Should we spin Lowell? Options

[The Gray Eagle]

I think the question of what to do with Mike Lowell is very different than discussion of the Beckett deal. It seems most people are in favor of making the trade, so now what do we do about Lowell?

Assuming the proposed trade goes through, should the Red Sox keep Mike Lowell, or try to trade him?

Peter Gammons on Lowell: "The gamble for Boston is Lowell, who at 31 dropped to a .236 batting average with eight homers after averaging .285 with 30 homers, 95 RBI and an .875 OPS the previous two seasons. But his character, his Gold Glove award and encouragement that 2005 was simply an off year led Boston to take him to get Beckett. Kevin Youkilis may now play first, with Bill Mueller being a free agent and rumored to be headed to the White Sox."

The hottest rumor has the Twins being interested in Lowell in exchange for Kyle Lohse and one of JC Romero or Scott Baker, and cash.

Presumably, if it's Lohse and Baker, the Sox pay more money. If it's Lohse and Romero, the Sox pay less.

Lohse: RHP will be 27 in a week or two. Made 2.4 million last year. ERA+ as a starter: 104, 100, 89, 105. 180 IP in the majors at 23, 201 at 24?! 5.49 K/9 in the majors as a kid. 1.95 k/bb in majors. Arb eligible. Threw a door-punching tantrum in September because of something his manager said, injuring his finger, then apologized. No doubt the Twins would like to get something in return for him rather than go to arb.

Romero: LHP, turns 30 in June. ERA+ since moved to reliever in '02: 234, 92, 135, 127. 7.42 k/9 in career; 1.61 k/bb. Good strikeout pitcher, walks a lot of guys. Contract, from a Twins fansite: "signed 2-year deal worth 3.7M on 1/16/05- he will make 1.25M in 2005 and 2.2M in 2006- + the deal includes a Team Option for the 2007 worth 2.75M or a 250K buyout (or 500K?)- + the value of the option could rise up to 3.5M depending on the number of GF in 2006."

Baker: Just turned 24. A 6'4" righty 2003 second-round pick from from Oklahoma State. Presumably makes the minimum for a while, so it's hard to believe the Twins would let him go. He pitched 10 games this year for the Twins, going 3-3 with a 3.35 ERA. In 53 IP, he had 32 Ks and 14 BBs and a 1.16 WHIP. This year in Rochester, he went 5-8, 3.01 in 134 IP, with a 7.15 k/9. I can't believe that they would really trade this guy for Lowell.

The thinking from the Twins has to be that they don't want to pay the arb salary to Lohse and the $2+ million for Romero, and they might have to nontender Lohse anyway. They like Lowell despite his offseason, so if Boston pays some of the freight, they can get a third baseman for guys they were going to dump anyway.

Maybe they only do Baker if Boston agrees to pay all of Lowell's contract, and then the Twins keep Romero? That makes more sense.

To me, if the Sox can get Baker and another arm for Lowell, they should do it. Lohse is actually pretty good for his age. Maybe they could work out a two-year deal to avoid arb.

Questions: Are there any other trade rumors out there? Would the Twins really part with Baker as part of a Lowell deal?

Will Lowell bounce back in 2006? Does anyone have a Pecota or other prediction for him?

[Manny's Hammies]

Nice post, Grey Eagle. I was gonna post something about Lowell on the Beckett thread, but you more or less addressed it. The only other thing I'd add is that his acquisition potentially makes Youkilis expendable, too — Lowell being in that deal, despite being expensive, gives us more options than we had before, it seems. And if the Sox learned anything in '05, it's that pitching has to be their #1 priority.

[mr guido]

Lowell had 26 win shares as recently as 2004, and 23 the year before that. Making him the #3 and #2 third basemen in the NL during those years.

It seems pretty rare that a player falls off a cliff as astoundingly fast as Lowell did last year. Between natural talent and his extreme RH pull batting style that will work well in Fenway, I think he is worth keeping around.

But, like any player, you listen to deals and if something comes along that you can't turn down then you have to consider it. Kyle Lohse isn't really one of those un-turn downable kinds of players, though. If the Sox ended up with him what would he do? Granted he's still young but I don't know where he fits in on this team.

This post has been edited by mr guido: Nov 22 2005, 11:50 AM

[amfox1]

Copied from the trade thread:

Also, courtesy of Rich Lederer (baseballanalysts.com) is the following interesting info regarding Mike Lowell:

"The Gold Glove third baseman had the second-lowest BABIP (.253) among qualifiers in the majors last season and his strikeout rate (.116) was the lowest of his career. The multi-million question is whether he has completely lost his power. Lowell's Isolated Power (.124) was a personal low and his HR/FB ratio (.04) was near the bottom among all hitters."

Hitting at Fenway as a pull hitter ought to help his BABIP and the latter two numbers immensely. I'd keep Lowell - I think he will bounce back playing at Fenway.

[Skins24]

I think the issue of dealing Lowell depends a lot on who else if going to play 1b & 3b. For example, if the Sox can get Glaus, then spinning Lowell makes sense.

I do think that Lowell will bounce back somewhat.

[redinchicago]

I still don't believe that Scott Baker is even being considered for Lowell. I brought up this name back in July and I still think he fits into the Sox 2006. Michael Cuddyer would be a good fit for the Sox. He can platoon with Trot, he can play some 3B. He can play 1B. For these reasons, I think Cuddyer is probably not obtainable. But a combo of Lohse and Cuddyer for Lowell and $$ would be a good fit.

[502 to Right]

I would trade Lowell--no question about it. Why build into the lineup the amount of suckitude that is likely to be produced by Mike Lowell? The Red Sox have Kevin Youkilis waiting who would almost certainly produce an .800 to .850 OPS.

If the Red Sox go with Lowell and he sucks, certainly they could drop Youkilis into the lineup without a problem. However, at that point, the Red Sox would have zero leverage to move Lowell for anything. Right now he at least has some value.

I think Lowell is cooked and the Red Sox would best be served moving him now--while they still can.

[DJnVa]

I am of the belief that Lowell bounces back and peppers the Monster.

If you do make the deal, where does Lohse fit on this team? I would surmise that if Lohse makes his way here, there's another deal on the horizon to deal Wells, Arroyo, or Clement.

[Captain Fishtail]

I'm sorry not to be able to answer this myself, but I'd be very interested if anyone could cite examples of other players who suffered massive one-year dropoffs like Lowell just did and then came back to play well (even if not quite at their old level, though obviously that would be of great interest if it has ever happened). Who are the comps for this pattern?

Looks like we've put a blogger out of business:

http://mikelowellsucks.blogspot.com/

This post has been edited by Captain Fishtail: Nov 22 2005, 12:01 PM

[Todd Benzinger]

Youk is not expendable because we have Lowell. We need a serviceable 3B. Lowell may turn out to be one, but projecting him that way is a It may be rare for guys to fall off a cliff at his age--but let's face it, Lowell fell off a cliff.

On a board that reviles Millar as worthless because he had a bad first half of the year (post ASB OPS .811; Home OPS 855)

Millar's splits:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/spli...tting&year=2005

I find it laughable that y'all think a pokey-reese like year from Lowell is nothing to be worried about, apparently because he came stapled to a young stud pitcher.

Look at his splits. He had ONE solid month last year--July. That's it. He was bad at home and horrific on the road.

Lowell's splits: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=3972

[EricM80]

I'm sorry not to be able to answer this myself, but I'd be very interested if anyone could cite examples of other players who suffered massive one-year dropoffs like Lowell just did and then came back to play well (even if not quite at their old level, though obviously that would be of great interest if it has ever happened).  Who are the comps for this pattern?

Paul Konerko posted a 120 OPS+ in 2001 and a 123 OPS+ in 2002, but had an 85 OPS+ in 2003.

He bounced back to post a 123 and 126 OPS+ the next two years.

[redinchicago]

FWIW, here are Kyle Lohse's similar pitchers comparison, by age:

23. Jeremi Gonzalez (993)
24. Jason Jennings (978)
25. Chris Carpenter (971)
26. Chris Carpenter (971)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lohseky01.shtml

[templeUsox]

I'm sorry not to be able to answer this myself, but I'd be very interested if anyone could cite examples of other players who suffered massive one-year dropoffs like Lowell just did and then came back to play well (even if not quite at their old level, though obviously that would be of great interest if it has ever happened). Who are the comps for this pattern?

Paul Konerko comes to mind. He had EQA's of the following:

2001- .291
2002- .295
2003- .245
2004- .300
2005- .312

True, he was 5 years younger than Lowell when it happened, but he did bounce back nicely.

This post has been edited by templeUsox: Nov 22 2005, 12:05 PM

[Clears Cleaver]

pre or post-steroid era? Lowell's numbers and the timing of his falloff would put him at the top of any list of players who might have juiced list. Numbers only,mind you

[SoxsFans]

I'm sorry not to be able to answer this myself, but I'd be very interested if anyone could cite examples of other players who suffered massive one-year dropoffs like Lowell just did and then came back to play well (even if not quite at their old level, though obviously that would be of great interest if it has ever happened).  Who are the comps for this pattern?

One guy comes to mind:

Konerko:
2000 - .844
2001 - .856
2002 - .857
2003 - .705
2004 - .894
2005 - .909

[redinchicago]

I'm sorry not to be able to answer this myself, but I'd be very interested if anyone could cite examples of other players who suffered massive one-year dropoffs like Lowell just did and then came back to play well (even if not quite at their old level, though obviously that would be of great interest if it has ever happened).  Who are the comps for this pattern?
http://mikelowellsucks.blogspot.com/

Jason Giambi?

This post has been edited by redinchicago: Nov 22 2005, 12:09 PM

[Skins24]

I'm sorry not to be able to answer this myself, but I'd be very interested if anyone could cite examples of other players who suffered massive one-year dropoffs like Lowell just did and then came back to play well (even if not quite at their old level, though obviously that would be of great interest if it has ever happened).  Who are the comps for this pattern?


http://mikelowellsucks.blogspot.com/

How about Jason Giambi? McGwire had a year he hit .201. Konerko is only a couple years removed from a terrible year.

Generally, IMO when a player loses it, they lose it for good, but there are a ton of exceptions.

I would not trade Lowell simply to get rid of him, but only as part of a series of other moves to make the team better.

[Manny's Hammies]

Paul Konerko posted a 120 OPS+ in 2001 and a 123 OPS+ in 2002, but had an 85 OPS+ in 2003.

He bounced back to post a 123 and 126 OPS+ the next two years.

Eric, you beat me to it. Dude hit .234 with 18HR, 65 RBI with a stellar .305 OBP. Two years later, the guy's the premiere bat on the market.

[Number45forever]

If they keep Manny and sign JD, offense is once again not going to be an issue. Why not try to keep Lowell, a Gold Glove Third Baseman, and a player likely to rebound close to his pre-05 self offensively. There's no way he puts up a .236 average in Fenway, and it will be fun to add a stud defensive player to our team. I think the plan is to have Lowell at 3B, and have Youk back up him, and maybe platoon at 1B with a John Olerud type. Youk can still get 350-400 AB this way, and seeing how Youk has not shown he can produce that .800-.850 OPS that someone guaranteed, this will give him a real chance to show what he can do.

1 Damon
2 Lowell/Renteria
3 Ortiz
4 Manny
5 Tek
6 Lowell/Renteria
7 Trot
8 Olerud/Youk
9 Graff/Pedroia/etc

Nice.

[someoneanywhere]

pre or post-steroid era? Lowell's numbers and the timing of his falloff would put him at the top of any list of players who might have juiced list. Numbers only,mind you

In no way do I want to impugn the guy, and I'm not accusing CC of doing it. But I think due diligence must include this question, especially since it's the drop in power numbers that is most pronounced.

And one question that I think we can ask, regardless of the above: can we replace the best Lowell numbers with someone cheaper? A 1B/3B in this lineup -- assuming Manny in the middle -- can do the damage at half the salary: ask the Pro. Can we free up those resources for more pitching? For a front-loaded JD contract?

If Lowell can be spun -- BTW, Gray, that's a good one -- I would do it. My guess is that the Twinkies reports are premature, since so much there certainly must depend on how much of Lowell's contract the Sox are willing to eat.