The Dustin Pedroia Show Options

[sachmoney]

Pedroia is working his way to actually getting MVP votes. The guy has been playing out of his mind lately. Pedroia is doing everything, fielding, base running, and has been a monster at the plate. Dustin is a major reason we are still in the wild card lead even though we are having an epic injury epidemic that may be worse than 2006.

I think media coverage might garner some votes for Pedroia. I mean the guy has great numbers, but I don't know about MVP numbers. However, with newspapers like the Globe saying Pedroia was responsible for the win and TV shows like Sportscenter also giving him credit, that is huge. It puts the spotlight on Pedroia, and if he continues to do well, the media spin will continue in his favor. The BWAA, they don't have the time to watch every single game. They're covering their local team, they're not going to have time to watch the Sox. They're going to see highlights and things like that. When highlights are edited to show Pedroia doing well, he's going to look like an MVP.

Honestly, can anyone say that he put an MVP performance or he carried the team yesterday? It was total team effort with 'tek and Bailey contributing homers and Lowrie knocking in two and being on base all night. Crisp had the go ahead hit. Pedroia knocked in the eventual winning runs, but isn't giving Pedroia all the credit (at least offensively, Byrd got a lot of credit too) not exactly correct? I mean, do we who watched the game, think Pedroia is responsible for the win (enough to steal the headlines)?

The difference between the actual game and what happens and what the media spins it to be may have a profound effect on the MVP voting. Probably less than in the past, when metrics and all sorts of videos weren't readily available, but I think that the media still can have some sort of influence on the voters.

[Tudor Fever]

Pedroia's having an excellent year, but this MVP talk is a considerable stretch, to the point that it seems like blatant homerism. Here are the current win share leaders in the AL, according to Bill James's website (subscription required):

Kinsler 26
Morneau 26
Sizemore 25
Mauer 24
Hamilton 23
Youkilis 23
Quentin 23
Cliff Lee 22
Upton 21
Markakis 21
Pedroia 21

(Nice to see A-Rod well out of the top 10 with 18 WS.)

[TomRicardo]

I think media coverage might garner some votes for Pedroia. I mean the guy has great numbers, but I don't know about MVP numbers. However, with newspapers like the Globe saying Pedroia was responsible for the win and TV shows like Sportscenter also giving him credit, that is huge. It puts the spotlight on Pedroia, and if he continues to do well, the media spin will continue in his favor. The BWAA, they don't have the time to watch every single game. They're covering their local team, they're not going to have time to watch the Sox. They're going to see highlights and things like that. When highlights are edited to show Pedroia doing well, he's going to look like an MVP.

David Eckstein has twice got MVP votes, both times having an OPS under .750. Pedroia is better on the field, with the bat and is better base runner. Plus because of size and whiteness, he actually has 2.3 pt advance on scrappiness. The guy is quote factory. Fact is baseball writers splooge all over themselves for players like Pedroia. He is like Eckstein only if Eckstein was good or had a personalty. I am not saying Pedroia will win but I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the top five in voting.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Pedroia's having an excellent year, but this MVP talk is a considerable stretch, to the point that it seems like blatant homerism. Here are the current win share leaders in the AL, according to Bill James's website (subscription required):

Kinsler 26
Morneau 26
Sizemore 25
Mauer 24
Hamilton 23
Youkilis 23
Quentin 23
Cliff Lee 22
Upton 21
Markakis 21
Pedroia 21

Which means that Pedroia is an MVP candidate. As Bill James himself has said, differences of 3 to 6 Win Shares (1 to 2 wins) are essentially meanlingless in discussions like this.

As usual, there will be be several worthy candidates, with Pedroia and Youkilis probably being two. The next few months will witness dozens of articles and blog posts from "analysts" attempting to "prove" that they know who the MVP is. Please don't be fooled. The job of the writers is to use a little analysis to narrow the list down to a handful, and then break the tie with their own sense of who helped his team win games. On rare occasions there is a "correct" pick, a player who very obviously is the best player. This is not that year. Pedroia is as good a candidate as anyone.


This post has been edited by LahoudOrBillyC: Sep 2 2008, 12:30 PM

[Bellhorn]

Pedroia's having an excellent year, but this MVP talk is a considerable stretch, to the point that it seems like blatant homerism. Here are the current win share leaders in the AL, according to Bill James's website (subscription required):

Sure, but win shares are hardly the final word in the matter. Even if we grant that context-based measurements are the correct standard for determining MVP, there's a good case to be made for the use of WPA instead, as win shares only take baserunner context, not game context, into account. (i.e. a player is rewarded if he hits well with runners in scoring position, but not if he hits well in close/late situations. This is why win shares favors Kinsler over Pedroia by such a large margin.) It would seem more consistent, if one wishes to go down this road, to assume that all elements of context are relevant in assessing a player's performance.

As it happens, I disagree with the automatic inclusion of context to begin with. Without wanting to reignite the debate from a few weeks ago, I will say that my preferred baseline measurement of MVP worthiness would be something like VORP + EqBR + fielding +/-, e.g. from the THT stats. I'm not sure exactly where Pedroia would rank by this metric, but I would be willing to bet that it would be much higher than on the win shares leaderboard.

[BU1995Hockey]

In April I was talking about the Sox with Paradigm's Met-fan friend. I mentioned Pedroia is in for a 'young Jeter' year and asked: if Dustin puts up those kinds of numbers and the defense to go with it will he get MVP consideration?

Pedroia age 24: .327/.374/.488 15 HR, 70 RBI OPS+122*
Jeter age 24: .324/.384/.481 19 HR, 84 RBI OPS+127

*through 134 games

DJ came in 3rd for the MVP that year.

[Tudor Fever]

Which means that Pedroia is an MVP candidate. As Bill James himself has said, differences of 3 to 6 Win Shares (1 to 2 wins) are essentially meanlingless in discussions like this.

As usual, there will be be several worthy candidates, with Pedroia and Youkilis probably being two. The next few months will witness dozens of articles and blog posts from "analysts" attempting to "prove" that they know who the MVP is. Please don't be fooled. The job of the writers is to use a little analysis to narrow the list down to a handful, and then break the tie with their own sense of who helped his team win games. On rare occasions there is a "correct" pick, a player who very obviously is the best player. This is not that year. Pedroia is as good a candidate as anyone.

Sure, there is some inexactitude in win shares, although I'd be surprised if James ever said that 3 to 6 win shares are "essentially meaningless" (this seems like a substantial exaggeration.) To argue that Pedroia is the MVP, one would have to take the position that WS are so inexact that the player with the 9th or 11th highest WS total can vault ahead of every player above him on the list. Either that, or that heart and gritty gamerdom trump all else.

As it happens, I disagree with the automatic inclusion of context to begin with. Without wanting to reignite the debate from a few weeks ago, I will say that my preferred baseline measurement of MVP worthiness would be something like VORP + EqBR + fielding +/-, e.g. from the THT stats. I'm not sure exactly where Pedroia would rank by this metric, but I would be willing to bet that it would be much higher than on the win shares leaderboard.

How would you weight them, and what makes you think that Pedroia would rank higher?

[Redkluzu]

Re: Dustin for MVP. From the little-known Lynn Item, "batting average, number one at .326 entering last night's game...; hits (first, 183); multihit games (first, 53); runs scored (first, 106); doubles (third, 42); total bases (fifth, 274); hardest to strike out (third-best, every 13.1 plate appearances)."

Also noted are Byrd's comments about Pedroia after last night's game:

"Seeing him day in and day out, how much he means to this team, I knew he was a good player and I didn't like facing him because he was pesky and hit the ball in when I pitched him away. When I pitched him away, he hit the ball there, too," said Byrd.... "But I didn't realize how good he was defensively. As he goes, we go. He says all the right things in the dugout. He's always excited. He's always fired-up. He always plays super hard no matter what the score is. Since I've been here, he can hit home runs, he can hit base hits the other way with bases loaded. It's one of those things where he does a lot of things very, very well.

Including a diving stop to snare a Brian Roberts shot, ending the seventh inning, maybe less visible in the box score, a simple 4-3 groundout. But noticeable to the man who was on the mound.

"That's a great play," Byrd said. "Nobody's going to notice that play, but I needed something like that at that point and it was a huge play. I love defense and I notice defense because I don't strike guys out and I don't walk many people, so I pay attention to who is moving on the infield and outfield. I feel like I've got two guys playing second base. And that doesn't mean that our other guys can't play. We have a great defense every night, which is huge for me. But I really want to single him out because he got the big hit and got the big play. Not everybody notices that. I noticed that play. I noticed that dive."

[sachmoney]

David Eckstein has twice got MVP votes, both times having an OPS under .750. Pedroia is better on the field, with the bat and is better base runner. Plus because of size and whiteness, he actually has 2.3 pt advance on scrappiness. The guy is quote factory. Fact is baseball writers splooge all over themselves for players like Pedroia. He is like Eckstein only if Eckstein was good or had a personalty. I am not saying Pedroia will win but I wouldn't be shocked if he was in the top five in voting.

TRic-I was talking more in the sense that I don't know if he has the numbers to win the award. I know he definitely will get votes, and I would not be surprised if he finished in the top 5 either.

In terms of the scrappiness comment, I think Pedroia is proving every single game that he's not a scrappy guy, but truly a great player with tremendous hand-eye coordination. While people see him as a white, vertically challenged, stumpy person, he keeps proving day in and day out that he is truly a baseball player.

In terms of quotes, he certainly has his gems, but what differentiates him from others is that he always seems to say the right things. When he was asked about the MVP chant a few days ago, he said "I don't like to thing about it (being the MVP), I just care about winning." That's the type of stuff that we as fans eat up and I think that's the attitude that writers love.

If he continues to go like this, he'll probably exceed all those numbers. He's already exceeded Jeter's doubles, and he might come close Jeter's 30 steals that season (if he keeps stealing like he's been doing these past couple games, what is it 3 in two nights or something?)

[TomRicardo]

TRic-I was talking more in the sense that I don't know if he has the numbers to win the award. I know he definitely will get votes, and I would not be surprised if he finished in the top 5 either.

In terms of the scrappiness comment, I think Pedroia is proving every single game that he's not a scrappy guy, but truly a great player with tremendous hand-eye coordination. While people see him as a white, vertically challenged, stumpy person, he keeps proving day in and day out that he is truly a baseball player.

In terms of quotes, he certainly has his gems, but what differentiates him from others is that he always seems to say the right things. When he was asked about the MVP chant a few days ago, he said "I don't like to thing about it (being the MVP), I just care about winning." That's the type of stuff that we as fans eat up and I think that's the attitude that writers love.

You are absolutely right about the scrappiness. Dustin Pedroia is a freak of nature. He has Spiderman like reflexes. All the effort in the world won't let someone do the shit he is able to to do. The man should have been a fighter jet pilot. That said, sportswriters are old and lazy. They are a lot like the posters on the board who wax poetic about the glory days of baseball. They are overpaid in a dying industry (newpapers) and have a ego the size of a large asteroid. They love terms like gritty and scrappy that take them back to a day where sportswriters were relevant.

I think the main thing to consider about the MVP is that these sportwriters vote. They are not going to look at Win Shares, VORP, or any of those sabermetric stats. I bet more than half won't even look at a players OPS. The voters are guys like George King who kept Pedro off his ballot out of spite for the Red Sox (unless you believe the lie that in a year King decided that he could no longer vote for pitchers for MVP). Dustin Pedroia is a player sports writers dream about. The guy talks constantly, is a fairly good story, and is interesting to readers who think "Damn, if that balding midget can play pro ball so can I if I really really really try hard [well if I force my children to]" not understanding the fact that Dustin Pedroia was bit by a radioactive bald midget spider.

[Zupcic Fan]

"Sports writers are old and lazy"
One of the great mysteries to me following baseball is that while so many people agree with this sentiment and are so highly critical of all the announcers and sportswriters, etc. (and I'm not saying they shouldn't be) many of these same people still get so upset when they feel that some injustice has been done when the awards are then chosen by these people they have no respect for in the first place. As a fan who has never cared very much one way or the other about any of these awards, I've never understood that. I guess it wouild be nice if some player I like wins the MVP, but how seriously can I take it when the same people give the gold glove to people like Jeter who you guys have convinced me shouldn't even be in the top 10.

I also don't see the analogy between the sportswriters and "the posters on this board who wax poetic about the glory days of baseball" but I suppose that wasn't really a point being made but rather some kind of childish dig that grew out of some other thread.

This post has been edited by Zupcic Fan: Sep 2 2008, 03:47 PM

[Eric Van]

Sure, there is some inexactitude in win shares, although I'd be surprised if James ever said that 3 to 6 win shares are "essentially meaningless" (this seems like a substantial exaggeration.) To argue that Pedroia is the MVP, one would have to take the position that WS are so inexact that the player with the 9th or 11th highest WS total can vault ahead of every player above him on the list.

Well, Pedroia is 2nd in position-adjusted Win Probability Added, a much more sensitive / accurate measure of actual offensive value than the offensive component of Win Shares, so, yeah, Win Shares can be really approximate. They're a terrific tool for estimating historic value. For any year for which we have complete PBP and hence WPA, and various advanced fielding metrics like Plus / Minus and PMR (considerably more accurate than the defensive end of WS), there's really no point in looking at Win Shares.

Approximate WPA, position adjusted (PT adjustments are a week out of date, but shouldn't affect the rankings):

1. Mauer, +47
2. Pedroia, +36
3. Sizemore, +35
4. Hamilton, +34
5. Quentin, +32
6. Robertts, +31
7. Ramirez, +31
8. Morneau, +28
9. Kinsler, +26
10. Granderson, +26

This post has been edited by Eric Van: Sep 2 2008, 08:05 PM

[Tudor Fever]

Well, Pedroia is 2nd in position-adjusted Win Probability Added, a much more sensitive / accurate measure of actual offensive value than the offensive component of Win Shares...

That's only if you define "actual offensive value" as context-specific, as opposed to looking at raw production. If you do, then you end up with bizarre conclusions such as that Brian Roberts is having a better season than Ian Kinsler is.

By the way, what is your source for your position adjusted WPA stats? According to fangraphs, Pedroia ranks ninth in the AL in non-position-adjusted WPA.

[mabrowndog]

Over his current 7-game hitting streak, Pedroia's 18-for-30 with 4 walks, 3 doubles, 2 HR, 10 runs and 11 RBI. And only two strikeouts with that long swing of his.

That's a .600/.629/.900/1.529 line.

This post has been edited by mabrowndog: Sep 2 2008, 09:46 PM

[Eric Van]

That's only if you define "actual offensive value" as context-specific, as opposed to looking at raw production. If you do, then you end up with bizarre conclusions such as that Brian Roberts is having a better season than Ian Kinsler is.

No, you don't, you reach the conclusion that Brian Roberts has been more valuable (offensively) to the Orioles than Kinsler has been to the Rangers, which is demonstrably true and not at all the same thing as "having a better season." The award is for the Most Valuable Player, so of course you have to look at context and hence WPA. "Player of the year," which you can argue is about putting up the best stat line rather than doing the most to help your team win, is a different and easier question to answer.

Roberts' high-medium-low leverage splits: 1135, 779, 805; Kinsler's: 952, 820, 970.

By the way, what is your source for your position adjusted WPA stats? According to fangraphs, Pedroia ranks ninth in the AL in non-position-adjusted WPA.

My own spreadsheet. I try to update the figures here periodically.

[KenTremendous]

One of the great mysteries to me following baseball is that while so many people agree with this sentiment and are so highly critical of all the announcers and sportswriters, etc. (and I'm not saying they shouldn't be) many of these same people still get so upset when they feel that some injustice has been done when the awards are then chosen by these people they have no respect for in the first place.

I agree completely, and yet I am one of these people. The insanity of the MVP is rivaled only by the inanity of the Gold Glove (cf. Raffy Palmeiro's DH year). The Hank Aaron Award, which is not position-weighted, went to Derek Jeter one year. None of them get it right, and yet I am outraged anew each and every time the results are printed. I guess it's just not in my nature to be calm about things like this. I freaked out when Forrest Gump beat Pulp Fiction, too, even though I know It's meaningless.

Regardless, if Pedroia's September is even 75% of his August, he may just win, for all of the reasons others have here cited. (It seems unlikely that he will, because his anecdotally-noted BABIP for the last six weeks has been about .980.) He's having a great year, and as mentioned above, he is the BBWAA's wettest, dirtiest, most erotic dream.

[TomRicardo]

Regardless, if Pedroia's September is even 75% of his August, he may just win, for all of the reasons others have here cited. (It seems unlikely that he will, because his anecdotally-noted BABIP for the last six weeks has been about .980.) He's having a great year, and as mentioned above, he is the BBWAA's wettest, dirtiest, most erotic dream.

Unless the sportswriters find out about the radioactive bald midget spider. I am fairly certain that spider bites count as PEMs (performance enhancing mutations). Though the Player's Union has successively kept testing for PEMs out, I think they would still be considered a no no by the BBWAA. You know for the sanctity of the game.

[PedroSpecialK]

I think we should petition Baseball Prospectus for a VORP/BBRBMS stat. You know, VORP per bite by radioactive bald midget spider.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

To argue that Pedroia is the MVP, one would have to take the position that WS are so inexact that the player with the 9th or 11th highest WS total can vault ahead of every player above him on the list. Either that, or that heart and gritty gamerdom trump all else.

I am suggesting that Pedroia's WS value of 21 could more accurately be listed as "21 plus or minus 4" or something. I reject the notion that anyone, Bill James or BP or anyone, can split the difference with any more accuracy than that.

You will notice that what James uses Win Shares for, 95% of the time, is with "groups" of players. Determining that value of left handed hitting catchers or Dodger outfielders or something, where you are adding together dozens of seasons to draw some overall conclusion.

[TomRicardo]

I think we should petition Baseball Prospectus for a VORP/BBRBMS stat. You know, VORP per bite by radioactive bald midget spider.

Actually the stat is BBRBMS/VORP. Career Leader is surprisingly enough Dante Bichette. Apparently after being bit by enough radioactive bald spiders you can actually turn green and start beating your pregnant girlfriend.

This post has been edited by TomRicardo: Sep 2 2008, 11:28 PM