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purchase crap here Amazon.com  Buy.com |
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 Oct 22 2007, 08:43 AM
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  Posts: 4,345 From: Section 41  |
edit: updated start times and Cook/Lester. UPDATED START TIMES AGAIN ...
2007 WS
How spooky is it that both teams scored the same runs per game post ASG? And the same RPG at home? comparisons
This post has been edited by behindthepen: Oct 25 2007, 02:56 PM -------------------- Everybody's so busy wanting to be down with the gang. "I'm conservative", "I'm liberal", "I'm conservative". Bull****! Be a f***ing person! Lis-ten! Let it swirl around your head. Then form your opinion. No normal, decent person is one thing, okay? -C. Rock |
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Oct 22 2007, 09:16 AM
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#2
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  Posts: 4,163 From: So Ill |
I've been surfing around a bit trying to figure out the pitching matchups. Seems like Cook's alleged return to health disrupts things a bit for the Colorado Rockies
So the matchups for 3 & 4 are 3 Dice-K 4 Lester (or Wake) vs two out of Aaron Cook, Josh Fogg and Franklin Morales... The Colorado Rockies and Sox face similar decisions about whether or not to go with a (recently/possibly) injured vet vs a very inexperienced rook. And btw, Morales has a drastic H/R split in favor of the road (6.23/2.05) in very SSS... Not that this makes them easier to face in the WS, but the Rockies have caught lightening in a bottle in more ways than one... Check out Morales ml periphs, for instance... 4.92 BB/9 9.71 K/9 ... and those numbers were much worse in AA and AAA. Similar ml numbers for Jimenez: 4.47 BB/9 8.81 K/9 But in the majors, Morales is 3.20/5.95 and Jimenez 4.01/7.13 Which will prevail, the Sox ability to wear down pitchers with shaky control, or the rookie kryptonite effect? This post has been edited by Todd Benzinger: Oct 22 2007, 09:30 AM -------------------- Papi on being tested for steroids: "All they are going to find is a lot of rice and beans."
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Oct 22 2007, 11:14 AM
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Posts: 4,345 From: Section 41 |
Here's the discussion thread from the June series ... June rockies thread
With the question of who should sit in Coors Field, I thought I'd take a look at Francis' H/R and L/R splits: FRANCIS
His L/R splits have been relatively consistent, he's just been a much better pitcher overall these past 2 years. Depending on the scenario, there has to be a temptation to sit Papi in Colorado when/if Francis pitches there. Coors Field Park Index
This post has been edited by behindthepen: Oct 22 2007, 11:15 AM -------------------- Everybody's so busy wanting to be down with the gang. "I'm conservative", "I'm liberal", "I'm conservative". Bull****! Be a f***ing person! Lis-ten! Let it swirl around your head. Then form your opinion. No normal, decent person is one thing, okay? -C. Rock |
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Oct 22 2007, 11:30 AM
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#4
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 Posts: 194 From: New York, NY |
Jeff Francis versus Red Sox hitters:
CODE **PA** AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss +-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ J.D. Drew 10 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 .300 .300 .300 .600 0 0 0 0 0 Coco Crisp 7 6 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 .333 .429 .500 .929 0 0 0 0 0 Mike Lowell 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167 .167 .167 .334 0 0 0 0 0 Julio Lugo 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .400 .400 .400 .800 1 0 0 0 0 David Ortiz 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .667 .000 .667 0 0 0 1 0 Dustin Pedroia 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .666 0 0 0 0 0 Manny Ramirez 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .666 0 0 0 0 0 Jason Varitek 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .667 .667 .667 1.334 0 0 0 0 0 Kevin Youkilis 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Eric Hinske 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1.000 1.000 2.000 3.000 0 0 0 0 0 Looks like Crisp has hit well vs. Francis. Wonder if he'll get the start in Game 1. I noticed that Crisp looked really dejected yesterday, both on the bench, and even in the field. Thank God he made that highlight-reel play to end the ALCS, and boost his spirits.\ BTW: Jimenez has only faced Lugo, who hit a single off him in his obly plate appearance. This post has been edited by syoo8: Oct 22 2007, 11:33 AM |
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Oct 22 2007, 11:35 AM
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#5
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Posts: 434 |
QUOTE (syoo8 @ Oct 22 2007, 12:30 PM)  Looks like Crisp has hit well vs. Francis. Wonder if he'll get the start in Game 1. I noticed that Crisp looked really dejected yesterday, both on the bench, and even in the field. Thank God he made that highlight-reel play to end the ALCS, and boost his spirits. I see the CF choice for next season as a tough one, but think that Ellsbury will start Game 1. Crisp's dejection was noticeable, and really is a pity - I like the guy, but think he's too prone to offensive letdowns. Unfortunately his ceiling as a hitter isn't as high as Ellsbury's, and I think it's very possible he will be traded in the offseason. It would be unfair to hold him as a 4th outfielder - don't you think? |
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Oct 22 2007, 11:35 AM
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#6
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Posts: 194 From: New York, NY |
We've hit Josh Fogg well. Especially The Genius.
CODE **PA** AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss +-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ J.D. Drew 26 21 4 1 0 2 2 4 5 .190 .346 .524 .870 0 0 0 1 0 Julio Lugo 20 19 4 1 0 0 1 1 4 .211 .250 .263 .513 0 0 0 0 0 Mike Lowell 17 16 6 1 0 1 3 1 1 .375 .412 .625 1.037 0 0 0 0 0 Alex Cora 12 11 6 1 0 1 2 1 0 .545 .583 .909 1.492 0 0 0 0 0 David Ortiz 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 Manny Ramirez 6 6 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 .333 .333 .333 .666 0 0 0 0 1 Jason Varitek 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .250 .400 .250 .650 0 0 0 0 0 Coco Crisp 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Kevin Youkilis 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 .667 .667 1.000 1.667 0 0 0 0 0 Josh Beckett 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 Eric Hinske 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 +-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ Total 102 93 30 5 0 4 10 8 13 .323 .382 .505 .887 0 0 0 1 1 Nobody has seen Morales on the RS thus far. This post has been edited by syoo8: Oct 22 2007, 11:37 AM |
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Oct 22 2007, 11:39 AM
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#7
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Posts: 194 From: New York, NY |
And finally, our numbers vs. Aaron Cook.
CODE **PA** AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP G_miss YR_miss
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ Alex Cora 16 16 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 .125 .125 .125 .250 0 0 0 0 0 J.D. Drew 12 11 4 1 1 1 5 1 1 .364 .417 .909 1.326 0 0 0 0 2 Julio Lugo 8 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 .250 .250 .375 .625 0 0 0 0 0 Mike Lowell 7 6 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 .500 .571 .500 1.071 0 0 0 0 1 David Ortiz 6 4 3 0 0 0 1 2 1 .750 .833 .750 1.583 0 0 0 0 0 Manny Ramirez 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000 .167 .000 .167 0 0 0 0 1 Dustin Pedroia 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 0 0 0 0 0 Kevin Youkilis 4 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 .250 .250 .500 .750 0 0 0 0 0 Coco Crisp 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .666 0 0 0 0 0 Bobby Kielty 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .666 0 0 0 0 0 Doug Mirabelli 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 1 Jason Varitek 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 +-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+---+---+---+---+---+------+-------+ Total 74 67 18 3 1 1 9 7 10 .269 .338 .388 .726 0 0 0 0 5 |
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Oct 22 2007, 07:09 PM
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Posts: 4,345 From: Section 41 |
HOME RUN PARK FACTORS at 50 degrees Farenheit, using hittracker's macro:
COORS
FENWAY
So in general, we should see ~33% more HR at Coors than at Fenway in 50 degree weather, with the most dramatic impact to RCF. -------------------- Everybody's so busy wanting to be down with the gang. "I'm conservative", "I'm liberal", "I'm conservative". Bull****! Be a f***ing person! Lis-ten! Let it swirl around your head. Then form your opinion. No normal, decent person is one thing, okay? -C. Rock |
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Oct 23 2007, 11:24 AM
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#9
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 Posts: 3,633 From: Mario Kart World |
QUOTE (behindthepen @ Oct 22 2007, 08:09 PM) So in general, we should see ~33% more HR at Coors than at Fenway in 50 degree weather, with the most dramatic impact to RCF. Manny likes. Ortiz likes, too. I also had no idea that Fenway's CF killed slugging as much as it does. That must mean shots like Drew's GS and Trot's game-winner in 03 were truly colossal blasts. -------------------- "This is shameful. Like being caught masturbating to pictures of your aunt shameful." - TheStoryofYourRedRightAnkle on the Pats-Titans blowout
"Ya know, this team's had its struggles. But if [the Nats] go 66-29 for the rest of the season, they finish a .500 ballclub." -- Rob "Officer" Dibble |
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Oct 23 2007, 12:12 PM
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Posts: 4,345 From: Section 41 |
Now let's take a look at the Rockies offense. Here's their 2007 season numbers by lineup position (including P's):
COL hitting
and for comparison: COL hitting
My observations: -They were very, very strong from 3-6, leading the NL in OPS from those spots at .923, beating 2nd place at .880. -On the other hand, they were below average at #1-2, with only a .338 OBP, just below NL average. Earlier in the season, the Sox suffered from a similar problem in the leadoff position as Coco and Lugo stunk it up. The good news is that they had a fix for it. The Rockies in the postseason batted Matsui/Tulowitzki 1/2 in the DS and Taveras/Matsui 1/2 in the CS. Their season OBP were fine: Taveras .367 PS: .250 Matsui .342 PS: .375 Tulowitzki .359 PS: .233 but for some reason, Matsui hasn't performed well in the #2. For most of the season, Taveras was a .360+/- OBP guy, despite the fact that he had been a .340 OBP guy before 2207. The biggest reason is that he hit .320 instead of his traditional .280-.290. -------------------- Everybody's so busy wanting to be down with the gang. "I'm conservative", "I'm liberal", "I'm conservative". Bull****! Be a f***ing person! Lis-ten! Let it swirl around your head. Then form your opinion. No normal, decent person is one thing, okay? -C. Rock |
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Oct 23 2007, 12:54 PM
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Posts: 4,345 From: Section 41 |
Platoon splits ... although given our pitching staff I'm not sure how much the vs. LHP stats matter
L-R
While clearly the whole teams was helped by playing in Denver, Matsui and Atkins are the 2 players who seemed to struggle the most away from home: H-A
-------------------- Everybody's so busy wanting to be down with the gang. "I'm conservative", "I'm liberal", "I'm conservative". Bull****! Be a f***ing person! Lis-ten! Let it swirl around your head. Then form your opinion. No normal, decent person is one thing, okay? -C. Rock |
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Oct 23 2007, 08:03 PM
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 PN23's replacement Posts: 1,629 From: Chicago via Newton |
Not sure where else to put this, but why is Drew starting game 1 in RF over Kielty? Francis has a fairly significant split differential (120 OPS points over his career), and Drew hasn't exactly handled lefties well this year. I suppose something can be said for the fact that Drew has had 10 career at bats against Francis, and is obviously a better defensive player than Kielty, but he was also a better defensive player than Kielty last series when Kielty started both games against Sabathia.
This seems to be a case of us having to trust the Red Sox baseball operations that they know what they're doing, and I certainly do trust them at this point. They obviously don't take any decision lightly. I just find it odd that they're going to be starting a 3rd lefty against Francis. Edit: Francis' career began 4 years ago, therefore the OPS split is his career split This post has been edited by tims4wins: Oct 23 2007, 08:09 PM -------------------- "Please don't tell me the most important thing a batter can do is to not make an out" - JavyVazquezIsSick in the nyyfans.com OFFICIAL ARod performance thread
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Oct 23 2007, 11:11 PM
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#13
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Posts: 4,345 From: Section 41 |
QUOTE (tims4wins @ Oct 23 2007, 09:03 PM) Not sure where else to put this, but why is Drew starting game 1 in RF over Kielty? Francis has a fairly significant split differential (120 OPS points over his career), and Drew hasn't exactly handled lefties well this year. I'm guessing they're looking at his AWAY L/R split, which is much less dramatic (see my Francis post above). -------------------- Everybody's so busy wanting to be down with the gang. "I'm conservative", "I'm liberal", "I'm conservative". Bull****! Be a f***ing person! Lis-ten! Let it swirl around your head. Then form your opinion. No normal, decent person is one thing, okay? -C. Rock |
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Oct 24 2007, 08:29 AM
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 did you know i worked for the red sox? Posts: 7,854 From: Watertown via Natick |
Jeff Francis From Enhanced Game Day
EGD has all but one of his 8 September and October starts, and missed just 7 pitches in these 7 starts. -- He's known for a classic 2-seamer that runs in on LHB and down, but you really only see that regularly at home. On the road, his average fastball break is indistinguishable from Beckett's. He will vary it continuously, however, to get action ranging from that to classic 2-seam. -- He has a cut fastball which he throws virtually as hard as his regular one, but with a break that more resembles his change-up. That this is a distinct pitch is very clear from the EGD data, but it is not generally regarded as such. -- He has a very unusual change-up, in that it breaks away from LHB rather than towards them. -- Big curve that's sweeping on the road and more 12-6 at home. He never throws it when he's behind in the count. Here's a summary of average velocity and break, with a start-by-start breakdown. You can see that he goes with what's working: his biggest-breaking curve was against the Phillies, and that's also the game he threw it most often. Also, compare the change on 9-23 (fewest thrown and worst) vs. 10-11 (most thrown and best). As always, BrkH is inches of break away from the same-handed batter, and BrkV is inches of break down, and both are relative to Josh Beckett's 4-seam fastball from ALCS game 1. Home games are in red. Summary
Here's a breakdown of pitches by count: By Count
And here are the results. W= Walk, B = Ball, Kc = called K, Sc = called strike, Ks = swinging K, Ks = swinging strike, F = foul. Ev/Fu = Even / Full count. [table=Results] All | W | HB | B | Kc | Sc | Ks | Ss | F | GO | FO | PO | LO | 1B | 2B | HR | Tot | Pct | Strike | Swing | Contact | BA | OBP | SA | FB | 5 | | 109 | 4 | 64 | 7 | 18 | 61 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 320 | 48% | 64% | 43% | 82% | .317 | .368 | .524 | Cutter | 1 | | 23 | | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 1 | | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 9% | 59% | 50% | 90% | .211 | .250 | .421 | Change | 5 | 1 | 51 | | 20 | 9 | 23 | 32 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 195 | 29% | 71% | 61% | 73% | .270 | .333 | .429 | Curve | 1 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 3 | | | 2 | | | 99 | 15% | 56% | 34% | 62% | .100 | .182 | .100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | RHB | W | HB | B | Kc | Sc | Ks | Ss | F | GO | FO | PO | LO | 1B | 2B | HR | Tot | Pct | Strike | Swing | Contact | BA | OBP | SA | FB | 4 | | 83 | 3 | 48 | 4 | 16 | 50 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 247 | 47% | 65% | 44% | 82% | .304 | .360 | .587 | Cutter | 1 | | 20 | | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 1 | | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 10% | 58% | 50% | 88% | .235 | .278 | .471 | Change | 4 | 1 | 43 | | 18 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 155 | 30% | 69% | 57% | 78% | .269 | .333 | .404 | Curve | 1 | 1 | 30 | 2 | 15 | 6 | | 8 | 3 | 2 | | | 2 | | | 70 | 13% | 54% | 30% | 71% | .133 | .235 | .133 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | LHB | W | HB | B | Kc | Sc | Ks | Ss | F | GO | FO | PO | LO | 1B | 2B | HR | Tot | Pct | Strike | Swing | Contact | BA | OBP | SA | FB | 1 | | 26 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | 6 | | | 73 | 49% | 63% | 40% | 83% | .353 | .389 | .353 | Cutter | | | 3 | | 1 | | | 2 | 2 | | | | | | | 8 | 5% | 63% | 50% | 100% | .000 | .000 | .000 | Change | 1 | | 8 | | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 3 | | 1 | 2 | | 1 | 40 | 27% | 78% | 73% | 59% | .273 | .333 | .545 | Curve | | | 12 | | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | | 1 | | | | | | 29 | 19% | 59% | 45% | 46% | .000 | .000 | .000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Ahead | W | HB | B | Kc | Sc | Ks | Ss | F | GO | FO | PO | LO | 1B | 2B | HR | Tot | Pct | Strike | Swing | Contact | BA | OBP | SA | FB | | | 31 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 2 | | 1 | 3 | | 1 | 71 | 42% | 56% | 48% | 76% | .222 | .222 | .389 | Cutter | | | 9 | | | 1 | | 1 | 1 | | | | | | | 12 | 7% | 25% | 25% | 67% | .000 | .000 | .000 | Change | | | 9 | | | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | | 3 | | 1 | 40 | 24% | 78% | 78% | 77% | .222 | .222 | .389 | Curve | | | 20 | 2 | | 10 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | | | 2 | | | 45 | 27% | 56% | 51% | 52% | .118 | .118 | .118 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Ev/Fu | W | HB | B | Kc | Sc | Ks | Ss | F | GO | FO | PO | LO | 1B | 2B | HR | Tot | Pct | Strike | Swing | Contact | BA | OBP | SA | FB | 3 | | 52 | 3 | 37 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | | 159 | 46% | 65% | 40% | 81% | .308 | .379 | .423 | Cutter | 1 | | 11 | | 2 | 1 | | 5 | 7 | | | | 2 | 1 | | 30 | 9% | 60% | 53% | 94% | .273 | .333 | .364 | Change | 4 | 1 | 26 | | 10 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 101 | 29% | 69% | 59% | 73% | .243 | .333 | .405 | Curve | 1 | 1 | 22 | | 19 | | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | | | | | | 54 | 16% | 56% | 20% | 82% | .000 | .400 | .000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Behind | W | HB | B | Kc | Sc | Ks | Ss | F | GO | FO | PO | LO | 1B | 2B | HR | Tot | Pct | Strike | Swing | Contact | BA | OBP | SA | FB | 2 | | 26 | | 22 | | 5 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 90 | 56% | 69% | 44% | 88% | .421 | .476 | .789 | Cutter | | | 3 | | 3 | | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | | 1 | | | 1 | 16 | 10% | 81% | 63% | 90% | .167 | .167 | .667 | Change | 1 | | 16 | | 10 | | 9 | 10 | 2 | | 2 | | 3 | 1 | | 54 | 34% | 69% | 50% | 67% | .500 | .556 | .625 | Curve | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | | | | | | | | |
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Oct 24 2007, 09:14 AM
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#15
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Posts: 4,345 From: Section 41 |
QUOTE (Eric Van @ Oct 24 2007, 09:29 AM) Jeff Francis From Enhanced Game Day -- He's known for a classic 2-seamer that runs in on LHB and down, but you really only see that regularly at home. On the road, his average fastball break is indistinguishable from Beckett's. He will vary it continuously, however, to get action ranging from that to classic 2-seam. -- He has a cut fastball which he throws virtually as hard as his regular one, but with a break that more resembles his change-up. That this is a distinct pitch is very clear from the EGD data, but it is not generally regarded as such. -- He has a very unusual change-up, in that it breaks away from LHB rather than towards them. -- Big curve that's sweeping on the road and more 12-6 at home. He never throws it when he's behind in the count. Eric - great stuff. So as was discussed in the other thread, it looks like they see different action on the breaking pitches up in Denver. Would you say his Coors Field curve resembles Beckett's curve? -------------------- Everybody's so busy wanting to be down with the gang. "I'm conservative", "I'm liberal", "I'm conservative". Bull****! Be a f***ing person! Lis-ten! Let it swirl around your head. Then form your opinion. No normal, decent person is one thing, okay? -C. Rock |
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Oct 24 2007, 10:03 AM
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#16
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Posts: 4,345 From: Section 41 |
A look at the COL bullpen. Corpas took over the closer's role from Fuentes, and both have thrived. After Corpas, the table is sorted by IP in Sept, which is why Morales is listed 2nd.
BULLPEN
Fuentes had a spectacular August and September (.457 OPS after the ASG), striking out 24% of the batters he faced and allowing 0 HR in September. But he walks a lot of guys. Corpas was great as the setup man and closer, but he's also susceptible to the long ball. Fuentes and Affeldt are the LHP. In SSS, Ortix is 1/13 vs Affeldt and 0/1 vs. Fuentes. Drew, however is 4/9 with 4 BB vs. Affeldt and 0/3 with a BB vs. Fuentes. -------------------- Everybody's so busy wanting to be down with the gang. "I'm conservative", "I'm liberal", "I'm conservative". Bull****! Be a f***ing person! Lis-ten! Let it swirl around your head. Then form your opinion. No normal, decent person is one thing, okay? -C. Rock |
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Oct 24 2007, 04:30 PM
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#17
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did you know i worked for the red sox? Posts: 7,854 From: Watertown via Natick |
QUOTE (behindthepen @ Oct 24 2007, 10:14 AM) Eric - great stuff. So as was discussed in the other thread, it looks like they see different action on the breaking pitches up in Denver. Would you say his Coors Field curve resembles Beckett's curve? Actually, his road curve is just like Beckett's curve, except it's 5 mph slower, and he has so little confidence of his command that he won't throw it 3-2, let alone when he's behind in the count. (The next expansion of these reports will be to compile number of pitches in and out of zone, and hence to separate swings into pitches chased out of zone vs. in zone, with hitting stats for each.) Note that compared to his FB, his curve gets 15" of break away and 13" of break down on the road, which becomes 12" and 10" at Coors. That's the Coors effect. He also converts 4-5" of rise or hop to 4-5" of ride-in when he's at home, and that appears to be an adjustment he makes. His average release point at home is about 2" higher and 2" further towards 1B (and yes, that's unquestionably significant and not random). Comparison of the pitchers: Comparison
By the way, there's some suggestion in the data that Francis might throw a few 4-seamers per game, but I'll have to look at some other pitchers before reaching that conclusion. (There is also the possibility that the reports of him relying on a 2-seamer are in error, and that what I've identified as his FB is a 4-seamer and his cutter is actually just a 2-seamer. In fact, the latter would certainly be my interpretation if I hadn't read that he's a 2-seam guy.) This post has been edited by Eric Van: Oct 24 2007, 04:31 PM |
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Oct 24 2007, 11:14 PM
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#18
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 SoSH Member Posts: 14,363 |
 Here is the visual breakdown of Beckett tonight. I'll post one for all of our starters. |
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Oct 25 2007, 09:58 AM
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#19
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 Vacationland Posts: 12,948 From: Row 14 |
The Rockies are in serious trouble tonight. They must, MUST hit Schilling. Jimenez is not the kind of pitcher that succeeds against the Sox. He averages around 5 1/3 IP a start against the NL, it is only going to get worse with a DH especially with a patient team like the Red Sox. He also has a tendency to give up runs in the first inning. His bullpen threw 93 pitches last night. Even with the rest, the Rockies cannot afford to have another quick outing from their starter. Unfortunately thats what Jimenez does.
-------------------- The godless say to themselves:
'Let us lie in wait for the virtuous man, since he annoys us and opposes our way of life, reproaches us for our breaches of the law and accuses us of playing false to our upbringing.' - Wisdom 2:12 "Back in the day, being offended was a daily occurence in P&G, but no one bitched about it. And if they did, they were hounded mercilessly. Hell, that's what P&G is for." - Mr. Weebles http://bookof2010.wordpress.com - Enjoy |
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Oct 25 2007, 10:40 AM
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#20
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Posts: 4,345 From: Section 41 |
QUOTE (TomRicardo @ Oct 25 2007, 10:58 AM) The Rockies are in serious trouble tonight. They must, MUST hit Schilling. Jimenez is not the kind of pitcher that succeeds against the Sox. He averages around 5 1/3 IP a start against the NL, it is only going to get worse with a DH especially with a patient team like the Red Sox. He also has a tendency to give up runs in the first inning. His bullpen threw 93 pitches last night. Even with the rest, the Rockies cannot afford to have another quick outing from their starter. Unfortunately thats what Jimenez does. Good read TR. They shouldn't be feeling good about this kid coming on the mound. He came up in July so faced no AL teams. He's very intriguing because his batting average against is so low, and he pitched great at Coors Field. But walking 10% of the batters you face, and 14% OF LHB, is going to cause you problems. Add to that that when men are on base, his HR%PA goes up to 4%. He averaged 89 pitches per start. He's about average for GB at 46%. ubaldo
-------------------- Everybody's so busy wanting to be down with the gang. "I'm conservative", "I'm liberal", "I'm conservative". Bull****! Be a f***ing person! Lis-ten! Let it swirl around your head. Then form your opinion. No normal, decent person is one thing, okay? -C. Rock |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 9th February 2010 - 12:10 PM |