How long do we stick with Lugo? Options

[JimBoSox9]

Just to play devil's advocate a moment, didn't Mike Lowell cite excessive tinkering as one of the reasons why he was so bad in 2005? IIRC, the story was that he got into a long funk and started trying too much to break out of it, and it only made things worse. Maybe Lugo is employing the same logic here, that if he starts changing too many parts of his hitting mechanics, it may only compound his troubles.

Not really a defense per se; just an idea to consider.

Assuming the report is true, it's absolutely an idea worth mentioning. Without knowing the particulars, I'd just say in response that there is a big difference between a player choosing to make adjustments/not make adjustments to their own swing when slumping, and a player accepting/rejecting his coach's adjustment suggestions. Hard to say which scenario applies for either Lowell or Lugo.

[SouthPaw21]

Per the Boston Herald, it sounds like Tito is going to give Cora more playing time in place of Lugo...

Lugo was out of the starting lineup against the Mariners, and although he might play this afternoon, there appears a reasonable chance that Alex Cora will see more time in the starting lineup than ever in the coming days.
“He’s having such a tough time. I’m trying to do what’s right,” manager Terry Francona said before last night’s game. “I’ve got to tell you, that’s not the decision all the time - short term, long term, middle term. Alex Cora got to play a little bit for (Dustin) Pedroia earlier in the season when Pedroia was struggling. Now Lugo’s having a tough time. I guess when you look at it, it’s a good thing we have Cora when things like this do happen.”

[Mike in CT]

It's time for Lugo and Magadan to become best friends.

Julio hasn't hit in almost a full year now, and I haven't seen him make any change in his approach/stance/swing/whatever. It's utterly insane to hear that he "hasn't been open to suggested changes by Magadan & Co.". What the hell has to happen for you to try something new??

Tito or someone needs to step in and force Lugo to be more open minded.

[DJnVa]

SNIP
Some Lugo projections:

Conservative:
.311 / .378 / .456

If he actually does hits better 1st and 2nd than down in the order, as opposed to the observed difference being random:
.316 / .379 / .473

SNIP

Splitting the difference both ways gives you

.319 / .382 / .482

Alright, this is not to call out anyone, because predictions are nothing more than guesses, some educated, some not. But, EV, you were really adamant about Lugo having a great season. He's about 120 points below your "conservative" prediction in average, and hundreds more in OPS, and he's clearly not going to come close to it. Whats going on? They kept him in one spot in the lineup until recently, kept him in one position in the field...but something is going on. Is it simply a good hitter having a horrendous season? Is he hitting in "bad luck"? What's up? This is a hard one to defend...

This post has been edited by DJnVa: Jun 27 2007, 06:45 PM

[Rudy Pemberton]

He's actually about 300 points (of OPS) under the conservative projection. Something has to be going on here. His last 470+ AB's (this year, last year in LA) have resulted in an OPS of 543.

Are there personal problems plaguing him? Is he sick? I'm serious, this is just amazing.

His production has got to be at least 30-35% lower than even the most pessimistic projections.

We were discussing in the game thread; and his season to date is actually worse than Cristian Guzman and Derek Bell's first seasons for Washington and Pittsburgh, and those were the worst we could think of. It wouldn't be so scary if there wasn't the bad half in LA last year too.

This post has been edited by Rudy Pemberton: Jun 27 2007, 06:50 PM

[DJnVa]

He's actually about 300 points under the conservative projection. Something has to be going on here. His last 470+ AB's (this year, last year in LA) have resulted in an OPS of 543.

I meant batting average, but yeah, it's all the way across his stat line.

[paulftodd]

Per the Boston Herald, it sounds like Tito is going to give Cora more playing time in place of Lugo...

Thats a significant upgrade having Cora in the lineup. Since May 19 Cora is 174/231/239 (19 Gm, 53 PA), Lugo is 103/172/145 (31 Gms, 129 PA).

This post has been edited by paulftodd: Jun 27 2007, 07:00 PM

[Vermonter At Lar...]

I took fangraphs data for Lugo from 2005-2007 to see if I could see any patterns. Below is a chart of the 15 day moving averages of FB, GB, LD and AVG.
His LD% has been on a steady decline since the beginning of July 2006 and more or less since the end of 2005. His GB% has stayed pretty high this year and his average has stayed down. There wasnt a huge correlation between AVG and GB% (-.3), but it was higher than LD% or FB% (.19).

It looks like his approach was changed quite a bit during his time in LA last year. The 2 spikes in FB% occured on 8/25/06 and 9/12/06. From mid-August through mid-September he has his highest FB% of any time during the last 2.5 years. That;s about the time when he was playing all over the field and not getting regular playing time.

The 15 day moving average of his batting average peaked on 5/3 at .300 which coincided with the low point of his GB% this season at 45%. His GB% has been dropping since early June to near 50%. Normally that would be a good sign for Lugo, but his LD% has plummeted to <10%.

That chart is a little hard to read, but it looks pretty much like LD%, FB% and BA all stay pretty much in-phase, while his GB% seems 180 degrees out-of-phase. Does anyone know if this is a normal relationship, or is it indicative of Lugo being a certain type of hitter?

[paulftodd]

That chart is a little hard to read, but it looks pretty much like LD%, FB% and BA all stay pretty much in-phase, while his GB% seems 180 degrees out-of-phase. Does anyone know if this is a normal relationship, or is it indicative of Lugo being a certain type of hitter?

His career GB and LD rates are 49.0% and 19.4%, while 2007 he is at 53.8% and 14.0%. He has substituted LD for GB in 5% of his BIP. Besides, his GB's seem to be not very well hit which is why he has 13 IF hits only halfway into the season (average per season in career is 16).

The main question is why, mechanics screwed up, injury, approach at the plate?

From BR pitch data Lugo has swing at the first pitch only 18% of the time vs his career average of 26%. This seems significant.

Career totals for Lugo on pitchers counts vs 2007

1st pitch
2007, 24 AB, 250 BA, 500 SLG (8.6% of total AB)
Career, 483 AB, 352 BA, 545 SLG (13.2% of total AB)

2-0
2007, 6 AB, 167 BA, 167 SLG (2.1% of AB)
Career, 127 AB, 465 BA, 709 SLG (3.4% of AB)

The 2007 numbers for BA and SLG are meaningless due to SSS, but it shows he is not putting the BIP on these favourable hitters counts as often, and based on his career numbers, he does pretty well on these counts (as do most hitters).

So it may be that he is trying to work the count more rather than swinging at good pitches, either an intentional change of approach introduced by the coaching staff or perhaps he just is not seeing the ball well and does not recognize good pitches to hit.

His home/away splits are interesting

Home 266/336/379 BABIP 294
Away 131/188/209 BABIP 134

Of course, these numbers are skewed by his 0-21 on the latest road trip (0-23 including tonight)

Since 21 of the last 31 games have been played on the road, and a good stretch of games coming up at home, I would hold off any Cora platoon until after ASB
(Cora has been horrible the last month as well). We have the guy for 4 years unless we want to sell low and eat a chunk of money. If a lineup can not let a guy struggle batting 9th, like we did with Pedroia, then it is a lineup that is in trouble.

Pinch hitting Alex Cora for Lugo tonight was curious, and Lugo was ticked off, and given that Cora is 174/231/239 since May 19th, I think he might have he felt Tito was giving Cora a chance to steal his job by getting a big hit, of course he hit into a DP.

[ToxicSmed]

I'm postin this under my brother's namebut this might be a suggestion. Send Lugo down for 2 weeks and see if it is just the pressure of playin in Boston. That seems to be an issue. But we all know there is less pressure in the field than at the plate. To be honest, I'm not a numbers guy and don't have the time(try opening a Red Sox bar in fl). But I do know that the more pressure on you the harder it is to hit. And ttrue ball fans should know this. As sick as I am watching Lugo killin the 8 hole, 1, 2, or any hole except when he is on the field, give him a break. We can afford it right now.

Well, as elegantly as you have presented your argument, you must keep in mind that Lugo can refuse an assignment to the minors unless he goes on the DL first. Since he is apparently unwilling to tinker with his swing, I would assume that he is also unwilling to take some time on the DL or accept assignment to the minors.

[happybooker99]

Per the Boston Herald, it sounds like Tito is going to give Cora more playing time in place of Lugo...

I hope so. Tery Francona is beginning to show an unhealthy fixation with keeping Julio Benjamin in the lineup. I half expected to see "Manager's decision" given as the reason for not pinch hitting for him in the 8th yesterday.

OK, that's a little harsh. The psychological effect of a bust out scratch single would have been a Good Thing. There's something to be said for managing like it's a marathon when you have a double digit lead in the standings. But there comes a time when "Who's going to help us win today" becomes the key question that has to be answered by the manager, not "How am I going to build a clubhouse that will carry us over the long run?"

That time may not be now, but it's coming.

[Worst Trade Evah]

I don't get the point in running Cora out there really. He's mediocre defensively and a terrible offensive player. He has no potential, no upper end. We don't want to end up with Cora playing shortstop. Lugo isn't done as a player obviously, but he isn't going to figure out whatever it is that's wrong on the bench. If he's healthy, just keep running him out there until he figures it out. I don't care how bad he looks or how low his batting average gets. If he's healthy, play Lugo.

I can see an occasional spot start for Cora, but any plan that involves much more than that I'm not in favor of. If they trust the player or even just their own research, ride it out with Lugo.

As for yesterday, he had a couple of well-hit balls at people. It's easy to go crazy about 0-31 or whatever, but a big part of that is just stupid bad luck.

Lugo's BABIP splits:

Total: .208
Last 7 days: .000
Last 14 days: .036
Last 28 days: .097
Last 365 days: .256

He hasn't been killing the ball, but a month long run of an .097 BABIP is just bad luck. We're watching a freak occurrence here.

He's the horse that was chosen, and he was a solid choice. Now just ride it out.

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

He's actually about 300 points (of OPS) under the conservative projection. Something has to be going on here. His last 470+ AB's (this year, last year in LA) have resulted in an OPS of 543.

Are there personal problems plaguing him? Is he sick? I'm serious, this is just amazing.

His production has got to be at least 30-35% lower than even the most pessimistic projections.

Rudy, the only thing I've read that indicated a physical issue was a note in spring training that Lugo has lost 10-15 pounds during the winter due to an illness. I believe it was Amalie Benjamin who noted that. She also said he appeared to weigh no more than 160 pounds.

At this point I have no idea what's wrong with Lugo. He can still run and still appears reasonably good in the field, so I doubt there's any serious lingering injury. I can only assume he's struggled at the plate for so long his confidence and approach are completely shot. And I have no idea how he's going to snap out of it, if he ever does.

[RSN Diaspora]

Rudy, the only thing I've read that indicated a physical issue was a note in spring training that Lugo has lost 10-15 pounds during the winter due to an illness. I believe it was Amalie Benjamin who noted that. She also said he appeared to weigh no more than 160 pounds.

While I have no evidence that there is a lingering issue, he did injure his right middle finger last year. From the July 27, 2006 Tampa Tribune:

LUGO RETURNS: After taking a few grounders and making a couple throws to test his injured right middle finger, SS Julio Lugo pronounced himself ready to return Wednesday. He had missed the previous three games.

"He told me he felt fine, and I saw his finger - that purplish hue is starting to dissipate, and so he's not going to be nearly as sore," Maddon said. "He walked in and you could see it in his face; he was smiling so he should be good to go."

There appeared to be no ill effects from the finger until Lugo committed a throwing error in the eighth that led to one unearned run for the Angels. He said he felt a little stiffness in the finger before the throw. Damon Hollins pinch-hit for him in the bottom of the ninth.

Again, this may not be the problem, but it's possible. He was traded within days of returning from his injury. Once sent to the Dodgers, Lugo posted an anemic .219 / .278 / .267 / .545 in limited playing time, all categories which represented career lows for him. In the absence of evidence, this may just be coincidental, but it is plausible.

This post has been edited by RSN Diaspora: Jun 28 2007, 08:35 AM

[TomRicardo]

He's actually about 300 points (of OPS) under the conservative projection. Something has to be going on here. His last 470+ AB's (this year, last year in LA) have resulted in an OPS of 543.

First off, that isn't a conversative projection. There is no such thing as a conservative projection that exceeds all career highs. Lets let those numbers go. They are not really relevant.

He hasn't been killing the ball, but a month long run of an .097 BABIP is just bad luck. We're watching a freak occurrence here.

BABIP, assumes you have major league hitter. If you had a high school hitter in that could make contact but not solid contact would have a lower BABIP. There is probably a greater possiblity at this point that something is seriously wrong with Lugo then he is extremely unlucky. Being he has passed a physical, it could be either mechanics or mental. The fact is though, he is still out there every day because the Red Sox do not have another alternative. Cora is only a quick fix and I doubt Cora could play every day effectively enough if Lugo needed to take time out to get his head straight. Also there is really no utility infielders on the 40 that can come up and play back up.

[Eric Van]

Alright, this is not to call out anyone, because predictions are nothing more than guesses, some educated, some not. But, EV, you were really adamant about Lugo having a great season. He's about 120 points below your "conservative" prediction in average, and hundreds more in OPS, and he's clearly not going to come close to it. Whats going on? They kept him in one spot in the lineup until recently, kept him in one position in the field...but something is going on. Is it simply a good hitter having a horrendous season? Is he hitting in "bad luck"? What's up? This is a hard one to defend...

He's always been a streaky hitter, yet over the course of any given season the ratio of hot to cold, of mechanics in tune to out of whack, has always been pretty constant. Obviously it's going to be worse this year, even if he gets hot starting tomorrow.

I can't add anything to the speculation here as to why the slump has been so prolonged (both meanings of "can't"--I'm not in posession of any inside info and it's not appropriate to comment on the various ideas). The one thing I will say is that adding these numbers to his LA numbers may well be mixing eggs and oranges.

There was an article in BP yesterday or today about how little apparent confidence the Cubs have in their own decision-making ability. This club is the opposite. This is a club, for instance, that strongly believed that a +35 UZR defensive LF should be able to play an outstanding defensive CF, and for an entire year that belief was challenged, only to be eventually rewarded in the most delightful possible fashion. I (coincidentally, perhaps) have the same mindset. I haven't changed my mind about how talented a hitter he is when all is going normally for him (not well, just normally).

[Rudy Pemberton]

How do you explain Renteria, Marte, Meredith / Bard, Hansen, Pineiro as closer, and all that? I don't think the Sox have any special ability to make decisions, they make many good ones, some bad ones, etc. It's also a tad premature to say that the Red Sox are geniuses for Coco Crisp. He's been a pretty big dissapointment offensively, hasn't he? That Lugo is now batting ninth and being PH for by Alex Cora suggests to me, at least, that some are losing confidence in him. Lugo is an average hitter when things are going well...but things haven't gone well for a year and there doesn't appear to be a good explanation. I mean, what are the chances that a 740 OPS guy has a 540 OPS for about 500 AB's randomly? His defense has been fine, but Lugo has been a pretty huge bust to this early date, and Drew has been dissapointing as well. That the Sox are playing great baseball is obviously the #1 goal and everything else falls behind that in importance, but it has to be acknowledged.

[OttoC]

I haven't changed my mind about how talented a hitter he is when all is going normally for him (not well, just normally).

I assume you're talking about Renteria, here.

CODE

Year    Age   OPS+
2000    24    90
2001    25    77
2002    26    84
2003    27    95
2004    28    94
2005    29   105
2006    30    94
2007    31    42
8 years       88

[yecul]

And what is the common tie between all these players? Drew, Lugo, Renteria, and Crisp all had injuries. Drew came with his own bag of tricks. Lugo had some finger issue as did Crisp. Renteria's back was bad.

Is that significant at all? Is Boston bad at evaluating, treating, and/or rehabbing injuries?

I don't think any of us have the answer(s) to this, but I tend to think that health is a big factor and Boston appears incompetent at dealing with that entire realm.

[HomeBrew1901]

It appears to me that Francona has tried everything he can with Lugo while keeping him in the lineup and nothing has worked. He stuck with him as lead off for April and May, he shuffled him to the 8th/9th spot to take pressure off of him.

The only thing he hasn't tried is benching him. Maybe pinch hitting for him last night in extra innings and keeping him on the bench through the All Star break is what Lugo needs to start hitting again.

Having Cora at SS for a week can't hurt the Sox as much as letting Lugo work through his problems. It's possible Lugo just needs a break to get his stuff together. What else can they do at this point?