Papelbon's Inconsistency Options

[Sprowl]

Papelbon’s usage has been a recurrent debate ever since his 2006 shoulder subluxation. Should he ever pitch three days in a row? Should he pitch the afternoon after a 38-pitch save? Will we see Takashi Saito close on Sunday if a save situation arises?

Papelbon’s high-anxiety save against the Angels required 38 pitches. He showed no signs of tiring, with velocity rising to 95, but he didn’t have his strikeout fastball. Papelbon’s release points are unusually variable, and to my eye, his arm slot appears a bit lower than ¾. In the past that has been a signal that Papelbon’s fastball will be sailing, but sacrificing vertical motion. It looks impressive to see the horizontal movement, but historically batters have not swung and missed his sailing fastball, which behaves a bit like a sinker, while they often miss the rising four-seamer. A sinker is a nice pitch to have, but it’s hard to strike batters out by throwing sinkers up in the strike zone. His off-speed pitches (splitter ~89 mph; slider ~84) were very effective by themselves, generating plenty of swinging strikes. It was the fastball, both location and movement, that gave him problems.



This post has been edited by Sprowl: May 13 2009, 11:40 AM

[CaptainLaddie]

Is it possible Paps is nursing an injury and not saying anything? I seem to remember (correct me if I'm wrong) that Pedro often, when hurting, dropped his arm to a 3/4 slot - is this possibly what is happening with Paps, considering that he didn't have this "blow by you" fastball today?

This is entirely theoretical. Blast away.

[RedOctober3829]

This is one of the advantages to signing Saito. If Papelbon does go for an extended appearance there is no need to throw him 2 days in a row. You just put Saito in Paps' spot and have Okajima and Masterson to match up in the 7th and 8th innings because of the 1.2 IP Ramon Ramirez threw today.

I don't think it's a big deal that Papelbon didn't have the location on his fastball today. He hasn't worked since Opening Day so you would expect some rust. I think Tek screwed him with the pitch location on the 0-2 pitch to Hunter. His secondary pitches were good enough to get him through today and I hope he continues to show the splitter and develop the slider so he has two other out pitches.

[kmueller]

Eric Karros, on the FOX broadcast, just about drove this point into the ground, but is there a reason he did not try and vary his location at all?

I know he wasn't able to fine tune where he wanted it, but there was nothing in the dirt, above eye level, or down and away.

I think there is very little chance that he goes tomorrow, certainly one of the things they are hoping Saito can do. 38 pitches is close to 3 innings of work...

[koufax32]

Eric Karros, on the FOX broadcast, just about drove this point into the ground, but is there a reason he did not try and vary his location at all?

I know he wasn't able to fine tune where he wanted it, but there was nothing in the dirt, above eye level, or down and away.

I think there is very little chance that he goes tomorrow, certainly one of the things they are hoping Saito can do. 38 pitches is close to 3 innings of work...

I thought this as well until I realized what tek may have been doing on his pitch calling. It's pretty safe to say Papelbon had very poor command of the FB. His splitter command has always been iffy too. My guess is that Tek took the approach (mentioned by Karros IIRC) that if Paps was to miss it would be farther outside instead of a meatball down the middle. While that was frustrating to watch in the Kendrick at-bat it did the job. today might be an example of Tek's lauded game managing. If so then kudos.

[Ed Hillel]

I thought this as well until I realized what tek may have been doing on his pitch calling. It's pretty safe to say Papelbon had very poor command of the FB. His splitter command has always been iffy too. My guess is that Tek took the approach (mentioned by Karros IIRC) that if Paps was to miss it would be farther outside instead of a meatball down the middle. While that was frustrating to watch in the Kendrick at-bat it did the job. today might be an example of Tek's lauded game managing. If so then kudos.

As Sprowl mention, Papelbon's armslot was a bit low today, and that was causing him to push pitches towards the right-handed batters box. I think that the reason Tek kept calling for pitches outside was that he was scared Papelbon might hit Kendrick and tie the game if he went inside. If he realized that, though, I really don't understand why he couldn't have put his mitt at the neck of the batter when he did his half-crouch, rather than at the letters. The armslot issue was also keeping the fastball from rising.

As for Paps and his health, I'm not really concerned at this point. If and until we see a trend develop, this is just a bad day for the guy.

[yecul]

Papelbon's success was always driven by his electric fastball. Location, secondary pitches... all irrelevant. He'd throw that fastball in there with such life that he'd get plenty of swings and misses even when missing his spots and not coming close to the strike zone.

For whatever reason, that isn't happening right now. Holding back? Injured? Hard to say right now, but the tightrope won't be a rare thing to be walking for now.

[OttoC]

...As for Paps and his health, I'm not really concerned at this point. If and until we see a trend develop, this is just a bad day for the guy.

Except that he had some rough outings towards the end of spring training, which makes me wonder.

[sfip]

For whatever reason, that isn't happening right now. Holding back? Injured? Hard to say right now, but the tightrope won't be a rare thing to be walking for now.

Or could it partly be because the Red Sox have started the season against the two teams with the best records in the AL last year?

[paulftodd]

Or could it partly be because the Red Sox have started the season against the two teams with the best records in the AL last year?

Well, TB is without BJ Upton, and the Angels w/o Teixeira, not to mention K-Rod and 3/5 of their starting rotation.

Also, according to this

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerNews?st...antasyNews=true

News: Jonathan Papelbon states that he is fine despite a rumor circulating that he is dealing with a shoulder problem, according to the Boston Globe.

Only a rumour of course, but his ST and this appearance suggests something is up. Might be nothing, too early to say, it's just one appearance.

This post has been edited by paulftodd: Apr 11 2009, 11:32 PM

[YTF]

Well, TB is without BJ Upton, and the Angels w/o Teixeira, not to mention K-Rod and 3/5 of their starting rotation.

Not quite sure what any of this has to do with Paps. No guarantee that he would see either Upton or Teixeira in any given save op vs Tampa or The Angels and the Angels' pitchers have no bearing on Pap's performance.

[Frisbetarian]

The rumor about his shoulder was from March 20, and nothing has been said since as far as I know. I wouldn't put much credence in that story.

I thought Papelbon was opening up his front shoulder early yesterday, and it cost him control/command. He was throwing hard - avg 4 seem fastball was over 94 MPH per the tremendous BrooksBaseball.net, and he had plenty of movement on the ball - perhaps too much horizontally, but he was all over the place with his pitches. No matter how good the fastball, no pitcher will have success at this level unless they have command.

I guess I'm not overly concerned at this point, and would think (hope) this is just a bad day, but it is certainly something that bears watching.

[Lose Remerswaal]

I thought this as well until I realized what tek may have been doing on his pitch calling. It's pretty safe to say Papelbon had very poor command of the FB. His splitter command has always been iffy too. My guess is that Tek took the approach (mentioned by Karros IIRC) that if Paps was to miss it would be farther outside instead of a meatball down the middle. While that was frustrating to watch in the Kendrick at-bat it did the job. today might be an example of Tek's lauded game managing. If so then kudos.

So if the offspeed stuff was fooling guys, yet Tek called for fastball after fastball after fastball (including the famous "I'm going to stand straight up and you're going to try to blow a headhigh fastball by this guy (which never works but we'll keep trying it, didja see how far Hunter hit that one?") then lauded doesn't mean what I think it means.

Unless you were being sarcastic, in which case Kudos to you.

This post has been edited by Lose Remerswaal: Apr 12 2009, 07:28 AM

[paulftodd]

I thought this as well until I realized what tek may have been doing on his pitch calling. It's pretty safe to say Papelbon had very poor command of the FB. His splitter command has always been iffy too. My guess is that Tek took the approach (mentioned by Karros IIRC) that if Paps was to miss it would be farther outside instead of a meatball down the middle. While that was frustrating to watch in the Kendrick at-bat it did the job. today might be an example of Tek's lauded game managing. If so then kudos.

The dominant Paps that I remember relied on a splitter that batters chased outside (down) of the zone, and also caused batters to chase his 4 seamer outside (up) of the zone and made it more effective as hitters had to respect the splitter with 2 strikes . I have to imagine Tek and Paps discuss the game plan, and that Tek calls the pitches Pap feels most comfortable with. For some reason, he has lost confidence in the splitter, or there is some other reason he does not use it as much, but it was a great weapon when he had it.

The rumor about his shoulder was from March 20, and nothing has been said since as far as I know. I wouldn't put much credence in that story.

I thought Papelbon was opening up his front shoulder early yesterday, and it cost him control/command. He was throwing hard - avg 4 seem fastball was over 94 MPH per the tremendous BrooksBaseball.net, and he had plenty of movement on the ball - perhaps too much horizontally, but he was all over the place with his pitches. No matter how good the fastball, no pitcher will have success at this level unless they have command.

I guess I'm not overly concerned at this point, and would think (hope) this is just a bad day, but it is certainly something that bears watching.

Changing arm slot, poor command, diminished performance are all indicators of injury, although other factors could cause this, such as mechanical problems as you indicated. The Red Sox do not exactly talk about injuries much, so the lack of anything being said by the local media means squat. Paps going YTY with his contract is not exactly going to be honest if he thinks he can pitch through something.

Not quite sure what any of this has to do with Paps. No guarantee that he would see either Upton or Teixeira in any given save op vs Tampa or The Angels and the Angels' pitchers have no bearing on Pap's performance.

You can see I was replying to a comment that we faced the 2 best teams in baseball which hardly has to do with Paps, unless it meant TBR's and LAA bottom of the lineup was the best in baseball. And the rest of my comment had to do with Paps. E.D.

[YTF]

The dominant Paps that I remember relied on a splitter that batters chased outside (down) of the zone, and also caused batters to chase his 4 seamer outside (up) of the zone and made it more effective as hitters had to respect the splitter with 2 strikes . I have to imagine Tek and Paps discuss the game plan, and that Tek calls the pitches Pap feels most comfortable with. For some reason, he has lost confidence in the splitter, or there is some other reason he does not use it as much, but it was a great weapon when he had it.




Changing arm slot, poor command, diminished performance are all indicators of injury, although other factors could cause this, such as mechanical problems as you indicated. The Red Sox do not exactly talk about injuries much, so the lack of anything being said by the local media means squat. Paps going YTY with his contract is not exactly going to be honest if he thinks he can pitch through something.




You can see I was replying to a comment that we faced the 2 best teams in baseball which hardly has to do with Paps, unless it meant TBR's and LAA bottom of the lineup was the best in baseball. And the rest of my comment had to do with Paps. E.D.

I get that the rest of your thread was Papelbon related that's why I only quoted the part that didn't seem to be. I also got that you were responding to the comment about facing the two of best teams in baseball. That said your response still doesn't make sense to me.

[Sprowl]

There was some difference of opinion in today's game thread on Papelbon's performance against the A's. To my eyes, Papelbon looked much better than in his save against the Angels. His arm slot was higher and more consistent, his motion was more compact, his fastball was rising not sailing, and his location was good. Compare the release point data against the A's with the same chart against the Angels, and the difference is striking. Against the Angels, Papelbon's release is lower than 6 feet, and anywhere from 2 to 3 feet off center -- that's an enormous range for an experienced pitcher. Against the A's, the release is usually 6 feet or higher, and tightly clustered around 2.5 feet off center.

He got no strikeouts, but he pitched well. At 16 pitches and pitching with 2 days rest, I thought he should have pitched another inning before Tito went to the Human White Flag, Javier Lopez.

[Sprowl]

Papelbon got his third save with relatively little drama, throwing 10 fastballs (velocity 94-96), 2 sliders (one of which Wigginton hit for a ground-ball single), and 1 splitter in the dirt. The two flyballs by Scott and Zaun were pretty well hit, but BABIP smiled on Papelbon and directed them to Drew's glove. Papelbon's release point was fairly consistent, but a little lower than when he has his strikeout fastball -- he continues to have trouble maintaining a 3/4 arm angle. That may explain why he's getting lots of horizontal fade, probably at the expense of vertical rise.

[Sprowl]

Papelbon still isn't getting many swinging strikes, but as long as the Yankees go down to humiliating defeat, who the fükk cares? Papelbon's motion was compact, but his arm slot appeared a little lower than ideal. Every pitch was a fastball, gradually climbing from 93.4 to 97.1, except for one splitter in the dirt to Teixeira, just before he struck out on the only swinging strike that Papelbon rang up on the evening -- also the highest pitch that Papelbon threw. Let Teixeira's first encounter with Papelbon be an oft-repeated precedent.

[paulftodd]

Papelbon still isn't getting many swinging strikes, but as long as the Yankees go down to humiliating defeat, who the fükk cares? Papelbon'sbut his arm slot appeared a little lower than ideal. Every pitch was a fastball, gradually climbing from 93.4 to 97.1, except for one splitter in the dirt to Teixeira, just before he struck out on the only swinging strike that Papelbon rang up on the evening -- also the that Papelbon threw. Let Teixeira's first encounter with Papelbon be an oft-repeated precedent.

The splitter sets up the high FB and makes it more effective. When he throws more splitters, he gets more swings and misses on the FB. Teixeira was 0-2 against Paps before tonight, this is his first K against Paps though

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

One thing I noticed in Paps' appearance today is that there's been a small tweak in his motion. He is now holding the glove up around the chin before starting the motion home; he used to hold it down by his waist. Just a small thing I picked up today.

Papelbon is not getting anywhere near his normal swings and misses so far this season. He's got only 5 Ks in 7.1 IP. He's already walked 3 batters; last year he walked only 8 in 69.1 IP. Something is up with him. His fastball doesn't have the devastating late movement that it's had in recent years, and he's labored to get through most of his appearances.

Something to monitor.