2008 ALCS: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Options

[Corsi Combover]

Oh good, so who closes next year when Paps is on the DL?

Daniel Bard.

[knucklecup]

Not sure where to put this..

20th October, 2008 - 1:02 pm
Boston Channel - Manny Ramirez did not watch Game 7 of the ALCS, but he was pleased with the result, a Red Sox loss.

Ramirez was asked for his reaction to the Tampa Bay victory and he replied "Good, good."

[NomarRS05]

Not sure where to put this..

He just said he was rooting for Boston, so this probably means "good series, good baseball" or something. Who cares? The one thing I won't miss from 2008 was the Manny petty-drama.

[Archer1979]

And there, on the podium near the mound, stood the 29-year old, handsome Tampa Bay General Manager with his equally young (in relation) owner, and effusive President, all drenched in champagne, pennant-winning t-shirts donned over their oxford shirts.

A few familiar themes there?

There's another team in town, folks. This team is going to be here for a looooooonnnnggg time.

And I've been saying it all over the forum, but their braintrust is getting zero coverage.

The difference is that they probably won't sustain it long-term once these players start to get arb-eligible. But they were the better team both during the regular season and the post-season and should have no problem with Philly.

In my mind the Sox were the third best team in the post-season after TB and LAA, but that's why the games need to be played so that these things can get sorted out. They managed to steal t against LAA. A few things that come to mind:

Lowell's injury really hurt this club. A healthy Lowell's bat vs. Kotsay's bat could have been the difference.

Beckett's oblique strain, obviously was a factor in Game 2. His Game 6 performance and the work that the bullpen had to do to finish the game could have been a factor in Game 7 had the Sox gained the lead late.

Bay needs to work on hitting the breaking stuff.

The Sox pitching seemed to handle the Rays batters better once they started to re-establish the inside part of the plate. Put simply, a couple of pitches up and in worked wonders. The only problem is if you do that with Upton, you can't miss or it's getting launched.

Personally, as bummed as I was last night, it's definitely a different mindset for me in that I'm not lamenting the loss due to the "I'll never see them win a World Series in my lifetime" factor, but rather I feel like this just someone else's turn. In other words, I don't feel like my teeth have been kicked in and I'm watching the guy that did it walk away with my lunch money. Looking at it another way, when the Sox were down 7 - zip with seven outs to go, what would you have done if someone had offered you the chance to trade that situation for a game that was a virtual coin-flip to decide the series?

I'm bummed, but I've felt a lot worse.

[Soxfan in Fla]

Tampa is in good shape for the near future and even distant future.

Longoria is signed for 6 years plus options at what will seem like an absurdly cheap rate within 2 years.
Crawford has 2 more years under contract.
Shields and Kazmir both signed long term deals at good rates.
Pena has 2 more seasons on his current contract at $8 mill per which is pretty good considering what he has done the last 2 years with the bat and glove.
They have been working on Upton for awhile now and that should be an interesting one. They still have another 2 or possibly 3 years of him before FA.
They have 4 more years of Garza before FA but I suspect they will try to lock him up to a similar type of deal they did with Shields and Garza.
Price obviously has 6 more years until FA and I'm sure it won't be too long before they do a deal with him like they have done with the others.
Sonnanstine still has 4 years until FA and will probably be another target for a cost controlled deal.

They also have Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Jake McGee (coming off injury), Mitch Talbot and at least a couple other pitchers who all will be ML ready within the next 2 years so they are EXTREMELY loaded in the pitching department.

They have Perez as a young OF that is terrific with the glove and rivals Crawford and Upton for speed. His bat looked better in September than most in this area thought it would. He could easily be a 4th OF or maybe the starting RF for this squad next year and of course then he would have 6 years on the clock. They have a very good young SS that they just drafted and a couple other good position players in their ml system.

This team and organization is just LOADED with young home grown talent. They also are doing a brilliant job of following the Cleveland Indiants model of the 90's by signing their good young players to deals that keep arbitration cost controlled and in some cases buy a year or two of FA out. The difference between the Rays of now and the Indians of the 90's is that the Rays have tremendous young pitching.

We can also say what we will about Maddon and some of his managerial tendencies but he's an excellent motivator of these young players and does a great job of handling them. To me is is similar to Tito, has a lot of baffling moments in game management but is brilliant in how he handles his team.

This team will be a force to be reckoned with for the next few years. This won't be their only time in the playoffs over the next 5 years.

Oh BTW, I do hope they win the WS. They are a great young team that is fun to watch. Yes the cowbells suck and the bandwagon state of the fans suck but I really don't give a crap. Sans Jonny Gomes they are a fun team to watch and very likable overall (well Bartlett is pretty annoying too). Really cannot stand Philly. If there is any fanbase that deserves to continue in its misery its Philly Phan. Go Rays, beat the Phils. Besides, a Rays title will REALLY crimp the Steinbrenner's style down here in Tampa. It will probably kill George and will literally drive Hanky Panky up the wall. I'm all for that.

[Soxfan in Fla]

The difference is that they probably won't sustain it long-term once these players start to get arb-eligible. But they were the better team both during the regular season and the post-season and should have no problem with Philly.

In my mind the Sox were the third best team in the post-season after TB and LAA, but that's why the games need to be played so that these things can get sorted out. They managed to steal t against LAA. A few things that come to mind:

Lowell's injury really hurt this club. A healthy Lowell's bat vs. Kotsay's bat could have been the difference.

Beckett's oblique strain, obviously was a factor in Game 2. His Game 6 performance and the work that the bullpen had to do to finish the game could have been a factor in Game 7 had the Sox gained the lead late.

Bay needs to work on hitting the breaking stuff.

The Sox pitching seemed to handle the Rays batters better once they started to re-establish the inside part of the plate. Put simply, a couple of pitches up and in worked wonders. The only problem is if you do that with Upton, you can't miss or it's getting launched.

Personally, as bummed as I was last night, it's definitely a different mindset for me in that I'm not lamenting the loss due to the "I'll never see them win a World Series in my lifetime" factor, but rather I feel like this just someone else's turn. In other words, I don't feel like my teeth have been kicked in and I'm watching the guy that did it walk away with my lunch money. Looking at it another way, when the Sox were down 7 - zip with seven outs to go, what would you have done if someone had offered you the chance to trade that situation for a game that was a virtual coin-flip to decide the series?

I'm bummed, but I've felt a lot worse.

I'd be more upset if I knew we were the better team in this series. Fact of the matter is these teams were pretty even but overall the better team was definitely the Rays. They had the better hitting and better starting pitching in this series. The Sox played better D and overall had the better pen. Overall the Rays were the better team and I'm OK with losing to the better team (as long as it isn't the MFY).

[sibpin]

2008 ALCS World Championship Probability Added info (ALDS here)

The image below is the table of probability of winning the World Series, with Game Weights (the change in probability by that game) described to the right:


[table=2008 Matchup-Independent Game Weights][tr][td=*]Game[/td][td=*]Weight[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALDS1[/td][td=*]0.0469[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALDS2[/td][td=*]0.0469[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALDS3[/td][td=*]0.0313[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALDS4[/td][td=*]0.0625
[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS1[/td][td=*]0.0781[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS2[/td][td=*]0.0781[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS3[/td][td=*]0.0938[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS4[/td][td=*]0.0938
[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS5[/td][td=*]0.0625[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS6[/td][td=*]0.1250[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS7[/td][td=*]0.2500
[/td][/tr][/table]

Terminology explainers:

A lot of the Game 5 pre-Crisp heroics don't count for much WCPA here because they improved the probability of the Sox winning that game very little and came in the lowest-weighted game (since the Sox had only a 6.25% chance of winning the World Series going into it). For example, David Ortiz had a WCPA of -0.2% in Game 5. His home run improved the Sox' chances of winning Game 5 by 6.8% and the Sox' chances of winning the World Series by 0.4%.

Win Probabilty Added data collected from Fangraphs. As always, their interpretation of WPA attributes all pitching and fielding events to the pitcher, all batting events to the batter, and SB/CS/WP/PB (but not other base-running) events to the runner. EV has separated out fielding at times, but I have not done that here.

World Championship Probability Added = WPA * Game Weight
Series Winning Probability Added = (WCPA in ALDS x 4) or (WCPA in ALCS x 2) or (WCPA in WS x 1)

Note that while WPA for an individual team in an individual game should add up to 0.5 or -0.5, WCPA over a series for a team does not necessarily add up to a nice clean number, it adds to the sum of (Total Game WPA * Game Weight) for all games.

[table=2008 Red Sox WCPA][tr][td=*]Player[/td][td=*]Postseason WCPA[/td][td=*]Postseason WPA[/td][td=*]ALCS WCPA[/td][td=*]ALCS WPA[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Bay[/td][td=*]8.29%[/td][td=*]84.80%[/td][td=*]6.31%[/td][td=*]56.40%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Papelbon[/td][td=*]5.39%[/td][td=*]90.00%[/td][td=*]3.46%[/td][td=*]39.00%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Okajima[/td][td=*]4.78%[/td][td=*]54.70%[/td][td=*]4.54%[/td][td=*]46.40%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Pedroia[/td][td=*]2.44%[/td][td=*]-2.60%[/td][td=*]4.19%[/td][td=*]44.60%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Delcarmen[/td][td=*]2.41%[/td][td=*]43.30%[/td][td=*]0.16%[/td][td=*]2.60%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Masterson[/td][td=*]1.90%[/td][td=*]25.70%[/td][td=*]4.01%[/td][td=*]49.00%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Lester[/td][td=*]1.13%[/td][td=*]49.20%[/td][td=*]-3.14%[/td][td=*]-27.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Matsuzaka[/td][td=*]0.66%[/td][td=*]4.10%[/td][td=*]0.56%[/td][td=*]1.90%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Drew[/td][td=*]0.63%[/td][td=*]51.80%[/td][td=*]-0.18%[/td][td=*]33.70%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Crisp[/td][td=*]0.59%[/td][td=*]10.00%[/td][td=*]0.43%[/td][td=*]4.80%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Cash[/td][td=*]0.45%[/td][td=*]4.80%[/td][td=*]0.45%[/td][td=*]4.80%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Cora[/td][td=*]0.42%[/td][td=*]-4.70%[/td][td=*]0.48%[/td][td=*]0.10%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Byrd[/td][td=*]-0.21%[/td][td=*]-2.20%[/td][td=*]-0.21%[/td][td=*]-2.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Casey[/td][td=*]-0.31%[/td][td=*]-4.90%[/td][td=*]-0.31%[/td][td=*]-4.90%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Lowell[/td][td=*]-0.72%[/td][td=*]-18.40%[/td][td=*]DNP[/td][td=*]DNP[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Youkilis[/td][td=*]-1.24%[/td][td=*]-7.00%[/td][td=*]-0.74%[/td][td=*]1.10%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Lopez[/td][td=*]-1.39%[/td][td=*]-34.50%[/td][td=*]-0.51%[/td][td=*]-6.40%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ortiz[/td][td=*]-2.05%[/td][td=*]-1.30%[/td][td=*]-2.14%[/td][td=*]-8.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Lowrie[/td][td=*]-2.10%[/td][td=*]-18.70%[/td][td=*]-3.68%[/td][td=*]-35.60%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ellsbury[/td][td=*]-2.48%[/td][td=*]-13.20%[/td][td=*]-3.63%[/td][td=*]-44.70%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Wakefield[/td][td=*]-2.71%[/td][td=*]-28.90%[/td][td=*]-2.71%[/td][td=*]-28.90%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Timlin[/td][td=*]-2.84%[/td][td=*]-36.30%[/td][td=*]-2.84%[/td][td=*]-36.30%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Beckett[/td][td=*]-5.67%[/td][td=*]-83.50%[/td][td=*]-5.19%[/td][td=*]-68.20%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Varitek[/td][td=*]-6.53%[/td][td=*]-58.30%[/td][td=*]-5.89%[/td][td=*]-40.00%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Kotsay[/td][td=*]-7.08%[/td][td=*]-53.90%[/td][td=*]-5.89%[/td][td=*]-31.50%[/td][/tr][/table]

[table=2003-2008 Red Sox WCPA in ALCS Leaders and Trailers][tr][td=*]Player[/td][td=*]WCPA in ALCS[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ortiz, 2004[/td][td=*]7.11%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Papelbon, 2007[/td][td=*]6.73%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Bay, 2008[/td][td=*]6.31%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Okajima, 2008[/td][td=*]4.54%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ramirez, 2007[/td][td=*]4.48%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Pedroia, 2008[/td][td=*]4.19%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Masterson, 2008[/td][td=*]4.01%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Beckett, 2007[/td][td=*]3.58%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Papelbon, 2008[/td][td=*]3.46%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Okajima, 2007[/td][td=*]3.48%[/td][/tr][tr] [td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td] [/tr][tr][td=*]Crisp, 2007[/td][td=*]-3.78%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ramirez, 2003[/td][td=*]-3.91%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Millar, 2003[/td][td=*]-4.18%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Garciaparra, 2003[/td][td=*]-4.36%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Mueller, 2003[/td][td=*]-5.00%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Burkett, 2003[/td][td=*]-5.01%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Beckett, 2008[/td][td=*]-5.19%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Varitek, 2008[/td][td=*]-5.89%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Kotsay, 2008[/td][td=*]-5.89%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Martinez, 2003[/td][td=*]-8.47%[/td][/tr][/table]

[table=2003-2008 Red Sox SWPA Leaders and Trailers][tr][td=*]Player[/td][td=*]SWPA[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Lowe, 2003 ALDS[/td][td=*]25.14%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Timlin, 2003 ALCS[/td][td=*]20.11%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Lester, 2008 ALDS[/td][td=*]17.09%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ortiz, 2004 ALCS[/td][td=*]14.23%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Papelbon, 2007 ALCS[/td][td=*]13.46%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Bay, 2008 ALCS[/td][td=*]12.62%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ortiz, 2004 ALDS[/td][td=*]11.49%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Timlin, 2003 ALDS[/td][td=*]11.46%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ramirez, 2003 ALDS[/td][td=*]10.58%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Varitek, 2003 ALDS[/td][td=*]10.36%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Crisp, 2007 ALCS[/td][td=*]-7.57%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Clement, 2005 ALDS[/td][td=*]-7.65%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ramirez, 2003 ALCS[/td][td=*]-7.82%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Millar, 2003 ALCS[/td][td=*]-8.36%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Masterson, 2008 ALDS[/td][td=*]-8.43%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Garciaparra, 2003 ALCS[/td][td=*]-8.72%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Mueller, 2003 ALDS[/td][td=*]-9.77%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Mueller, 2003 ALCS[/td][td=*]-10.00%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Burkett, 2003 ALCS[/td][td=*]-10.03%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Martinez, 2003 ALCS[/td][td=*]-16.94%[/td][/tr][/table]

[table=2003-2008 Red Sox Postseason WCPA Leaders and Trailers][tr][td=*]Player[/td][td=*]Postseason WCPA[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Papelbon, 2007[/td][td=*]13.37%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ortiz, 2004[/td][td=*]13.11%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Timlin, 2003[/td][td=*]12.92%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Bay, 2008[/td][td=*]8.29%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Okajima, 2007[/td][td=*]7.82%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Beckett, 2007[/td][td=*]7.78%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Schilling, 2004[/td][td=*]6.26%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ramirez, 2007[/td][td=*]6.10%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Ellsbury, 2007[/td][td=*]5.71%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Lowe, 2003[/td][td=*]5.50%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Lopez, 2007[/td][td=*]-4.00%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Lugo, 2007[/td][td=*]-4.34%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Garciaparra, 2003[/td][td=*]-5.19%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Beckett, 2008[/td][td=*]-5.67%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Burkett, 2003[/td][td=*]-5.92%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Millar, 2003[/td][td=*]-6.05%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Varitek, 2008[/td][td=*]-6.53%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Kotsay, 2008[/td][td=*]-7.08%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Mueller, 2003[/td][td=*]-7.44%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Martinez, 2003[/td][td=*]-9.55%[/td][/tr][/table]

[table=2008 ALCS Red Sox Top Plays by WCPA][tr][td=*]Game[/td][td=*]Play[/td][td=*]WCPA[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS7, Top 8[/td][td=*]Crisp singles off Wheeler, moving Cora to 2nd.[/td][td=*]2.68%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS7, Top 1[/td][td=*]Pedroia homers off Garza.[/td][td=*]2.53%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS5, Bot 9[/td][td=*]Drew walk-off ground-rule singles off Howell, scoring Youkilis.[/td][td=*]2.39%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS6, Top 6[/td][td=*]Varitek homers off Shields.[/td][td=*]2.24%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS7, Top 9[/td][td=*]Price walks Bay.[/td][td=*]1.88%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS7, Top 7[/td][td=*]Bay singles off Garza, moving Drew to 2nd.[/td][td=*]1.73%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS7, Top 8[/td][td=*]Cora reaches on Bartlett error. Garza pitching.[/td][td=*]1.68%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS2, Bot 8[/td][td=*]Pedroia scores on wild pitch by Wheeler.[/td][td=*]1.53%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS6, Top 6[/td][td=*]Ortiz singles off Howell, scoring Crisp and moving Pedroia to 2nd.[/td][td=*]1.44%[/td][/tr][tr][td=*]ALCS2, Bot 1[/td][td=*]Bay doubles off Kazmir, scoring Ortiz and Youkilis.[/td][td=*]1.44%[/td][/tr][/table]

This post has been edited by sibpin: Oct 20 2008, 11:14 PM

[ookami7m]

Kotsay's LOB absolutely murder his numbers. This is where any other power bat off the bench (or a healthy Lowell) would have been huge. Kotsay left a small village on the bases during the ALCS including at least 2 bases loaded situations where no runs were scored.

[smastroyin]

That last entry on the WCPA trailers should read "Little," not "Martinez"

[Hairps]

2008 ALCS World Championship Probability Added info....

Awesome post, sibpin. Thanks.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

In a similar vein, I stitched together the game-by-game fangraphs win expectancy data, and converted it to an ALCS Win Expectancy chart. I used the same approximation that's inherent in sibpin's table above (namely that the outcome of a game at its outset is a 50/50 proposition, which allows me to calculate the ALCS win expectancy at the beginning and end of each game).

The overall ALCS chart looks like this:







What this view fails to illustrate is the drama that was innings 7-9 in game 5. To see that better, I converted the vertical axis to a log scale (ALCS Win Expectancy bottomed out at 0.175% after Upton's double off Paps in the 7th ... well, until the third out of the ninth in game 7, that is ).





In fact, when Lowrie came to the plate with 2 out in the ninth of game 7, their chances of winning the series were 20x higher (2000% higher) than they were after Upton's double in game 5.

[saintnick912]

SoSH's own Frisbetarian has an article up on The Hardball Times with a good series recap.

This is no fluke. The Rays deserve to represent the American League in the World Series. They finished first in the toughest division on baseball, the American League East, largely because they won the season series against the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox. They then beat the Red Sox in the playoffs, and there is no doubt the better team won.

Well done Fris.