Does Tito get blamed for the HR off Buchholz? Options

[mabrowndog]

I realize the game thread is where rational baseball discourse goes to slaughter, but I have to point out some posts after Iwamura belted a hanging curveball for the win tonight:

Why do we have Papelbon on this team?

There was no need to push the kid over 100 pitches, he's already given more than the team can ask for. Stupid stupid stupid.

At game. 111 pitches you would think a rested oki or paps would make sense. Cowbells up my ass

My intent is not to slight the posters. They voice a common viewpoint -- that Papelbon (or Okajima) should have been brought in after Clay gave up the single in the 8th. However, I vehemently disagree that bringing in Papelbon (or Okajima) would have so assuredly preserved the win.

* Buchholz was, to put it mildly, cruising. He had gotten stronger as the game wore on, and his command got better with each inning.
* After throwing 23 pitches in the first, his pitch counts had steadily decreased in nearly every successive inning.
* Iwamura's home run was off a mistake pitch, a curve left too high in the zone -- the first such pitch of the night from Clay.
* Paps and Okajima are just as likely to leave a pitch up like that as Buchholz is.

Maybe it's because I began watching baseball in an era when complete games were commonplace in 4-man rotations and without Tommy John surgeries, but it really bugs me when fans today simply assume that 100 pitches = mandatory closer appearance. This was Clay's 8th major league start, covering parts of two seasons. From my vantage, fatigue had NOTHING to do with this loss. One could argue that Paps or Okajima might have provided a different look to the TB hitters -- but that's not the argument that was being posed in the game thread.

Anyway, I think it's worth a discussion outside of the normal postgame analysis threads. With all the shit that the Sox bullpen has been tossing of late, does Tito get hung for sticking with his starter too long tonight?

This post has been edited by mabrowndog: Apr 26 2008, 09:19 PM

[Bowlerman9]

I had no problem with leaving him out there, for the reasons you stated. The inning would have been over if not for the terrible missed 3rd strike two batters before. Great game, one bad pitch, zero offense.

[Pumpsie]

The short answer is "Yes!"

The long answer is that Papelbon, one of the best closers in the majors, is on the roster to close out games and he was already too well rested. He HAD to get in this game and coming in with one runner on in the 8th was the spot.

Buchholz had already hung TWO curves that very inning before the home run pitch and was tiring. That Tek didn't notice this and called for yet another curve is what really ticks me off perhaps even more than Tito's brainfart.

Why leave the rookie in there? To put him past his limit? To test him? What's the point? He's not going for a no-hitter. We're trying to get a win and break our losing streak. You take him out when a runner gets on, he gets a chance for a nice ovation, AND he gets a win.

This loss goes on Tito. Really, really stupid decision here.

[jayhoz]

To that point Buchholz was dealing. There were no signs of fatigue. He snapped off a great curveball that missed location which Iwamura was looking for and it got crushed. No reason to slam Francona at all.

This post has been edited by jayhoz: Apr 26 2008, 09:17 PM

[mabrowndog]

Lurker Snowmanny brings up a good point, something I failed to consider:

Francona had Okajima warming up. He had Papelbon warming up in the 8th. What situation was he warming him up for for? It looked like his plan was to pull Buchholz quickly and he veered off that plan. The loss hurts, but I hate to see a rookie pitch a game like that and then be given a chance to blow it, when it was unnecessary.

Francona's really good, but this one is on him.

[jayhoz]

Francona had Okajima warming up. He had Papelbon warming up in the 8th. What situation was he warming him up for for? It looked like his plan was to pull Buchholz quickly and he veered off that plan. The loss hurts, but I hate to see a rookie pitch a game like that and then be given a chance to blow it, when it was unnecessary.

Francona's really good, but this one is on him.

I would say that he had them warming in case Buchholz got in trouble or looked gassed. Neither of those things happened.

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

In hindsight I think it's more than fair to note that the Sox have now just played 2 consecutive 1 run games with a rested Paps in the pen. Tito chose not to use him in either game.

Unless he's got the flu or an injury we're not aware of, I'm at a loss to understand why Tito wouldn't use his best reliever at some point in either of the games. Close games are games with the highest leverage, and those are games you'd want to have your best reliever in.

This is obviously hindsight. At the time of the pitch to Iwamura it was definitely not a clear decision that Papelbon should have been in there. I do think a rookie pitcher up past 110 pitches is more likely to make a mistake pitch given his relative lack of experience and perhaps not being used to going so deep into games. I'm sure no one would have given Tito much crap for pulling Buchholz after giving up the hit in the 8th and not allowing him to face Iwamura.

It's also virtually certain that Paps will pitch an inning tomorrow no matter what the situation merely to get some work in. If that's the case I think there's no reason why he could not have been used tonight in the 8th.

[mabrowndog]

I'm sure no one would have given Tito much crap for pulling Buchholz after giving up the hit in the 8th and not allowing him to face Iwamura.

Conversely, how many would have pilloried Tito if his move to the pen had backfired -- and Oki or Paps had given up a game-winning hit? I'm convinced many would have blamed Francona for pulling a pitcher who'd showed no signs of struggling up to that point.

[rembrat]

There is no question that he was dealing because he was, he was fucking on tonight and had the offense mustered up more than a run he could have managed to get away with making a mistake pitch.

Since no one is going to argue whether he was tired or not the real question should be "did the miscall on the curve to Navarro rattle him"?

And to answer dog's question, I would have pulled him as soon as he gave up the single. In a 1 run game there is little room for error and your best pitcher has a lot of experience dealing in those situations.

[Pumpsie]

Conversely, how many would have pilloried Tito if his move to the pen had backfired -- and Oki or Paps had given up a game-winning hit? I'm convinced many would have blamed Francona for pulling a pitcher who'd showed no signs of struggling up to that point.

No one...or hardly anyone...except for you, maybe. This is why Papelbon is on the team. It's his job to do or die. He's great at it. He's well-rested. Why he hasn't been used in the past two games is a real head-scratcher. Bad decision by Tito.

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

Conversely, how many would have pilloried Tito if his move to the pen had backfired -- and Oki or Paps had given up a game-winning hit? I'm convinced many would have blamed Francona for pulling a pitcher who'd showed no signs of struggling up to that point.

Meh. A rookie pitcher pushed past 105 pitches or so? I think it would be reasonable to think Tito would have him on a short leash in the 8th. If he pulled him after allowing the hit and Oki or Paps blew up, sure there'd be bitching but the decision would have been a reasonable one.

In short I think it's ultimately tough to defend Tito for not using his stud reliever in either last night's game or tonight's. And it will be even more difficult to do so tomorrow if Paps gets a garbage inning.

[mabrowndog]

Tito in postgame: Iwamura has more trouble against righties than lefties.

He's right about the reverse split. While that might explain why he wouldn't bring in Okajima, but doesn't really dissuade the Papelbon camp.

[Zupcic Fan]

In my opinion, there would have been nothing wrong with pulling him to begin the inning. There would have been nothing wrong with pulling him after the single. There was also nothing wrong with leaving him in as Francona chose to do. It just wasn't a situation with a right and wrong. And whenever that happens, Francona will get criticized when the decision he makes ends up not working. Simple as that.

I didn't see much difference between the pitch that gave up the home run and the one that Pena hit earlier that luckily for some strange reason went foul. And certainly the first one had nothing to do with his being tired.

And Papelbon certainly would have pitched the ninth inning. And still would have been able to pitch on Sunday----which might not have been the case if he pitched two more outs in the 8th and the whole ninth. so even that makes sense to me.

I have no problem with people bashing Francona with this since it's pretty standard when something like this happens, and people are pissed. It happened regularly after most losses last year.

The whole bevy of lousy at bats over the past few games is far more annoying to me than any manager's decision here.

By the way, Tampa Bay should be a fun team to watch for the few fans that the team has.

[irinmike]

Paps is not going to be brought into a game this time of the year without the RS having a lead. The kid was pitching great and showed no signs of tiring.

[OilCanShotTupac]

Paps is not going to be brought into a game this time of the year without the RS having a lead. The kid was pitching great and showed no signs of tiring.

Um. . . they did have the lead.

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

And Papelbon certainly would have pitched the ninth inning. And still would have been able to pitch on Sunday----which might not have been the case if he pitched two more outs in the 8th and the whole ninth. so even that makes sense to me.

Given how little work he's gotten lately, I think Paps would have been able to pitch tomorrow even if he had to get 5 outs tonight. But that's really besides the point. If there's a three run lead tomorrow and Paps had to get 5 outs tonight, they could easily use Oki or MDC for any save attempt.

Tito's choice was either to use Paps tonight with 5 outs to go, or use him tomorrow no matter what because he's not worked in a while. Given that a potential situation tomorrow is not very likely to be higher leverage than the one that presented itself tonight, I think not using Paps tonight was a mistake.

[OilCanShotTupac]

The whole bevy of lousy at bats over the past few games is far more annoying to me than any manager's decision here.

I agree 100%. The offense failed tonight.

Anyone who would have taken "8 IP, 2 ER" from Buchholz tonight, raise your hand. All of you? I thought so.

[OilCanShotTupac]

Unless he's got the flu or an injury we're not aware of, I'm at a loss to understand why Tito wouldn't use his best reliever at some point in either of the games. Close games are games with the highest leverage, and those are games you'd want to have your best reliever in.

It's at least feasible that he does have the flu or an injury we don't know about, however minor, and because we don't know that for sure, this is sort of an academic exercise. Which is fine, that's how we do, but it's possible that there is a reason why Papelbon didn't pitch tonight and that said reason is unavailable to us.

It's also possible that Papelbon was available, but Tito wanted to give Buchholz the experience of working later into a game in an early-season spot. It's true he's pitched a no-hitter, but that's kind of an anomaly, goofy situation. This kid may need to pitch late into a game in a tight spot in August, September, or October. Let's let him stretch it out a little here.

In short, I think you can come up with plausible arguments both for using Paps and for keeping Buchholz in. This was not a Pedro/Gump situation - Buchholz was not clearly gassed and we weren't all screaming at the TV when Iwamura came up.

[drtooth]

I know this is a "How Tito screwed this up" thread, it can not be ignored that the Sox have scored 1 run in 8 innings against the Rays pen. This is a game that the pen of the last 2 years in Tampa would have blown. Have to give them some credit also.

[Pumpsie]

I agree 100%. The offense failed tonight.

Anyone who would have taken "8 IP, 2 ER" from Buchholz tonight, raise your hand. All of you? I thought so.

Still doesn't get Tito off the hook, however. The game was there to be won. Both Papelbon and Okajima were rested and ready and Tito couldn't pull the trigger. A Grady-esque moment.