IF the Sox were to trade Papelbon.... Options

[Aeneas]

Regardless of where you stand on the "should the sox trade (dump?) Papelbon" issue, you have to admit the sentiment is in the air. My question is what teams seem like potential trading partners for Papelbon?

The ones that spring to mind are:

1. Phillies

2. Detroit

3. Cubs

4. Baltimore

5. Cleveland


Unfortunately the Brewers already resigned Hoffman so using Papelbon in a Fielder trade is a no go.

[Rinoblast05]

I don't think you'd see a Type A major leaguer in return for Paps, unless it was a weird rental-for-rental deal. Odds are you'd collect a handful of prospects, which is something the Sox have enough of IMO. From that perspective I don;t see a trade being worthwhile. Keep Paps for another year and give Bard more time to develop.

If you trade Paps, you're most likely looking at Bard as the closer (which isn't bad, but I wonder how he'd handle the pressure). There's also the option of signing/trading for a 1-year guy, or the outside possibility they resign Wagner. I still like Papelbon, because I don't believe his performance this year is a sign of a declining career. How many guys could you round up with ERAs at 1.85 and a WHIP of 1.15? Do you really think Bard is going to drop 2 points from his ERA in one year?

[teejay1324]

It's not entirely outside the realm of possibility that the Red Sox offer arbitration to Wagner and resign him on a one year deal and keep him as closer.

It's purely hypothetical of course because they'd have to move Papelbon first, then resign Wagner. Now to get even into more ridiculous speculation the pieces they get for Papelbon could be spun, possibly with Sox prospects, to land a big time bat in a trade.

How likely any of that is though remains to be seen. There would be plenty of interest in Papelbon because of his level of success and not having to commit to him on a 3-5 year deal, yet anyways.

Personally, which has nothing to do with any of this, I wouldn't mind seeing him go at all, don't like his mouthing off, the half naked dancing doesn't really do much for me either, and he seems stubborn at the least to change his approach on the mound.

The one thing in all of this to keep in mind is that Theo isn't/hasn't been afraid to pull the trigger on something he clearly thinks will be better for the club regardless of the potential reaction to that move.

[lexrageorge]

Before we get too enamored of the idea of making Billy Wagner closer just because of Papelbon's one really, really, really bad day at the office, consider the following:

Wagner's WHIP as a Mets closer: 1.11, 1.13, 0.89
Wagner's blown saves: 5, 5, and 7

Papelbon's WHIP in this "down year" was only marginally worse, and he's only blown 11 saves (plus 1) in the past 3 seasons.

Wagner turns 39 next season, is coming off of major arm surgery, and comes with no guarantees that he can be a regular closer. Expect that he'll still find a desparate team to shell out a 2/$20M deal, and he's not taking no hometown discount to stay with the Sox.

Papelbon is 10 years younger, and although there are always whispers and concerns about his shoulder, he has not missed any time since 2006. There has not been any indication of any lack of velocity that can flag some latent arm trouble. Paps can be had for a one year commitment, probably less than $10M, which means there's no significant impact to the Sox operating budget in 2010.

And Daniel Bard's WHIP this past season was 1.28.

Having said that, trading Papelbon for an impact batter is something that Theo could consider. However, it better be a good deal, which means not for a bunch of AA guys with uncertain futures. If such a deal doesn't exist, then just keep doing the one year thingy until free agency, take the draft pick and say "thanks".

As for his antics, I don't mind them at all. It keeps things interesting, sometimes amusing, and they have no bearing on what he does on the field. If you don't like them, just ignore them and look at the results.

[teejay1324]

I wouldn't have minded seeing him go before yesterday. He is an excellent closer for the most part, yes. But what is frustrating about him is that if he's this good with heavy reliance on his fastball, how much more effective could he be(in terms of pitches per appearance and his walk rate which tripled this year from '08) if he had a way of attacking hitters besides pumping fastball after fastball after fastball.

And it's possible this fastball only approach(83% this year) will catch up with him and he'll have a big drop off. It might not happen next year, it might never happen but his approach needs to change and I don't see him willing to do it.

[bobwalker2]

I saw a recent article about the % of time that Varitek called for a fast ball - very high relative to the league average. How much of his pitch calling has affected the ability of Sox pitchers to develop secondary pitches? Has this affected Papelbon?

[Danny_Darwin]

Little surprised I haven't seen the Cardinals mentioned as a possible destination; Franklin will be 37 next year and he has really only had one good half as their closer.

[Doctor G]

The D-backs would be interested also.

[ehaz]

Do you think IF they made a Pap deal they could flip him for prospects and flip prospects + others in a bigger deal for a bat? or a pitcher? the way theo reportedly tried to do mid season?

[teejay1324]

Do you think IF they made a Pap deal they could flip him for prospects and flip prospects + others in a bigger deal for a bat? or a pitcher? the way theo reportedly tried to do mid season?

Touched on this idea further up the thread...

It's not entirely outside the realm of possibility that the Red Sox offer arbitration to Wagner and resign him on a one year deal and keep him as closer.

It's purely hypothetical of course because they'd have to move Papelbon first, then resign Wagner. Now to get even into more ridiculous speculation the pieces they get for Papelbon could be spun, possibly with Sox prospects, to land a big time bat in a trade.

Certainly it's possible, we might have to wait a while though to see what unfolds and who is put out there as being available. The Jason Bay situation also will play into who they do or do not go after in terms of a "big bat".

It feels like there are a million different ways things can go this offseason, should be interesting if nothing else.

[kneemoe]

If czar's post on the main board (#7 in the SS position thread) is to be believed, maybe Theo could engineer a Paps + Lowrie + two good prospects to the Brewers for Prince and JJ Hardy. Its a long shot, but it would seemingly take care of two holes and get rid of Paps while he's still got value.
Probably a pipe dream, but isn't that what the beginning of the off season is all about?

edit: and apparently I'm, late to the game as something like this was suggested later in the same thread (but trading Buch?! I don't think we can do that, even for a bat like Fielder)Furthermore, I'm an idiot b/c I looked up the wrong year and thought Hoffman was a FA after the WS instead of next year (and it looks as though there's an option for 2011 too...)

This post has been edited by kneemoe: Oct 12 2009, 11:52 AM

[Synovia]

I don't understand the love for Hardy.

He's had 1 above average offensive season. One average, and 3 significantly below average seasons, all in the NL. Yes, the defense is terrific, but he screams "Late inning defensive replacement" to me.


Theres a good chance, in the AL, hes got a sub (or right around) .300 OBP. You think Ellsbury and his .345 OBP pisses people off, wait till you see Hardy "hitting" real pitching.

[kneemoe]

I don't understand the love for Hardy.

He's had 1 above average offensive season. One average, and 3 significantly below average seasons, all in the NL. Yes, the defense is terrific, but he screams "Late inning defensive replacement" to me.


Theres a good chance, in the AL, hes got a sub (or right around) .300 OBP. You think Ellsbury and his .345 OBP pisses people off, wait till you see Hardy "hitting" real pitching.

well, you touched on it in your post - its all about his D for now, and his potential to *maybe* get back his bat (even without that he's probably an above avg SS just by virtue of his D)

but as I go back and read my own post the whole thing makes no sense, they're no longer happy with Hardy b/c they feel like they've already got a better option at SS, so if anything Lowrie would have to play 3rd and he certainly hasn't displayed the bat to stick there (or shown the health needed) Hoffman's going to be there next year... I'd delete the post but I might as well leave behind the signs that I'm an idiot. We all make bad suggestions now and again, I'm not above admitting it.

[ifmanis5]

It'll never happen but I'd ship him to KC for Soria & Butler in a heartbeat.

[mcpickl]

I saw a recent article about the % of time that Varitek called for a fast ball - very high relative to the league average. How much of his pitch calling has affected the ability of Sox pitchers to develop secondary pitches? Has this affected Papelbon?

Affected him how? In being one of the handful of best closers in baseball since he showed up in the majors?

He had one terrible game in a huge spot yesterday people, but it's still one outing. Let's relax a little bit.

[ivanvamp]

If czar's post on the main board (#7 in the SS position thread) is to be believed, maybe Theo could engineer a Paps + Lowrie + two good prospects to the Brewers for Prince and JJ Hardy. Its a long shot, but it would seemingly take care of two holes and get rid of Paps while he's still got value.
Probably a pipe dream, but isn't that what the beginning of the off season is all about?

I don't understand the drive here to "get rid" of Papelbon. Do people here realize just how elite of a relief pitcher he is? I personally don't think anyone should be "untouchable", but it would take a hell of a lot of a return for the Sox to deal him right now, in my view.

[kneemoe]

I don't understand the drive here to "get rid" of Papelbon. Do people here realize just how elite of a relief pitcher he is? I personally don't think anyone should be "untouchable", but it would take a hell of a lot of a return for the Sox to deal him right now, in my view.

Its not a matter of running the guy out of town though, its the idea of cashing in while he's still got good value. I won't tell you he sucks, he pisses me off, he runs his mouth and I dont like the dude, but he is still elite - but for how long? He's changed his mechanics to preserve his shoulder which should tell us all something.

[ivanvamp]

Its not a matter of running the guy out of town though, its the idea of cashing in while he's still got good value. I won't tell you he sucks, he pisses me off, he runs his mouth and I dont like the dude, but he is still elite - but for how long? He's changed his mechanics to preserve his shoulder which should tell us all something.

And what were the results of his changed mechanics? An utterly dominating season. Works for me.

Put it this way, when that guy is gone, we'll all *seriously* miss him.

[kneemoe]

And what were the results of his changed mechanics? An utterly dominating season. Works for me.

Put it this way, when that guy is gone, we'll all *seriously* miss him.

Not quite, he changed back halfway through the year when everyone was talking about how much he was sucking out this year....

Edit: adding the stats to back it up

QUOTE (phragle @ Oct 11 2009, 08:32 PM) He was absolutely not "very effective" before he changed his mechanics back.
FIP by month:
April 4.45
May 4.30
June 4.18
July 1.55
August 2.72
Sep/Oct 1.23

and even when he did change back to his normal mechanics he'd basically lost his splitter. do we really want a closer that's got one pitch and isn't named Mo?

This post has been edited by kneemoe: Oct 12 2009, 03:57 PM

[rman726]

Does anyone know if there is somewhere that I can bet that on opening day 2010, Papelbon will be on the Red Sox roster? Because he's going to be back.