Let's Talk About Manny Ramirez Options

[cabrera era]

Okay. So obviously the Manny/Papi combo hasn't given us what we need this year, and thus our offense, or lack thereof, has cost us some games.

I'm giving Papi a pass because of the miniscus injury.

Manny OTOH, doesn't really have an excuse. Could this finally be the beginning of the decline?

More importantly..

1) Do you want to see Manny Ramirez in a Red Sox uniform past this year @ 20M in '08, '09, '10 and beyond? Would you be willing to give him up for 50 cents on the dollar in the offseason?

2) If your answer to #1 is to get rid of Manny, then what do you propose we do about replacing him?

I say all of this as a huge Manny guy. I'm not exactly sure what it is out there that we could conceivably get for him, and/or how much the FO is willing to spend in the A-Rod sweepstakes, etc.

[tailwind]

I'm not willing to dump him or trade for 50 cents on the dollar when there's only a one year obligation left, 20 million or not.

This is putting any and all logical statistical analysis aside, but would any of us really be surprised if he rebounded to .310/35/120 next year? I wouldn't, and when you consider the fact that a quality replacement will likely cost us Buchholz (and a plethora of other young talent,) Manny doesn't look quite so bad for '08. Even if he is really in decline, I'm willing to wait out the contract to give the front office the most possible time for finding the player to take his place.

[irinmike]

Manny will get his hits, even though it didn't happen in the ninth today, and will make his mental mistakes. However what he brings to the RS is still a considerable advantage. However I believe he has one more year after this in a Red Sox uniform.

[Paul M]

1. At this point he's only about $3-$5 million overpriced, and like was said, it's only one year.

2. I do think we'll see another series of rumors and the Sox will look to trade him and probably keep him when no team gives them the two key young pieces they seek in any deal. But it's not the off-season without a Manny trade demand and a month of speculation.

That said, I wouldn't want to be the team that guarantees both of the option years which is what Manny as a 10-5 guy would demand. Old player skills and declining power and it's most pronounced vs. righties -- < 800 OPS and well below 550 slugging.

I always felt they could use the money in other places but I'm not as sure now. While I think this is the player he'll be and I don't see the rebound, barring some really crazy series of events, I'd be surprised to see him gone.

(But, he does need to perform better for us at the end of games, now, or we're cooked).

[DJnVa]

With the caveat that a lot of things can change between now and then, I believe we'll see either Manny or Arod on this team next season. If Arod stays in NY or goes somewhere else, Manny stays for that final year. If somehow the Sox decide to go after Rodriguez and are able to get him, I think it will be in conjunction with a Manny deal. Where? Who knows, that depends on other moves.

[cabrera era]

(But, he does need to perform better for us at the end of games, now, or we're cooked).

People were saying in the game threads today about how Manny never really has been good towards the end of games in his career. I don't know if anyone has the numbers to support that argument?

I remember him winning us a game @ Toronto this year with a late homer. That's all I can remember this year..

[missinpedro]

It sucks that Manny may no longer be a 1.000 OPS guy, but he is a 900 guy and there only are three ways to replace someone like him. The first is a trade, but that requires giving up a shitload of talent to get someone that productive. The second is free agency, A-Rod will be there, but besides him, there will be no one else capable of replacing that type of production. The third way is developing someone, we'd all like that, but none of our young hitters are anywhere near there.

Thus, barring a good option in FA, there's not really anyway to replace Manny. One crazy thought that probably wouldn't work, but I'm throwing out there anyways. Any chance that Manny could play first? You get his bad D out of LF, move Youks over to 3rd and upgrade LF to someone like Dye. Just a thought, it probably wouldn't work, but would it be possible?

[OilCanShotTupac]

The game is much faster in the infield. Much of what a 1B does is routine, but even a 1B has to make split-second decisions re: what base to throw to, charging bunts, deciding whether to cover the bag or pursue a grounder (a favorite KFK mistake), etc.

I don't think Manny's got the focus to be an infielder.

This post has been edited by OilCanShotTupac: Aug 15 2007, 05:15 PM

[Paul M]

I just think Manny at first would take too long to work as a transition. If Sheffield couldn't, I doubt Manny can, and Sheffield has some actual infield experience. Not a bad idea, but I don't see it.

The decline is real from what I can tell in my analysis, and sometimes trading a year early is better than a year late. A few deals make some sense in fantasy terms, but I agree that it's doubtful we'd see it in practice. No trade or FA move, other than Arod, is a 1-for-1 match, but getting a 3B and a LF for example that are on the way up in their careers at least avoids 2009 from being potentially painful.

[tailwind]

A lot of people are saying that if we sign A-Rod, Manny's expendable. Is that really the case?

Don't you think the front-office would jump at the chance to have a 2008 lineup that goes (for example) Ramirez-Ortiz-Rodriguez as the 3-4-5 guys? I certainly would be giddy like a schoolgirl over that.

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

According to B-R's close and late stat, Manny is hitting .151/.274/.283 for an OPS of .557 in those situations this year. That's in 62 plate appearances. He's got 2 HR and only FOUR RBIs in those plate appearances.

SSS or not, those are absolutely terrible numbers and he's hurting the team in those spots.

Now, maybe this is all just a fluke: his BABIP in those situations is .158, well below his .313 he has for the entire year. But there's little doubt he's been a net negative in key spots this year.

For comparison, last year he had a 984 OPS in those situations. In 2005 it was 802. In 2004 it was 799.

I have been a Manny defender for years, but as we see him obvious in his decline phase it becomes increasingly difficult to ignore the atrocious fielding (particularly on the road), the mental errors, the egregious baserunning mistakes, and the lack of hitting in big situations. His sideshows were cute when he was routinely putting up 35 HR/125 RBI seasons; they're not so cute when he's currently at 19 and 75.

As mentioned in the game thread his WPA is a net negative this year (-0.21).

On the plus side, he's hustling more this year than in the past and has not caused any needless distractions like he's done each of the past few years. He even cheerfully went to the All Star Game.

[exGloucester]

---------------
Don't you think the front-office would jump at the chance to have a 2008 lineup that goes (for example) Ramirez-Ortiz-Rodriguez as the 3-4-5 guys? I certainly would be giddy like a schoolgirl over that.
---------------

If they want, and get, A-rod, and they try, and fail, to move Manny on acceptable terms, I would have to believe the front office would be OK with that trio for a year until Manny's guaranteed deal ran out.

Just based on age alone, the guy has to be entering a decline phase, but he's streaky as hell, and I wouldnt count him out based on the past few weeks of relatively cooling off. In other words, it would be suprise me not to see him go on a tear between now and the end of the year.

[Vermonter At Lar...]

That this thread exists is a sign of how spoiled we've gotten here since 2003. Seriously, Manny and Papi have carried the team offensively for five seasons together to the tune of producing 25% of the total runs scored during that half decade. I'm not sure if any tandem has ever done that, nor are we likely to see it again in our lifetimes.

This season the wheels have fallen somewhat off that applecart, and the offense has been poor, despite cumulative numbers that seem to indicate the contrary (see the Good Offense thread). Papi has been noticeably unpapi-like, but Manny really is still being Manny, slumps and grooves and all, but perhaps a little diminished.

Still, with all they have done, and still being the best offensive players on the team in spite of their problems, people's gut reactions seem to be, "What's wrong with Manny and Papi?" That's the wrong question. What indeed is wrong with the other position players.

[tailwind]

If they want, and get, A-rod, and they try, and fail, to move Manny on acceptable terms, I would have to believe the front office would be OK with that trio for a year until Manny's guaranteed deal ran out.

See, that's what I'm talking about. Why would their first move after signing A-Rod be an attempt to move Manny? I think they'd be ecstatic about that lineup (and for good reason) without ever thinking about dumping Manny and moving other talent to replace him.

To say they'd only be "OK" with that trio if they failed to move Manny is a stretch in my eyes. It's not like the money is a big issue with the potential contracts leaving (Clement and Lowell alone are likely 2/3rds of what we'd be paying A-Rod per year, and if Schilling isn't back, that's another huge chunk.)

[DJnVa]

See, that's what I'm talking about. Why would their first move after signing A-Rod be an attempt to move Manny? I think they'd be ecstatic about that lineup (and for good reason) without ever thinking about dumping Manny and moving other talent to replace him.

Because you'd have around $50 million tied up in those 2 guys. Not to mention that it would allow you to get something in return for Ramirez before he's a FA. I don't think anyone is saying that the FO wouldn't think it would be a good lineup with those three, I just think that, should Arod happen, they are going to want some more financial flexibility.

It's a bit odd to say they wouldn't ever think of moving Manny if they got Arod when that's precisely what would have happened had they got Arod previously. And yes, I realize Manny's contract isn't as burdensome now, but that also would make him (relatively) easier to deal.

[missinpedro]

I just think Manny at first would take too long to work as a transition. If Sheffield couldn't, I doubt Manny can, and Sheffield has some actual infield experience. Not a bad idea, but I don't see it.

The decline is real from what I can tell in my analysis, and sometimes trading a year early is better than a year late. A few deals make some sense in fantasy terms, but I agree that it's doubtful we'd see it in practice. No trade or FA move, other than Arod, is a 1-for-1 match, but getting a 3B and a LF for example that are on the way up in their careers at least avoids 2009 from being potentially painful.

If, and its a big if, Miguel Cabrera is on the market, he replaces Manny's bat. He does require unloading alot of talent on the farm, but of course I think he's worth it. One thing is that the $20 million dollar Manny would be a pure salary dump with no talent coming back, but you could probably subsidize him and get a good prospect or two. What if we rolled that prospect(s) into a mega-offer for Cabrera then use Manny's $ that would be coming off the books to sign Cabrera to an extension. It would take an awful lot to get him, but you would essentially be replacing Manny with a Manny quality bat for the next 10 years, so it would most likely be worth it.

Its probably not gonna happen, but I hope the Sox are at least considering it. I would give up an awful lot to make a deal for Cabrera happen. Its not contingent on trading Manny, though it would certainly be helpful if we could use prospects reaped in a Manny deal to build a package for Cabrera.

[BigJimEd]

I think it's a little premature to say Manny is obviously in a decline phase. he very well may be or it could just be one off year.

[Frisbetarian]

As a long time Manny defender I hate to do this, but if you were to look at Manny's contribution this season using the parameters MGL used in his "What is Manny Really Worth" article (link) it would not be pretty. Manny is currently producing offensively at about 25 runs above an average major league player per 603 plate appearances, park adjusted, using linear weights. An average major league left fielder is about 10 runs above an average player per 603 over the past 5 years, so Manny has contributed about 15 runs above an average major league left fielder offensively this season. Defensively, however, it is a different story. MGL had him at -15 runs when compared to an average left fielder (including his arm value) before the 2006 season. I think that is an optimistic number right now, and believe Manny has been progressively getting worse in left field, with this season being the worst of his career. I am not a big believer in partial year defensive metrics, but Manny's for 2007 are not pretty. Even if one were to consider Manny to still be a very conservative 15 runs below average defensively, it makes his contribution this season exactly that of an average major league left fielder, +15 runs offensively, and -15 runs defensively. And this does not take his base running into consideration.

I would be surprised if he were not shopped actively after this season.

[PedroKsBambino]

That this thread exists is a sign of how spoiled we've gotten here since 2003. Seriously, Manny and Papi have carried the team offensively for five seasons together to the tune of producing 25% of the total runs scored during that half decade. I'm not sure if any tandem has ever done that, nor are we likely to see it again in our lifetimes.

I agree with your basic point and also that, generally speaking, people have taken Manny and Papi for granted. That said, unless I'm missing an angle here guys hitting 3/4 producing 25% of a teams runs is not really surprising to me. They represent 22% of the players in the lineup and a slightly higher percentage of plate appearances because they hit high in the order. And generally, they are the two best (or at least two of the better) hitters. Am I wrong about that one? Not really that relevant to the larger point, but curious.

In terms of looking forward it's all about who you replace him with, isn't it? If you slot in (say) Andruw Jones in CF and move Coco to LF is that a net overall improvement? If you can get ARod and there's a salary issue, well, that's a good reason to move Manny (as it was on paper four years ago, too).

I do tend to be sympathetic to Fris' analysis of 2007 Manny, but I also think he's a pretty good bet to hit better over the last six weeks and thus, I'm not quite as down on him as he appears to be.

This post has been edited by PedroKsBambino: Aug 15 2007, 09:13 PM

[OilCanShotTupac]

The two views are not necessarily exclusive: A: Manny has begun the general decline to which all players are prone; B: Manny is a good bet to improve his production over the last weeks of the season.

One does not preclude the other. Just sayin'.