Remain calm, all is well Options

[86spike]

Looking at those schedules, I see maybe 2-3 games of advantage for us vis a vis NY. With the lead we have, we just need to split the 6 games against NY.

I guess this is where I diverge from the conventional thinking.

I will not be happy if the Sox do just enough to win the division. I will be happy if the Sox take a chunk out fo the MFYs to do everything we can to keep them out of the playoffs.

I'm quite confident that this team will win the division and if they somehow implode and don't, that they will at least take the wildcard. Honestly, I think the playoffs are in the bag.

What I want to see is this Red Sox team grabbing the chance to step on NY's throat in the 6 games we have with them to keep them out of October. I want nothing to do with that team in the playoffs.

[AusTexSoxFan]

Ok... I'm calming down now. There are some great points on here. It's just every once and a while the feelings of anxiety raise up.

One thing to consider is that every year, the Sox reel off at least a 8-10 game winning streak. That has yet to happen this year. It's hard to believe that our longest winning streak is just 5 games. I have to think a long winning streak has to be in the cards here soon.

If the Yankees do catch up and move past us, it's because they will have played some unbelieveable baseball, and at that point, all you can do is tip your cap and move on.

[MarkInLondon]

I guess this is where I diverge from the conventional thinking.

I will not be happy if the Sox do just enough to win the division. I will be happy if the Sox take a chunk out fo the MFYs to do everything we can to keep them out of the playoffs.

I'm quite confident that this team will win the division and if they somehow implode and don't, that they will at least take the wildcard. Honestly, I think the playoffs are in the bag.

What I want to see is this Red Sox team grabbing the chance to step on NY's throat in the 6 games we have with them to keep them out of October. I want nothing to do with that team in the playoffs.

Agree with that. We want the division clinched by mid Sept to get all the cards in place for the playoffs.

[mangotree101]

Yes, I've doubled-checked the figures. The RS were:

13 and 14 in June

15 and 12 in july; and are thus far

4 and 2 in August

That comes out to 32 and 28 the last 10 weeks or so. And they lost their last game in May, so my computation of 32 and 29 was accurate. But I'll go with 32 and 28, which is still mediocre.

If you want to project a .667 August based on a 4 and 2 start, that's fine. But if it falls to 4 and 4 after Ana, are you projecting a .500 month?

I'm not projecting any such thing -- I was arguing against your contention that the Sox keep getting sucked back into .500 ball, which is demonstrably untrue.

So June was pretty bad, sure. July? .556 is not bad at all. Play .556 all season and you win 90 games -- not great, not enough to make the postseason, but hardly bad. But the point, of course, is that the Sox haven't played .556 all season. They started out playing two months of .692 ball. If they continue playing at their July pace, they'll wind up with 96 wins. That's to say, if they just keep going at that "mediocre" pace, they'll very likely make the postseason -- but the schedule's easier ahead. Did you really think they were going to win 112 games?

[paulftodd]

I'm not projecting any such thing -- I was arguing against your contention that the Sox keep getting sucked back into .500 ball, which is demonstrably untrue.

So June was pretty bad, sure. July? .556 is not bad at all. Play .556 all season and you win 90 games -- not great, not enough to make the postseason, but hardly bad. But the point, of course, is that the Sox haven't played .556 all season. They started out playing two months of .692 ball. If they continue playing at their July pace, they'll wind up with 96 wins. That's to say, if they just keep going at that "mediocre" pace, they'll very likely make the postseason -- but the schedule's easier ahead. Did you really think they were going to win 112 games?

July was a pretty easy schedule, Tex (2), TBD (6) KCR (3), CWS (4), Cle (4) Det (3) Tor (4) bal (1). Adjust our record for quality of opponent and were a 527 team in July, or an 85 W team. The fact is they have been basically a 86 W/season kind of ball club since June 1 despite getting great pitching . What does that mean for the future?. Maybe nothing.

As for the schedule ahead, it is actually slightly more difficult than July (weighted Winning Pct of opponent 480 vs 471) .

The other pause for thought is they went 7-5 against the Yankees when playing their best ball of the season, while the Yankees were playing their worst and sending out a bunch of Replacement level /minor league pitchers due to injuries.

On a positive note, with 50 games left, the Sox are one 10 game winning streak away from shutting down this thread. As someone already pointed out, they haven't had one of those this year. That usually requires Papi and Manny being pre 2007 Papi and Manny together for a 10 game stretch.

[SoxFanSince57]

Boston 68-44
MFY 62-50

If Sox Go
.500 = 93 wins
.550 = 95.5 wins
.600 = 98 wins

If MFY Go
.600 = 92 wins
.650 = 94.5 wins
.700 = 97 wins

[MoVaughnsTruck]

Agree with that. We want the division clinched by mid Sept to get all the cards in place for the playoffs.

Which would require a 15-game lead by the time the Yankees roll into Fenway on 9/14. The Sox would need to gain 9 games in the standings in the space of 35 games.

[Ananti]

All is not well.

[gcapalbo]

All is not well.

All is not lost either.

The Yankees schedule is about to get a lot harder.

The Red Sox schedule is about to get measurably easier.

Please remain seated with your seat belt securely fastened as we pass through this brief period of turbulent weather.

[Andy Tomberlin]

All is not lost either.

The Yankees schedule is about to get a lot harder.

The Red Sox schedule is about to get measurably easier.

Please remain seated with your seat belt securely fastened as we pass through this brief period of turbulent weather.

We've all been talking about this stretch for awhile, but it's about to be upon us.

If we can finish tomorrow without losing another game, it'll be a 5 game lead heading into the next six series' over the next 21 days:

Table

Red Sox	Yankees
@BAL	@CLE
TB	BAL
LAA	DET
@TB	@LAA
@CHW	@DET
@NYY	BOS

If we don't pick up some ground in this span of time, though, then we should start to be more worried.

The talent is certainly on this club. There are some questions in the rotation with Wakefield, Schilling, and Lester. There are obviously questions in the lineup throughout. The key really seems to be consistency. They have no consistency right now. They can blow a team out or they can get shut out seemingly on a whim. This 21-day stretch will be pretty critical while the schedule lets up. We can see what exactly this team is before the call-ups come in to contribute. Should be interesting to watch.

This post has been edited by Andy Tomberlin: Aug 8 2007, 12:29 AM

[Rocco Graziosa]

All is not well.

No its not. The facts are the facts. This club had a 14 game lead on this team and now its 5. Sugar coat it all you want, make a positive spin all you want, but this team is about to be taken over by a team that basically sucked two months ago. Make of that what you will. These are bad times.

[Sooner Steve]

i am reminded of matthew broderick's scene in 'biloxi blues' where he goes to parker overall to get his freak on...while broderick fumbles undressing himself as overall is on the bed the following dialogue takes place...

"nervous?"

"yes"

"this your first time sweetie?"

"oh no ma'am - i've been nervous lots of times before"


that's me - nervous - just like so many times before...we're not this bad and ny isn't this good...but will there be enough time and games left to bear it out?

HANTA YO

[jtn46]

No its not. The facts are the facts. This club had a 14 game lead on this team and now its 5. Sugar coat it all you want, make a positive spin all you want, but this team is about to be taken over by a team that basically sucked two months ago. Make of that what you will. These are bad times.

True, but the Red Sox have the best record in baseball and are on a 98-win pace. I mean, what more can we really expect. The lead has dwindled mostly because the Yankees score touchdowns every night against lousy teams while the Red Sox have actually been playing pretty well. The only thing we can really kill them for is not burying them in June and early-July. It's obviously maddening, but all we can really hope for is that the Yankee schedule starts to bring them back to Earth and that the Red Sox take advantage of their mushy schedule the way the Yankees just did.

[biollante]

I don't want to hear about projected anything. I would just like to see some solid play and solid pitching. The West Coast always seems to be a nightmare. Winning today would at least be a split on the West Coast. Hopefully, Balt. won't come to life.

[TFisNEXT]

Please, this team will be fine. We knew their was a decent chance the MFY would get within sniffing distance at the end of their creampuff part of the schedule while we were finishing the West Coast road trip.

It always looks worse than it is when we lose and they win...just look at their team's hitting stats the last month posted earlier in this thread, its insane and unsustainable. They will not continue to bludgeon their opponents to death and will fall back to reality a bit just as we did after playing .700 ball for almost two months. If they continue to hit at a historical pace not seen in the history of the game for the rest of the season and that becomes their Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon for this year, then so be it and you tip your cap.

We have a 5 game lead in the division and the best record in baseball, I'd rather be us than them. I would guess we get a few games back over the next 2 weeks.

[jtn46]

Please, this team will be fine. We knew their was a decent chance the MFY would get within sniffing distance at the end of their creampuff part of the schedule while we were finishing the West Coast road trip.

And I think this is important. We kind of all knew the Yankees would put a big dent in the lead during this period, so there's nothing to really be upset about, and likewise, we have to feel pretty good about the lead increasing over the next few weeks.

[Rasputin]

No its not. The facts are the facts. This club had a 14 game lead on this team and now its 5.

This is a fact.

Sugar coat it all you want, make a positive spin all you want, but this team is about to be taken over by a team that basically sucked two months ago.

This is not.

Lets win today, get off the west coast, see the Yanks upgrade the level of their competition while we downgrade ours, and see where we are in three weeks.

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

True, but the Red Sox have the best record in baseball and are on a 98-win pace. I mean, what more can we really expect.

I grow tired of the constant "Best record in baseball" statements. It's like noticing that the sun has grown larger, colder, and more orange yet insisting that it's still the hottest object in the solar system. It's technically true, but at this point it grows ever more irrelevant as it fails to note real problems.

Since June 1 the club is 32-29. That's .524 baseball. For a $143 million team, that's pretty awful and extremely disappointing. The team's record is entirely driven by a hot 1st two months of the season, which have no current impact on the way the team is playing and has played over the past 10 weeks. Over the same time frame, New York has gone 41-21.

On July 1 the team led the division by 10.5 games. Today it is down to 5. That's a serious concern. The lack of consistency in all aspects of their play is troubling. I was feeling pretty good that they came out of Seattle with 2 wins. Yet they utterly failed to maintain that momentum by losing their first 2 in Anaheim. It's maddening.

I also grow tired of the "Yankees are about to face good competition" statements. Anyone following their games can clearly see that they are blowing teams away, crushing them with their ridiculous offense. So it's fairly likely that instead of beating bad teams by 5 runs, they'll be beating good teams by 3 runs. We can hope the Yankees cool down a little bit, but I certainly wouldn't count on it. Let's keep in mind that an extended streak of ridiculously good baseball is hardly outside the realm of possibility: the 2004 Red Sox finished the year on a 45-15 run, a .750 pace.

[yecul]

Someone said that the talent is there, but is it? The rotation looks like two great pitchers and some question marks and that's supposed to be the strength of the club.

Wakefield has a 5.44 outdoor ERA. or a post May ERAs of 6, 5.52, and 7.36 in the successive months - however you want to spin it.

Lester is giving up plenty of baserunners, has surrendered 4 hrs in 18 ip, and builds up pitch counts early.

Schilling spent a lot of time on the DL and it's hard to tell what he's going to give. I think he has good starts left, but also bad ones.

Who cares about the fucking Yankees or the division lead? Boston has problems of its own. Fighting against the team's concerns by saying that the season isn't over is useless.

This post has been edited by yecul: Aug 8 2007, 07:40 AM

[Lucen]

Since July 12th the Yankees have played Tampa Bay, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, Chicago, Kansas City and Toronto. That's exactly 6 games against team's who were over .500 when they played them. In that span, they went 21-6.

In that same span, our beloved Boston Red Sox have played Toronto, Kansas City, Chicago, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Seattle and the Angels. We had 4 series against teams with .500 or better records, three of which are playoff contenders. That's 13 games against such teams, as compared to the Yankees' 0 (they played no playoff contenders in that span). In that span we went 15-11 and we won a series against a tough Cleveland team and just finished off a three game series against Seattle where we took 2 out of 3. We went 5-2 against those two teams, which is a good sign.

Our winning percentage since the all star break is .577 so the ground gained in the standings by the Yankees is exactly that... gained by the Yankees. We're not collapsing or playing poorly. They're just on an insane hot streak and I'm going to be quite surprised if it continues at this pace in their next stretch of games which includes 16 out of 19 games against playoff contenders (after the Toronto series ends tonight), including a series against us.

Am I looking over my shoulder at them? Yeah, of course. Is what they've done impressive? Yeah, definitely. But the next couple of weeks are going to be a huge test for them and our schedule is definitely going to get easier. (12 games with TB, CWS and BAL between now and our series with the Yankees.)

If we haven't added to the lead by then, I'll be both surprised and yes... a little worried, but until then I'm doing just fine.

Edit: Realized that the Yankees 6 games against teams over .500 were all against the BJays, meaning none of their games have been against playoff contenders.

This post has been edited by Lucen: Aug 8 2007, 07:50 AM