Impact of the "new" postseason schedule on rotations/rosters Options

[DeltaForce]

The new playoff schedule was probably discussed somewhat at the time it was announced, but if it was, I think it’s worth revisiting now.

This year’s postseason schedule has more off-days than in the past, which could make even more dramatic the split between pitching staffs “built for the regular season” (deep staffs with the ability to keep the team in games, cover for injuries, etc.) and pitching staffs “built for the post-season” (dominance at the top of the rotation and at the back end of the pen).

First, here’s the AL playoff schedule:

ALDS series “A”: 10/4, 10/5, 10/7, 10/8, 10/10
ALDS series “B”: 10/3, 10/5, 10/7, 10/8, 10/10
ALCS: 10/12, 10/13, 10/15, 10/16, 10/18, 10/20, 10/21.

(I don't know if it's a formal rule, but over the past five years or so, the "series B" format has gone to the series that doesn't involve the wild card.)

The upshot of this schedule is that there’s little need for even a fourth starter anymore. This is particularly true for “ALDS B,” which is set up for a three-man rotation with everyone on regular rest. Even for the ALCS, you could make it through with 3 starters IF you’re willing to have one of them pitch on short rest in game 4. Also, with all the off-days, there should never be a game where a reliever is unavailable — no team plays three days in a row anymore. (And because of all of this, I can’t see why a team would carry more than 10 pitchers on their postseason roster; though the Sox will carry 11, that’s largely because they only have 14 viable position players.)

This new schedule seems like a bad development in theory, in that it makes postseason success even more unrelated to regular season success than it was in the past. In practice, . . . who knows?

In some ways, the Sox are built for the postseason: Beckett and Dice-K are potentially dominant, and Papelbon/Okajima are as good a 1-2 bullpen punch as anyone. On the other hand, it seems to me that the Sox’ real advantage over most teams is their depth: other teams have a starter or two that can dominate, but really only Anaheim has a top four that is comparable to the Sox’s top four.

It would seem to me that the Sox and Anaheim are hurt (relatively speaking) by this new format. In the Sox’ case, taking away a start from a #4 (presumably Wakefield) and giving it to a #2 (Daisuke) is an upgrade, but nowhere near the upgrade that, say, a team like Cleveland would have. And the Cleveland thing is significant, because Cleveland is probably Boston’s most likely first-round opponent. (I still think NY is getting the wild card.) Sabathia/Carmona/Westbrook/Sabathia/Carmona is a formidable first-round rotation, to put it mildly.

Anyway, I can’t say that I have some huge overriding point here; I guess that, with the question of playoff rosters looming, I thought this post could possible kick off some discussion over optimal playoff rosters for the Red Sox and other contenders. At the very least, it could serve to remind some people of something I had forgotten — that, with the change in postseason schedule, there’s even less need for a brigade of competent pitchers and a greater need for a small group of stoppers.

This post has been edited by DeltaForce: Aug 26 2007, 10:29 PM

[Rasputin]

I think the schedule was designed to have more games pitched by the star pitchers and that's something I can understand.

But think of it this way, the Sox could go through a seven game LCS using nobody but Becket, Dice-K, Schilling, Papelbon, Okajima, Gagne, and Delcarmen and have precisely one game pitched with less than normal rest. I don't really think it will happen but it could and I cannot see that as a bad thing.

Take your Sabathia/Carmona/Westbrook/Sabathia/Carmona and match it up against Beckett/DiceK/Schilling/Beckett/DiceK...who do you like? I still like us.

I think this schedule sets up some phenomenal games in the AL playoffs.

[Tudor Fever]

The World Series is still the 2-3-2 format with single days off for travel, so staff depth will still be relatively meaningful in that round. Otherwise, though, we won't see anything like the 2004 ALCS war of attrition, which as a fan I kind of regret.

[DeltaForce]

Take your Sabathia/Carmona/Westbrook/Sabathia/Carmona and match it up against Beckett/DiceK/Schilling/Beckett/DiceK...who do you like? I still like us.

Yep, I like the Sox' rotation too, even its three-man version. I just think that there'd be an even bigger pitching advantage if you replaced a Carmona start with a Byrd start and replaced a Dice-K start with a Wakefield start.

The rotation is "top-heavy" enough to win in the playoffs, but IMO, the stastical dominance of the pitching staff this year is principally due to its consistency --- namely, to the fact that guys like Wakefield, Tavarez, Timlin, Delcarmen, Snyder, etc., are far better than their counterparts on most other teams. This postseason schedule carves into some (but not all) of that advantage.

[mr guido]

It would be remarkable if Wakefield wins 20+ games and then is bumped into the bullpen.

But I can see the argument that this kind of schedule will lead to a better level of play. Specifically, if the Sox end up playing Anaheim or Seattle, it mitigates the effect of repeatedly criss-crossing the country. In general, it helps to ensure that teams are playing at their best (and perhaps prevents 83 win teams from winning it all, like we saw in 2006).

No more do-or-die Kent Mercker starts in the playoffs, I guess.

One other major impact is that teams don't need to work as hard to set their rotation up for the playoffs. Last year the Yankees played their final game on Oct 1 and started the playoffs on Oct 3. This year the Indians could conceivably wrap up the season on Sept 30 and start playoffs on Oct 4.

[epraz]

No more do-or-die Kent Mercker starts in the playoffs, I guess.

But still some do-or-die put-Tom-Gordon-in-for-the-eighth-innings.

[DeltaForce]

No more do-or-die Kent Mercker starts in the playoffs, I guess.

Yeah, but see, this year the Red Sox don't have a Kent Mercker. In terms of VORP, they have the 7th (Beckett), 9th (Daisuke), 22nd (Wakefield) and 29th (Schilling) ranked starters in the AL. No other team is as strong 1 through 4. The change in schedule assures that the Red Sox won't be facing some other team's Kent Mercker.

Of course, the real Kent Mercker pitched really well in his do-or-die game, so there you go....

This post has been edited by DeltaForce: Aug 27 2007, 02:29 AM

[Harry Hooper]

Who had the great line about how every major change in MLB seems to favor Selig's Milwaukee Brewers. This revision in playoff format seems like a real boon to smaller-budget clubs like the Brewers and Twins with a couple of top starters. It lessens the value of the roster depth for teams like the Yanks, Sox, and Angels.

Speaking of the Twins, this new playoff format increases the premium in talent and $ GMs should be willing to pay to get Santana on the club.

[Clears Cleaver]

the other thing this new schedule does is not reward those teams who have made the playoffs early and have their rotations set for the playoffs because the first playoff game would be at the earliest three days after the end fo the regular season. So, you could pitch your ace on Sunday to clinch a playoff spot and still have him pitch games 2 and 5 if neccessary.

[Tudor Fever]

This will also have a big impact on the bullpens, favoring the clubs with one or two excellent relief aces and not rewarding bullpen depth as much. In this regard, the new format appears to have a neutral impact on the Sox, since their top 2 guys are about as good as their next 2 or 3 guys are relative to their counterparts on other teams. It seems to help the Yankees, who have a bigger dropoff from their top 2 (Fruit Bat and Joba) than the other teams do.

I guess the chances of someone like Curt Leskanic needing to come up huge are pretty remote.

[JimD]

Having depth in the rotation and bullpen can still pay dividends if weather becomes a factor and games are postponed.

[The Filthy One]

Having depth in the rotation and bullpen can still pay dividends if weather becomes a factor and games are postponed.

Which is really the only reason Curt Leskanic had to come up big in the 04 ALCS (That and the spectacular shit storm that was Game 3). That series was pretty unique, and shouldn't indicate anything in terms of how to construct a bullpen for this year's post season.

[Pumpsie]

If the playoffs were to start next week, Wakefield would be the third starter and not Schilling. Unless their effectiveness changes (that is, Wake goes into a slump and Schilling starts looking better) this may well be what ends up happening. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Schilling will be the 3rd pitcher. I think that will be decided by what happens from here on out AND the weather during the postseason. I don't think that Wakefield is especially effective in cold weather.

[Fratboy]

If the playoffs were to start next week, Wakefield would be the third starter and not Schilling. Unless their effectiveness changes (that is, Wake goes into a slump and Schilling starts looking better) this may well be what ends up happening. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Schilling will be the 3rd pitcher.

I can just picture Schilling sitting in Francona's office and having him be told that he's the long man for the series, can you?

You're kidding, right?

Schilling for nearly all of his career, has been Clutchy McClutchness in the playoffs. You're gonna sit him down for WAKEFIELD?!?!?! I want to say, "let's get to the playoffs first and worry about this crap later," but the only way I can imagine Wake starting a playoff game is if there's an injury or postponements due to weather and junk like that.

[DeltaForce]

If the playoffs were to start next week, Wakefield would be the third starter and not Schilling. Unless their effectiveness changes (that is, Wake goes into a slump and Schilling starts looking better) this may well be what ends up happening. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Schilling will be the 3rd pitcher. I think that will be decided by what happens from here on out AND the weather during the postseason. I don't think that Wakefield is especially effective in cold weather.

I love Wakefield, and he has certainly pitched well enough to be in the playoff rotation, but there's no way I'd want Schilling to sit unless he is injured or there's overwhelming evidence that he can't be effective. He managed to win two postseason starts while pitching on one leg.

As a practical matter, a team will probably need four starters to win it all, given both a couple of quirks in the schedule and the fact that -- as Tudor noted -- the World Series format is still the traditional 2 on / 1 off / 3 on / 1 off / 2 on format. But looking at the format, there's no question that the fourth starter could be relegated to more of a "spot starting" role. A team that is in ALDS "series B" could do:

10/3 - #1 starter
10/5 - #2
10/7 - #3
10/8 - #1 (on 4 days rest)
10/10 - #2 (on 4 days rest)

ALCS
10/12 - #4 (spot start) or #3 (on 4 days rest)
10/13 - #1 (on 4 days rest)
10/15 - #2 (on 4 days rest)
10/16 - #3 (on 4 days rest) or #4 (spot start)
10/18 - #1 (on 4 days rest)
10/20 - #2 (on 4 days rest)
10/21 - #3 (on 4 days rest or 8 days rest)

WS
10/24 - #1 (on 5 days rest)
10/25 - #2 (on 5 days rest)
10/27 - #3 (on 5 days rest)
10/28 - #4 (spot start)
10/29 - #1 (on 4 days rest)
10/31 - #2 (on 5 days test)
11/1 - #3 (on 4 days rest)

The fourth starter will likely be needed at some point. And he'll likely be needed before the World Series unless a manager wanted to bring back the #1 on short rest for game 4 of the ALCS.

[Paradigm]

The World Series is still the 2-3-2 format with single days off for travel, so staff depth will still be relatively meaningful in that round. Otherwise, though, we won't see anything like the 2004 ALCS war of attrition, which as a fan I kind of regret.

Me too, though really, during playoff time, I doubt I'll be saying "this is great, but it would be better with fewer off days."

But man, that series was epic, and the schedule had a lot to do with it.

[Noah]

First, here’s the AL playoff schedule:

ALDS series “A”: 10/4, 10/5, 10/7, 10/8, 10/10
ALDS series “B”: 10/3, 10/5, 10/7, 10/8, 10/10
ALCS: 10/12, 10/13, 10/15, 10/16, 10/18, 10/20, 10/21.

(I don't know if it's a formal rule, but over the past five years or so, the "series B" format has gone to the series that doesn't involve the wild card.)

So The "A" series still necessitates a 4th starter, unless you want someone pitching on short rest, which I can't imagine the Red Sox doing in the first round.

And if the "A" series does indeed go to the wild card team, then in all likelihood, that's our series unless the Yanks sneak in. This is especially good if the Mariners end up as the WC, because it more exposes their lack of starters.

[OneOfTheosMinion...]

I can just picture Schilling sitting in Francona's office and having him be told that he's the long man for the series, can you?

You're kidding, right?

Schilling for nearly all of his career, has been Clutchy McClutchness in the playoffs. You're gonna sit him down for WAKEFIELD?!?!?! I want to say, "let's get to the playoffs first and worry about this crap later," but the only way I can imagine Wake starting a playoff game is if there's an injury or postponements due to weather and junk like that.

Too bad there isn't a dome team in the AL playoffs...that would probably mean a game one start for Wake. Damn you, Seattle, for moving to Safeco!

[DeltaForce]

So The "A" series still necessitates a 4th starter, unless you want someone pitching on short rest, which I can't imagine the Red Sox doing in the first round.

And if the "A" series does indeed go to the wild card team, then in all likelihood, that's our series unless the Yanks sneak in. This is especially good if the Mariners end up as the WC, because it more exposes their lack of starters.

I just can't imagine Seattle winning the WC. They're only two games ahead of the Yankees, who appear to have a much easier schedule going forward. Despite how they've played over the past week, I still think the Yanks are the clear favorite for the WC, with the Detroit/Cleveland loser being the next-most-likely.

As for whether teams in the "A" series would go with four starters, it is an interesting question. I agree that the Sox would --- there's not much of a drop-off in quality between Daisuke and Wakefield, particularly if we're talking about Daisuke on short rest. I would imagine that many teams would go with three starters, however, particularly if there is a major gap between the #2 and #4 starter. For example, I think Cleveland may go with three. New York could go with three (if they feel that Pettitte could handle the load). Anaheim would likely go with four because they're deep. Detroit's a little more unlikely because no one has emerged as an obvious #2 at this point.

[bosox79]

Except the Mariners are 3 games ahead, including 4 in the ever important loss column.