Sox interested in Matt Holliday? Options

[Corsi Combover]

With Bonds not in the Sox' plans, who might be a good fit in Boston? Gammons sees possibilities in a deal with the Colorado Rockies to bring Matt Holliday to Boston. "But it would have to be the right fit," Gammons said, noting the Sox would wait as long as possible until they know more about the health of David Ortiz.

Source: http://www.necn.com/Boston/Sports/Peter-Ga...1215644202.html

[RedOctober3829]

Home: in 327 games
.364/.427 (Holy Crap)/.659 OPS+ of 128 78 HR 285 RBI

Away: in 306 games
.278/.341/.452 OPS+ of 70 39 HR 161 RBI

He also has an insane BABIP of .390 at home vs. .320 on the road. There is no doubt he is a good player, but he is astronomical in Coors and that would put a red flag up for me. I just think the numbers point out that Holliday suffers away from Coors Field. He also has struck out 36 more times on the road vs. home in 49 less at-bats.

B-Ref

This post has been edited by RedOctober3829: Jul 9 2008, 07:18 PM

[mabrowndog]

He'd be owed the prorated portion of his $9.5M salary this year, and the Sox would be on the hook for $13.5M next year before he becomes a free agent.

Certainly affordable by the Sox' standards, but that's still a lot of dough to shell out for a guy whose career line away from Coors is 278/341/452/793 over 306 games and 1306 PA.

No thanks.

This post has been edited by mabrowndog: Jul 9 2008, 07:27 PM

[Corsi Combover]

Certainly affordable by the Sox' standards, but that's still a lot of dough to shell out for a guy whose career line away from Coors is 278/341/452/793 over 306 games and 1306 PA.

No thanks.

That number is really brought down by some horrible away numbers in his first two seasons though. Here is his year-by-year road OPS:

2004: .654
2005: .729
2006: .819
2007: .860
2008: .893

I mean, it's a trend, for sure, but I don't know how much stuck you can put into this type of thing. Is he learning to hit on the road?

[templeUsox]

The correct adjustment to his line is not to simply look at his road OPS, it's to make a park adjustment to his overall line (or so I've been told). And remember, if you take out all his home games, more than 1/3 of the remaining games are played at PETCO, Dodger Stadium, and Pac Bell.

That doesn't mean I'm in love with Matt Holliday the player, but I do understand the appeal. I think he would be a more than adequate Manny replacement (something which is looking more and more necessary) for after the season. But after next year he's going to free agency and he's going to command north of 100 million dollars. So that's something to be wary of if you're going to trade Bowden, Reddick, Bard, and Tejeda to the Rockies for him (or whatever).

[Tudor Fever]

Home: in 327 games
.364/.427 (Holy Crap)/.659 OPS+ of 128 78 HR 285 RBI

Away: in 306 games
.278/.341/.452 OPS+ of 70 39 HR 161 RBI
B-Ref

That's not OPS+; it's tOPS+, which is the OPS+ of the split relative to the player's overall OPS. The tOPS+ figures of a player's splits always have a weighted average of 100.

The more relevant stat is sOPS+, which is the OPS+ of the split relative to the major league OPS for the split. Holliday in 2008 has an sOPS+ of 181 at home and 149 on the road.

Distilling out the geek: he's gotten a lot better on the road in more recent years.

[sox junky]

According to Gammons (On Felger's show sometime in the past week), Holliday has some kind of ties to John Farrell (through a coach he had in college?). Bottom-line, he really wants to come to Boston in the future...

Personally, I'd rather not trade for him, keep the prospects, and make a run at him when he hits free agency as a Manny replacement (keep Manny for another year- 2009).

I'm not THAT worried about the road splits from some of the data mentioned above. I think a more relevant question is to look at his hitting chart and his power distribution. He may get a nice boost playing half his games at Fenway (not as much as Coors field, but we're not talking about playing half the games at Petco).

[URISoxFan]

Also something to remember is that Fenway is a pretty severe hitter's park anyway, so it's not like taking someone out of Coors and dropping them in Safeco.

[templeUsox]

According to Gammons (On Felger's show sometime in the past week), Holliday has some kind of ties to John Farrell (through a coach he had in college?). Bottom-line, he really wants to come to Boston in the future...

John Farrell was the pitching coach and recruiting coordinator at Oklahoma State, where Holliday was supposed to go, so it makes sense.

[RedOctober3829]

That's not OPS+; it's tOPS+, which is the OPS+ of the split relative to the player's overall OPS. The tOPS+ figures of a player's splits always have a weighted average of 100.

The more relevant stat is sOPS+, which is the OPS+ of the split relative to the major league OPS for the split. Holliday in 2008 has an sOPS+ of 181 at home and 149 on the road.

Distilling out the geek: he's gotten a lot better on the road in more recent years.

My fault on not recognizing that. I'd like him on the Red Sox, but another question is how much do the Rockies want in order to trade him? If it includes a package of, say, 4 Top-10 Prospects then count me out. If we had to give up, for example, Masterson, Bard, and Kalish I might consider it but I'm sure they will want something like Buchholz, Bard, Reddick, and Kalish. Does this sound like something that would have to be given up for Holliday?

This post has been edited by RedOctober3829: Jul 9 2008, 08:37 PM

[mt8thsw9th]

I would figure 3 top tens, and someone young and MLB-ready like Moss. I'm really starting to warm up to the idea of Holiday, for reasons mentioned in this thread, and that it makes even more sense if Ortiz has any setbacks.

Anyone know what the more advanced defensive metrics think of Holliday?

[Rudy Pemberton]

Ortiz really has to be out for the season in order to make a deal here, otherwise there's not room for Manny, Holliday, Drew, and Ortiz. I think the Sox should be interested in him as a Manny replacement, but ideally you sign him as a FA. To acquire him prior is going to cost some serious depth and effect what the team needs to do in future off-seasons.

[Kevin Mortons Gh...]

He also has an insane BABIP of .390 at home vs. .320 on the road. There is no doubt he is a good player, but he is astronomical in Coors and that would put a red flag up for me. I just think the numbers point out that Holliday suffers away from Coors Field. He also has struck out 36 more times on the road vs. home in 49 less at-bats.

Holliday suffers away from Coors Field? Doesn't everybody? Wouldn't you expect just about everybody to have a higher BABIP in Coors than elsewhere? The insane conditions there don't just increase home runs. Or are you suggesting that he somehow has experienced unusual luck in Coors Field?

More broadly speaking, hasn't it been shown that Coors Field not only increases a hitter's home stats but hurts jis road stats - because he is less used to see a curveball break at sea level, etc... Therefore:

Certainly affordable by the Sox' standards, but that's still a lot of dough to shell out for a guy whose career line away from Coors is 278/341/452/793 over 306 games and 1306 PA.

...one might expect that these numbers are less predictive than they appear to be. I know this was something that stats people wrote about a few years ago. Has further research moved opinion one way or the other?

[RingoOSU]

John Farrell was the pitching coach and recruiting coordinator at Oklahoma State, where Holliday was supposed to go, so it makes sense.

Actually, even though Matt didn't go to OSU, his father was Head Coach there during that time, so his dad was Farrell's boss.

[CaptainLaddie]

I for one will stay out of this thread, but I'm not a big Holliday fan.

[Quintanariffic]

I for one will stay out of this thread, but I'm not a big Holliday fan.

I'll do likewise. My feelings are well known, and the numbers speak for themselves..

[Harry Hooper]

That number is really brought down by some horrible away numbers in his first two seasons though. Here is his year-by-year road OPS:

2004: .654
2005: .729
2006: .819
2007: .860
2008: .893

I mean, it's a trend, for sure, but I don't know how much stuck you can put into this type of thing. Is he learning to hit on the road?

When did they start giving the baseballs in Coors special handling?

This post has been edited by Harry Hooper: Jul 9 2008, 11:24 PM

[Corsi Combover]

And remember, if you take out all his home games, more than 1/3 of the remaining games are played at PETCO, Dodger Stadium, and Pac Bell.

Just did a quick and dirty look at his BA and SLG at all stadiums but Coors, PETCO, Dodger, and AT&T.

2007: .316 .524
2008: .353 .565

If someone wants to go through and figure out the OBP for these as well, please do. I'm too tired to figure it out now.

This post has been edited by Corsi Combover: Jul 9 2008, 11:47 PM

[Corsi Combover]

When did they start giving the baseballs in Coors special handling?

2002.

[Harry Hooper]

Thanks, Corsi.

I just did a quick run of his record in AL parks only. Unfortunately that's only 126 ABs in 33 games, so real SSS territory.

I've got him with a AVG/OBP/SLG line of .294/.364/.492 and a BAbip of .347