Day 1 Roundup Options

[templeUsox]

Round 1 (30) - Casey Kelly, SS/RHP (PG #17, BA #19)

Kelly has been one of the hottest prospects in the country this spring and is being talked about as a first-round pick by many teams. The Cincinnati Reds, for whom Kelly’s father Pat works for as a scout, could be one of those teams. The Reds have the seventh pick in the first round. Kelly has been very up-front with teams that he is very interested in playing baseball immediately and forgoing his football plans—if he’s selected as a shortstop. But he’s made it clear that sentiment would not be the case if a team was to draft him with the intention of making him a pitcher. In such case, Kelly has indicated he would fulfill his football commitment to Tennessee. Most teams have Kelly evaluated higher in the infield, but some do still like him better on the mound. Kelly’s Sarasota High team failed to defend its 2007 state 6-A title as it bowed out in the second.

Round 1s (45) - Bryan Price, RP (PG #28, BA #47)

Price has started to fulfill the promise that his raw stuff hinted at in the past. Used in a long relief role at Rice this spring, Price consistently touched 94-95 mph and his mid-80s slider was a strikeout pitch. Many scouts profile Price as a starting pitcher as he has three quality pitches, a growing command of the strike zone and a lean and projectable frame. He was strong late in the season in front of growing crowds of scouting directors and could be picked by the bottom part of the first round. Price was 3-4, 3.38 with two saves and 48 K’s in 42 innings as Rice entered Conference USA play.

Round 2 (77) - Derrick Gibson, MIF, CF (PG N/A, BA #199)

All the gains that Gibson appeared to make towards becoming an elite prospect last summer and fall may have been squandered this spring as he did not perform to the level scouts expected—or even close. He had positioned himself as a possible second-rounder but only his speed, always his best tool, played to an acceptable level this spring. His bat was light as he did not drive balls consistently to the gaps, like he specialized in doing a year ago. He often got tied up by high-velocity fastballs and adopted more of a passive inside-out approach to hitting. His actions in the field were rough and inconstant, and his arm showed little life and below-average velocity. More than anything, he did not play the game with a bounce in his step. But his athleticism, raw tools and excellent speed all hold too much promise for scouts to walk away from.

Round 3 (85) - Stephen Fife, RHP (PG #91, BA #57)

Led by San Diego State sophomore righthander Stephen Strasburg, the early favorite to be the No. 1 selection in the 2009 draft, and Texas Christian righthander Andrew Cashner, who bolted from deep in the pack to become a probable first-rounder this year, the Mountain West Conference was blessed with some of the nation’s premier power arms this year. Fife’s rise to legitimate prospect status was nearly as meteoric as Cashner’s, but he was almost lost in the shadows of two pitchers pumping high-90s heat. Ironically, it was Strasburg’s dominant 1-0, 23-strikeout win over Utah on April 11 that helped to significantly raise Fife’s profile. Not only did he pitch effectively in his head-to-head shootout with Strasburg with a number of scouts on hand, but he continued to get better and better as the spring wore on, and he finished the year with a 7-5, 3.72 record, with 29 walks and 78 strikeouts in 92 innings. While his fastball was mainly in the 88-92 mph range, it frequently jumped up to 94, and even 95. It also produced consistent sink and run, generating a lot of ground-ball outs. His 82-84 mph slider and 76-78 mph curve also showed flashes of being above-average pitches. Moreover, his stuff was consistently around the plate, a by-product of his tall, balanced delivery and easy arm action. Fife has gotten much stronger and matured as a pitcher since he was a physically undeveloped Idaho high school product who attended Everett (Wash.) JC for a year before transferring to Utah, where he went 6-2, 4.43 with 53 strikeouts in 63 innings as a sophomore. He had a solid 2007 summer season in the West Coast Collegiate League, going 3-0, 1.59 with 30 strikeouts in 34 innings, and significantly built off that performance this season. Fife’s fastball was a consistent 89-90 mph last summer, peaking at 91. He tended to overstride a little when delivering it, but even then he showed enough promise that Northwest area scouts thought he might reach 94-95 mph one day if he could just tighten up his delivery. Few thought he would so do, though, in the course of less than a year

Round 3 (108) - Kyle Weiland, RP (PG #49, BA #88)

Weiland had an up-and-down spring for Notre Dame, throwing very well in spurts but also getting hit occasionally, especially late in the year. He went 2-2, 5.04 with seven saves while allowing 33 hits in 30 innings. With his stuff, there isn’t really much excuse for Weiland being hittable, which confuses scouts. He’ll show three plus pitches in any given game, with a fastball that touches 95 mph, a hard-breaking slider and a nice changeup. That three-pitch mix has led to much talk about making Weiland a starter in professional ball, a role he hasn’t filled since he was in high school in New Mexico. Some scouts question Weiland’s ability to make that kind of an adjustment, citing his complicated Kevin Appier-type delivery that will need to be seriously toned down before he’s asked to repeat his delivery for 100-plus pitches per game.

Round 4 (142) - Pete Hissey, CF (PG #150, BA #136)

Virginia signed Hissey in the NCAA early-signing period last fall, content that a player with a 4.0 GPA and solid but unspectacular tools on the baseball field would safely move on to school next fall. But Hissey surged out of the blocks this spring and quickly became the best high school prospect in Pennsylvania. With the exception of raw power, he showed scouts solid to plus tools across the board. A lefthanded hitter, he mainly sprays balls now but has an aggressive approach at the plate with sound hitting instincts and strike-zone discipline. With 6.50-second speed in the 60, he has a speed-oriented approach to the remainder of his game, and his center-field and base-running skills are at an advanced stage. His arm is considered just average. Hissey batted .509 this season, with a .672 on-base average and 26 stolen bases. Though he has little present power, he projects to get bigger and stronger, and he could be a legitimate five-tool player once he adds a power component to his game. His current profile reminds scouts of New York Yankees outfielder Johnny Damon. Hissey’s signability could be a significant matter, even with his new-found prospect status. He has remained firm in his desire to attend school at Virginia. If teams are unable to get a strong indication that he is at least contemplating signing, he could slide to at least the middle rounds, with a chance that a club will take a spited run at him at the Aug. 16 signing deadline.

Round 5 (172) - Ryan Westmoreland, CF (PG #110, BA #113)

Westmoreland solidified his status as one of the nation’s elite high school players, and possibly one of the best 100 prospects overall for this year’s draft, with another strong season—both on the mound and as a position player. He became Rhode Island’s first two-time Gatorade player of the year by hitting .486-4-31 with 17 stolen bases, while going 6-0, 0.35 with only nine walks and 89 strikeouts in 40 innings. Included in his pitching accomplishments were a 19-strikeout perfect game, and a 20-strikeout one-hitter. Even though he was more dominant on the mound this spring, Westmoreland was scouted only as a center fielder. He got extremely high grades for his speed, defense and arm strength, and his athletic ability generally. Bigger and stronger this year, he drove the ball better than he did in the past, but his bat is the one tool that scouts aren’t totally sold on. He needs a lot of repetitions and at-bats, whether in pro ball or at Vanderbilt. He has already been penciled in as the starting center fielder at Vanderbilt a year from now, and could end up in school if teams are not prepared to meet his high price tag. As with any high-profile New England prospect, the Boston Red Sox have a keen interest and could overdraft Westmoreland as early as the sandwich or second round—to both secure his rights and justify the bonus it will take to sign him away from Vanderbilt. Westmoreland has appropriately been described as a cross between Jacoby Ellsbury and David Murphy, outfielders the Red Sox drafted with first-round picks in 2005 and 2003.

Round 6 (202) - Ryan Lavarnway, C (PG N/A, BA #186)

Lavarnway hit 13 home runs this spring to lead Ivy League hitters and caught on an everyday basis before breaking his wrist with two weeks remaining in the season. Though he did much of what he set out to do this season, he may not have done enough for scouts to elevate himself into elite draft status. Lavarnway may even have regressed slightly as a prospect overall. He didn’t catch as well as expected, struggling to block balls while showing a slow release. His hitting instincts and actions at the plate were also not as fluid as what they had been in the past, even though he batted a team-high .398 and had an impressive 29-19 walk-to-strikeout ratio. With his injury, which should keep him sidelined for a couple of weeks beyond the draft, his need to smooth out his rough edges, and his junior class standing at an Ivy League school all contributing factors, Lavarnway may well be drafted much lower than he anticipated and be tracked this summer in the Cape Cod League.

All scouting reports were taken from the brilliant PG Crosschecker website.

This post has been edited by templeUsox: Jun 6 2008, 08:54 AM

[Hairps]

In honor of Herky Herkimer:

http://www.collegesplits.com/

[86spike]

can we get positions added to these guys?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

It's interested that out of the 5 players who could end up as position players from day one (out of 8 picks total), 4 of them appear to be fast and very athletic guys. I like the approach this front office has taken in that regard. Kelly, in particular, reminds me a little of Clay when he was drafted. Not that I expect him to become the top rated pitching prospect in baseball like Clay, but just in that he's a gifted athlete who apparently has more potential on the mound than in the field.

I'm looking forward to seeing if they can sign him and convince him to pitch. Reading the write up templeUsox provided, I had to wonder if perhaps Kelly really doesn't plan to go to college to play football over pitching, but simply thinks he can leverage his way onto the field by bluffing at it. It seems odd that he would be so eager to play shortstop over accepting a football scholarship, but that he'd walk away from baseball if asked to pitch. Certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but something doesn't quite feel right about that position.

Maybe the front office thinks he's bluffing too and that's why they were willing to use their first pick on him and so openly talk about moving him to the mound, despite Kelly's statements.

[bowiac]

It seems odd that he would be so eager to play shortstop over accepting a football scholarship, but that he'd walk away from baseball if asked to pitch. Certainly not out of the realm of possibility, but something doesn't quite feel right about that position.

I wonder if it's the injury risk of being a pitcher. He might be right that his career prospects are a lot brighter as a shortstop than as a pitcher, even if he's equally talented at both right now

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I wonder if it's the injury risk of being a pitcher. He might be right that his career prospects are a lot brighter as a shortstop than as a pitcher, even if he's equally talented at both right now

You could even argue that his career prospects would be better in the field even if he's a bit better as a pitcher. This is a good point, and if this is the case, I think they'll be able to convince him to take the mound eventually.

[Kremlin Watcher]

Maybe Kelly's thinking of the career track angle. Given the dearth of really high-quality shortstops and the development time needed for most pitchers to develop major-league stuff, he could be focusing on getting to the majors as fast as possible. With the contracts that they are giving out now to younger players, he could be trying to work the system.

Then, once he gets signed, he'll work within the minor league system and then see what happens. I don't know the overall odds of reaching the NFL as a QB versus reaching the majors being able to play two positions (knowing that he has to choose one), but I would have thought that the odds seem to favor MLB in this case.

[Hairps]

Casey and his dad figured it would come down to a big market team and that the Red Sox and Yankees were the likely candidates. When the Yankees went for a pitcher with the 28th pick it looked as if the 18-year-old would be going to their hated rival.

"I am a Red Sox now and I don't think anyone could take that away," Kelly said. "I don't think I will go to Tennessee, but there is a chance I could change my mind. It's an honor to be picked in the first round by the Red Sox and I think everything will work out. The whole thing is unbelievable, to see my name get sent over national television on ESPN."

"I am so excited. It almost doesn’t seem real. A lot of great players don’t get picked in the first round and to have the Red Sox do it is unbelievable."

http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20080.../550885999/1108

[philly sox fan]

With all the talk about his position, I hadn't noticed that Kelly was Florida. Although the Sox had been very successful scouting Florida in the 70s (Boggs) and 80s (Greenwell), they pretty much abondoned the state in the last ~20 years. Florida and Texas are neck and neck as the 2nd (or 3rd) most important states (well behind CA, but well ahead of everybody else) so it's been a little odd. But since taking Greg Blosser in the 1st rd in 1989 the only top 5 rd picks used on Fla players was Mike Maroth who was a low ceiling 3rd in 1998. They did give 6 figures bonuses to Kyle Bono (8th in 2004) and Anthony Rizzo (6th in 2007), but Kelly is the Sox first significant investment in a Florida player in a long, long time.

Since I'm interested in signing scouts, let's look at the likely lead scouts for these day 1 pcks.

Kelly – SE FL, Laz Gutierrez
Price – N Texas, Jim Robinson
Gibson – DE, Chris Calciano
Fife – Utah, Matt Mahoney
Weiland – IN, Chris Mears
Hissey – E PA, Chris Calciano
Westmorland – RI, Ray Fagnant
Lavarney – CT, RayFagnant

Big day for the new scouts Calciano, Mahoney and Mears. Gutierrez is relatively young although obviously that pick is vetted by everybody that matters. Robinson an old and successful member of the dept. Fagnant, still banging around the northeast, is the last Gorman era holdover.