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> Chat with BP's Nate Silver, Wed at 3 PM
philly sox fan
post Feb 24 2008, 02:48 PM
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We're happy to have Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus (and more specifically the creator of the PECOTA projections) stop by to do a chat.

People who are subscribers know that the PECOTA cards have been a drawn out delivery this year but the hitter cards were posted this weekend with the pitcher cards expected soon-ish. In part due to that we haven't yet settled on an exact time, but we'll be handling this like previous "chats" where we simply ask for questions and let Nate answer at his convenience. As a result we'll open this thread up to questions.

I assume there will be a lot of specific interest in the PECOTA process, but any baseball related questions are welcome.

Just a few things I've noticed perusing the hitter cards and some things that Nate has mentioned previously:

- the new cards feature platoon splits
- because predicting 5 years of performance was apparently too easy the new cards feature 7(!) year forcasts
- draft status and signing bonus totals are now included which has led to projections for players without professional experience like David Price
- as a result of a change in the underlying Davenport Translations very young minor leaguers project much worse than they used too

And a whole lot more, I'm sure.

Edit: And thanks to Hairps for facilitating the chat.
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Posts in this topic
- philly sox fan   Chat with BP's Nate Silver, Wed at 3 PM   Feb 24 2008, 02:48 PM
- - philly sox fan   RE: Chat with BP's Nate Silver, Wed at 3 PM   Feb 24 2008, 03:03 PM
|- - NateSilver   RE: Chat with BP's Nate Silver, Wed at 3 PM   Feb 27 2008, 03:12 PM
- - ScubaSteveAvery   I have a couple questions: 1. Regarding the new c...   Feb 24 2008, 03:44 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(ScubaSteveAvery @ Feb 24 2008, 04:4...   Feb 27 2008, 03:21 PM
- - Rough Carrigan   One question right now. Does PECOTA take into acc...   Feb 24 2008, 06:11 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 24 2008, 07:11...   Feb 27 2008, 03:28 PM
- - DSG   What is an average breakout score? Collapse? Impro...   Feb 25 2008, 03:19 AM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(DSG @ Feb 25 2008, 04:19 AM) 139180...   Feb 27 2008, 03:40 PM
- - philly sox fan   In looking at some of these very long term project...   Feb 25 2008, 08:09 AM
- - Rough Carrigan   Josh Beckett walked 40 batters last year. Yet, ev...   Feb 25 2008, 12:51 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 25 2008, 01:51...   Feb 27 2008, 03:48 PM
- - Rough Carrigan   Have you considered making more specific adjustmen...   Feb 25 2008, 02:25 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 25 2008, 03:25...   Feb 27 2008, 03:51 PM
- - Worst Trade Evah   My question is about the quality of age progressio...   Feb 25 2008, 02:59 PM
|- - PedroKsBambino   To what degree do you find that pitchers performan...   Feb 26 2008, 01:21 PM
||- - Kevin Youkulele   For hitters, "old player skills" have be...   Feb 26 2008, 01:34 PM
|||- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Kevin Youkulele @ Feb 26 2008, 02:3...   Feb 27 2008, 04:31 PM
||- - NateSilver   QUOTE(PedroKsBambino @ Feb 26 2008, 02:21...   Feb 27 2008, 04:29 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 25 2008, 03...   Feb 27 2008, 03:55 PM
- - Rough Carrigan   Could you please explain how a player's fieldi...   Feb 25 2008, 06:09 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 25 2008, 07:09...   Feb 27 2008, 03:58 PM
- - philly sox fan   Note that there is now a 3 pm Wed time for a ...   Feb 26 2008, 12:11 AM
- - philly sox fan   Do you plan to another series of PECOTA prospect p...   Feb 26 2008, 12:26 AM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(philly sox fan @ Feb 26 2008, 01:26...   Feb 27 2008, 04:06 PM
- - gammoseditor   Coco Crisp's FRAA went from -1 in his first ye...   Feb 26 2008, 03:14 AM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(gammoseditor @ Feb 26 2008, 04:14 A...   Feb 27 2008, 04:08 PM
- - Worst Trade Evah   In Bill James's recent essay on Craig Biggio h...   Feb 26 2008, 01:05 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 26 2008, 02...   Feb 27 2008, 04:15 PM
- - Rough Carrigan   Do the PECOTA comparables recognize groundball vs....   Feb 26 2008, 01:11 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 26 2008, 02:11...   Feb 27 2008, 04:17 PM
- - Hairps   - How far away are we from being able to integrate...   Feb 26 2008, 01:13 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Hairps @ Feb 26 2008, 02:13 PM) 139...   Feb 27 2008, 04:21 PM
- - Worst Trade Evah   What is the marginal value of a sabermetrician to ...   Feb 26 2008, 03:59 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 26 2008, 04...   Feb 27 2008, 04:36 PM
- - Worst Trade Evah   I guess I'm on a roll, so... You feel value i...   Feb 26 2008, 04:11 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 26 2008, 05...   Feb 27 2008, 04:38 PM
|- - Tangotiger   QUOTE(Worst Trade Evah @ Feb 26 2008, 09...   Feb 27 2008, 08:20 PM
|- - Tangotiger   Here are two relevant threads that I wrote that re...   Feb 27 2008, 09:00 PM
- - Rough Carrigan   In the 2008 Baseball Prospectus writeup on Vernon ...   Feb 27 2008, 12:21 AM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Rough Carrigan @ Feb 27 2008, 01:21...   Feb 27 2008, 04:39 PM
- - Tony C   My question is how much is Pecota a quantitative e...   Feb 27 2008, 09:38 AM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Tony C @ Feb 27 2008, 10:38 AM) 139...   Feb 27 2008, 04:45 PM
- - TomRicardo   When you evaluate a pitcher who was injured last y...   Feb 27 2008, 10:47 AM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(TomRicardo @ Feb 27 2008, 11:47 AM)...   Feb 27 2008, 04:48 PM
- - Kevin Youkulele   How much does the formula for WARP get recalibrate...   Feb 27 2008, 11:07 AM
|- - Frisbetarian   Nate should be here shortly to answer your questio...   Feb 27 2008, 02:42 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(Kevin Youkulele @ Feb 27 2008, 12:0...   Feb 27 2008, 04:51 PM
- - NateSilver   Testing 1, 2, 3. Testing.   Feb 27 2008, 02:58 PM
|- - NateSilver   QUOTE(NateSilver @ Feb 27 2008, 03:58 PM)...   Feb 27 2008, 03:02 PM
- - Rough Carrigan   Ron Shandler had or perhaps still has a practice o...   Feb 27 2008, 04:52 PM
- - Worst Trade Evah   Aside from the "clutch" problem, do some...   Feb 27 2008, 04:57 PM
- - Frisbetarian   I would like to thank Nate for taking the time to ...   Feb 27 2008, 05:39 PM


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