Paging Daisuke's Changeup Options

[NortheasternPJ]

However, almost every time he missed in the exact same spot... his changeup started near the middle of the plate and tailed outside. The hitters laid off, and it was continuously called a ball. I can't explain why he couldn't adjust and throw it for strikes, it is a good pitch.

Couldnt' this be intentional? A lot of pitches are meant to dive out of the strike zone prior to the pitch getting to the place, like a splitter. If he's leaving his change up that tails away out over the plate, there's going to be some serious damage done by the opposing hitters when he doesn't locate it perfectly. Just a bit over the plate and they'll probably start teeing-off on the ball.

I'd rather have him throw it for a ball 10 times in a row rather than locate it perfectly 8 out of 10 times and have 2 of the balls crushed.

[smackdown924]

Couldnt' this be intentional? A lot of pitches are meant to dive out of the strike zone prior to the pitch getting to the place, like a splitter. If he's leaving his change up that tails away out over the plate, there's going to be some serious damage done by the opposing hitters when he doesn't locate it perfectly. Just a bit over the plate and they'll probably start teeing-off on the ball.

I'd rather have him throw it for a ball 10 times in a row rather than locate it perfectly 8 out of 10 times and have 2 of the balls crushed.

I see what you're saying, and it may have been intentional. What I'm saying is, when he started falling behind guys and wasn't throwing strikes, why would hecontinue throwing changeups away, intentionally throwing balls? If you're ahead in the count, maybe you can get them to lunge for it. But when you're behind, obviously they're going to lay off.

When he's really on, he can start the change-up letter high and middle-in to a lefty, and it will sink and tail across the plate and pickup the lower-outside corner, which it usually does because it freezes them. Last night, he threw it over the middle, and it ran outside too much too quickly. It wasn't appealing (especially considering many times when he threw it he was behind in the count)

[jtn46]

He threw a couple yesterday that weren't where he wanted them. I don't think location mistakes are going to get hit, the ball moves too much...it moves as much as any change I've ever seen, including Pedro's. The issue is that he's got to locate it to get hitters to chase it or to get it called for a strike.

It could be any number of things yesterday...

-He's relied a lot on his curve and slider so far...maybe he has a lot of confidence in those pitches right now and didn't feel the need to expend a whole lot of effort working his change in.
-Toronto's strength is all the right-handed power in their lineup...his change isn't going to really do a whole lot against them, so maybe he was trying to show them to be conscious of his slider and curve.
-He's trying to keep it from the scouts so he can wreak havoc with it later.
-Likewise, he's trying to show advance scouts his fastball is better than advertised (it is) so hitters don't spend the entire season sitting on it.
-It's been cold.

Frustrating that he's got 2 losses 3 starts into the season, but he was terrific yesterday. Even in a bad inning, he gave up an infield single, a hard ground ball that could have been a double play, and some walks that were more a case of him rushing his delivery than of him being "too fine" or something. He gets into some serious Pedro-esque grooves where he goes 2 or 3 innings without throwing a hittable pitch. We can scrutinize his bad inning, but if Wells gets rung up or is called out at first, that's a 2-hit, 15 K shutout. He was as dominant as a pitcher can be before and after that inning.

[SouthernBoSox]

Here is what I have noticed from Matsuzaka so far, that suprises me. First off let me say that this guy has exactly three major league starts. We really haven't seen or learned what we will be the middle or end of the year.

First, his fastball has much more life on it than first expected. I watched him a lot in the off-season and I just don't remeber seeing this type of hair on his fastball. There is no doubt he is going to get less swings and misses as the year goes on after people see him, but its not the "Dead straight" fastball it was labeled as.

Second, his mechanics are really streaky. I thought he was quite the opposite of this in that he had the same mechanics all the time. Instead his mechanics are all over the place. He gets in these zones where he is perfect, perfect balance, perfect release points, perfect everything. Then he gets into these spells where he really flies open, he doesn't stay balanced and he gets bad recoil on his arm motion.

Third, he isn't the same pitcher out of the stretch. His breaking balls don't have the same bite and his fastball loses location. This is probably why he tends to give up baserunners in bunches. Again though, I wouldn't be suprised if this was just early season struggles on his part.

Fourth, his cutter is an amazing pitch. I'm starting to think its his best pitch. The front-door cutter he got screwed on to Wells last night was quite possibly the best pitch I have seen this year, as far as actual skill needed.

This post has been edited by SouthernBoSox: Apr 18 2007, 04:14 PM

[Noah]

First of all, great post, SouthernBoSox. I think that's an excellent evaluation of his first few starts.

The front-door slider he got screwed on to Wells last night was quite possibly the best pitch I have seen this year, as far as actual skill needed.

Yeah. Remy pointed this out during the game, and it's worth mentioning here: how RHP throw sliders inside to RHB? It's insane, and it's awesome.