Schilling's Shellackings Options

[TallerThanPedroi...]

CODE

WPA    Name
1.64    Hideki Okajima
1.49    Curt Schilling
1.30    Jonathan Papelbon
0.78    Josh Beckett
0.49    J.C. Romero
0.48    Javier Lopez
0.41    Brendan Donnelly
0.23    Mike Timlin
0.16    Daisuke Matsuzaka
0.12    Kason Gabbard
0.05    Tim Wakefield
0.008    Manny Delcarmen
-0.18    Devern Hansack
-0.24    Kyle Snyder
-0.60    Joel Pineiro
-0.82    Julian Tavarez

[URISoxFan]

So this thread was ignored for a week and a half, and it was bumped with an emoticon? Start a new thread if you want to talk about Schilling's good starts.

This isn't a game thread.

[941827]

With apologies to URI, I'm reopening this thread.

11 ER over his last 9 1/3 innings -- covering two starts -- is just brutal.

A few observations:

(1) He only threw 100 pitches in his one-hitter, so I don't think fatigue is to blame for this sudden downturn.

(2) This is the first time all year he's gotten lit up in consecutive starts.

(3) Reports from the game thread were that his velocity was down. This after the A's announcers were claiming his velocity was way down during the one-hitter. Is he just getting older, or is he hurt?

(4) His bad outings were against the MFY (thrice), KC, Colorado, Baltimore and Atlanta. His good outings were against Oak (twice), at Texas, Angels, Baltimore, at Minnesota, Detroit and Cleveland. I don't detect a pattern there beyond the fact that, with the exception of the MFYs and A's, he seems to have struggled against mediocre offenses while pitching well against good ones.

This post has been edited by 941827: Jun 19 2007, 11:33 AM

[MidnightC]

The replays NESN showed of the McCann homer...the look on Schilling's face as the ball traveled out was not that of a guy who knew he made a mistake pitch; it was the look of a pitcher who had no idea where his stuff was going. It reminded me way too much of how he looked in 2005, but at least that year we all knew what was wrong.

His troubles go back further than just his last two games as well. This is something that's basically been going on since mid-May:

5/1 vs. OAK: 7.0IP 8H 2ER 1HR 0BB 7K (ND)
5/6 @ MIN: 6.2IP 8H 3ER 0HR 2BB 7K (W)
5/12 vs. BAL: 5.1IP 9H 4ER 0HR 2BB 4K (ND)
5/17 vs. DET: 6.0IP 8H 2ER 1HR 4BB 6K (ND)
5/23 @ NYY: 6.0IP 12H 5ER 2HR 0BB 3K (L)
5/28 vs. CLE: 7.0IP 6H 1ER 0HR 0BB 10K (W)
6/2 vs. NYY: 5.0IP 9H 4ER 2HR 1BB 2K (ND)
6/7 @ OAK: 9.0IP 1H 0ER 0HR 0BB 4K (W)
6/13 vs. COL: 5.0IP 9H 5ER 1HR 1BB 5K (L)
6/18 @ ATL: 4.1IP 10H 6ER 1HR 2BB 0K (L)

Since the game against the Twins, Schilling's had just two good starts. (I can't consider his game against Detroit a "good" game; it was pure luck that he only gave up two runs that night.) If you remove the Cleveland and Oakland games, his numbers since May 12th look like this:

31.2IP 57H 26ER 7HR 10BB 20K (7.50 ERA 2.15 WHIP)

Yikes.

I started this thread on May 24th, and I still have a lot of the same concerns now as I did then, because the only thing that's changed is that Schilling's had two superb outings to help overshadow the three mediocre/bad ones. And his comments on the postgame and recent mound demeanor have not done much to quell my worries.

This post has been edited by MidnightC: Jun 19 2007, 02:16 AM

[biollante]

I saw this tidbit:

"When twice asked if there was a physical problem, Schilling responded both times, "It's not any one thing.""

http://www.courant.com/sports/custom/hc-re...s-sports-custom

I would love to hear just a no to this question but maybe that isn't reality. I hope this can all be pulled together before too long. If it is physical, then get some rest.

[bmacfarlane]

The first time since 1993 without a K. Atlanta announcers (I listened on XM) said he was no mystery to the Braves tonight and that he really only threw one pitch with any real heat to it. It does make me wonder if there's an injury or an age related issue.

[TheoShmeo]

The first time since 1993 without a K. Atlanta announcers (I listened on XM) said he was no mystery to the Braves tonight and that he really only threw one pitch with any real heat to it. It does make me wonder if there's an injury or an age related issue.

And I believe you're referring to a pitch that ESPN measured at 91 MPH on a 3-1 count, and while it was a swinging strike, it was actually a little higher than the strike zone (according to ESPN's K zone). Considering Schilling's relatively recent past, it bears emphasis that Schilling's "heat" last night was at 91 MPH and was out of the zone. And he was in the 80s (other than his curve ball, which he had only limited command of) the rest of the night.

I heard part of the game on XM and saw parts on ESPN and NESN, and there was uniformity among those calling the game that Schilling didn't have much command or velocity, a point that anyone could really see. He wasn't helped by Wendelstadt's alternatively tight and erratic strike zone, but that was only a small part of the problem.

Maybe Schilling will suddenly regain his form, but he looks to my untrained eyes like he's going through a dead arm period or something akin to that.

This post has been edited by TheoShmeo: Jun 19 2007, 07:33 AM

[Sportsbstn]

Maybe Schilling will suddenly regain his form, but he looks to my untrained eyes like he's going through a dead arm period or something akin to that.

Or maybe he is just getting old. His velocity has dropped to where he starts most games with a 87-89 MPH fastball. His other pitches were never plus pitches without being able to work off his terrific fastball. Along with age comes inconsistency, and that looks like what is happening here to Curt, he just cant do the things he used to. Now he is trying to adjust, and use the offspeed stuff a little more.

[TallerThanPedroi...]

I'm still keeping track of this:

Umpire Strike Calling

Date	GmSc	Umpire	Str/P	Rank (of 80)
06/18/07	17	Hunter Wendelstedt	0.431	24
06/13/07	31	Mike Winters	0.435	30
06/07/07	89	Ron Kulpa	0.435	31
06/02/07	34	Phil Cuzzi	0.440	52
05/28/07	71	Rick Reed	0.450	73
05/23/07	29	CB Bucknor	0.424	10
04/02/07	29	Tim Tschida	0.433	27
05/12/07	36	Chris Guccione	0.444	64
04/20/07	45	Randy Marsh	0.422	9
05/17/07	50	Bruce Dreckman	0.436	33
05/06/07	51	Tim Tschida	0.433	27
05/01/07	60	Charlie Reliford	0.445	66
04/25/07	64	Angel Hernandez	0.436	34
04/08/07	70	Fieldin Culbreth	0.436	35
04/14/07	77	Tim Timmons	0.438	41

He's had more than his fair share of tight strike zone umpires.


[p=.17, r=.37 - was p=.26 r=.39 last time I did it after 10 games]

[NickEsasky]

Maybe Schilling will suddenly regain his form, but he looks to my untrained eyes like he's going through a dead arm period or something akin to that.

Or it could be possible that he didn't get in good enough shape this off season because of his non-baseball endeavors so his legs aren't totally there and now he's risking an arm injury by trying to make up for it by throwing harder while also losing command.

Not trying to sound snarky just putting out another theory based on what we know about his offseason and how his stuff looks right now..

This post has been edited by URISoxFan: Jun 19 2007, 08:13 AM

[TheoShmeo]

Or it could be possible that he didn't get in good enough shape this off season because of his non-baseball endeavors so his legs aren't totally there and now he's risking an arm injury by trying to make up for it by throwing harder while also losing command.

Not trying to sound snarky just putting out another theory based on what we know about his offseason and how his stuff looks right now..

It doesn't sound snarky. It sounds like a reasonable possibity. One of the more optimisitic diagnoses is that he is going through a dead arm period, and my post was incomplete in not noting that he could simply be old or in not good enough shape.

At the risk of sounding like the CHB, it's ironic and disappointing that his subpar 2005 season was apparently and understandably caused by his inability to go through his normal training regimen after his ankle surgery, yet he apparently chose not go through that regimen this past off-season.

[Razor Shines]

One thought that I had today: his two recent awful starts since the 1-hitter have been against NL lineups. Could any of this be caused by the unfamiliarity factor?

Schilling is notorious for using his knowledge of each hitter's strengths and weaknesses when he faces them. Especially as he gets older and loses some of the edge on his stuff, he needs to rely on this type of intel more and more. A lot of these NL hitters weren't around when he was in Arizona, thus, he wouldn't have much info to go on, aside from the usual advance scouting available to everyone.

I'm not trying to make excuses for him, just throwing out a factor that may have contributed to the last 2 shellackings.

This post has been edited by Razor Shines: Jun 19 2007, 07:57 AM

[OilCanShotTupac]

Just before the McCann homer, ESPN said that Schilling had gotten to 2 strikes on nine hitters, but had not struck any of them out.

He just doesn't seem to be able to put anyone away. All of those hitters were able to hang in there last night until they got something fat to hit.

[BCsMightyJoeYoun...]

Watched the game on NESN - some observations .. in fact - was tempted to put some comments in the game thread after the 2nd inning .. and was rather surprised to see just a few negative comments.

It was pretty obvious , from the gitgo, that he had absolute didly squat for stuff -
- no command of the cutter - usually 85-87 - some in the low 80s
- hardly threw any 4 seamers .. only broke 90 once I believe .. also no command
- curve was so so
- splitter was very very bad - soft roller or way out of the strike zone - practically no swings and misses. they were taking or whacking it. and no command to boot.
- his demeaner on the mound was that of a totally bewildered pitcher .. he just looked lost - in fact, it reminded me of 2005

Even in the first inning you could see he was in trouble - I can see leaving him in after the 4th - you don't want to blow out your bullpen on the 1st day of a road trip .. but I think any other pitcher would have been yanked at that point. The most telling factor was that Tito had the Pen up in the 4th - when it was still 2-1 .

As to why? Who knows .. he has said his main problem this year is command - and when you combine lack of command with low velocity you get the results seen last night. Maybe he really is hurt. He sure looked it last night.

Was rather puzzled by the comment about the A's announcers suggesting Schilling's velocity was way down for the 1 hitter - the NESN gun had him hitting 95 in that game IIRC. Maybe they were just used to the 2004 version and hadn't realized he sits at 89-91 now?

[URISoxFan]

I followed the first two innings on GameDay...Schilling broke 85 once according to their tracker.

[swany]

Beyond the drop in velocity, Schilling simply didn't look right. Last night, it looked to me like he wasn't getting any drive off of his back leg and was taking a shorter stride with his front leg. Very similar to how he looked in 2005, so I am wondering if this is the ankle acting up again.

This post has been edited by swany: Jun 19 2007, 08:39 AM

[wade boggs chick...]

- his demeaner on the mound was that of a totally bewildered pitcher .. he just looked lost - in fact, it reminded me of 2005

I hate to say it, but he looked, well, old last night. Not just his appearance, but the way he walked around and the way he moved. He looked pretty stiff, as if he never really loosened up and because of this couldn't generate a lot of power.

It sucks getting old.

[ShaneTrot]

These last two starts have been very upsetting. He's had absolutely no command and last night the velocity was not there. Since his Philly days his whole MO has been great command of a 90+ fastball and a devastating split. He's a two pitch pitcher because his curve isn't good and his change up gets crushed. Hopefully, this is just a dead arm period because he has not been competitive versus the Rockies and the Braves.

[PseuFighter]

I really don't know what the long-term results are of retinaculum reconstruction, but I'd venture to guess that it's nowhere near as strong as what's originally there. If Schilling's peroneal tendons are really snapping out of place again, it wouldn't surprise me if his career is just about over.

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

Schilling's been crappy in 7 of his 15 starts this season. He's been inconsistent all year. This is not a new development. He's far more hittable than in the past (2nd in t the league in hits allowed) and he's been getting pounded with far more regularity than we're used to seeing from him.

He's either hurt or he's getting old. Coming into camp overweight did not help matters.

Anyone still want to give him $13 million for next season?