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purchase crap here Amazon.com |
Feb 24 2008, 02:48 PM
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SoSH Member Posts: 9,672 |
We're happy to have Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus (and more specifically the creator of the PECOTA projections) stop by to do a chat.
People who are subscribers know that the PECOTA cards have been a drawn out delivery this year but the hitter cards were posted this weekend with the pitcher cards expected soon-ish. In part due to that we haven't yet settled on an exact time, but we'll be handling this like previous "chats" where we simply ask for questions and let Nate answer at his convenience. As a result we'll open this thread up to questions. I assume there will be a lot of specific interest in the PECOTA process, but any baseball related questions are welcome. Just a few things I've noticed perusing the hitter cards and some things that Nate has mentioned previously: - the new cards feature platoon splits - because predicting 5 years of performance was apparently too easy the new cards feature 7(!) year forcasts - draft status and signing bonus totals are now included which has led to projections for players without professional experience like David Price - as a result of a change in the underlying Davenport Translations very young minor leaguers project much worse than they used too And a whole lot more, I'm sure. Edit: And thanks to Hairps for facilitating the chat. |
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philly sox fan Chat with BP's Nate Silver, Wed at 3 PM Feb 24 2008, 02:48 PM
philly sox fan RE: Chat with BP's Nate Silver, Wed at 3 PM Feb 24 2008, 03:03 PM
NateSilver RE: Chat with BP's Nate Silver, Wed at 3 PM Feb 27 2008, 03:12 PM
ScubaSteveAvery I have a couple questions:
1. Regarding the new c... Feb 24 2008, 03:44 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(ScubaSteveAvery @ Feb 24 2008, 04:4... Feb 27 2008, 03:21 PM
Rough Carrigan One question right now.
Does PECOTA take into acc... Feb 24 2008, 06:11 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 24 2008, 07:11... Feb 27 2008, 03:28 PM
DSG What is an average breakout score? Collapse? Impro... Feb 25 2008, 03:19 AM
NateSilver QUOTE(DSG @ Feb 25 2008, 04:19 AM) 139180... Feb 27 2008, 03:40 PM
philly sox fan In looking at some of these very long term project... Feb 25 2008, 08:09 AM
Rough Carrigan Josh Beckett walked 40 batters last year. Yet, ev... Feb 25 2008, 12:51 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 25 2008, 01:51... Feb 27 2008, 03:48 PM
Rough Carrigan Have you considered making more specific adjustmen... Feb 25 2008, 02:25 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 25 2008, 03:25... Feb 27 2008, 03:51 PM
Worst Trade Evah My question is about the quality of age progressio... Feb 25 2008, 02:59 PM
PedroKsBambino To what degree do you find that pitchers performan... Feb 26 2008, 01:21 PM

Kevin Youkulele For hitters, "old player skills" have be... Feb 26 2008, 01:34 PM


NateSilver QUOTE(Kevin Youkulele @ Feb 26 2008, 02:3... Feb 27 2008, 04:31 PM

NateSilver QUOTE(PedroKsBambino @ Feb 26 2008, 02:21... Feb 27 2008, 04:29 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 25 2008, 03... Feb 27 2008, 03:55 PM
Rough Carrigan Could you please explain how a player's fieldi... Feb 25 2008, 06:09 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 25 2008, 07:09... Feb 27 2008, 03:58 PM
philly sox fan Note that there is now a 3 pm Wed time for a ... Feb 26 2008, 12:11 AM
philly sox fan Do you plan to another series of PECOTA prospect p... Feb 26 2008, 12:26 AM
NateSilver QUOTE(philly sox fan @ Feb 26 2008, 01:26... Feb 27 2008, 04:06 PM
gammoseditor Coco Crisp's FRAA went from -1 in his first ye... Feb 26 2008, 03:14 AM
NateSilver QUOTE(gammoseditor @ Feb 26 2008, 04:14 A... Feb 27 2008, 04:08 PM
Worst Trade Evah In Bill James's recent essay on Craig Biggio h... Feb 26 2008, 01:05 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 26 2008, 02... Feb 27 2008, 04:15 PM
Rough Carrigan Do the PECOTA comparables recognize groundball vs.... Feb 26 2008, 01:11 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 26 2008, 02:11... Feb 27 2008, 04:17 PM
Hairps - How far away are we from being able to integrate... Feb 26 2008, 01:13 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Hairps @ Feb 26 2008, 02:13 PM) 139... Feb 27 2008, 04:21 PM
Worst Trade Evah What is the marginal value of a sabermetrician to ... Feb 26 2008, 03:59 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 26 2008, 04... Feb 27 2008, 04:36 PM
Worst Trade Evah I guess I'm on a roll, so...
You feel value i... Feb 26 2008, 04:11 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 26 2008, 05... Feb 27 2008, 04:38 PM
Tangotiger QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 26 2008, 09... Feb 27 2008, 08:20 PM
Tangotiger Here are two relevant threads that I wrote that re... Feb 27 2008, 09:00 PM
Rough Carrigan In the 2008 Baseball Prospectus writeup on Vernon ... Feb 27 2008, 12:21 AM
NateSilver QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 27 2008, 01:21... Feb 27 2008, 04:39 PM
Tony C My question is how much is Pecota a quantitative e... Feb 27 2008, 09:38 AM
NateSilver QUOTE(Tony C @ Feb 27 2008, 10:38 AM) 139... Feb 27 2008, 04:45 PM
TomRicardo When you evaluate a pitcher who was injured last y... Feb 27 2008, 10:47 AM
NateSilver QUOTE(TomRicardo @ Feb 27 2008, 11:47 AM)... Feb 27 2008, 04:48 PM
Kevin Youkulele How much does the formula for WARP get recalibrate... Feb 27 2008, 11:07 AM
Frisbetarian Nate should be here shortly to answer your questio... Feb 27 2008, 02:42 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(Kevin Youkulele @ Feb 27 2008, 12:0... Feb 27 2008, 04:51 PM
NateSilver Testing 1, 2, 3. Testing. Feb 27 2008, 02:58 PM
NateSilver QUOTE(NateSilver @ Feb 27 2008, 03:58 PM)... Feb 27 2008, 03:02 PM
Rough Carrigan Ron Shandler had or perhaps still has a practice o... Feb 27 2008, 04:52 PM
Worst Trade Evah Aside from the "clutch" problem, do some... Feb 27 2008, 04:57 PM
Frisbetarian I would like to thank Nate for taking the time to ... Feb 27 2008, 05:39 PM![]() ![]() |
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