Schilling's Shellackings Options

[MidnightC]

Given all of the the l.e.a.s.h. threads, I figured I'd get the ball rolling on this one, since it seems inevitable given the way Schilling's been pitching of late. His last three starts have not been very good:

5/12 vs. BAL: 5.1IP 9H 4ER 0HR 2BB 4K
5/17 vs. DET: 6.0IP 8H 2ER 1HR 4BB 6K
5/23 @ NYY: 6.0IP 12H 5ER 2HR 0BB 3K

That's good for a 5.79 ERA and a mind-numbingly bad 2.05 WHIP (unless my math is failing me). His velocity is also down and his command against the Yankees was, dare I say, as bad as it's looked since 2005.

I know this is more small sample size stuff, and I hate to add to the noise about player underperformance. But we are talking about a 40 year-old pitcher whose conditioning came into question during spring training, not to mention a very important part of the rotation.

I posted in the game thread how he had a rough May last year (5.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) and then rebounded in June (2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). It's possible there's a pattern. However, I should also mention that after his good June last year, he started to drop off severely (July: 4.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP; August: 5.28 ERA, 1.56 WHIP). So I really don't know what to think at this point. His comments after the Yankee game didn't exactly sway my concerns.

[twoBshorty]

I posted this in the series thread, and I don't want to spam, but I guess it fits better here:

Besides his recent troubles with ERA and WHIP, Schilling's K rates are down and BB rates are up this year. Of course, we're looking at a sample size less than 33% as big for the 2007 numbers, but:

2006 K/9: 8.5
2007 K/9: 7.3

2006 BB/9: 1.3
2007 BB/9: 2.3

Of course, these could turn around quickly, but it still bothers me, especially when you're talking about a guy who's famed for his pinpoint control and velocity. Both of those things have been lacking this year. He's also getting lucky on fly balls, with a HR/F rate of only 7.5%. Hard to see that not taking a jump.

Yeah, it's 9 starts. I could be singing his praises a month from now and cursing the FO for not signing him to an extension (though I doubt the latter part no matter what he does). But for now, color me concerned.

[SoxFanSince57]

Gotta be concerned with the downward trend. His March-April numbers we not too bad. While he gave up 29 H and an OBA of .273 in 33 IP, he posted a 3.27 ERA with 7 BB; 23 SO; .384 SLG and a 1.09 WHIP . Despite getting rocked by the Royals on opening day he did have a pretty good stretch there for a while.

I think the weight thing being posted is nothing more than sports writers' BS, but no one likes to see his recent slide -- giving up 45 H in the 31 innings he has pitched in May is unsettling. And a 1.71 WHIP and an OBA of .378 this month is really ugly.

While I am concerned with recent developments, I am not willing to push the panic button just yet.

This post has been edited by SoxFanSince57: May 24 2007, 02:49 AM

[paulftodd]

Not so concerned about a couple of bad outings but his velocity seemed down. If the ESPN gun was correct, most of his FB's were 88-90, about the same as PettiTTe. There were a few 91-92 mph FB as the game progressed and a 4 seamer at 93. Hopefully he is just going through a tired arm phase, he thew 116 pitches in his last outing in what were difficult innings.

[samuelLsamson]

Well starts 1 and 3 there were pretty poor but while

5/17 vs. DET: 6.0IP 8H 2ER 1HR 4BB 6K

isn't a great line, the fact Schilling dug in to only allow 2 runs to score despite having a bad control day (12 runners allowed) should be considered somewhat to his credit. Overall I do take your point, he's showing uncharacteristic lack of control and command, which coupled with the move towards pitching to contact can be a bit scary when it blows up. As always - as you acknowledged - not a very large sample size, and since what went before was considerably better I'm not panicking just yet.

[mangotree101]

the fact Schilling dug in to only allow 2 runs to score despite having a bad control day (12 runners allowed) should be considered somewhat to his credit.

I don't agree with that. He might have "dug in," but the reason his line that day didn't look worse wasn't his determination, it was luck. He gave up a ton o fhits (anx extra base hits, too), and was fortunate that some hard-hit balls didn't find a way past the defense. That's it. I suppose one can credit Schill for the mental toughness to avoid a complete meltdown in that game, but that's setting the bar pretty low. His stuff has looked bad for three games in a row now. That's at least cause for some worry to me.

This post has been edited by mangotree101: May 24 2007, 04:41 AM

[samuelLsamson]

His stuff has looked bad for three games in a row now. That's at least cause for some worry to me.

Fair enough. Do you worry similarly when a position player has three bad games in a row? Although a starting pitcher's performance is obviously more influential than any one hitter, I wonder if only starting every fifth day can slant our perception further against a pitcher in a small slump. They just can't go back out there next day and get it out of their system like a hitter can. Thus a sequence of a bad game, a not as bad game and a bad game can create an impression that seems more significant than it is.

If Schilling had put up a line of

5/23 @ NYY: 6.0IP 7H 2ER 2HR 0BB 3K

against the Yankees then the three game run would have been a bad game, an improving game with scary moments and a good game - a sign of building momentum. When considering any small sample, if a decent performance in any one game would radically change the impression created by the overall sequence, then I think it's too early to panic.

[yecul]

Do you worry similarly when a position player has three bad games in a row?

1. That's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison.

but..

2. Yes, I do, when there is a clear and identifiable reason to have concerns.

Face facts, Schilling sucks right now. He has bad stuff. He has bad velocity. He has bad location. Basically, as a pitcher, he has very little going for him. There is a reason his pitching lines have been bad: He's pitched poorly.

That said, will it continue? Maybe. I think there's a reasonable chance that he is in line for a shitty year. But, most likely, he will adjust and have some good stretches to accompany the bad ones. I don't anticipate him being consistently good.

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

I'm glad someone had the stones to start this thread.

12 hits allowed in 6 innings last night is an extremely disappointing performance, but the concerns over Schilling run deeper than that.

He's been getting hit at a Wasdin-esque rate recently (45 hits allowed over his last 33 innings). His BAA over his last 7 outings is .370, with a 5.25 ERA in that span. That's awful any way you want to slice it.

As already mentioned, not only has Schilling been awful recently, but his second half last year was pretty scary as well:

Pre ASB: 10-3, 3.61 ERA, .255 BAA, 8.76 H/9
Post ASB: 5-4, 4.58 ERA, .310 BAA, 11.28 H/9

He's giving up a bunch of XBH of late to boot: 6 (out of 12) hits last night were for extra bases; in the start before he gave up 9 XBH to Detroit.

Last night everything was up in the zone. He had no command of the strike zone, and his stuff wasn't good enough to get away with it.

Anyone still want to hand him $13 million for next year? Perhaps last year's second-half performance hints at the reasons the Sox wanted to wait and see on Schilling before committing to him for 2008.

[Zupcic Fan]

I agree. I think there should be exactly the same degree of concern about Schilling that the yankee fans should have about Mussina. If he were 31 years old, I'd have far less concern. But given the fact that in addition to everything else, he is also pitching for a contract, that gives me even more cause for concern. I also don't give him that much credit for gutting it out in the Tiger game and agree with the poster who credited that mainly to luck. But I still think he will do fine when we start playing shittier teams.

Same with Pettitte last night. I've watched Pettitte forever and thought he was off last night---and he got himself out of trouble with a lot of good luck---lines drives all over the place, usually hit near Cano, who surprisingly made the plays every time. I don't give Pettitte very much credit for that either.

[samuelLsamson]

1. That's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison.

It is if you take it out of the context of the paragraph that follows. If you read the rest I both acknowledge the obvious difference between the two, and explain why I made the comparison anyway; that difference is relevant to how significant a downturn in form can seem to us watching - and sometimes I'd say unreasonably.

I'm not challenging the main point - that Schilling hasn't pitched well lately. I'm questioning whether we should panic about it. I doubt whether this post would exist if Schilling's last outing had been a non-descript win over the Rays rather than going down the pan at the Toilet. Given that that's the case, I don't think my rule of thumb (if switching a decent performance for a bad performance in one game would alleviate the worry, then don't worry) is an unreasonable one. Give it a couple of weeks. If he keeps pitching badly then of course you can come back and point out I was complacent, I can start panicking along with you, and then we can revisit the 'OMG why won't Theo give G38 an extension during Spring Training?!!1" threads and get all smug.

[edit for negative-confusion]

This post has been edited by samuelLsamson: May 24 2007, 07:48 AM

[Smiling Joe Hesk...]

It is if you take it out of the context of the paragraph that follows. If you read the rest I both acknowledge the obvious difference between the two, and explain why I made the comparison anyway; that difference is relevant to how significant a downturn in form can seem to us watching - and sometimes I'd say unreasonably.

I'm not challenging the main point - that Schilling hasn't pitched well lately. I'm questioning whether we should panic about it. I doubt whether this post would exist if Schilling's last outing had been a non-descript win over the Devil Rays rather than going down the pan at the Toilet. Given that that's the case, I don't think my rule of thumb (if switching a decent performance for a bad performance in one game would alleviate the worry, then don't worry) is a reasonable one. Give it a couple of weeks. If he keeps pitching badly then of course you can come back and point out I was complacent, I can start panicking along with you, and then we can revisit the 'OMG why won't Theo give G38 an extension during Spring Training?!!1" threads and get all smug.

Reading the whole thread would show you that:

- he hasn't been very good over his last 5 starts or so, so it's already been "a couple of weeks", and
- he wasn't very good during the second half of last year, either.

There's legitimate reason to wonder how effective Schilling will be as the season goes on. He was not the victim of bad luck last night; he pitched very poorly and had terrible stuff.

Schilling himself, on his blog, says he's got multiple problems:

24 base runners in the past 12 innings means there isn’t just one problem here. From lack of command to horrible execution, the problems run the gamut. This game always is and always will be about making adjustments and right now there is a plethora of adjustments that need to be made.

[Jethro Q. Walrus...]

He's pitching to contact. He knows he's only got so many bullets left, and he's saving them for October, which is all anyone in Boston cares about now that we've clinched the division. The next four months are going to be like an extended spring training.

[samuelLsamson]

Reading the whole thread would show you that:

- he hasn't been very good over his last 5 starts or so, so it's already been "a couple of weeks", and
- he wasn't very good during the second half of last year, either.

There's legitimate reason to wonder how effective Schilling will be as the season goes on. He was not the victim of bad luck last night; he pitched very poorly and had terrible stuff.

As I have read the rest of the thread - and as I follow the Red Sox - I'm aware of this, and obviously meant 'a couple of weeks from now.' I didn't say he was unlucky last night, I said he pitched badly, so I'm not sure why you're quoting Schilling here to critique an argument that I wasn't making. I haven't had chance to look at 38pitches yet today - does he at any point say he's expecting to be poor for the foreseeable future and that the fans should panic? Now that would be a relevant quote.

[Bowlerman9]

He's pitching to contact. He knows he's only got so many bullets left, and he's saving them for October, which is all anyone in Boston cares about now that we've clinched the division. The next four months are going to be like an extended spring training.

A poor attempt at sarcasm, or a satire on something that would be written on another board?

[Rudy Pemberton]

The last few games are a pretty small sample. Overall, he's been pretty good this year...his ERA is actually a bit lower than Dice-K and no one is regretting that signing, are they? He's not as good as he once was, but he can still help this club...his peripherals are still pretty strong. 2 BB/9, 7 K/9, and 6.4 IP / Start is good. He seems to have had some bad luck in giving up more HR with runners on than he normally does, too. He's probably not an ace anymore, but he's a very good #2. I don't see any reason to be overly concerned; he's pitching about as well as he did last year.

The Yankees seem to have a good game plan against him; they jump on him right away since he always throws strikes. Despite his reputation as a Yankee killer, he's always had trouble with them, specifically at Fenway (4.91 career ERA). I'm more worried about Lugo and Drew, frankly. I would definitely resign him.

[William Robertso...]

Several posts have commented on Schill's lack of command (viz, SJH: "no command of the strike zone"). I'm not disputing the observations, but there were no walks. What does that mean? Does he have just enough command to throw fat pitches that get smashed?

If this is a stupid question, I'll learn something today. (I didn't see the game, just listened on radio.)

[PedroSpecialK]

With the dip in fastball velocity since 2003, I see no problem putting up with the Curt Schilling of this year for another year+ - he's pitched at this level since early last season, and I have really seen no difference, be it in statline (outside of a tiny dip in K-Rate) or approach to pitching with the decreased velocity. In my mind, he's a fantastic #3 for this rotation, and I see nothing wrong with going to him every 5 days. So he's strung three outings together with a high amount of baserunners - it's not as if that hasn't happened to other pitchers we've had. I'm sure he'll be back to the pitcher he was last year within a couple of starts.

[86spike]

Sometime right before the big implosion last summer I started a thread about Schilling no longer being a 'Ace' on a playoff caliber team. The main culprit is his inconsistency. I still think this is true, but the Sox are lucky enough (so far and let's hope it continues) to have Beckett and Matsuzaka pitching as aces which means Schilling as the #3 is not such a scary thing.

Hopefully he'll make adjustments although I fully expect him to go through streaks or rough patches all year.

I also think this is why Theo didn't rush out to resign him this spring. Schill's inconsistency has now lasted 5 months or so after the solid start to 2006. If he can get himself together better goign forward, he'll be worth resigning. But if he doesn't... there's this kid named Clay in Portland who looks like he might be ready to take a slot in the rotation next April.

[yecul]

Several posts have commented on Schill's lack of command (viz, SJH: "no command of the strike zone"). I'm not disputing the observations, but there were no walks. What does that mean?

It means that batters are hitting .370 off him.

Walks are certainly an indication of bad command, but so are hits. Combining poor stuff and velocity with the inability to control basically covers everything you can do wrong as a pitcher. Unfortunately, that's where Schilling is at right now.