Recent Sox-Yankee Thrillers: A History Options

[Eric Van]

After the great games Friday and Saturday, I started think about just how many damn great games these teams have played since 2003.

So I thought I'd write it all up. Here's the first installment.

I wanted an objective definition of a Thriller (because my brain works that way), and what I came up with is this, for a first draft:

1) The team that first establishes a Win Probability of 80.0% or more sees it reduced to 50.0% (or nearly so in the cases where the home team allows the score to be tied but scores in the next half-inning). Which is to say, at least one big blown lead.

2) Or, the Leverage Index reaches 5.00 (red bars on the FanGraphs game graph).

The writeups will include links to the FanGraphs summary and mention the WPA and LI criteria at the points where they matter.

Note that you can have an awfully great game and not qualify as a Thriller. In particular, a 1-run game where the losing team goes meekly in the 9th will usually not qualify. I think that's fair: we don't remember all the games where Mo got us 1-2-3 in the 9th.

I intend this to be a group effort. Although I want to do the initial writeups of each game for the sake of consistency, I encourage corrections and I especially encourage tidbits like the one I remembered about Chris Hammond's HR history. I will edit the corrections and extra flavor into the writeups and add a credits section at the end. And if anyone wants to argue that a specific regular-season game deserves to be a Thriller despite not meeting the definition, that's another great topic for discussion (and I think the odds are good I'll end up tweaking / relaxing the definition a bit).

And eventually this can go into the Wiki.

Sox-Yankee Thrillers: 2003 Regular Season

May 20, 2003: Yankees lead 6-4 with runners on the corners and one out in the top of the sixth (WP 80.0%). Sox get a run back in the bottom, and in the 7th load the bases with no outs against Jose Contreras (pitching in relief of Jeff Weaver), the key hit being a bloop Nomar double that falls in between Matsui and Jeter. After they walk Manny intentionally, David Ortiz (he wasn’t “Papi” yet*) doubles in the tying and go-ahead runs; the Sox score three more times with Sterling Hitchcock on the mound and win 10-7, Alan Embree getting the win in relief of Bruce Chen (!) and Brandon Lyon getting the cheap save. *This was Papi’s third big hit for the Sox; the first was a game-tying two-run single in the bottom of the 8th off of Lance Carter of the Rays, April 16, and the second was his go-ahead pinch-hit solo HR in the top of the 14th off of Mickey Callaway in Anaheim 4/27.

May 28, 2003: Derek Lowe is roughed up early and the Sox trail Mike Mussina 5-0 with one out and nobody on in the top of the 8th (WP 1.1%) when Shea Hillenbrand homers. Mussina comes out for the 9th and the Sox chase him with a Varitek walk and Damon single. In comes Mo, who is greeted by a Todd Walker single to load the bases and then gives up a 2-RBI Nomar single just to Jeter’s right. He gets Manny and Millar, but a line single by Hillenbrand pulls the Sox within one and they tie it when Bill Mueller (with a game-high LI of 5.91) beats out an infield single to SS. Mariano Rivera’s 5th career blown save against the Sox. Trot Nixon then singles off of 1B Todd Zeile’s glove but Hillenbrand tries to score from second and Soriano throws him out at the plate to end the inning. In the bottom of the 9th, Lyon gives up a one-out double to Matsui who goes to third on Manny’s error; they walk Soriano and Jason Giambi intentionally and, oops, Posada unintentionally. Sox lose 6-5.

July 7, 2003: Pedro vs. Mussina: the Sox score in the 1st and the Yankees in the 6th and it’s 1-1 going into the bottom of the 9th. The Yankees load ‘em up with no outs off of Byung-Hyun Kim (Matsui and Karim Garcia singles, Posada HBP); Kim fans Robin Ventura and (with an LI of 5.50) gets Curtis Pride to hit weakly to Todd Walker, but he throws home wildly and the Yankees win 2-1. (I don’t have a scoresheet for this game, so if I’ve got the details of the final play wrong, chime in! My memory is that the ball wasn’t hit hard enough for a potential inning-ending DP of any sort, so Walker went home for the force .)

July 25, 2003: Pedro vs. David Wells; the Yankees break a 1-1 tie in the top of the 7th when Enrique Wilson (who else) singles, goes to second on a WP, steals third and scores on a two-out Bernie Williams single that chases Pedro. In the bottom of the 8th, Ortiz singles off of Armando Benitez with one out. Pinch-runner Damien Jackson steals second and, after Mueller pops up, goes to third on a PB on a 2-0 pitch to Nixon. At which point Torre calls for Mo, who completes the walk (charged to Benitez) and then gives up the game-tying single to Varitek. Rivera’s 6th career BS against the Sox. He then gets Damon swinging with the go-ahead run on third. Wilson leads off the top of the 9th with a single off of Kim, steals second, goes to third as Soriano grounds to 2B, and scores on a Jeter sac fly. In the bottom of the 9th, Mo gives up a one-out line wall-ball double to Nomar and walks Manny, but fans Millar (with an LI of 7.07) and gets pinch-hitter Jeremy Giambi (hitting for Jackson) to line softly to 2B.

July 26, 2003: Sox are leading Mussina 4-0 in the bottom of the 6th behind John Burkett and even have the leadoff man on second (WP 95.2%). But the Yankees get two back in the 7th off of Embree and Todd Jones and tie it in the 8th off of Sauerbeck and Kim. In the 9th, Jeremy Giambi singles off of Benitez with one out and steals second as Varitek fans on a 3-2 pitch. They walk Damon to pitch to Damien Jackson (who had run for Walker in the 8th), and pinch-hitter David Ortiz (still not Big Papi yet, but maybe only for about a minute longer) hits an 0-2 pitch off the Monster in left-center for the game-winner.

July 27, 2003: Yankees take a 3-0 lead against Lowe and have two on and no out in the top of the 7th (WP 9.2%). But Casey Fossum gets out of the jam, and in the bottom of the frame they finally chase Jeff Weaver by getting two on with one out (Nixon an 8-pitch walk, Mueller hit by the next pitch). (At this point reading the game summary, I realize I was at this game!) Chris Hammond, who had resurrected his career spectacularly and had given up 1 HR to his last 365 batters (going back to April 7, 2002) comes into face Jason Varitek--who deposits a game-tying bomb over the Monstah. But wait, there’s more, and you couldn’t make this stuff up: Johnny Damon lines one past the Pesky Pole for the lead (the odds against hitting back-to-back homers against someone with a true HR-allowed rate that miniscule are 133,224 to 1; even if his rate is 3 per 367 batters it’s 14,964 to 1). After an IBB to Manny, Papi breaks it open with a two-out two-RBI triple (rattling around the RF corner in front of my seats) off of Jesse Orosco and the Sox win 6-4.

Amazingly, after playing three straight thrillers, the next 11 games played by the two teams fail to qualify (although two were one-run playoff games); this is the only recent season where there were no thriller games (as I’ve defined them) in August or September.

At some point I’ll do ALCS Games 6 and 7, but those are very familiar (and one is, ahem, painful). Next up, at an unknown date: seven regular-season games in 2004.

This post has been edited by Eric Van: Apr 27 2009, 09:06 AM

[drleather2001]

I can appreciate what you're trying to do, but IMO a classic requires there to be something at stake in the game that enables it to live on in the memory of the fanbase even though the particulars might get obscured (or glorified). Obviously, to Red Sox fans, it felt in 2003 that every game against the Yankees was an important one, and there was of course a level of intrigue surrounding Yankees series that eclipsed ones against all other teams. However, most of the games you've listed look simply like close games/tough losses. That's different than a game being a classic. "Classic" is inherently a subjective standard, and there has to be a moment, like Jeter's catch ("Pokey's was better"), or a great pitching duel (Clemens / Pedro), or a wonderful moment of schadenfreud (breaking up Mussina's no-hit bid in the 9th) that's singular and defining. "Rivera's 6th blown save" doesn't really live on in the collective consciousness. In other words, for 2003, I think you really have to look to the postseason to dig up some truly classic games, and there were a few. Keep in mind, also, that the regular season of 2003 was, in hindsight, a calm before the October 2003-October 2004 storm where every game against the Yankees was life and death (as opposed to just being "important"), which obscures some of what went on a little bit.

Good list of good/tough games, though!

This post has been edited by drleather2001: Apr 27 2009, 08:22 AM

[Eric Van]

I can appreciate what you're trying to do, but IMO a classic requires there to be something at stake in the game that enables it to live on in the memory of the fanbase even though the particulars might get obscured (or glorified). Obviously, to Red Sox fans, it felt in 2003 that every game against the Yankees was an important one, and there was of course a level of intrigue surrounding Yankees series that eclipsed ones against all other teams. However, most of the games you've listed look simply like close games/tough losses. That's different than a game being a classic. "Classic" is inherently a subjective standard, and there has to be a moment, like Jeter's catch ("Pokey's was better"), or a great pitching duel (Clemens / Pedro), or a wonderful moment of schadenfreud (breaking up Mussina's no-hit bid in the 9th) that's singular and defining. "Rivera's 6th blown save" doesn't really live on in the collective consciousness. In other words, for 2003, I think you really have to look to the postseason to dig up some truly classic games, and there were a few. Keep in mind, also, that the regular season of 2003 was, in hindsight, a calm before the October 2003-October 2004 storm where every game against the Yankees was life and death (as opposed to just being "important"), which obscures some of what went on a little bit.

Good list of good/tough games, though!

Good point about language. These are the Thrillers, or something like that; the bar is indeed higher for the Classics.

[Saints Rest]

I agree witht he good doctor, as I would have suggested adding to your definition that the context for the games would matter: e.g. teams within 3 games of each other in the standing, one team in first place, playoffs, etc.

[Eric Van]

I agree witht he good doctor, as I would have suggested adding to your definition that the context for the games would matter: e.g. teams within 3 games of each other in the standing, one team in first place, playoffs, etc.

I already had the idea of adding the standings at the end of each game writeup. I'll get to that later -- but I think that the context of every game these two teams have played in the 6+ seasons has been sufficiently intense, as evidenced by 10 out of 12 possible post-season appearances between them.

[behindthepen]

The earliest "thriller" that I remember attending personally was April 13, 2002

It was early in the season, so the records didn't matter much. Although Pedro's first start of the season vs. TOR was horrible (I remember the 27.00 ERA afterwards) the Wells-Pedro matchup looked sexy on paper. The bases loaded triple he gave up to Posada certainly took a lot of the excitement out of the game for the next couple of innings. The Sox would get as close as 4-3, but going into the 8th, they trailed 6-3. Wells gives up a double and gets the hook. Mendoza hits Nomar and gives up an RBI single to Manny. Enter Sandman. After Tony Clark FC's a run home (remember when he was our #5 hitter???), Shea Hillenbrand puts the Sox in the lead with a bomb over the Monster (.56 WPA). (NOT) the first time the Sox had beaten Rivera. The game is also memorable because Soriano is thrown out trying to steal 2B to end the game.

edits: according to b-ref, linked above, the yanks WP got to 93% at the beginning of the 8th.

This post has been edited by behindthepen: Apr 27 2009, 04:47 PM

[TFisNEXT]

The earliest "thriller" that I remember attending personally was April 13, 2002

It was early in the season, so the records didn't matter much. Although Pedro's first start of the season vs. TOR was horrible (I remember the 27.00 ERA afterwards) the Wells-Pedro matchup looked sexy on paper. The bases loaded triple he gave up to Posada certainly took a lot of the excitement out of the game for the next couple of innings. The Sox would get as close as 4-3, but going into the 8th, they trailed 6-3. Wells gives up a double and gets the hook. Mendoza hits Nomar and gives up an RBI single to Manny. Enter Sandman. After Tony Clark FC's a run home (remember when he was our #5 hitter???), Shea Hillenbrand puts the Sox in the lead with a bomb over the Monster (.56 WPA). First time the Sox had beaten Rivera. The game is also memorable because Soriano is thrown out trying to steal 2B to end the game.

Another "Thriller" I remember was June 4, 2001 at the Toilet. That was the game where Jimy Williams inexplicably took Pedro out after 6 innings, 10Ks and "only" 90 pitches with the Red Sox clinging to a 1 run lead. Predictably, the MFY took a 6-4 lead to the 9th. But the newly signed Manny hit a 2 run bomb off Rivera to tie it at 6. While the Hillenbrand game was a year later where we actually beat Fruitbat, this game was the first time I can remember him ever blowing a save in dramatic fashion against the Sox.

Of course in the bottom of the 9th, MFY won it on a Luis Sojo single off Rod Beck.

[ZachCrouch]

Another "Thriller" I remember was June 4, 2001 at the Toilet. That was the game where Jimy Williams inexplicably took Pedro out after 6 innings, 10Ks and "only" 90 pitches with the Red Sox clinging to a 1 run lead. Predictably, the MFY took a 6-4 lead to the 9th. But the newly signed Manny hit a 2 run bomb off Rivera to tie it at 6. While the Hillenbrand game was a year later where we actually beat Fruitbat, this game was the first time I can remember him ever blowing a save in dramatic fashion against the Sox.

Of course in the bottom of the 9th, MFY won it on a Luis Sojo single off Rod Beck.

Actually, they beat Mo when Manny lined a single up the middle on April 13, 2001 to win 3-2 at Fenway. This was Manny's first at-bat with the Sox against Rivera, and to me certainly signaled that the Sox now had a different kind of bat in the lineup.

April 13, 2001

[curly2]

Another "Thriller" I remember was June 4, 2001 at the Toilet. That was the game where Jimy Williams inexplicably took Pedro out after 6 innings, 10Ks and "only" 90 pitches with the Red Sox clinging to a 1 run lead.

I think Pedro must have let him know something was wrong. After this game, he made his next turn, then went 12 days between starts, made two more starts and went on the DL for two months, started three games and shut it down for the year.

[Spacemans Bong]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I remember the June 4 game as the game where Pedro got hurt. I forgot that he made his next start, but I'm pretty sure he got taken out for health reasons.

[paulftodd]

Actually, they beat Mo when Manny lined a single up the middle on April 13, 2001 to win 3-2 at Fenway. This was Manny's first at-bat with the Sox against Rivera, and to me certainly signaled that the Sox now had a different kind of bat in the lineup.

April 13, 2001

That brings back memories. I listened to that game on my notebook in a hotel in Singapore, and remembered thinking our luck has changed with Manny on board and my hopes soared. I was enroute to London and when I arrived at the Savoy Hotel in my Michael Moore outfit, wearing my Red Sox hat, the bell boy smirked at me in disdain and said, "The Red Sox are doing quite well, aren't they, but they always seem to play well in April ", and he smiles and winks as if to say you know its not going to last. Pretty sure he was MFY fan. Sure enough, in June Varitek cracks his elbow, Pedro goes on the DL, his last dominant start was on May 30th when he beat the MFY 3-0 w/ 13K's, his next start at the toilet he got pulled early with arm issues. The rest of that miserable season is history. I still remember it in my mind as the Savoy Curse.

This post has been edited by paulftodd: Apr 27 2009, 06:42 PM

[TFisNEXT]

Actually, they beat Mo when Manny lined a single up the middle on April 13, 2001 to win 3-2 at Fenway. This was Manny's first at-bat with the Sox against Rivera, and to me certainly signaled that the Sox now had a different kind of bat in the lineup.

April 13, 2001

Holy crap, how could I forget that game. I remember watching that as it happened on TV, but it somehow fell out of my memory.

I remember the hit, ripped right up the middle over Fruitbat's head. I was surprised they pitched to him since 1st base had been open, and Manny's run didn't matter, the winning run was already on 2nd base.