Seattle Mariners Thread Options

[Joe D Reid]

I'm going to save the knock-down, drag-out preview for the end of spring training (hint: I'm going to make you love Adrian Beltre). There's really not much in the way of position battles this spring, with maybe one bench spot and two bullpen slots up for grabs. There's also not much in the way of interesting NRI's, unless you've been curious about whatever happened to Rey Ordonez, Arthur Rhodes, or Sean Burroughs.

That should make for a spring that's heavy on "X is in the best shape of his life" articles, interspersed with hopeful bleats from Mike Hargrove about how well the team is shaping up this season.

Anybody who sees interesting articles or has any sort of analysis should feel free to post it here--last season this thread ended up being four months of me talking to myself. There have already been new posters in the offseason thread, which is fantastic.

40-man Roster

Projected Lineup (* = newly acquired player):

C: Kenji Johjima
1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Ichiro
RF: *Jose Guillen
DH: *Jose Vidro
B: Jeremy Reed (OF)
B: Rene Rivera [C]
B: Slick Willie Bloomquist (Util)
B: Ben Broussard (IF)

SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Jarrod Washburn
SP: *Miguel Batista
SP: *Horacio Ramirez
SP: *Jeff Weaver

CL: JJ Putz
RP: *Chris Reitsma
RP: George Sherrill
RP: Jake Woods
RP: Julio Mateo

Manager: Mike Hargrove

That leaves 2 roster spots for some combination of BP cannon fodder, unless they decide to go with a three-man bench to start the season.

Major Offseason Transactions--for more info on these, see the offseason thread, as most of them are covered there.

The M's came into the offseason needing to plug holes in the starting rotation caused by the late-season trade of Jamie Moyer, and the impending FA departures of Joel Pineiro (now the nominal Sox closer), and Gil Meche (now mayor of Kansas City). They started by signing FA pitcher Miguel Batista to what now looks like a reasonable 3/25 contract. They followed that up by trading a fragile but generally successful relief pitcher (Rafael Soriano) for a fragile but generally unsucessful starting pitcher (Horacio Ramirez, formerly of Atlanta). The general consensus is that this was dumb, unless the team had some inside info about the state of Soriano's arm. The team rounded things off by signing Proven Postseason Hero Jeff Weaver to a 1 year contract.

There were only two important moves on the position player front. The most infamous was the trade of saber-crush Chris Snelling and live-armed RP Emilio Fruto for erstwhile 2B Jose Vidro, who the team plans to plug in at DH. The list of 2Bs that swing the bat enough to carry the DH spot is short, to say the least (in fact Jeff Kent is the only guy I can think of off the top of my head). The universal consensus is that this was dumb, the baseball equivalent of trading two quarters for a Confederate nickel and some seashells. The only silver lining is that Carl Evertt was so bad as the everyday DH last season that Vidro will probably still be an upgrade. Not as bid an upgrade as Snelling would have been, but that's spilt milk at this point.

The other move was to bring in Jose Guillen as the everyday RF, a move which should permamently push Ichiro to CF. That move will both increase Ichiro's value to the team this season and increase Ichiro's value as a FA once the season is over. Everybody's happy, except maybe Guillen, who has a reputation as a surly sumbitch.

As always, if you're interested in the team the first place you should go for analysis is the USS Mariner. We'll do the Cliff's Notes version here.

This post has been edited by Joe D Reid: Apr 4 2007, 02:47 PM

[Joe D Reid]

Hargrove on Ichiro's Contract: It Won't Be a Distraction, Unless it is a Distraction.

The season's off to a fine start. Ichiro's contract status and willingness to look around this offseason seem likely to me to make Seattleactive in the trade market this year. Either they'll come out slow, conclude they're going to lose Ichiro, and trade him, or they'll flip a few prospects to try to stay near contention long enough to convince Ichiro that things are moving in the right direction.

[Joe D Reid]

Per Will Carroll at BP, Jarrod Washburn ended last season with a “'thumb-sized hole' in his calf." That's the first I've heard of the injury being that severe, and isn't great news coming on top of Felix's red light, and H. Ramirez's injury history. There's not a lot of organization depth at SP.

[satyadaimoku]

The season's off to a fine start. Ichiro's contract status and willingness to look around this offseason seem likely to me to make Seattleactive in the trade market this year. Either they'll come out slow, conclude they're going to lose Ichiro, and trade him, or they'll flip a few prospects to try to stay near contention long enough to convince Ichiro that things are moving in the right direction.

The early rumors are probably mostly hype, but I think it is worth keeping an eye on this situation. Ichiro's got a no-trade clause, so he can direct any possible trade, and he'd be a major upgrade over Crisp in either center or right (with Drew moving to center). His speed and BA style isn't typical for a sabermetric team, but he was an insane 45 for 47 on the basepaths last year, and the man has missed 15 games combined over his entire career. I doubt Ichiro resigns unless Seattle gets a lot better this year, and I don't see that happening. If I'm Seattle, and the Sox offer WMP and a pitching prospect in July then I would be pretty tempted.

[Joe D Reid]

Here's a slightly different take on the roster situation--the article agrees that there are probably only two BP spots up for grabs out of the 25 roster spots, but it gets there by adding Arthur Rhodes as a lock and assuming that Ben Broussard won't make it.

If that's the case you'd have to think that Broussard would be traded, as it's tough to picture Seattle just cutting the guy after they avoided arbitration with him by signing him to a 1-year 3.5M deal last month.

[Far From Fenway]

It wouldn't suprise me if the team traded Reed before the beginning of the season instead of Broussard. I don't know that they would get very much from him at this point, but the FO has made a point in the past of trading players that they thought deserved a chance to play every day and who weren't going to do that in Seattle. It's kind of hard to make a case for either Broussard or Morse though, they both have pretty significant shortcomings.

Broussard has .815/.693 RHP/LHP split for OPS
Morse .689/.823 OPS

Broussard has the better more pop in his splits, but Morse is on base more often. I think Seattle would be happy not seeing either of getting them much playing time, though Sexson's feet might be a question this year, so they may want to keep Broussard around.

[Joe D Reid]

I'm not going to link to the results of every M's spring training game--heck, even the two major Seattle papers didn't have game stories today--but the ST opener seems to warrant a mention. Seattle lost 4-3 to San Diego. Points of note: (1) nobody got hurt; (2) Chris Reitsma got shelled. Of course, if a pitcher gets shelled in an ST appearance it doesn't mean that he'll have a bad season. However, if a pitcher's name is "Chris Retisma", it probably does mean he'll have a bad season. So the news is mixed at best.

This post has been edited by Joe D Reid: Mar 2 2007, 09:54 AM

[Joe D Reid]

Adrian Beltre has a bum shoulder, and will miss the next 3-5 days of Spring Training, depending on who you listen to. That isn't a particular;y big deal, but one theme with this team is its lack of depth, which will be exposed by virtually any injury.

[Joe D Reid]

Two news items on Putz health:

One, Will Carroll says that Putz has a tender elbow, and that an MRI was done but revealed no structural damages. Carroll notes Putz being shut down for the week, and takes a vaguely ominous tone about the whole thing.

Two, Larry Stone of the Seattle Times says that Putz took 8 days off because of the elbow, but played catch yesterday and everything went fine. Stone also recognizes the dearth of alternatives behind Putz, which is a theme with this team.

So, pick which version you want to believe. Bed goes up, bed goes down.

[Joe D Reid]

Good season preview over at the Hardball Times, written by Dave Cameron who also writes for the USS Mariner and joesheehansux0rz!!!.com. It hits most of the high points, though it wallows around in the detritus of the various bad offseason moves a little more than it looks forward to what the team will look like this year. Still a good read.

[OCD SS]

Another fun fact:

Joe D Reid will have to work extra hard to make us love Adrian Beltre to overcome the fact that BP hates him so much they left him out of their 2007 annual.

[Pandemonium67]

Stone also recognizes the dearth of alternatives behind Putz, which is a theme with this team.

If Putz goes down, they just plug in Rafael Soriano, so no problem.

Oh, wait...

[Joe D Reid]

What, you're saying Chris Reitsma isn't as good?

Here's the Seattle entry in BP's "How Team X Can Win the World Series" line of articles. It's by Derek Zumsteg, also of USS Mariner, and it too combines some pretty good insight with a lot of tooth-gnashing about the state of the franchise, its front office, and Hargrove. For regular consumers of their stuff, the USS Mariner guys are in danger of becoming a little one-note. Maybe that will change once the games start.

[Joe D Reid]

Looks like the combination of the trade of Soriano, the injury scare for JJ Putz, and the ineffectiveness of George Sherrill (among others) are going to lead to Brandon Morrow, Seattle's first-round pick from a year ago, making the team out of ST. Morrow would immediately become the best power arm in the bullpen, and a sleeper to end up closing if Putz's elbow issues end up tabling him. The USS Mariner guys have a nice article up trying to balance the gains that Morrow gives right noe in the 'pen agaisnt the development time he loses by not spending the year starting in the minros.

Morrow was drafted as a starter, and with Putz signed as closer for the next three years, the team won't get their money's worth by sticking him in the 'pen. That said, he was drafted out of a Pac-10 college, so it's not as though he's just learning how to throw against decent competition. The team might be able to put him on the Earl Weaver plan and break him in ths season, with an eye towards dropping him into the rotation next year.

Season preview coming this weekend.

[Joe D Reid]

Not content with carrying one good glove/no bat MI backup MI on their roster, the M's are apparently on the verge of bringing Rey Ordonez north with the big club. Jeremy Reed has been optioned to Tacoma to make room. With Adam Jones on the horizon, that pretty much finishes Reed's career in Seattle.

Those moves plus the Morrow move mean that the roster now projects as follows:

Projected Lineup (* = newly acquired player/italics = change from projected roster posted earlier in the thread):

C: Kenji Johjima
1B: Richie Sexson
2B: Jose Lopez
SS: Yuniesky Betancourt
3B: Adrian Beltre
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Ichiro
RF: *Jose Guillen
DH: *Jose Vidro
B: *Jamie Burke [C]
B: Slick Willie Bloomquist (Util)
B: Ben Broussard (Corners)
B: *Rey Ordonez (MI)

SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Jarrod Washburn
SP: *Miguel Batista
SP: *Horacio Ramirez
SP: *Jeff Weaver

CL: JJ Putz
RP: *Chris Reitsma
RP: *Brandon Morrow
RP: Jake Woods
RP: Julio Mateo
RP: *Arthur Rhodes
RP: Sean White

This post has been edited by Joe D Reid: Mar 29 2007, 09:41 AM

[Joe D Reid]

OK, here goes with the season preview. Please go visit (and contribute to) USS Mariner, as they are an invaluable resource regarding the M’s. Hitters today, pitcher in a separate post.

Last year: 78-84 (Pythag 78-84) (756 RS, 794 RA)

Kenji Johjima (31, R/R) (’06: .291/.332 /.451)

Johjima signed a very reasonable 3-year deal with Seattle last offseason, after coming over from Fukuoka of the Japanese Professional League. He tailed off a little in the second half (.765 OPS versus .798 in the first half), which might be attributable to him wearing down in his first season in the States. That wouldn’t be surprising, as the longer U.S. season and the utter lack of a competent backup in Seattle would have taken the starch out of almost anyone. Just to expand on how bad the ’06 backup situation was, Rene Rivera hit .152/.184/.253 last year, a line that was eerily reminiscent of Seattle’s backup catchers in ’05, who put up an aggregate line around .188/.231/.291. This is the first appearance of what is going to be a recurring theme in this preview, which is the almost comical lack of depth on this team.

But focusing back on the starters for the moment, Johjima was one of several RHH Mariners whose power numbers were really hurt by Safeco—Johjima slugged .385 at home, but .504 on the road. A $5.6M catcher capable of putting up an SLG of over .500 is a real asset, even if he is disproportionately hurt by his home park. While there are plenty of problems in Seattle, Johjima isn’t one of them.

Richie Sexson (32, R/R) (’06: .264/.338/.504)

Sexson was one of several Mariner hitters to start last season by attempting to drown themselves in the clubhouse shitter. At the end of May his OPS sat at .635, last among AL 1Bs, and below replacement level for any position on the diamond. Sexson started to turn it around at that point, posting monthly OPS’s in the .800’s in the summer months, and finishing up with a huge September once the season was safely fucked. That’s certainly not what Seattle had in mind for its $13M outlay. Sexson kept his batting eye throughout the season (his isolated patience hovered around .070 for most of the year), but his contact rate cratered. That’s never a good sign for a slugger on the wrong side of 30, especially one who has always had a portfolio of old-guy skills.

The USS Mariner guys were pretty vocal in the offseason about trying to trade Sexson. That makes some intuitive sense—while Sexson should avoid the sort of catastrophic two months he had to open last season, it’s tough to see how he is going to bounce back much beyond the league average in his age-32 season. But while a trade would free up some payroll, it’s tough to see who Seattle would plug in at 1B. Ben Broussard isn’t an upgrade with either the glove or the bat, and there aren’t any power hitters in the minor league system right now. The team would have to be willing to eat a decent-sized short term hit in order to trade him, and I’m not sure that fits into their business model. If there’s a fire sale in August, Sexson might be a poison pill-style throw in to an Ichiro deal. Otherwise, he’ll be at 1B in Seattle, doing his best Rob Deer impersonation.

Jose Lopez (23, R/R) (’06: .282/.319/.405)

Lopez is half of Seattle’s very young, kinda promising MI, and is one of the more baffling players on the roster. In the first half, Lopez put up a .280/.316/.454 line, good enough to catch the imaginations of Seattle fans, and to grab an All-Star berth at 2B. In the second half, Lopez’s BA and OBP remained steady, but his SLG crashed to a Crespo-ian .336. The dropoff was surprising both because of its magnitude, and because Lopez’s problems in the minors had to do with making contact, not with driving the ball once he caught up to a pitch.

The USS Mariner guys subscribe to the theory that Mike Hargrove got frustrated by Lopez’s high K totals, and tried to get him focused on slapping at the ball instead of taking his hacks. Obviously, from 3,000 miles away I can’t tell whether that’s true or not. What I can say is that nobody needs a player who is both hack-tastic and slap-happy. Lopez is still young, so the power might well come back or even increase on its own. But if Hargrove really does try to convert Lopez into some kind of Bloomquistian figure, the offense is in trouble. They’re already giving away two slots in the lineup to the offensive albatrosses that are Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Vidro; they can’t afford to punt another one in Lopez.

Once again, there’s no reasonable backup/platoon partner. The team is carrying both Willie Bloomquist and Rey Ordonez, two other glove-first, bat-never MIs. It’s amazing that a team with two offensive question marks up the middle would choose to back those players up with guys who have inferior versions of the same skill set, but here we are. They’d be much better off carrying some random bat who could straightfacedly stand at 2B every so often. Wait, they actually have that guy! Unfortunately, the plan is to DH him…

Yuniesky Betancourt (25, R/R) (’06: .289/.310/.403)

That batting line is a career-best one for Betancourt, who hasn’t cracked a .725 OPS at any level of US pro ball. Offensively, he is what he is: a hacker whose value is tied up in his BA and his legs, and one who is unlikely to improve much without a big change in his plate discipline. However, nobody questions Yuni’s ability to pick it at SS. David Pinto’s PMR has him the #4 SS in baseball (#1 in the A.L.). While Zone Rating doesn’t really love him (#7 in the A.L.), according to the Hardball Times he led the league in out-of-zone plays last season, which points to a guys with some pretty sick range.

Yuni’s skills were underutilized last year as Seattle ran out rotation that was skewed towards flyball pitchers (Moyer, Washburn, Meche, Pineiro). That’s been addressed somewhat in the offseason, with GB-tending pitchers Miguel Batista and Jeff Weaver coming to Seattle. So if Betancourt can hold his borderline offensive production steady next year, he should provide more value to the team behind the revamped staff.

Adrian Beltre (28, R/R) (’06: .268/.328/.465)

Beltre had one of the stranger seasons in recent memory. He started off by “hitting” an almost unimaginable .189/.284/.233 in April, and wasn’t much better in May with an OPS of .657. He looked completely lost at the plate, with no ability to read the pitch coming out of the pitcher’s hand. He was helpless against offspeed or breaking stuff, and his bat was too slow to catch up to a good fastball. Coming as it did on the heels of Beltre’s .713 OPS in ’05, at the end of May Beltre looked like he had a shot at going down as one of the worst FA signings in history.

And then everything changed.

In a truly counter-intuitive move, the team moved Beltre UP in the order to the number 2 spot, despite his troubles at the plate. Once there, Beltre proceeded to go nuts, putting up an OPS of .998 in June, and finishing the year with a .310/.367/.574 line out of the 2 spot. He ended the year with an OPS+ of 108, which is amazing given his early-season struggles. While you generally don’t like to ascribe a causal effect to something as trivial as a guy’s spot in the batting order, the differences were so stark that the team will almost certainly keep Beltre in the 2 or 3 holes, rather than in the 5/6 range where he had batted since coming to Seattle.

An additional bit of good news is that unlike ‘05, when Safeco killed Beltre’s HR power (he hit 7 warning-track fly outs and many of his 13 doubles were off-the-wall deep), in ’06 Beltre got just that little bit extra loft on his flyballs and ended up hitting 16 HRs at home. Beltre also added value with the glove, ranking as the #5 third baseman in the majors according to PMR. Zone Rating had Beltre at #6, but like Betancourt, Beltre led the A.L. in out-of-zone plays. That adds up to a left side of the IF that can get to pretty much any ball, which should be a boon to the new GB-focused pitching staff.

If you can get past the contract (which is looking less bad since this past hyper-inflationary offseason), and the abject flailing which marked the first 6 weeks of his ’06, Beltre starts to look real useful. For the first time since his completely insane walk year in LA, Beltre has shown signs of life. If he can continue to hit for power in Safeco (which few RHH can) and add value with the glove at a premium defensive position, he’ll provide value for money. That’s not too much to ask—the guy is still only 28, and lost some development time in his career because he was rushed to the majors, then lost a significant amount of time to a botched appendectomy. A modest improvement to at OPS+ above 110 seems reasonable, and that plus his glove makes him part of the solution for once in Seattle. I like him for .280/.340/.460 this year which, in that park, in that position, makes him a valuable guy.

Raul Ibanez (35, L/R) (’06: .289/.355/.516)

Ibanez went out and put up yet another solid season, leading the team in SLG and OPS. You sort of figure he has to start an age-related decline at some point, but unless he falls off a cliff he’s still going to be a useful payer. Defensively, Ibanez plays like, well, a 35 y/o career cornerman. He DH’d in 101 games for Seattle in ‘05, but the arrival of Carl Everett will forced him back out into the field in ‘06. He’ll apparently stay there in ’07 after the acquisition of Jose Vidro. Ibanez’s limited range should be mitigated by the presence of Ichiro in center, and Jose Guillen (who is an above-average defender) in RF.

Ichiro! (33, L/R) (’06: .322/.370/.416)

First off, let me toot my own horn and say that in this space last year I called for Ichiro to put up a line of .325/.370/.420 in ‘06. You’re welcome.

Ichiro lost some of his already limited power last year, dropping from 48 XBH to only 38. His ISOp declined even more dramatically, from .086 to .046. Part of that was a reversion to the mean from ’05, when he put up an abnormally high ISOp by hitting fewer singles and more gap shots. Still, his SLG has dropped 3 years straight. It seems like Ichiro is entering his decline phase, though he’s such a unique player that it’s difficult to say what that decline will actually look like—you sort of figure that he’ll still be slapping balls into LF against major league pitching when he’s 80.

That said, the practical effect of any decline is going to be masked by his shift to CF. After Jeremy Reed was terrible then hurt, and Adam Jones was overmatched then terrible, the team finally gave in and moved Ichiro over in late ‘06. The move benefits everyone—it lets the team maximize Ichiro’s defensive skills while slotting in another power bat in the OF, and lets Ichiro showcase himself in a marquee position in his walk year. If Seattle comes out of the gate slow, there will be tons of speculation about whether Ichiro will be traded. I can’t imagine that will happen unless both the manager and GM are fired first—as long as those two guys are scrambling for their jobs, they won’t trade away the team’s most recognizable player. If Hargrove and Bavasi both go, maybe the new guys can get away with it as part of a youth movement.

Jose Guillen (31, R/R) (’06: .216/.276/.398)

Guillen’s line from last season is a little misleading, as he played hurt for a while and then lost the rest of the season to an injury. Seattle picked him up cheap on a one-year deal to fill the vacancy in RF caused by Ichiro’s move. Guillen had a couple of nice season before he got hurt, putting up OPS+ of 119 in ’04 and 118 in ’05. Seattle would do backflips if it got another season like that out of Guillen, as he is effectively replacing the calamitous Reed/Bloomquist/Jones combo of last year who put OPS+ of 67, 67, and 44, respectively. That would be a huge production gain from the OF. Of course, Guillen is now on the wrong side of 30 and coming off an injury. Still, even league-average production would really help. Guillen also plays a decent RF, and has a great arm, so the overall OF defense won’t be hurt that much by moving Ichiro to CF. Guillen is a gamble, not least because he’s batshit crazy, but he’s likely to be an upgrade almost despite himself.

Jose Vidro (32, R/R) (’06: .289/.348/.395)

Well, seriously, what the fuck do you say here? Expecting a MI with approximately three-quarters of one functional knee to hit enough to be a full-time DH? Trading interesting guys like Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto for a guy that the very worst team in baseball didn’t want anymore? Anyway, the Vidro trade was pretty thoroughly kicked around in this thread, so I’ll just avoid taking any more easy shots here. The nicest thing you can say is that even despite all those problems, Vidro is likely to be better than Carl Freaking Everett was out of the DH spot last year. After all, Carl hit .227/.297/.360 in 92 games before being cut so that he could serve as a player/coach for the Landover Baptist baseball/devotional squad). So like the Guillen signing, while the Vidro move was anything but optimal it still probably helped the club. In fact, if the team got a real DH, Vidro would be a good guy to put into an offense/defense platoon up the middle.

Willie Bloomquist (29, R/R) (’06: .247/.320/.299)

Pray for Ichiro’s health, because this is the jackass who’s backing him up. Willie is David Eckstein on performance-detracting drugs. At the start of last season, the M’s appear to have realized this and given the 2B and SS jobs to younger players with better upsides. However, the team’s problems in CF opened up another hole for Willie to slide into, and the Willies of the world are nothing if not adept at sliding into holes. Bloomquist started 60 games in the OF in addition to his various spot duties in the IF. As a backup MI he has no use to this team, as they have no need for another noodle bat in those spots. As a backup OF he doesn’t hit enough. He’s a moderately useful guy in the sense that his flexibility allows a team to carry an extra bat or arm, and because of his positional flexibility and base stealing acumen (47 SBs to 7 CS’s in the majors). Somehow that was enough for the M’s to sign him to a two-year contract this offseason. Eat your heart out, Damian Jackson.

Rey Ordonez (83, R/R) (Major League Stats: ’06, DNP; ’05, DNP)

For those of you following along at home, this means that Seattle is starting the season with 5 MIs on the roster (Lopez/Yuni/Bloomquist/Rey Rey/Vidro), maybe one of whom can hit. Maybe. Carrying Rey Rey also appears to make Bloomquist the backup 3B, so I guess M’s fans ought to pray for Beltre’s health as well.

Ben Broussard (30, L/L) (’05: .263/.335/.480 at AAA)

Broussard was acquired from CLE last year for OF Shin-Soo Choo and a bag of balls to be named later. The move made sense at the time, as Seattle was still in the hunt in the AL West, and had a gaping hole at DH. The idea was for Broussard and Eduardo Perez to form a DH platoon, and based on their career numbers, it seemed like a good idea. Except neither guy hit, with Broussard hitting only .238/.282/.427 in 175 PAs. The team has kept him around as a backup to Sexson, a possible platoon mate for Vidro, and apparently as the backup corner OF. I don’t know that he’ll be better at any of these tings than Snelling would have been, but he’s not a bad guy to have around.

Jamie Burke (34, R/R) (’05: .000/.000/.000 in 1 PA in the big last year)

Sucks, but probably not as badly as Rene Rivera sucked last year.

This post has been edited by Joe D Reid: Mar 31 2007, 11:50 PM

[Joe D Reid]

Season Preview Part Deux: I’m going to have to chop this into 3 pieces, because real life is intruding. Starting pitching today, bullpen later this week.

Felix Hernandez (21, R) (’06: 191 IP, 176 K, 60 BB, 23 HR, 57% GB, 4.52 ERA)

I don’t think anyone expected in ERA+ of 96 out of Felix last year. That led to a lot of hand-wringing last year about why Felix underperformed expectations. It seems like the answer seems a combination of bad luck, bad pitch selection, and an increase in FB rate that led to an unhealthy HR rate early in the season.

Felix’s bad luck is shown most clearly by the gap between his ERA and his xFIP. Felix’s xFIP was 3.56, second in the AL behind only Johan Santana. Given that the M’s play in a pitchers’ park and have a pretty good defensive club, that nearly full-run gap between results and expected results is really surprising. He ought to bounce back this year based solely on his actual results more closely mirroring his peripherals. After all, the K rate is still fine, and the GB% is solid as well.

There was also some concern early in the season that Felix was relying too much on his fastball, especially on the first pitch of an AB and any time he fell behind. That sort of thing is probably to be expected with a rookie pitcher and a catcher still getting used to a new league, so again you’d expect this to at least partially take care of itself.

Probably the best Felix news of the season was that he stayed healthy the whole way through. Before the season, the M’s claimed that he wouldn’t break 180 IP. They broke that limit a little, but not did a pretty good job of limiting Felix’s pitches in any given outing. Felix reported to camp this year between 20 and 30 pounds lighter, depending on who you believe, so it looks as though he’s determined to do what he can to keep himself healthy. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be a top 5 starter in the league this year. The only caveat is that he’s just so damn young that an injury is always a possibility.

Jarrod Washburn (32, L) (’06: 198 IP, 103 K, 55 BB, 25 HR, 39% GB, 4.67 ERA)

He is who I thought he was. Washburn was the M’s big off-season signing in’05, coming off a year when he had a great ERA despite a K/9 under 5 and a tendency to give up FBs. His peripherals either stayed steady or declined slightly, but his ERA jumped a run and a half as his luck ran out. Washburn’s peripherals peaked five years ago (prior to his breaking his shoulder blade); at this point his upside is probably as a LAIM. Like the rest of the ’05 Seattle rotation, Washburn filled that role pretty well last year, throwing almost 200 innings. Really, it was remarkable how healthy the starters stayed last year; the team only had to dip into its depth at SP once it traded Jamie Moyer and gave up on Joel Pineiro last year. That’s one thing that you’d expect to change this season—nobody keeps all their starters healthy two years in a row—though Washburn is a pretty good bet to put up a line very similar to last year’s.

Horacio Ramirez (27, L) (’06: 76.1 IP, 37 K, 31 BB, 6 HR, 54% GB, 4.48 ERA)

Ramirez is the “prize” the Seattle got back in the Rafael Soriano trade. HRam the Lesser has exactly 10 good major league starts to his name, which he strung together for Atlanta back in 2004. Since then he put up an ERA+ of 92 in a full season, and an ERA+ of 99 last year in limited duty before he hurt his elbow. Even that limited performance last year was lucky based on his extremely middling K/9 and K/BB rates.

The M’s seem to think that they’ve gotten their hands on a potential solid #2-3 starter, though it’s unclear why. Ramirez has never been good and healthy at the same time over a full ML season. Also, Atlanta let him go, and they tend to a pretty good job identifying which pitchers in their system are expendable. The NL to AL move alone should be worth a bump to his ERA though that will be mitigated by a home park that will help mask Ramirez’s gopher-ball tendencies. He’s a guy that you almost have to expect will spend some time on the DL this year, though it doesn’t look like Seattle have gone out of their way to accumulate SP depth. With Jake Woods around they can probably eat one injury, but much more than that starts getting into the AAAA squad PDQ.

Miguel Batista (35, R) (’06: 206.1 IP, 110 K, 84 BB, 18 HR, 52% GB, 4.58 ERA)

The second of Seattle three new starters this year, following the trade of Jamie Moyer and the banishments of Joel Pineiro and Gil Meche. Batista has been a horse two of the past three seasons, putting up big IP totals for Toronto and Arizona. He’s been less effective at actually getting people out, though he did put up an ERA+ of 104 last year. Seattle signed him to a 3/24 contract, which in this market represents pretty good value. Batista’s main problems are his lousy K/9, which makes him reliant on his defense, and his K/BB rate, which means that he doesn’t quite have the command to pitch to contact effectively. The first problem should be ameliorated by the good D in Seattle. The second is going to remain a problem—last year’s BB/9 and K/BB rates actually represented upticks for Batista. He’s sort of HRam’s converse, in that he offers little upside or risk. If he can just edge his BB rate down another notch, he’ll be effective in this park behind this defense. I like him to be a pleasant surprise this season before tailing off in years 2 and 3 of the contract.

Jeff Weaver (31, R)

(’06 AL: 88.2 IP, 62 K, 21 BB, 18 HR, 39% GB, 6.29 ERA)
(’06 NL: 83.1 IP, 45 K, 26 BB, 16 HR, 39% GB, 5.15 ERA)

I put both his AL and NL lines up there because there’s a sense that Weaver turned it around once he got to St. Louis. In fact, in the aggregate, he didn’t—his NL peripherals are actually worse than his AL ones. Weaver’s problems last year started with the 34 dingers he gave up. He’s pretty consistently been down around a 40% GB rate, so he’s always going to be susceptible to big flies. In fact, he gave up 35 HR in ’05, albeit in 52 more innings pitched than in ’06. Still, despite the dingers, Weaver has by and large been effective over his career, with the welcome exception of his sojourn in the Bronx. So while any thought that Weaver figured based on his solid performance in the postseason is a bunch of front-office wishcasting, he has a longer track record of usefulness. After all, he put up an aggregate ERA+ of almost exactly 100 in his time in LA while throwing over 220 innings each season. On a one-year deal, Weaver’s a decent flyer. That said, given his implosion last year he ought be to viewed as a project/potential bonus, not a mainstay of the rotation. Unfortunately, Seattle seems to expect that the LA version of Weaver will emerge right away. That again means that the lack of SP depth behind Jake Woods could bite Seattle in the ass.

[Joe D Reid]

Seattle’s bullpen was a real source of strength last year, especially once they got themselves out from under the corpse of Eddie Guardado. However, it’s looking a little dicier this year following the trade of Rafael Soriano and last year’s collapse of Julio Mateo.

JJ Putz (30, R) (’06: 78.1 IP, 104K, 13 BB, 4 HR, 2.30 ERA)
Jon Papelbon (’06: 68.1 IP, 75K, 13 BB, 3 FR, 0.92 ERA)

Putz made the proverbial leap last year, adding a new split-finger that baffled the league. He led the league in xFIP among those pitchers who threw at least 50 innings, coming in ahead of even Papelbon. In fact, if you look at those peripherals, Putz outperformed Papelbon noticeably. That’s not to take anything away from Paps; it’s more to point out that reliever ERA is a slippery thing, and there were guys out there last year who by all rihts should have had better results than Paps did.

Putz has improved his K/9 and K/BB rates each of the past four seasons, and improved his GB% over the past few years as well. There are really only two questions with Putz: one, will the league figure out that splitter; and (2) is he healthy. As noted elsewhere in this thread, Putz an elbow injury scare during ST. It’s still unclear exactly what went wrong, how it was fixed, or if it is likely to reoccur. With the Soriano trade there’s no obvious candidate to replace Putz if he goes down, unless the team is willing to try to pull a Papelbon by putting rookie Brandon Morrow in there to see what happens.

Chris Reitsma (29, R) (’06: 28 IP, 13 K, 8 BB, 7 HR, 8.68 ERA)

While it’s too early to tell how roles will shake out, Reitsma appears to be the nominal RH setup guy. Reitsma’s an odd choice to replace Rafael Soriano’s 2.25 ERA of last year, given that his K rate has declined three years in a row, and he’s now moving over to the A.L. after a stint as an occasional closer in Atlanta. With the exception of his HR rate (which should be helped by the move to Safeco), Reitsma’s peripherals were more mediocre than terrible last year, so his xFIP was only 5.07, well below his actual ERA. But even that lower number isn’t one you want to see trotting out in high-leverage situations. Because of his past closing experience, Reitsma is probably first in line for saves if Putz goes down, but unless he really turns things around he’s likely to sink down the pecking order over the course of the season.

Julio Mateo (28, R) (’06: 53.2 IP, 31 K, 22 BB, 6 HR, 4.19 ERA)

Mateo has weird stats for a reliever, in that he doesn’t strike many guys out, walks very few guys (though that wasn’t really the case last season), and gives up a lot of FBs (GB/FB ratio is down around 1:2). His K/9 is going the wrong way, having declined in each of the past four seasons. Realistically, should be used as a mid-leverage guy; he’s too FB-prone to be trusted late in close games, and he’s less and less able to slam the door with a K. For some reason, though, Mike Hargrove thinks Mateo is a GB guy. This led to Mateo being used in all kinds of inappropriate situations last year, coming into games with runners already on base. He proceeded to do what he does, throwing strikes and giving up balls in the air, which is a recipe for disaster. That usage also had the effect of depressing Mateo’s ERA, as he was generally allowing somebody else’s runners to score. Mateo’s xFIP was up at 5.74, and his ARP of -3.8 was down around Craig Hansen’s total from last year. Another guy who’d be OK in the middle, but is probably operating above his head in the current pecking order.

George Sherrill (30, L) (’06: 40 IP, 42 K, 27 BB, 0 HR, 4.28 ERA)

Sherrill has held lefties to a .173/.220/.292 line in the bigs but has trouble throwing strikes to righties, walking 18 of the 86 RHH he faced last year. With Jake Woods on the club as a lefty longman, Sherrill’s probably looking at LOOGY duty. Pitched extremely badly in Spring Training for the second year running. Last year he cunningly chalked that up to the dry air in Arizona (dry air not generally being an issue in the Pacific Northwest); no word on the excuse this year. He did just fine when it counted last year, so it’s probably safe to disregard the ST struggles. Sherrill is the first non-Putz guy who has a shot at being used correctly in this ‘pen. While it’s tough to get too fired up about a LOOGY, there’s something to be said for a guy who’s usage Hargrove can’t screw up.

Jake Woods (L, 25) (’06: 106 IP, 66 K, 53 BB, 12 HR, 4.20 ERA)

Jake Woods spent much of the season being pretty effective out of the pen before being plugged into the rotation amidst the Moyer/Pineiro moves at the end of the year. He had a better ERA and BABIP out of the pen, but better control as a starter, leading you to think that he might have been overthrowing as a reliever and missing both bats and the strike zone as a result. He’s been shuffled back into the pen this year, where he’ll serve as a swingman now that the team is carrying two other lefty relievers (Sherrill and Arthur Rhodes). Given his wildness, it’s probably not realistic to expect him to be effective as a starter over a long period of time, but he’s a useful guy to have around, for his handedness if nothing else.

Brandon Morrow (R, 23) (’06: College)

Morrow was Seattle’s top pick last season, as an SP out of Cal. After the draft, Morrow put in the usual college rookie cup of coffee, putting in all of 16 IP at Seattle’s Rookie League and High-A affiliates. He came to camp this spring throwing nails, and made big league hitters look pretty foolish. Hargrove fell in love, and Morrow made the team right out of camp. He certainly has the stuff to be successful out of the pen right now, and is especially valuable for a team that doesn’t really have anyone to miss bats in big situations before the 9th inning. The question is whether it would be better for the franchise in the long term (and let’s face it, that’s the only time frame that really matters for this team as presently constructed) if he stayed in the minors and continued to develop as a starter. My take is that because Morrow is a pretty polished college pitcher, the development time is less important for him. He’s started enough games against decent comp that he’s not going to forget how to start. The only way I think the M’s can really screw this up is if the team stumbles out of the gate and they put Morrow in the starting rotation this season. That’s not beyond the realm of possibility, and is probably a bridge too far, even for a guy with Morrow’s ability.

Arthur Rhodes (37, L) (’06: 45.2 IP, 48 K, 30 BB, 2 HR, 5.32 ERA)

Sure, why not? He hasn’t shown much in two of the last three seasons, though he did nice work in ’05 for Cleveland. Despite being a lefty, Rhodes is more effective against RHH, so it’s not clear how he’ll be used in this pen. He came to M’s camp as an NRI and pitched his way onto the squad, so he’s this year’s requisite human interest story. He’s not costing the team much, so if he shows his younger form, it’s a bonus. If not, they’ll throw him back and dig around for another veteran lefty reliever—it’s not like there aren’t a lot of them out there.

Sean White (26, R) (None)

White was a Rule 5 draftee out of the Atlanta system. He’ll undoubtedly come down with a paper cut or a charley horse or something, and spend ¾ of the year on rehab assignments.

[Joe D Reid]

Seattle signs Yuniesky Betancourt to a three-year extension. I guess this means Adam Jones is definitely never moving back to the IF.

Series Recap: vs. OAK 4/2-4/4 (2-1, 2d place AL West, 1 GB)

4/2: OAK 0-4 SEA
4/3: OAK 4-8 SEA
4/4: OAK 9-0 SEA

Seattle exorcised a few ghosts from last year by taking 2 of 3 from the A's. That equals the number of win they got all of last year against Oakland, when they somehow manged to go 2-17 against them. The first and last games of the series weren't competitive, with first King Felix, and then Dick Harden leveling their opposition. In the middle game, Richie Sexson and Yuniesky Betancourt both homered, and Ichiro went 2-4 with an RBI triple against Joe Blanton and Kiko Calero. Jarrod Washburn pitched OK (6 IP, 2K, 3 H, 3 BB, 2 R), and Julio Mateo continued to suck, giving up two runs in his inning of work.

While the biggest takeaway from the series was Felix's dominating Opening Day start (8 IP, 0 R, 12 K, 2 BB, 3 H), maybe the most interesting thing about the series was that rookie Brandon Morrow was tapped over Chris Reitsma to finish off the middle game. Even though it was a non-save situation, it's unusual to have a rookie reliever's first ML outing to come in the 9th inning. It's further confirmation that Morrow is one of Hargrove's guys, and that he will factor into the Seattle pen more than anybody had expected at the start of camp.

NEXT: @ CLE

[HriniakPosterChi...]

Seattle exorcised a few ghosts from last year by taking 2 of 3 from the A's. That equals the number of win they got all of last year against Oakland, when they somehow manged to go 2-17 against them. The first and last games of the series weren't competitive, with first King Felix, and then Dick Harden leveling their opposition.

This isn't really fair to Danny Haren. 6IP 0ER isn't a bad day at the office. Haren fielded a comebacker with one man out in the 6th and men on 1st and 2nd. He made a clean throw to 2nd that literally bounced off of Bobby Crosby's glove.

It is commonly thought by casual fans that "you can never assume a double play," but a muffed catch opportunity is one of the rare times where you and the official scorer can both assume a double play. The inning should have been over.

No doubt, Felix was great. The performance was the equal of his home debut back in 2005 against the Twins (which I attended), but I would hardly say that either game wasn't competitive. (The Twins game was decided by a 1-0 score. The 2005 M's were not an offensive juggernaut, and after Torri Hunter broke himself at Fenway in 2005, neither were the Twins.)