GAME 7: IT IS ON! Options

[SoxFanSince57]

I thought that it would be a reasonable idea to start a thread that focuses on game 7.

While I 'feel' that Dice-K will out perform Westbrook tomorrow, I think that the Sox will really limit who gets the ball when Dice-K comes out.

My take on Tito's bullpen usage will be limited to MDC, Timlin, Okajima, Beckett and Papelbon. I really don't see Tito going with Lester or Wake or anyone else for that matter.

[RedOctober3829]

I thought that it would be a reasonable idea to start a thread that focuses on game 7.

While I 'feel' that Dice-K will out perform Westbrook tomorrow, I think that the Sox will really limit who gets the ball when Dice-K comes out.

My take on Tito's bullpen usage will be limited to MDC, Timlin, Okajima, Beckett and Papelbon. I really don't see Tito going with Lester or Wake or anyone else for that matter.

If all goes well tonight, you should see Dice-K for 4 innings, Beckett for 2, a combination of Okajima, Timlin, and Declarmen for 2 innings, and Paps for the 8th and 9th since he is well rested. But if Dice-K shows any early signs that he doesn't have it, you might see Beckett earlier in the game. I can't wait for 8:23 pm to get here.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

I thought that it would be a reasonable idea to start a thread that focuses on game 7.

While I 'feel' that Dice-K will out perform Westbrook tomorrow, I think that the Sox will really limit who gets the ball when Dice-K comes out.

My take on Tito's bullpen usage will be limited to MDC, Timlin, Okajima, Beckett and Papelbon. I really don't see Tito going with Lester or Wake or anyone else for that matter.

From your lips to God's (and Terry's) ears. Both Lester and Wake seem like risky options out of the pen - Lester due to the long warm-up and lack of experience coming into the middle of big situations, and Wake because they'd either have to pull Varitek for Mirabelli or risk the passed balls.

I was livid when I saw Oki warming tonight. So glad they didn't see the need to use him - maybe he was just getting some throwing in?

[JohntheBaptist]

One thing I haven't read/ heard discussed- if Westbrook struggles early, who are we more likely to see behind him- Byrd or Sabathia? I would imagine it has a lot to do with matchups, but it's tough. Sabathia is obviously the better pitcher, but he seems to have hit a wall physically, has less rest, and was bad in this series, where Byrd was excellent. Then again, Sabathia could sort of just rare back and hold us for two innings where Byrd is a risk of those balls he allows in play to start dropping a lot.

Should be interesting to see where they go with their bullpen tomorrow should they need it. The one small downside tonight was letting Laffey eat up a few innings and saving the back of their bullpen (of course Borowski got smacked around a little).

I think the main idea is to be really proactive in yanking Daisuke before he can wear down/ getting beat multiple times through the order. Scoring first and often would obviously really make things a lot easier all over.

This post has been edited by JohntheBaptist: Oct 21 2007, 01:04 AM

[syoo8]

Someone named "Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt" PM-ed me to tell me the following:

I sent this out to a couple of others, but you seem to be actually awake still so I figured I'd try one more time. I was speaking with Kevin Millar's mom earlier (I know her a little) and she told me Theo and JH called Kevin earlier today to say that, if we were to win Game 6 (we did, by the way), the Sox would be flying Millar and Dave Roberts in for Game 7. They'll be throwing out the first pitch(es).

Spread the word.

As for Westbrook, his last 3 starts:

9/29, vs. KC: 6.1 - 7 - 3 - 1 - 5, 100 (on 5 days rest)

10/7, vs. NYY: 5.0 - 9 - 6 - 9 - 1, 79 (on 6 days rest)

10/15, vs. BOS: 6.2 - 7 - 2 - 3 - 2, 104 (on 7 days rest)

10/21, vs. BOS: ?? (on 5 days rest)

With 5 days rest in 2007, Westbrook made 4 appearances:
20 IP, 20 H, 15 ER, 7 BB, 14 K, 6.75 ERA

[Mike in CT]

I just have a really good feeling about Matsuzaka tomorrow. Why?

1. J.D. Drew/Lugo - it just feels like it's time for all the whipping boys to step up and deliver at the biggest time of the season. Matsuzaka is next in line.

2. Seeing that video of him sitting alone in front of his locker after Game 3. I don't know why, but when I saw it, I thought, "he's going to do something special tomorrow night"


While everyone is thinking about how we can piece it together with the bullpen, I just have a feeling Matsuzaka is going to come up huge with 7 or 8 dominant innings, and hand it off to Papelbon.

We'll see.

[gammoseditor]

While everyone is thinking about how we can piece it together with the bullpen, I just have a feeling Matsuzaka is going to come up huge with 7 or 8 dominant innings, and hand it off to Papelbon.

I think its going to be really for Matsuzaka to go deep into this game tomorrow simply because hes going to have a very short leash. If he pitches 4 scoreless and has a couple of guys on with one out in the fifth and its close I could see us going to the bullpen. Assuming Beckett and the front end of the bullpen of okajima, timlin, and paps are all available you can piece together 5 innings pretty easily with them, and they've proven far more than Daisuke.

On the other hand, if there happens to be a decent sized lead I think the leash grows.

[ScubaSteveAvery]

I'm in the camp of I honestly believe Daisuke will pull something magical tomorrow night. I cannot explain why, but it just seems like he knows he's better than this no matter what has happened this season. I know that he has been through a lot this season, and one can argue too much. But it just sounds like after game 3 he was searching deep inside himself to find some way to come through. Now that he is on quite possibly the biggest stage of his life, it would seem fitting for the hero of Japan to become the hero of Boston.

Also, for some reason, I cannot see Jake Westbrook calming the storm of this offense. The confidence in the Sox clubhouse has to be pretty good right now. But then again, anything can happen in game seven. But dang, just getting there shows how confident this team is. Its time to put this away and move on to another World Series. One inning at a time, one minute at a time, one pitch at a time. DO IT!

The key match up I see tomorrow is Daisuke vs. Sizemore. Grady sparks Cleveland's offense and it seem that when he is shut down, the rest of the offense just cannot get the runs they need. Kind of like when Pedroia was struggling, we had trouble scoring, but he's been hot these last two games and the offense is on a roll. Another thing Daisuke needs to do is mix up his pitches. This Indians team is a group of fastball hitters that sit and wait until you have to throw them the fastball.

The key match up for Westbrook is against J.D. Drew. As evidenced by tonight, when Drew swings the bat well, our offense becomes deadly. And this is with Ortiz and Manny having both quiet nights at the plate. If Drew can hit and get on, the dynamics of our offense changes.

Edit: Grammer and additions

This post has been edited by Bosox33: Oct 21 2007, 01:59 AM

[twoBshorty]

Someone named "Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt" PM-ed me to tell me the following:

Confirmed by Projo, though no mention of Roberts in the article:

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/projo_....18f0daab0.html

I'm a little surprised this is allowed.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Confirmed by Projo, though no mention of Roberts in the article:

I am surprised Millar and Roberts, who play for other teams, would want to inject themselves into this series.

[5belongstoGeorge]

Millar and Roberts both have a soul, hence I suspect they would most certainly be honored to throw out the first pitch.

[sheamonu]

I have a good feeling about Dice-K as well, but that really means nothing in reality. The roster of pitchers as set out in Since 57's post is spot on with one added twist - I would have both Dice and Lester warm up as if they are the starter - you do not want to go to Beckett before the fifth and Lester, while he had a good stretch of innings the other night, isn't used to getting heated up quick in the pen. If you have him ready for a quick hook in the 2nd or 3rd (God forbid) you can avoid running Beckett out there too soon.

I have to believe Cleveland's first option out of the pen is Byrd. He's been their best pitcher in the postseason. I also don't think there is a chance in hell we see Borowski today after what he did last night - bad in the sense that we don't see Borowski, who is our secret weapon. Good in the sense that we probably don't see Betancourt in the middle innings, as they will have to hold him back to close. Sabathia is available, but if you were Wedge would you go to him first? McCarver raised the possibility of Carmona being available, but he also referred to "J.D." Drew as "David John"...

[behindthepen]

x-posting from the analyis thread ...

Westbrook had a tough beginning of the season, with a 7+ ERA though April and May, before he went down to a strained oblique (replaced in the rotation, incidentally, by Carmona). since coming back in June, he's become the regular old Jake Westbrook, an innings-eater at just below league average ERA.

In 6 regular season career starts vs. BOS, he's 3-2, 33.2 IP, 4.81 era. In his start this year at the Jake, the first 5 batters reached, and 4 scored, and that was enough for Jon Lester.

He's a GB pitcher; however, this season he's only at 54% vs. a 60% career average. In his Game 3 start, he had 3 GIDP's (1st, 2nd and 6th innings), plus Papi ran into Manny's grounder in the 4th. He wiggled out of a no-outs-bases-loaded jam in the 2nd.

jw

	2007
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	K%PA	BB%PA	HR%PA
2007	.276	.343	.386	.729	.307	14.4%	8.5%	2.0%
2005-2007	.279	.299	.396	.695	.307	15.0%	7.7%	2.2%
vs RHB	.263	.313	.356	.669	.295	13.5%	6.3%	1.3%
vs LHB	.288	.368	.415	.783	.320	15.1%	10.4%	2.6%
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	K%PA	BB%PA	HR%PA
Home	.269	.369	.383	.752	.345	15.2%	9.7%	1.4%
Bases Empty	.261	.320	.360	.681	.301	16.0%	7.2%	1.7%
Men On Base	.295	.371	.422	.794	.316	12.2%	10.1%	2.4%
Innings 1-3	.291	.371	.389	.761	.346	18.3%	10.4%	1.9%

-decent L/R platoon split. note that he walked LHB in over 10% of PA this season.
-struggles with men on base
-most of the damage this season was done in innings 1, 2 and 4.
-his road #s were .250/.310/.391, but given that is was only 11 starts in 2007, and his career road OPS is .753, that's probably a SSS.

Inside Edge lists him as a FB/Change/Slider pitcher, with a curve he mixes in occasionally.
BA against Change .219; Slider .190; both pitches that he tries to get hitters to chase.

[bakahump]

I just have a really good feeling about Matsuzaka tomorrow. Why?

1. J.D. Drew/Lugo - it just feels like it's time for all the whipping boys to step up and deliver at the biggest time of the season. Matsuzaka is next in line.

2. Seeing that video of him sitting alone in front of his locker after Game 3. I don't know why, but when I saw it, I thought, "he's going to do something special tomorrow night"
While everyone is thinking about how we can piece it together with the bullpen, I just have a feeling Matsuzaka is going to come up huge with 7 or 8 dominant innings, and hand it off to Papelbon.

We'll see.

I agree.

And to the Point ....why was everyone so "down" on DiceK? It seemed like many werent down because of his game....which wasnt great but not terrible (we should win a game the opponent scores 4). They where more down that he had "cracked". They couldnt believe he would stare at his locker for 30 minutes.
I liked it. I respected it. He looked inward and tried to figure out what went wrong and how he could improve. I guess the media being the media, a few broken chairs, a punched water cooler and some qoutes bitching about a non existent offense would have been better.

Dice K is ready and will have a big game tonight.

[possumbait]

My fantasy is that Dice-K wakes up this morning and thinks "shit, I have the stuff to miss bats, so I am not going to nibble so much."

[Todd Benzinger]

Stumbled on a very interesting scouting report from inside edge on the two SPs for this game.

Two counter-intuitive nuggets:

1) Dice-K has been hit by lefties on his offspeed stuff, not his FB.

2) The Sox would be scouted to--and have actually--handled Westbrook's FB when he keeps it down, and had more trouble with it up.

In addition to his bad long rest numbers, (thanks syoo8) Westbrook has been terrible in two career starts at fenway (1.000+ OPSA in 10.2 IP) and of course has been worse on the road career and moreso in 07. I just posted the details in the analysis thread...

[glennhoffmania]

It would be very nice if they can get out to a quick lead and not have to use Beckett. Cleveland looks very tight, unlike they were in game 3. And I really hope Fox will let us watch the Millar/Roberts first pitch.

[Zupcic Fan]

I'd love to see that first pitch thing also---but I'm afraid that Fox will only let us see it if Millar is sitting in the stands either 1) looking very tense, or 2) holding an idiotic sign.

I have no feeling about tonight's game. It won't surprise me if Dice comes up big, and it won't surprise me if he gives up 4 runs within the first few innings. I think it would surprise me, though, if the Sox don't hit Westbrook.

One more thing, though: I hope that Farrell gives Dice the same advice that the Cleveland pitching coach gave Fausto. Work the middle of the plate and stop nibbling. He just can't seem to fool anyone with all those breaking pitches, so all his waste pitches ever accomplish is to 1) get the hitter into a hitter's count, and 2) elevate his pitch count.

This post has been edited by Zupcic Fan: Oct 21 2007, 08:50 AM

[budguy147]

McCarver raised the possibility of Carmona being available, but he also referred to "J.D." Drew as "David John"...

David Jonathan Drew is his name. I guess McCarver was being very formal everyone calls him JD.

I am looking forward to the excitement in the ballpark for the first pitch. Hopefully Dice-K can feed off of it and spin a gem.

[Todd Benzinger]

He just can't seem to fool anyone with all those breaking pitches, so all his waste pitches ever accomplish is to 1) get the hitter into a hitter's count, and 2) elevate his pitch count.

And, apparently, get him wacked around by LHH.

And yet during his earlier meltdowns, we were all blaming Tek for not mixing it up enough.

I love Dice-K and I'd be thrilled to get 6 solid IP out of him... But I'm putting my eggs in the hit Westbrook/ Tito's quick hook basket.

This post has been edited by Todd Benzinger: Oct 21 2007, 09:00 AM