Padres close to hiring Hoyer as GM Options

[Corsi Combover]

The San Diego Padres are moving closer toward hiring Jed Hoyer, an assistant general manager with the Boston Red Sox, as their next general manager, according to major league sources.

Hoyer, 35, has worked in Boston's front office under Theo Epstein. Hoyer has interviewed with other teams for GM jobs in the past.

Jeff Moorad, who became CEO and part-owner of the Padres earlier this year, informed Kevin Towers on the final weekend of the regular season that he would not continue as the team's general manager. Towers had been San Diego's GM since 1995.

The Padres have interviewed Kim Ng, the assistant GM of the Dodgers, as well as others, in their search for a replacement for Towers.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?i...ce=MLBHeadlines

[SoxScout]

I'm sure his thank you note to Theo will include a list of the names needed to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. It'll include the usual studs and probably a few personal favorites.

Do you think this makes a deal more or less likely? I'm sure Hoyer won't be taking the back-end substitute names we were trying to get Towers to take.

This post has been edited by SoxScout: Oct 21 2009, 01:47 PM

[Skins24]

Do you think this makes a deal more or less likely? I'm sure Hoyer won't be taking the back-end substitute names we were trying to get Towers to take.

The first issue would be does Hoyer want to trade Gonzalez. If he is so inclined, I think the Hoyer's familairity with the Sox's farm system would make a trade to the Sox more likely. It is quite common for new GM's to target guys they liked with their former team.

[Adirondack jack]

I'm sure his thank you note to Theo will include a list of the names needed to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. It'll include the usual studs and probably a few personal favorites.

Do you think this makes a deal more or less likely? I'm sure Hoyer won't be taking the back-end substitute names we were trying to get Towers to take.

Hasn't it been Moorad all along who has been against moving the young local stud?

[Remagellan]

I wonder if this means Kevin Towers comes here to replace Jed. Might be a nice place to spend a year before heading down to replace Minaya when the Wilpons finally wise up.

[smastroyin]

Maybe Jed can pull a Mangina and sell off assets to his former team in exchange for castoffs.

[dynomite]

The first issue would be does Hoyer want to trade Gonzalez. If he is so inclined, I think the Hoyer's familairity with the Sox's farm system would make a trade to the Sox more likely. It is quite common for new GM's to target guys they liked with their former team.

The Padres entire organization is a mess, top to bottom. They've got their AAA team playing in the majors, all of them learning on the fly instead of developing skills in the minors, and that's only the beginning of their problems. In 2009 BA ranked the Padres farm system 29th. 1B Kyle Blanks is their "next big thing," and they were playing him out of position this year in the outfield because Gonzalez was blocking him.

They are in desperate need of a complete restocking of the farm system and overhaul of the roster, and Gonzalez is the only blue-chipper they have left after dealing Peavy. The Red Sox have an embarrassment of farm system riches and desperately need a big masher in the middle (especially if Bay departs), and preferably one who plays a corner infield position.

A Gonzalez trade makes a ton of sense for both teams, and Hoyer's knowledge of the Sox farm system and its players should make the trade even easier to pull off -- Hoyer knows the players they'll be talking about (Bowden? Reddick?) and won't be worried he's getting fleeced.

[czar]

A Gonzalez trade makes a ton of sense for both teams, and Hoyer's knowledge of the Sox farm system and its players should make the trade even easier to pull off -- Hoyer knows the players they'll be talking about (Bowden? Reddick?) and won't be worried he's getting fleeced.

You'd also presume he knows quite intimately that the shine may very well be off Bowden, Reddick wasn't exactly spectacular above AA, and expectations for Lars might have been a bit too high last year. I think the trade value of the system as a whole took a bit of a hit in '09 if you are considering Buchholz and Bard untouchable; and Hoyer had a front-row seat.

He might be comfortable with the Sox system because of the familiarity but, assuming he and Theo value players on the farm the same, him being in SD would seem to decrease the odds of a move getting made just because both would share the opinion of who is desirable and who is not; which logically would create a roadblock.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

You'd also presume he knows quite intimately that the shine may very well be off Bowden, Reddick wasn't exactly spectacular above AA, and expectations for Lars might have been a bit too high last year. I think the trade value of the system as a whole took a bit of a hit in '09 if you are considering Buchholz and Bard untouchable; and Hoyer had a front-row seat.

Coming off his impressive finish to the '09 season, which included a huge stride in his overall development, I feel like Buchholz is pretty untouchable at this point. Combine that belief with the lack of top-flight, major-league-ready talent in this farm system, and I'd say the Sox' chances of acquiring Gonzalez are pretty slim. IMO, if they do it, it'll be a three-team deal involving Papelbon (to a 3rd party) and a boatload of young talent heading to San Diego.

[dynomite]

He might be comfortable with the Sox system because of the familiarity but, assuming he and Theo value players on the farm the same, him being in SD would seem to decrease the odds of a move getting made just because both would share the opinion of who is desirable and who is not; which logically would create a roadblock.

With a talent like Gonzalez I'm willing to bet Theo would be willing to part with some of "his" guys. The Padres system is devoid of talent at all levels -- I don't think Hoyer would be silly to accept A/AA players as part of the deal.

[David Laurila]

I think the trade value of the system as a whole took a bit of a hit in '09 if you are considering Buchholz and Bard untouchable; and Hoyer had a front-row seat.

I don't really agree with that. It's a subjective argument either way, but while Anderson and Bowden did lose a little luster, other legit prospects made notable jumps. Kelly and Westmoreland certainly did, and will presumably be targets of teams we talk trade with. Kalish, Reddick and Tazawa each improved their stock this year, as did a few others.

As for Hoyer, hopefully he gets the job, as he's deserving of the opportunity.

[BucketOBalls]

You'd also presume he knows quite intimately that the shine may very well be off Bowden, Reddick wasn't exactly spectacular above AA, and expectations for Lars might have been a bit too high last year. I think the trade value of the system as a whole took a bit of a hit in '09 if you are considering Buchholz and Bard untouchable; and Hoyer had a front-row seat.

He might be comfortable with the Sox system because of the familiarity but, assuming he and Theo value players on the farm the same, him being in SD would seem to decrease the odds of a move getting made just because both would share the opinion of who is desirable and who is not; which logically would create a roadblock.

Another fact is that it would not look good for Hoyer to move the teams marquee player to his former team unless he got a great haul back in return. I.e. Theo overpayed.

While it's true the Padre's SHOULD move Adrian, it's not clear that ownership and the organization accepts this yet. Hoyer may not want to fight that battle right at the outset.

[The_Powa_of_Seij...]

As for Hoyer, hopefully he gets the job, as he's deserving of the opportunity.

Basically Josh Byrnes, the "Remarkable" Peter Woodfork, and now possibly Jed Hoyer will have departed in recent years? Am I missing anyone? That's a lot of young talent to lose. Who's next, Cherrington? Hopefully, for the sake of the organization, all of these Theo products will fare better than Beane's disciples.

Incidentally, is Kim Ng ever gonna get a shot at being a GM? It seems like she's been on everyone's shortlists for years, yet I wonder if any of the organizations have ever taken her seriously as a contender.

[czar]

I don't really agree with that. It's a subjective argument either way, but while Anderson and Bowden did lose a little luster, other legit prospects made notable jumps. Kelly and Westmoreland certainly did, and will presumably be targets of teams we talk trade with. Kalish, Reddick and Tazawa each improved their stock this year, as did a few others.

As for Hoyer, hopefully he gets the job, as he's deserving of the opportunity.

I'm not denying that the stock of a lot of low-level guys went up and I agree it's an extremely subjective argument (and this is about as far on the limb I'll go since there are many people on this board with deeper knowledge of the system than myself); but I don't think it's an unfair assessment to question whether or not the Sox have the blue-chip, major league or near-major league talent to pull off a blockbuster trade this offseason (e.g., sending people to a Hoyer-run SD for Gonzalez) without having to sacrifice a Buchholz or an Ellsbury from the major league roster.

Last offseason you might have been able to sell teams on a Bowden/Anderson/Lowrie package for a big-time player-- in fact, I'm sure there are people here that would have cried "too much!" I just don't think you can do that this year. Raw, toolsy, 19 year-olds like Westmoreland are a necessity for teams looking to develop deep farm systems; and, in a couple years, he might very well be hanging out in BA's top 10. But (anecdotally) low-level guys like that typically aren't the cornerstones of trades for in-prime, under-contract star players like Adrian Gonzalez.

The top of the farm system can't get better and better every year; and we appear to be in/headed into a bit of a lull relative to the last 4-6 years that saw Lester, Youkilis, Pedroia, Papelbon, Buchholz, Bard, Ellsbury, Masterson and many others contribute significantly at the big league level. And guys like Kalish, Reddick, and Tazawa are great guys for us to have working their way through the system, but it doesn't feel they are getting the hype that the aforementioned farmhands got coming up through the upper levels. Whether that is justified or not, the hype is probably a reasonable indicator of their value to another team; particularly if one has to sell their fanbase on shipping out a marquee name.

Another fact is that it would not look good for Hoyer to move the teams marquee player to his former team unless he got a great haul back in return. I.e. Theo overpayed.

While it's true the Padre's SHOULD move Adrian, it's not clear that ownership and the organization accepts this yet. Hoyer may not want to fight that battle right at the outset.

Regardless of whether or not it *looks* good; I'm working on the assumption that Hoyer's definition of "overpay" is likely similar to Theo's. If Hoyer is really searching for an overpay (or even the best value) for Gonzalez, it's extremely unlikely to come from our FO due to the philosophical similarities unless the Sox are overvaluing Adrian Gonzalez relative to the rest of baseball.

This post has been edited by czar: Oct 21 2009, 05:03 PM

[David Laurila]

I'm not denying that the stock of a lot of low-level guys went up and I agree it's an extremely subjective argument ..Raw, toolsy, 19 year-olds like Westmoreland are a necessity for teams looking to develop deep farm systems; and, in a couple years, he might very well be hanging out in BA's top 10. But (anecdotally) low-level guys like that typically aren't the cornerstones of trades for in-prime, under-contract star players like Adrian Gonzalez.

I agree with much of what you said, but no so much what I copied above.

I don't consider the Westmoreland/Kelly/Reddick/Kalish/Tazawa group "low-level," as there is a decent chance they will be rated as our top prospects going into next season, in just that order.

Also, while it is an imperfect comp, the package Cleveland received for Bartolo Colon does have similarities. At the time of that trade, Cliff Lee was 21 in AA, Brandon Phillips was 20 in AA, and Grady Sizemore was 19 in high-A.

[Eric Van]

Given the insane depth of the Sox system from prospects 20 to 65, you would guess that any deal would include two or three low-minor C-prospect lottery tickets, guys Jed has taken a liking too, perhaps more of a liking than Theo. A deal involving two name prospects and three "who's he?" types would probably work for both parties.

[someoneanywhere]

A couple of things to piggyback on David and EV. First, the low minors are indeed well stocked: not just with potential talent, but potential impact talent. Some of the guys coming through Greenville in the last few years -- I'm a season ticket holder, so I see all of them a lot -- are raw, but potentially explosive. And most importantly, some of those guys have shown the ability to learn and adjust. If you'd have seen Middlebrooks or Hissey this year, or Rizzo or Kalish last, you'd have seen two very different types of player between April and August. The reason the buzz is there on many of them is just that: the ability to translate their tools, to figure things out. Once you get past the tools, that's what makes for a ballplayer. (And on the other side of the coin, that's why no one ever talks about Jason Place. Potential impact bat and defense, yet struggling to adjust with a history of struggling to adjust.)

I would guess that a few of these types would be very appealing to the Padres. Hoyer is going to a situation where he'll be charged with developing an organization from the bottom up. He won't have Theo's burden of winning now and later. He needs inventory. And the Sox have it.

Lastly, there's a point upthread arguing that a roadblock exists because both Theo and Hoyer know who's desirable and who's not. While I think that's always a consideration, I don't think it accurately reflects the art of a deal. You want to give talent for talent. These guys aren't used-car dealers. Once you get a reputation for dealing lemons, people stop dealing with you. (See Braves, Atlanta.) Take the Sox and the Tribe. Both of those FOs are familiar with one another and have a great deal of respect for one another. Both evaluate players similarly. And consequently they are comfortable dealing with one another. All of those Tribe fans who are upset with the low minor prospects bagged for Victor Martinez are going to be calling Shapiro a genius in three years, especially if Hagadone stays healthy.

I would expect a similar package would be on the table for Gonzalez. And both sides will get value out of it.

[dynomite]

While it's true the Padre's SHOULD move Adrian, it's not clear that ownership and the organization accepts this yet. Hoyer may not want to fight that battle right at the outset.

Well, it's not exactly clear what the organization thinks at the moment. Time and again they've argued that they're not rebuilding, that they're close to competing for the NL West title, that they're not rebuilding, etc. ("Hey, we went 17-9 in September!") From the Padres mlb.com beat writer:

The outgoing general manager (Kevin Towers) and several players said at the end of the season that they believed this team wasn't far off from being one that could contend in the National League West.

But then they go and trade Jake Peavy (twice!) for prospects.

So actions might speak louder than words on that front.

Lastly, there's a point upthread arguing that a roadblock exists because both Theo and Hoyer know who's desirable and who's not. While I think that's always a consideration, I don't think it accurately reflects the art of a deal. You want to give talent for talent.

I really agree with this. If Hoyer does 1) get the job and 2) deal Gonzalez, he'll want to ensure that he's getting equal return and feel confident that he's trading for known quantities. What better way to do so than poaching from the farm system he's intimately familiar with?

[czar]

I don't consider the Westmoreland/Kelly/Reddick/Kalish/Tazawa group "low-level," as there is a decent chance they will be rated as our top prospects going into next season, in just that order.

Low-level is just a term I'm using for "sub-AA." I think it's fair to say the consensus top 3 in the Sox org are Kelly, Westmoreland, Kalish in that order or something similar.

I would expect a similar package would be on the table for Gonzalez. And both sides will get value out of it.

You think the Martinez trade is a good comp for a Gonzalez offer?

The Sox can have all the young, high-upside players in class A they want; it's not an indictment of the system, either. (And I don't think any thoughts in this thread reflect poorly on the farm system) That doesn't change the fact that aside from the occasional outlier; blockbuster trades for marquee players almost never involve only guys who are still years away from even broaching the major leagues, let alone making an impact.

Lastly, there's a point upthread arguing that a roadblock exists because both Theo and Hoyer know who's desirable and who's not. While I think that's always a consideration, I don't think it accurately reflects the art of a deal. You want to give talent for talent.

See, I don't think this is true. They certainly aren't trying to sell lemons; but I don't think Theo is doing his job if he's not trying to maximize the return in every possible transaction; financially or talent-wise. In this era of the information, the burden of scouting shifts to the team acquiring the player. If Theo says "Craig Hansen's awesome, trust us," teams will just figure out he's crazy-- not make that move and suddenly hate (and refuse to deal with) the Sox three years later for misrepresenting him.

This post has been edited by czar: Oct 22 2009, 09:13 AM

[Al Zarilla]

The Sox can have all the young, high-upside players in class A they want; it's not an indictment of the system, either. (And I don't think any thoughts in this thread reflect poorly on the farm system) That doesn't change the fact that aside from the occasional outlier; blockbuster trades for marquee players almost never involve only guys who are still years away from even broaching the major leagues, let alone making an impact.

There was the CC Sabathia for Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson and Zach Jackson trade last year. Granted, LaPorta was highly touted, but still playing in AA ball, and you never know about any prospect; Jackson was in AAA but never did much in the minors; Rob Bryson was in low A ball. CC Sabathia for not a big haul I'd say there, and only the Yankees are happy today.