaukee last year was epic, but up until this postseason he has come up very small when the postseason started

Beckett is not Pedro or Clemens in their prime. He's not Tim Lincecum, but he has absolutely delivered in his role as staff ace the past 3 years.

How on earth do you make yourself better trading Beckett? Do you trade Beckett for Prospects, and then include those prospects plus others in a deal for Hernandez or Halladay?

[rembrat]

I could say that 2006 is the exception among his career and I'd be right too. Josh Beckett is a guy that has posted FIPs of: 3.69, 2.94, 3.59, 3.27, 5.12 (2006), 3.08, 3.24, 3.63 since 2002. He is a really good pitcher, not locking him up would be a mistake. And since he seems to fit the mold of what this FO likes in pitching (power fastball, power curve, high K's, low BB's - remember Henry had a hardon for AJB) I don't see him rocking anything other than a Red Sox uni for 4 to 5 years.

[amfox1]

Beckett is not Pedro or Clemens in their prime. He's not Tim Lincecum, but he has absolutely delivered in his role as staff ace the past 3 years.

How on earth do you make yourself better trading Beckett? Do you trade Beckett for Prospects, and then include those prospects plus others in a deal for Hernandez or Halladay?

While his heart and reputation are as an ace, Beckett has settled in as a #2 pitcher. Jon Lester is the clear ace of the Red Sox.

As to what you do with Beckett, you keep him for one more year. Even as a #2 pitcher, he is underpaid (or at a minimum fairly paid) at $12mm per year. If the Red Sox fall out of the race by the trade deadline, they can consider trading him for prospects or can offer him arb and take the two draft picks (assuming the same compensation system is still in effect).

I would not trade Beckett, nor would I trade Buchholz. The thought of trading Beckett for prospects to flip for another pitcher seems overly complicated and unlikely to obtain fair value. If I had to trade a starter for Hernandez, I would look to trade Matsuzaka. He will come cheaper ($9.3mm avg.), he has obvious interest for Mariners ownership and its Asian fans and is signed beyond 2010.

[5belongstoGeorge]

If I had to trade a starter for Hernandez, I would look to trade Matsuzaka. He will come cheaper ($9.3mm avg.), he has obvious interest for Mariners ownership and its Asian fans and is signed beyond 2010.

If the Mariners would do a deal of King Felix for Dice-K/++ I would start to believe in Santa again.

I can't imagine a scenario where the Sox would get equal or better value for Josh F. Beckett. As was said earlier, if anything, try to get an extension. Trading away an ace or even a #2 with post season benefits seems like a foolish idea for a Red Sox team that is annually expected to post a 90+win season. The Sox have historically kept such an abundance of pitching who needs Beckett?

I also concur with SJH's point that Beckett could use a little core training in the off season. If dude had been doing full planks in June and July we could have won it all in 2008.

This post has been edited by 5belongstoGeorge: Nov 3 2009, 01:19 PM

[ElcaballitoMVP]

If the Red Sox were to trade Beckett this offseason, wouldn't that likely mean they have no interest in signing him to an extension? Because either way, you're only getting one year out of Beckett, either in performance or in value coming back in a trade. Then the question is, do the 2010 Red Sox have a better or worse chance of getting to the playoffs by trading Beckett. I can't see any way this team, as currently constructed, can say they'd be better in 2010 without a guy who is, at worst, your #2 with the upside to have a dominating, Cy Young-type season.

Unless this team is getting multiple pieces to fix the team (like a C and SS, or LF and SS or an absolute stud at one of those positions) and then making a deal for a Roy Halladay to replace Beckett, then I just can't see it happening. It's certainly a possibility, but I think the Red Sox like having Josh Beckett and I think Josh Beckett likes having the Red Sox. Beckett has said on numerous occasions that he loves pitching in Boston, there's also no secret that John Henry has a special attachment to Beckett, so I can see a 3/4 year extension being hammered out before the Sox send him packing.

I just think removing Beckett, unless you get a ton in return (which is unlikely when you're only trading for 1 season of Beckett), is going to do more harm than good. And then what happens if you don't get a Roy Halladay or Felix Hernandez? Do you then overpay for John Lackey in years and dollars? I think the team is better off sticking with Beckett and hope he signs an extension at some point. I would certainly explore an extension before trading him.

[philly sox fan]

While his heart and reputation are as an ace, Beckett has settled in as a #2 pitcher. Jon Lester is the clear ace of the Red Sox.

As to what you do with Beckett, you keep him for one more year. Even as a #2 pitcher, he is underpaid (or at a minimum fairly paid) at $12mm per year. If the Red Sox fall out of the race by the trade deadline, they can consider trading him for prospects or can offer him arb and take the two draft picks (assuming the same compensation system is still in effect).

You seem to have pretty high standards for a #2 starter. By Fan Graphs WAR Beckett has ranked 15th, 13th, and 3rd the last 3 years.

I'm not one of those guys who says that there has to be 30 #1 starters or anything like that, but it seems pretty likely to me that Beckett is solidly in the 11th to 15th best starter in baseball range.

He may not be a mythical "ace" and Lester sure seems to have passed him, but I don't think that makes him a "settled" #2 starter in the grand scheme of things. He's better than Derek Lowe and AJ Burnett the big FA pitchers from last year and though it's more debatable I'd say better than Lackey too. Those are all 15-18M pitchers.

Fan Graphs has his value at ~23M the last couple of years. Even if you discount that 10-20% he is wildly underpaid at 12M and looking for a deserved up into the high teens.

It seems to me that Beckett has gone from overrated - he wasn't better than Sabathia in 2007 - to underrated by most Sox fans. Just because you don't contend for a Cy Young or you've been passed by another homegrown pitcher doesn't necessarily make you a #2 starter.

[BucketOBalls]

The author is correct in that Beckett is viewed as an ace pitcher, but has really been more of a #2 in his time in Boston. He's kinda like Mark Buehrle. A good pitcher who might give a great year once in a while. When he is on, he's very good, but he doesn't have the consistency one would expect of a true #1.

That said...I think he's at the high end for a #2 pitcher. I don't see any way you can trade him and help the team though. The only team that would want him would be a team that really wanted to go for it next year and had a decent possibility of extending him. The ones I can think of are the Mets and Cubs. Beckett and Lowell to the Mets for David Wright(? I can't see that happening, even if it does make some sense.

Not to mention that trading Beckett means the Sox start with either Matsuzaka or Buchholz as their second best starter...which is a bit scary. Matsuzaka is a roll of the dice(-k) and I'd like Buchholz replicate his performance last year after an offseaon before being 100% sure of him(that seems to be a problem alot of the time- guys seems to forget what they did).

[glennhoffmania]

If I had to trade a starter for Hernandez, I would look to trade Matsuzaka. He will come cheaper ($9.3mm avg.), he has obvious interest for Mariners ownership and its Asian fans and is signed beyond 2010.

He has a full no-trade.

And the author's comment about Cliff Lee was pretty ridiculous.

[amfox1]

He has a full no-trade.

And the author's comment about Cliff Lee was pretty ridiculous.

I understand that, but I believe (my opinion only) after the whole workout rehab that he would not reject going to a team like Seattle which is West Coast and has a Japanese ownership and following.

[amfox1]

You seem to have pretty high standards for a #2 starter. By Fan Graphs WAR Beckett has ranked 15th, 13th, and 3rd the last 3 years.

I'm not one of those guys who says that there has to be 30 #1 starters or anything like that, but it seems pretty likely to me that Beckett is solidly in the 11th to 15th best starter in baseball range.

He may not be a mythical "ace" and Lester sure seems to have passed him, but I don't think that makes him a "settled" #2 starter in the grand scheme of things. He's better than Derek Lowe and AJ Burnett the big FA pitchers from last year and though it's more debatable I'd say better than Lackey too. Those are all 15-18M pitchers.

Fan Graphs has his value at ~23M the last couple of years. Even if you discount that 10-20% he is wildly underpaid at 12M and looking for a deserved up into the high teens.

It seems to me that Beckett has gone from overrated - he wasn't better than Sabathia in 2007 - to underrated by most Sox fans. Just because you don't contend for a Cy Young or you've been passed by another homegrown pitcher doesn't necessarily make you a #2 starter.

Point taken. I certainly did not mean to imply that he was anything but at the top of the #2 starter class.

The player immediately above Beckett in 2009 WAR is Josh Johnson, who to me is an ace and the two players immediately below Beckett in 2009 WAR is Joel Piniero and Gavin Floyd, who to me are not aces.

I agree that Beckett will be looking for a contract close to Burnett's, and I do not see the Red Sox paying that kind of coin for Beckett's age 31-34 years.

[bosockboy]

Point taken. I certainly did not mean to imply that he was anything but at the top of the #2 starter class.

The player immediately above Beckett in 2009 WAR is Josh Johnson, who to me is an ace and the two players immediately below Beckett in 2009 WAR is Joel Piniero and Gavin Floyd, who to me are not aces.

I agree that Beckett will be looking for a contract close to Burnett's, and I do not see the Red Sox paying that kind of coin for Beckett's age 31-34 years.

Beckett's agent should be fired if he gets Burnett's deal. Beckett has carried 2 teams to a parade on his back...and whether his body of work is inconsistent or not, his agent should turn those two seasons into a pretty large haul. Someone will pay 5/100 at least.

[Buck Showalter]

Beckett's agent should be fired if he gets Burnett's deal. Beckett has carried 2 teams to a parade on his back...and whether his body of work is inconsistent or not, his agent should turn those two seasons into a pretty large haul. Someone will pay 5/100 at least.

Certainly the Yankees would.

I'm with BigMike...I don't envision many scenarios where trading Beckett makes the Red Sox better.

[HriniakPosterChi...]

I understand that, but I believe (my opinion only) after the whole workout rehab that he would not reject going to a team like Seattle which is West Coast and has a Japanese ownership and following.

Maybe he won't reject it at the end of the day, but his agent (Boras) will make certain he doesn't accept it without lots of other goodies (for both of them) in the deal. Trading Matsuzaka is not going to be trading away the typical pre-FA pitcher.

[maufman]

Even if you want to trade Beckett, the stars are aligned against it. Lee, Halladay and Webb are all hitting the market next winter, and the Jays are openly shopping Halladay. How many teams have the money to sign a big-name pitcher to a long-term deal and are willing to part with serious talent to get that big-name pitcher a year sooner? Would any of them prefer Beckett to Halladay? Probably not. So the Sox would have to wait for Halladay to move, and there's no telling when that could happen-- it could be next week, but it could also be in February. After Halladay moves, who knows if there would be a market for Beckett? Even if trading Beckett makes sense in theory, in practice it's almost certain not to happen.

On the other hand, if at least two of the other front-line SPs (Lee, Halladay, Webb) aren't extended this winter, the upside of waiting another year for his payday will be less enticing to Beckett. (Webb is virtually certain not to get an extension.) In addition to those SPs, Joe Mauer and Carl Crawford are likely to be available, along with the usual collection of lesser lights. With so many high-profile targets, and with the clubs likely to be feeling the continuing pinch of recession, taking a discount to get his money now makes more sense for Beckett than it might under other circumstances.

Beckett's agent should be fired if he gets Burnett's deal. Beckett has carried 2 teams to a parade on his back...and whether his body of work is inconsistent or not, his agent should turn those two seasons into a pretty large haul. Someone will pay 5/100 at least.

Well, Burnett hit the free market, but I agree that Beckett won't accept less than Burnett got, so 5/82.5 is the floor for any possible extension. For their part, with so much talent hitting the market next winter, the FO won't give Beckett his money a year early unless they receive a substantial discount. Reasonable people can disagree what would constitute a "substantial discount," but $20mm AAV certainly wouldn't. Therefore 5/100 is the ceiling for any extension.

I expect the Sox to sign Beckett to a 5-year extension for $85-90mm, unless the FO knows something about worrysome about Beckett's health that we don't.