Russell Martin: Do we want him? Can we get him? Options

[Corsi Combover]

First, Joel Sherman of the NY Post drops this nugget:

You want a surprise name that could end up out on the trade market? How about Dodgers catcher Russell Martin? Rival executives say the Dodgers are not overly enamored with his makeup and at a time when front-line catchers are hard to find, Los Angeles could decide to see what his value is. The Tigers, Marlins and Reds are all looking for catching, and the Red Sox would be, too, if free agent Jason Varitek departed.

Source: http://www.nypost.com/seven/10192008/sport...4316.htm?page=2


Now Jon Heyman comes out with this:

Martin wearing out welcome in L.A.?

The Dodgers were disappointed by the regression of catcher Russell Martin, who in the words of one Dodgers-connected person was "just another catcher'' this year. Only a year ago Martin was an excellent two-way player who won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger and appeared on the verge of superstardom. The New York Post reported that the Dodgers might even consider trading him.

Martin, Matt Kemp and to a lesser degree Andre Ethier still need to do some growing up, people familiar with the Dodgers say -- though the overall performance of the talented trio improved once Ramirez joined the team. James Loney, the fourth young Dodger stud, is said by team officials not to have been infested by the same maturity malady that has affected the others.

Source: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writ...an.scoop/1.html

[Corsi Combover]

Mitchel Lichtman (MGL) weighs in:

What the hell is either Heyman or the “Dodgers-connected person” talking about? The guy is 25 and a half years old, he has an OPS of .791 in his rookie year, .843 in 07, and .781 this year, and he is a freaking catcher! I don’t even see any poor garbage stats this year to give the impression that he “regressed” or had a bad year. He batted .280, hit 13 HR and drove in 69 runs. Did I mention that he is a freaking catcher? And did anyone notice his 90 walks and 5 HBP? That is why his OPS undervalues his offense this year, as opposed to last year and the year before. In 06, combined with his minor league numbers, his offensive lwts per 150 games was -3.7. In 07, it was +12, and in 08 it was +8. That is a “regression?” That is “just a catcher?” Holy crap!

I’ve mentioned this before, but if a guy hits .850 (in a league where the average player hits .750) in his first year (or in any year, and that’s all we know), and he gets better in talent (say by 20 OPS points), how many teams do you think understand that he is supposed to hit around .820 the next year, a “regression” of 30 points?

For those of you who are just casual readers, let me repeat that: If a player hits .850 (OPS) his first year and we KNOW (G-d comes down and tells us) that his true talent is going to increase the next year by 20 points (maybe because he is on the up-slope of his aging curve, like Martin presumably is, but it doesn’t matter why), then we expect him to hit around:

.820 the next year. Yes, we expect that a player who gets better in true talent will hit 30 points less than he hit the year before!

So, the “Dodger-connected source,” assuming that this quote is reasonably accurate, is a complete idiot on so many fronts, that if he is a “high-up” in the organization, I feel sorry for the organization and its fans.

(BTW, when I say that an organization, manager or GM (or whatever) is bad or good, that has very little to do with their short-term, and in some cases, long-term, success, for several reasons: One, there are so many other factors in a team’s short-term (and long-term) success, not the least being plain old luck (or payroll, etc.). Two, if I say that an organization is “bad” I am usually talking about one particular area. There are many other areas, like scouting and player development, in which they could be very good. Third, since I am not really privy to what is going on inside an organization, and reports from the media could easily be inaccurate or misleading, you probably have to “regress” my assessments quite a bit.)

Source: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/..._nut_case_here/

[Judge Mental13]

Odd quotes released by the Dodgers, whom I have to assume are just gauging the market and hoping someone throws them a package that's entirely to much to give up for Martin.

If they were seriously looking to trade him I don't quite get the point of the "Just another catcher" comments and why they would want any prospective suitor in a trade scenario to think that about him, or to think that THEY think that about him. I really doubt he's going anywhere, although I would be interested in knowing what LA might consider a reasonable haul from Boston for his services. They certainly wouldn't want any more outfielders, so Ellsbury and Bay are likely not needed. I'd imagine Lowrie's name has come up, as he is a talented young infielder, and I can only assume just about all of our pitching prospects would at least be named, if not invoked during a negotiation with LA for Martin.

I'd love to have Martin, I think he is a special player and I really enjoy watching him. I would part with Lowrie and just about any two of our young pitchers/pitching prospects not named Masterson to get him. I think the sooner something gets done the better, because the Varitek saga is one that could really polarize the fanbases and turn into some big national hoopla if Tek is not offered a contract. The best course of action is replace him first and then let him walk. Cut everyone off at the "It's just business" talking point, we got a younger, better, catcher, and while we appreciate what Tek's done for us re-signing him now wouldn't make any sense since we now have a new starting catcher. That would really be a lot easier to deal with than a whole winter of will they or won't they.

[Harry Hooper]

Is the subtext of Heyman's piece that Martin, Kemp, and Ethier were enjoying L.A.'s party scene too much before Manny showed up, and they realized they could make a postseason run?

[koufax32]

I would absolutely love to have a player like Martin become a part of the Sox. He's a young player who probably will give you a .285, .375, .800 line for a good 6-8 years. At his age he improve on that as well. Martin stats
I seem to remember a TV discussion (all-star game?) in which there was talk that Martin's pitch calling rivalled that of Jason Varitek. Does anyone else remember what I'm talkng about?
Unfotrtunately I'm not sure there's much to get excited about here. I jsut can't see an organization like LA give him up for anything less than a king's ransom. It's not their MO to go into "what the heck let's go for it" mode. The only way that could change is if Mike Lowell was somehow involved in the discussion on top of a high level prospect.

[Corsi Combover]

A possible (and most likely, IMO) reason for Martin's downtick in SLG in 2008 was likely that he was just flat out tired. In 2007, he played in 151 games, and followed it up with 155 in 2008.

For perspective, Varitek's career high in games played is 144, back in 1999. Since 2004, he has never appeared in more than 137.

Further backing this up are his 1st Half/2nd Half splits from both 2007 and 2008:

[codebox]Russell Martin
1st Half/2nd Half Splits:

2007: AVG OBP SLG
1st Half: .306 .374 .492
2nd Half: .275 .375 .438

2008: AVG OBP SLG
1st Half: .294 .394 .436
2nd Half: .260 .371 .336[/codebox]

Obviously, the 2008 2nd Half numbers, as expected, are more pronounced. This is just the case of a guy getting tired, IMO.

What is most reassuring is that Martin's BB% and SO% (and thus his BB/K ratio) actually improved quite significantly in 2008.

The funny thing is, Wakefield (and his caddy) begins to look a lot more attractive when you can start an above-average catcher the other 130 or so games. Russell Martin is a great catcher; he was just flat out overworked these past two seasons.

[maufman]

Odd quotes released by the Dodgers, whom I have to assume are just gauging the market and hoping someone throws them a package that's entirely to much to give up for Martin.

I lost the links, but a couple Dodger bloggers think this story is more indicative of in-fighting in the Dodgers' organization than it is of the FO's opinion of Russell Martin. Apparently, it's an open secret in L.A. that Tommy Lasorda is unhappy with his role in the organization. Maybe Southland SoSHers can shed some light on whether this might explain the Post and SI leaks.

This post has been edited by maufman: Oct 25 2008, 01:45 PM

[grantb]

I didn't realize .280 13 HR 69 RBI 87 R and 18 SB in 155 (138 starts at C) games qualifies Martin as "just another catcher."
If the Red Sox can acquire him, I think they need to do so as soon as possible.
Only time will tell if the Dodgers are serious about trading him.

Obviously, the 2008 2nd Half numbers, as expected, are more pronounced. This is just the case of a guy getting tired, IMO.

Not that you're wrong, but it could just be part of his development. Like Youkilis, he may happen to 'grow out of' his decreased second half production. Of course catcher is a completely different bag of balls the first base, and fatigue could certainly be a part of it.

This post has been edited by grantb: Oct 25 2008, 01:49 PM

[Papelbon's P...]

Unfotrtunately I'm not sure there's much to get excited about here. I jsut can't see an organization like LA give him up for anything less than a king's ransom. It's not their MO to go into "what the heck let's go for it" mode. The only way that could change is if Mike Lowell was somehow involved in the discussion on top of a high level prospect.

Mike Lowell has just about as little trade value as you could imagine right now. Even heavily subsidized, you can't expect to get much back for a 35 year old 3B with a serious hip injury. No one knows if he will bounce back fully from it or not or even be ready for opening day next year.

The discussion needs to begin with the Sox assuming Andruw Jones and his dead weight contract. The Dodgers have been crying poor mouth all season and freeing up some serious cash would go a long way for them, especially when htey have some big holes to fill from FAs (Blake, Manny, Furcal, Lowe, etc.). They would probably be smarter to move Pierre, but Torre seems to like him and if they lose Manny, they'll need Pierre to start in CF and be less of a black hole than Jones would likely be.

Buchholz + low level guy for Martin/Jones would possibly get them on the phone.

This post has been edited by Papelbon's Poutine: Oct 25 2008, 02:21 PM

[ookami7m]

To answer the thread title questions: Yes I think the Sox would want Martin, and if the reports are true he's 'available'.

I get to listen to a decent number of Dodgers games on the radio on my way home from work, and I see them play the D'backs a dozen+ times per year. I don't have the statistical acumen, but most of that is covered above. I can relate what I see though - and that is a solid defensive catcher (nothing spectacular but slightly better than average) who hits line drives all over the place when his swing is working. When its not he hits a lot of weak pop ups and flares. He's always seemed to be a bit streaky over the series I've seen him play. He throws well from behind the plate and actually has good baserunning skills.

I think the only way the Sox end up with him without parting with the whole farm system is taking back either Andruw or Juan Pierre's deals. I'd be more willing to take back Andruw as there is at least a chance his skills come back - Pierre never had any past speed.

[jtn46]

I think the only way the Sox end up with him without parting with the whole farm system is taking back either Andruw or Juan Pierre's deals. I'd be more willing to take back Andruw as there is at least a chance his skills come back - Pierre never had any past speed.

I think you take Jones back without any real intention of him ever playing for the Red Sox. If he wants to accept an assignment to Pawtucket making $15 million, fine, if not, he can try to find a bench job with a major league team on the Red Sox dime. In no way should he be given a spot on the 25-man roster. I think it's a good plan, though, and I imagine the Dodgers would be a favorite to land Varitek if the Red Sox acquired Martin.

[Bob Montgomery...]

I'd love to have Russell Martin as our next catcher.

Jones has a horrible contract, and getting rid of it would have a lot of value to the Dodgers. I would think the Red Sox are one of only a few teams looking for a catcher who would possibly eat the Jones contract as a means to getting Martin. It really makes no sense to me that the Dodgers truly would want to move Martin. If, however, they are so inclined, and they could get rid of a huge albatross contract as well as getting someone like Buchholz in return, it would seem as if the Red Sox are a very good potential trade partner.

[SoxFanInCali]

The Dodgers are a big market club that makes money. While I'm sure they would love to dump the Pierre/Jones contracts, I don't think they are going to give up Major League talent for just prospects and being able to dump a contract. That fan base thrives on marquee names, and if they were to trade Martin (which I still don't believe they will do) I would think they would be looking for Major League talent back. They need a 3rd baseman, so I could see them asking for Youk.

If the Dodgers break the bank and sign Manny to a big deal, they may be more willing to give something up to dump a contract, but until then, I don't see it.

[mabrowndog]

Wow. Someone "connected with the Dodgers" actually believes that Martin was "just another catcher?" Man, I just love it when morons get jobs in MLB front offices.

PROS

* There's a lot to love about this kid. Inside Edge rates his plate discipline, 2-strike tendency and clutch tendency with straight "A"s. In contrast, the grades for our resident gritty Captain would get him expelled.

* In an extreme pitcher's park he's put up a .281/.376/.426/.803 line, and each of his three seasons at Dodger Stadium have been pretty consistent. His power fell off a bit this year but nothing so dramatic as to elicit the comments of the buffoon quoted above -- .280/.385/.396/.781.

* His numbers would be much better if Torre hadn't tried to get cute with his batting slot. Martin was used in every place in the order this year, including an inexplicable 93 PA in 20 games as the leadoff hitter. He went 2-for-17 as LA's game-opening batter and had an overall .219/.376/.301/.678 line in the #1 spot. Otherwise his line was .290/386/.410/.796.

* Another example of his misuse is that he's caught 294 games the past two seasons -- 281 as a starter. Predictably, he's worn down in the second half with a .268/.373/.388/.761 line after putting up an aggregate first half of .300/.384/.463/.847. Hell, even the Global Grand Marshall of Leaving Players In Too Long agrees completely with this:

Former Los Angeles Dodgers manager Grady Little used to fret about relying so much on catcher Russell Martin, knowing the rigors of the position were bound to wear down his young star.

Sure enough, Martin's batting average declined 31 points from the first half of 2007 to the second, and his power numbers also went down as he caught 145 games.

* From that same article, Martin clearly understands that it's not always about making bone-crushing contact with the ball:

Once Manny Ramirez arrived in a July 31 trade, Martin's role became less run producer and more table-setter. And while he's not a big believer in one hitter's presence helping others get better pitches to hit, Martin realizes how the task changes depending on the spot in the batting order.

"Hitting in front of him (Ramirez), my job is just to get on base," Martin said. "My main goal there is to create opportunities. I kind of force myself to take some pitches, because I'm not afraid to hit with two strikes."

* A converted third baseman, Martin played 11 games there last year. Of course, he also made 3 errors so he needs some work. Still, that flexibility is a nice plus.

* One of the few head-scratchers with his offense was the reversal this year of his L/R splits. Prior to this season, his career lines were .270/.342/.423/.765 vs RHP and .360/.455/.573/1.029 vs LHP. His 2008 numbers: .291/.392/.393/.786 vs RHP, .253/.365/.403/.767 vs LHP.

Well, his improvement vs righties doesn't seem to be a fluke produced by hitting a few guys especially well. Of the 161 RHPs he faced, 46 of them were one-shot deals. Against them he went 14-for-34 with 11 walks. In fact, his worst struggles came against 6 righties: Matt Cain, Dan Haren, Aaron Cook, Kevin Correia, Bronson Arroyo and Cha Seung Baek. Against these guys he was 5-for-49 with a double and 8 walks. Versus the other 155 RHPs, his line was .317/.415/.431/.846 in 412 PA. That's a fantastic indicator of his progress.

FWIW, here are all the NL RHH who had a higher OPS than .846 with at least 150 PA vs RHP:

CODE

RHH        PA       OPS
Manny      160    1.316
Pujols     446    1.063
Ludwick    409     .985
Hanley     531     .983
Holliday   476     .963
Uggla      464     .955
Aramis     492     .954
Bay        354     .953
C. Lee     366     .930
Nady       277     .907
Braun      478     .894
Dukes      237     .892
Glaus      456     .891
Tatis      182     .890
Iannetta   308     .878
Spilborghs 176     .854
Soto       451     .852

That's some pretty good company. Yes, this is shameless cherry-picking to a degree, but the comparison has some value because Manny was the only one to play in as crappy a hitter's park. The two catchers on the list, Soto and Iannetta, played in relative bandboxes.

CONS

* Since I'm not the Iraqi Information Minister, there's definitely a downside to Martin's plate approach. He crushes fastballs, but has been woefully inept against breaking stuff. As I noted above, he hit righties much better this season. Unfortunately there's a clip side to that.

So what happened against LPHs? My guess is that it comes full-circle to his problems with breaking balls. He faced 55 lefties this year. He teed off on Jeff Francis, Wade LeBlanc, Doug Davis, Paul Maholm, Joe Saunders, Jonathan Sanchez, Scott Olsen and Wandy Rodriguez. Against these 8 southpaws he went 22-for-48 with a dozen walks and 3 homers for a .458/.567/.792/1.359 line. Versus the other 46 LHPs he was 17-for-106 with 14 walks and 2 HR -- a line of .160/.258/.255/.513. So based on this assessment from Inside Edge, I'm assuming the word spread that sweeping curves and low sliders are his Achilles heel:



* According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Phils scouts were able to exploit Martin's tendencies in the NLCS:

In the first inning of that game, the Dodgers' Manny Ramirez drew a two-out walk. The next batter, Russell Martin, worked a 2-2 count against Cole Hamels. The Phillies' scouting report on Martin, a righthanded hitter, said that he became very aggressive with two strikes and often tried to hook the ball to the left. Aware of the report, Phillies coaches moved third baseman Pedro Feliz a half-step toward the line. Martin pounded a ground ball to third, and Feliz threw to second to force out Ramirez.

* There are apparently concerns over his work behind the plate:

John (Boston): Buster - maybe it's my east coast ignorance here, but why would the Dodgers consider moving Martin? I've only read great things about him, and his numbers last year were very good. He's gotta still be at least a top 5 catcher in mlb - was it a lack of consistency this year? Please enlighten me...thanks.

Buster Olney: John: There are those within that organization that would like to see him make a greater commitment to his defense. I'll leave it at that.

* After Chad Billingsley's NLCS loss, the pitcher seemed to call out Martin's game plan:

But after the game, Billingsley was awkward when answering questions and unable to provide any details other than saying that catcher Russell Martin calls the games behind the plate and that "pitch selection" was most likely the culprit.

"I felt good; I felt I had good stuff," said Billingsley, who added that a lot of the hits went the other way or found holes. "I didn't do well [Friday]and I didn't get the job done and I think pitch selection was kind of what the problem was."

He also said that when he's not feeling comfortable with what Martin's calling behind the plate, he'll shake him off. When Martin was asked whether Billingsley was shaking him off, he said, "Not necessarily. Not that I noticed. Not more than usual."

It was an awkward moment because the next question for Martin was about what Billingsley had said.

"When you're not throwing the ball like you want to, it's easy to second-guess yourself," Martin said in a very mature, politically correct response. "If it works, it works; if it doesn't, it doesn't. We're going to have to make adjustments."

* According to SI.com's Tom Verducci, Martin let his frustrations get the better of him:

Dodgers catcher Russ Martin is 25 and also may have a bright future, but he showed in the NLCS that he has some maturing to do as a big league ballplayer. Martin was overly emotional throughout the series -- an especially bad trait for a catcher -- and made no adjustments at the plate, continuing to chase pitches with an anxious pull mentality. Martin was not equipped for the important job of hitting fourth behind Manny Ramirez. Batting behind Ramirez in four games, Martin hit with 18 runners on, including Ramirez 12 times. He went 0 for 10 and drove in only one of those 18 runners, that with a groundball out. The more cool-headed James Loney would have been the much better choice by manager Joe Torre to hit behind Ramirez.

* I'm betting his road performance this year added to the alarm voiced by the Dodgers' informant. Not that it was horrible, mind you, but after a .329/.394/.538/.932 line in 2007, his .284/.383/.404/.786 this season doesn't look quite so hot. Bear in mind that while Martin had to play in a couple of other pitchers' parks occupied by NL West foes (SD and SF), those were pretty much neutralized by the offensive stimulus gained in ARI and COL.

* For those thinking that Fenway would be a boon for his numbers, turning would-be fly-outs at Dodger Stadium into smashes off the Monster, not so fast. According to his MLB.com hit chart, in three seasons he's only hit 10 fly ball outs to left or left-center deeper than 300 feet at Chavez Ravine.

So do we want him? Well, just imagine what playing in a better run-scoring environment, in a deeper lineup, will do for him. And if he can tame his breaking ball weaknesses, we might be looking at Mike Piazza redux.

I can understand the concerns over his defensive commitment, game-calling, maturity, and bad habits. But he's only 25, and I believe the Sox' clubhouse and leadership could help turn some of those perceived shortcomings around.

I agree the Dodgers would prefer MLB-ready talent, since they stand to lose up to 12 players to free agency this winter. But I really believe that if the Sox take on Jones' contract, they won't have to up the ante substantially to land Martin. If the Sox include Youkilis, that's a sure sign Teixeira will be wearing a Boston uniform in Fort Myers four months from now.

But here's where it gets interesting: if the Sox included Youks and some combination of Buchholz, Argenis Diaz and cash, would the Dodgers take Lugo to play short for the next couple of years?

Of all the Hot Stove scenarios, I find this one the most interesting.

This post has been edited by mabrowndog: Oct 25 2008, 06:41 PM

[OCD SS]

I agree the Dodgers would prefer MLB-ready talent, since they stand to lose up to 12 players to free agency this winter. But I really believe that if the Sox take on Jones' contract, they won't have to up the ante substantially to land Martin. If the Sox include Youkilis, that's a sure sign Teixeira will be wearing a Boston uniform in Fort Myers four months from now.

But here's where it gets interesting: if the Sox included Youks and some combination of I am an Idiot, Argenis Diaz and cash, would the Dodgers take Lugo to play short for the next couple of years?

Of all the Hot Stove scenarios, I find this one the most interesting.

Assuming that the Dodgers are actually willing to deal him, wiith catching so thin across the league, I think one of the questions we should be asking is who else would be trying to put together an offer.

As to dealing Youks, I have a very hard time seeing the Sox deal him without having Teixeira already signed, which would mean that a Martin trade would take a very long time to complete. This would have a ripple effect for the Sox plans through the offseason, as they could complicate their dealing with Tek (almost forcing them to bring him back, unless they see a Brown/ Kottaras platoon as a fallback option). In contrast, a deal with Texas could get done much quicker. Given that Salty (who the Sox reportedly prefer) would probably cost less than Martin, and would solve the "catching problem" very quickly, who would you prefer?

[Corsi Combover]

Any chance the Dodgers are interested in signing Varitek? McCourt loves him some former Red Sox, and perhaps they feel he could do a solid job nurturing their young pitchers (Kershaw, Billingsley, et al). Might make some sense, considering they seem to be upset with Martin over his defense/handling of pitchers.

This post has been edited by Corsi Combover: Oct 25 2008, 06:19 PM

[mabrowndog]

Any chance the Dodgers are interested in signing Varitek? McCourt loves him some former Red Sox, and perhaps they feel he could do a solid job nurturing their young pitchers (Kershaw, Billingsley, et al). Might make some sense, considering they seem to be upset with Martin over his defense/handling of pitchers.

I addessed this a few weeks back. if Tek leaves, I think LA is the most likely landing spot.

[maufman]

Given that Salty (who the Sox reportedly prefer) would probably cost less than Martin, and would solve the "catching problem" very quickly, who would you prefer?

Depends how you define "cost." If we absorb the last year of Andruw Jones's contract in the deal, it's not clear we'd have to part with more talent to land Martin than Saltalamacchia. Yes, absorbing Andruw's contract ($18mm, iirc) involves an opportunity cost, but (a) there aren't a lot of attractive options for deploying that money without making long-term commitments, and (b) I'm not intrigued by any of the top-flight FAs this winter, unless the economy brings their demands down much more sharply than I think it will.

If all other things are equal (which they may not be), I'd gladly pay $18mm to get Martin instead of Salty. The cost to the FO (i.e., in dollars) would be largely offset by Tek and G38 coming off the books, and the opportunity cost, imo, is much less than a lot of people think.

* There are apparently concerns over his work behind the plate:

Olney's reference to "those within that organization" makes me think the bloggers I mentioned upthread are onto something, and that Martin isn't really available. That doesn't mean I'm not intrigued.

This post has been edited by maufman: Oct 25 2008, 07:04 PM

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

I addessed this a few weeks back. if Tek leaves, I think LA is the most likely landing spot.

Gammo has also been pimping a Tek to LA move for a while now. If the Dodgers want to trade catchers with the Sox, I'd be all for it.

[OCD SS]

Gammo has also been pimping a Tek to LA move for a while now. If the Dodgers want to trade catchers with the Sox, I'd be all for it.

Maybe the Dodgers will throw Chris Withrow into the deal.