4/29-5/1, the effin' Jays at Fenway Options

[behindthepen]

[table=TOR][tr][td=*]2008 TITLE DEFENSE [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][/tr][tr][td=*] [/td][td=*]TORONTO [/td][td=*]11-15, 6-8 away [/td][td=*]at [/td][td=*]BOSTON [/td][td=*]15-12, 9-4 at home [/td][td=*] [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Tue 7:05 [/td][td=*]RHP Halladay [/td][td=*]2-3, 3.73 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Lester [/td][td=*]1-2, 5.40 [/td][td=*]NESN - WRKO [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Wed 7:05 [/td][td=*]RHP McGowan [/td][td=*]1-2, 4.18 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Matsuzaka [/td][td=*]4-0, 3.14 [/td][td=*]NESN - WEEI [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Thu 7:05 [/td][td=*]RHP Burnett [/td][td=*]2-2, 6.07 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Wakefield [/td][td=*]2-0, 4.06 [/td][td=*]NESN - WRKO [/td][/tr][/table]

[table=07 stats][tr][td=*] [/td][td=*]Offense: [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Pitching: [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][/tr][tr][td=*] [/td][td=*]RPG [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]OPS+ [/td][td=*]AVG [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]2B [/td][td=*]HR [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]RAPG [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]ERA+ [/td][td=*]BB/G [/td][td=*]K/G [/td][td=*]HR [/td][td=*]Bullpen ERA [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]BOS [/td][td=*]5.35 [/td][td=*]4.88 [/td][td=*]away [/td][td=*]107 [/td][td=*].279 [/td][td=*].362 [/td][td=*].444 [/td][td=*]352 [/td][td=*]166 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]4.06 [/td][td=*]3.77 [/td][td=*]away [/td][td=*]123 [/td][td=*]3.0 [/td][td=*]7.1 [/td][td=*]151 [/td][td=*]3.10 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]TOR [/td][td=*]4.65 [/td][td=*]4.69 [/td][td=*]home [/td][td=*]96 [/td][td=*].259 [/td][td=*].327 [/td][td=*].419 [/td][td=*]344 [/td][td=*]165 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]4.31 [/td][td=*]4.01 [/td][td=*]home [/td][td=*]112 [/td][td=*]3.0 [/td][td=*]6.6 [/td][td=*]157 [/td][td=*]3.46 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*] AL [/td][td=*]4.90 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*].271 [/td][td=*].338 [/td][td=*].423 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]4.90 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]3.3 [/td][td=*]6.5 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][/tr][/table]

[table=07-08 stats][tr][td=*] [/td][td=*]Offense: [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]Pitching: [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]2008 [/td][td=*]RPG [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]OPS+ [/td][td=*]AVG [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]2B [/td][td=*]HR [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]RAPG [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]ERA+ [/td][td=*]BB/G [/td][td=*]K/G [/td][td=*]HR [/td][td=*]Bullpen ERA [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]TOR [/td][td=*]4.42 [/td][td=*]4.29 [/td][td=*]away [/td][td=*]97 [/td][td=*].258 [/td][td=*].346 [/td][td=*].372 [/td][td=*]35 [/td][td=*]19 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]4.19 [/td][td=*]3.79 [/td][td=*]away [/td][td=*]108 [/td][td=*]3.5 [/td][td=*]6.9 [/td][td=*]20 [/td][td=*]3.30 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]BOS [/td][td=*]4.93 [/td][td=*]6.00 [/td][td=*]home [/td][td=*]111 [/td][td=*].288 [/td][td=*].361 [/td][td=*].432 [/td][td=*]56 [/td][td=*]23 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]4.78 [/td][td=*]4.46 [/td][td=*]home [/td][td=*]97 [/td][td=*]4.3 [/td][td=*]7.4 [/td][td=*]28 [/td][td=*]5.31 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*] AL [/td][td=*]4.52 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*].260 [/td][td=*].334 [/td][td=*].399 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]4.52 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]3.6 [/td][td=*]6.0 [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]4.22 [/td][/tr][/table]

So far this season, the Sox and BJ's starters have very similar ERA's (BOS 4.25, TOR 4.18); the difference in pitching has been in the 'pens. Partly helped by the extra ~1/2 an inning of effort they've gotten from their starters, adding up to 81 relief innings for the Sox vs. just 73 for the BJ's in one less game.

The good news is we're catching TOR having just ended a 6 game losing streak, losers of 7 out of last 10 and 13 out of last 20.
The bad news is that the last series in TB took .140 off the Sox team BA.

Here's hoping the rain has ended and we can get this series in straight up.

[behindthepen]

quick addition ... good news for Lester, so far the BJ's are .222/.324/.366 vs. LHP this season.

[rembrat]

It’s time for some rate goodness.

Offense
Red Sox – GB% 43, LD% 21, BABIP .327
Blue Jays – GB% 46, LD% 17, BABIP .284

Pitching
Red Sox – GB% 44, LD% 19, FIP 4.61
Blue Jays – GB% 48 (get ready for some more GIDPs), LD% 21, FIP 3.78

[Sprowl]

The Sox are facing Halladay, McGowan and Burnett. Here's a look at what they throw, based on the [wiki]Pitchfx[/wiki] data for 3 recent games:

Halladay vs. Texas 4/17

Clockwise from the top left: fastball-cutter-curve-change. Halladay throws as many cutters as fastballs these days, along with an occasional 84-86 changeup that shows roughly the same horizontal break as his 4-seamer. The 75-79 curve is still his primary offspeed pitch. His fastball peaks around 95 mph, and that is the slowest of the starters that the Red Sox will face. Oy.

McGowan vs. Detroit 4/19

Clockwise from the top left: fastball-slider-curve-change. McGowan has spectacular stuff, topping out around 98 mph against Detroit (but at 96 in his prior start against Baltimore), but occasionally has problems controlling it (16 walks in 28 innings). The loose clusters suggest that he doesn't always know where the ball is going to go, just that it will get there fast. There's some doubt as to what kind of fastball he throws: there's quite a lot of horizontal break on some of his pitches, so there may be a mix of 4- and 2-seamers. His hard breaking pitch is closer to a slider than a cutter.

Burnett vs. Detroit 4/20

Burnett is a fastball-curve pitcher, with just a few changeups thrown in. Heat is his specialty: he occasionally reaches 100 mph on the Toronto gun, although he didn't touch 99 against the Tigers.

[behindthepen]

It’s time for some rate goodness.

Pitching

Blue Jays – GB% 48 (get ready for some more GIDPs), LD% 21, FIP 3.78

especially with Halladay going, although it'll be interesting to see how those GB's roll on a wet field. Roy is a career 58% GB'er and 61% so far this year.

Doc is 3rd in IP this season with 41, behind King Felix (45) and Blanton (49). HOWEVER, he's done it in only 5 starts, vs. 6 for Felix and 7 for Blanton, as he's just thrown 3 complete games. It's almost like they're saying, "he's going down sooner or later, we might as well get what we can out of him":

[table=Sheet4][tr][td=*]Date [/td][td=*]Opp [/td][td=*]Result [/td][td=*]Pitcher [/td][td=*]IP [/td][td=*]H [/td][td=*]R [/td][td=*]ER [/td][td=*]BB [/td][td=*]SO [/td][td=*]HR [/td][td=*]Pit [/td][td=*]Str [/td][td=*]GmSc [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]1-Apr [/td][td=*]@NYY [/td][td=*]2-3 [/td][td=*]GS-7 [/td][td=*]7 [/td][td=*]7 [/td][td=*]3 [/td][td=*]3 [/td][td=*]2 [/td][td=*]3 [/td][td=*]1 [/td][td=*]93 [/td][td=*]59 [/td][td=*]52 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]6-Apr [/td][td=*]BOS [/td][td=*]7-4 [/td][td=*]GS-8 [/td][td=*]8 [/td][td=*]8 [/td][td=*]4 [/td][td=*]4 [/td][td=*]1 [/td][td=*]6 [/td][td=*]3 [/td][td=*]107 [/td][td=*]77 [/td][td=*]55 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]12-Apr [/td][td=*]@TEX [/td][td=*]4-1 [/td][td=*]CG [/td][td=*]9 [/td][td=*]6 [/td][td=*]1 [/td][td=*]1 [/td][td=*]1 [/td][td=*]6 [/td][td=*]0 [/td][td=*]110 [/td][td=*]73 [/td][td=*]76 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]17-Apr [/td][td=*]TEX [/td][td=*]1-4 [/td][td=*]CG [/td][td=*]9 [/td][td=*]11 [/td][td=*]4 [/td][td=*]4 [/td][td=*]1 [/td][td=*]6 [/td][td=*]0 [/td][td=*]117 [/td][td=*]79 [/td][td=*]54 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]23-Apr [/td][td=*]@TBR [/td][td=*]3-5 [/td][td=*]CG [/td][td=*]8 [/td][td=*]9 [/td][td=*]5 [/td][td=*]5 [/td][td=*]1 [/td][td=*]4 [/td][td=*]0 [/td][td=*]107 [/td][td=*]67 [/td][td=*]47 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Date [/td][td=*]Opp [/td][td=*]Result [/td][td=*]Pitcher [/td][td=*]IP [/td][td=*]H [/td][td=*]R [/td][td=*]ER [/td][td=*]BB [/td][td=*]SO [/td][td=*]HR [/td][td=*]Pit [/td][td=*]Str [/td][td=*]GmSc [/td][/tr][/table]

Despite the GB's, he's been giving up more XBH this season, with a .430 SLG compared to .373 last year and a .380 career average. However his walks are down a little and that's why he's not getting killed.

edit for readability. and yes, I'm too lazy to update the 2007 home/away stats in my first post because I'm too busy writing more posts.

This post has been edited by behindthepen: Apr 29 2008, 01:56 PM

[behindthepen]

weather: NWS says that the % precipitation will be 19% at game time, but 2% at 9pm, so I imagine this game will get played at some point tonight, although I'd be surprised if first pitch is at 7:05.

[behindthepen]

MCGOWAN

Has put up excellent numbers in his 270 career IP, with a mere .717 OPS against. However, this season he hasn't been nearly as effective, and only lasted 4+ innings in his last start @TB. (In the table below, I included the average numbers for the AL in 2007 to give some context).

Control is his major issue. Although it looks like he's had some bad luck with that .383 BABIP so far this season, his 13% BB rate won't get it done. Amazingly, he's managed to leave 74% of runners on base. Amazing because for his career, he's been much worse with men on base than bases empty, which has obviously reversed this season. FWIW, his L/R platoon splits have reversed so far this year as well.

[table=McGowan][tr][td=*]Year [/td][td=*]BA [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]OPS [/td][td=*]BAbip [/td][td=*]BB%PA [/td][td=*]K%PA [/td][td=*]HR%PA [/td][td=*]G [/td][td=*]PA [/td][td=*]IP [/td][td=*]ERA [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Career [/td][td=*].254 [/td][td=*].334 [/td][td=*].382 [/td][td=*].717 [/td][td=*].299 [/td][td=*]10.1% [/td][td=*]19.0% [/td][td=*]2.0% [/td][td=*]61 [/td][td=*]1176 [/td][td=*]270.1 [/td][td=*]4.79 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]2007 [/td][td=*].230 [/td][td=*].296 [/td][td=*].347 [/td][td=*].644 [/td][td=*].273 [/td][td=*]8.7% [/td][td=*]20.4% [/td][td=*]2.0% [/td][td=*]27 [/td][td=*]705 [/td][td=*]169.2 [/td][td=*]4.08 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]2008 [/td][td=*].311 [/td][td=*].402 [/td][td=*].408 [/td][td=*].809 [/td][td=*].383 [/td][td=*]13.0% [/td][td=*]18.7% [/td][td=*]0.8% [/td][td=*]5 [/td][td=*]123 [/td][td=*]28 [/td][td=*]4.18 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Year [/td][td=*]BA [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]OPS [/td][td=*]BAbip [/td][td=*]BB%PA [/td][td=*]K%PA [/td][td=*]HR%PA [/td][td=*]G [/td][td=*]PA [/td][td=*]IP [/td][td=*]ERA [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]-- [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]AL 2007 [/td][td=*].269 [/td][td=*].336 [/td][td=*].421 [/td][td=*].757 [/td][td=*].304 [/td][td=*]8.5% [/td][td=*]17.0% [/td][td=*]2.6% [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*] [/td][/tr][/table]


[table=McGowan][tr][td=*]Split [/td][td=*]BA [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]OPS [/td][td=*]BAbip [/td][td=*]BB%PA [/td][td=*]K%PA [/td][td=*]HR%PA [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]vsRHB [/td][td=*].247 [/td][td=*].318 [/td][td=*].320 [/td][td=*].637 [/td][td=*].297 [/td][td=*]8.4% [/td][td=*]18.3% [/td][td=*]0.9% [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]vsLHB [/td][td=*].261 [/td][td=*].350 [/td][td=*].443 [/td][td=*].794 [/td][td=*].300 [/td][td=*]11.8% [/td][td=*]19.6% [/td][td=*]3.2% [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Split [/td][td=*]BA [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]OPS [/td][td=*]BAbip [/td][td=*]BB%PA [/td][td=*]K%PA [/td][td=*]HR%PA [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Home [/td][td=*].239 [/td][td=*].303 [/td][td=*].358 [/td][td=*].661 [/td][td=*].286 [/td][td=*]7.8% [/td][td=*]20.7% [/td][td=*]2.0% [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Away [/td][td=*].269 [/td][td=*].363 [/td][td=*].406 [/td][td=*].769 [/td][td=*].311 [/td][td=*]12.2% [/td][td=*]17.4% [/td][td=*]2.1% [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Split [/td][td=*]BA [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]OPS [/td][td=*]BAbip [/td][td=*]BB%PA [/td][td=*]K%PA [/td][td=*]HR%PA [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]NoneOn [/td][td=*].239 [/td][td=*].313 [/td][td=*].359 [/td][td=*].672 [/td][td=*].287 [/td][td=*]8.7% [/td][td=*]19.8% [/td][td=*]1.9% [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]MenOn [/td][td=*].274 [/td][td=*].360 [/td][td=*].412 [/td][td=*].772 [/td][td=*].313 [/td][td=*]11.9% [/td][td=*]17.9% [/td][td=*]2.3% [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Split [/td][td=*]BA [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]OPS [/td][td=*]BAbip [/td][td=*]BB%PA [/td][td=*]K%PA [/td][td=*]HR%PA [/td][/tr][/table]

[wiki]Pitchfx[/wiki] data for 3 recent games:

McGowan vs. Detroit 4/19

Clockwise from the top left: fastball-slider-curve-change. McGowan has spectacular stuff, topping out around 98 mph against Detroit (but at 96 in his prior start against Baltimore), but occasionally has problems controlling it (16 walks in 28 innings). The loose clusters suggest that he doesn't always know where the ball is going to go, just that it will get there fast. There's some doubt as to what kind of fastball he throws: there's quite a lot of horizontal break on some of his pitches, so there may be a mix of 4- and 2-seamers. His hard breaking pitch is closer to a slider than a cutter.

[behindthepen]

Overall, Wakey has had an in-line season, with his line of .250/.360/.371 and 4.06 ERA both averaging out better than career averages. The obvious blemish is the BB rate, which at 17 in 140 PA, is well above his historical average. On the flip side, so far this season he's only given up 1 2B and 2 3B so his ISO is only .120, well below his recent years of .160-.180.

Looking at his splits, they've reversed so far this year, but mainly because RHB are having bad luck (.254 BABIP) and LHB good luck (.303 BABIP), so it appears we're getting the typical healthy Wakefield so far in 2008.

The worst news is probably that he's on a career pace for SB allowed, with 8 already this season.


On a completely different note, does anyone know the last time we didn't have a rainout in April????

[behindthepen]

BURNETT

not even sure where to start here ... the guy who put up the .214/.302/.362 line last year in 164 IP or the .308/.382/.458 guy this year? Yeah, his BABIP this season is .350, vs. .284 for his career, but his BB rate is up, K rate is down (DOWN A LOT!), and he's 31 y.o. with an injury history, so there's a chance it's not just luck.

If you look at the pitch data summary on bref, he's only getting a swing and a miss 14% of the time, compared to 18% in 07. Called strikeouts are down to 16% from a career 30%.

[table=AJB][tr][td=*]Year [/td][td=*]BA [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]OPS [/td][td=*]BAbip [/td][td=*]BB%PA [/td][td=*]K%PA [/td][td=*]HR%PA [/td][td=*]G [/td][td=*]PA [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]2007 [/td][td=*].214 [/td][td=*].302 [/td][td=*].362 [/td][td=*].664 [/td][td=*].261 [/td][td=*]9.6% [/td][td=*]25.5% [/td][td=*]3.3% [/td][td=*]25 [/td][td=*]691 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]2008 [/td][td=*].308 [/td][td=*].382 [/td][td=*].458 [/td][td=*].841 [/td][td=*].350 [/td][td=*]10.8% [/td][td=*]13.7% [/td][td=*]1.4% [/td][td=*]6 [/td][td=*]139 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]CAREER [/td][td=*].234 [/td][td=*].317 [/td][td=*].362 [/td][td=*].679 [/td][td=*].284 [/td][td=*]9.9% [/td][td=*]21.3% [/td][td=*]2.1% [/td][td=*] [/td][td=*]4999 [/td][/tr][tr][td=*]Year [/td][td=*]BA [/td][td=*]OBP [/td][td=*]SLG [/td][td=*]OPS [/td][td=*]BAbip [/td][td=*]BB%PA [/td][td=*]K%PA [/td][td=*]HR%PA [/td][td=*]G [/td][td=*]PA [/td][/tr][/table]

[BCsMightyJoeYoun...]

Anectdotaly, I've seen Burnett pitch a couple of times this year. He hasn't been using his curve very much - and hasn't commanded it particularly well when he HAS used it. IIRC, he had a hand injury in ST which restricted his use of the curve? If so, it's probably still bothering him.

[behindthepen]

Anectdotaly, I've seen Burnett pitch a couple of times this year. He hasn't been using his curve very much - and hasn't commanded it particularly well when he HAS used it. IIRC, he had a hand injury in ST which restricted his use of the curve? If so, it's probably still bothering him.

looking at fangraphs and BJOL, he's about the same %age of curveballs in 08 as 07. I guess the question is how effective it is.