Tavarez as 5th Starter Options

[86spike]

I think it's time to seriously consider this idea for next season.

Julian could slot in 5th behind Schill, Beckett, Papelbon ( or FA signing), Wakefield.

What do you guys think? At the minimum it seems like Theo has a new option as he builds for next year.

[jacklamabe65]

I think he should be in the mix. As we learned this year, we never can have too many starting pitchers. While its a small sample, for sure, I do feel more confident with JT when he starts a game then when he is warming up in the bullpen. The best of all worlds - a long reliever, spot starter.

[geoduck no quaho...]

Can someone comment on the movement in his pitches last night? I've never quite seen balls track like that from the CF camera (almost two different directions)...and they were mostly ending up on the black.

I'm just wondering if I'm exaggerating.

[semsox]

Tavarez has always had a lot of movement on his pitches. As to what he's doing different since the move to the pen, I know not. One thing that is certain though is that teams are swinging early against him....it's just not working anymore. Almost every start I've seen of his, it seems he's only throwing 10-12 pitches per inning. They're swinging early and just hitting the ball into the ground. For some reason, I also feel that he can't sustain the kind of run he's had over a longer period of time, and team's will start to hit him eventually. That being said, right now I feel more confident with him out there than most of our other starters, and that's a frightening thought...

[Caspir]

Can someone comment on the movement in his pitches last night? I've never quite seen balls track like that from the CF camera (almost two different directions)...and they were mostly ending up on the black.

I'm just wondering if I'm exaggerating.

"I got away with a lot of pitches. It was one of those days where you get away with everything," Tavarez said. "A lot of times I got away with a fastball up or a hanging slider and those guys just hit it right at somebody."

Link

I didn't see the game, but apparently he wasn't as great as the box score. I'd still give him a shot in ST though. Can't hurt.

[Dummy Hoy]

A real solid CG by Tavarez tonight. As far as I can figure, that gives him a 3.57 ERA in his four legit starts, three of which were against Chi, Tor, NY, who are all good hitting teams. Obviously a tiny sample size (25.2 IP), but he has looked pretty effective. He would be a nice 6th starter, swing man next year, no?

A pretty sick 53-12 GB-FB differential as well.

Just pulling my thoughts from the 2007 pitching thread. I would prefer to have 5 starters ahead of JT, but I have been very impressed with his stuff as a starter. I wonder if he is more relaxed because he knows giving up a run or two isn't the end of the world when you are a starter?

also, he probably wasn't as good as the box score, but we certianly don't expect THAT kind of performance every time out.

[SoxFanPJ]

Tavarez should be the 6th starter and a frequent contributor out of the bullpen next season. The goal this offseason should be to build a healthier and deeper pitching staff. Having Tavarez in reserve (6th SP) instead of in the 5th SP role allows you greater depth.

[Noah]

Tavarez is ridiculously durable and has crazy movement on all his pitches. When he was a reliever this year he would make one guy look silly with a breaking ball and then send a fastball tailing over the middle of the plate thigh-high to the next guy.

If you didn't understand before why Tito kept going back to Tavarez time after time in the bullpen after every failure, it's clear now. His pitches just move like crazy. And if you let this guy be a starter and settle into a groove instead of throwing him into the fire as a reliever, I have to think that he's a lot less likely to hang pitches, which has been his only problem this year. And so far the results back that up.

You have to go into ST next year with this guy as a starter. Unless of course Gonzalez and Lowell are replaced with lesser defensive players, then maybe you'd have to rethink having a sinkerballer in the rotation.

[Mike F]

The good news, of course, is that he has at least increased his market value.
Keep on chucking them boss innings Julian. Without getting into some trade possibilities, the Sox are enhanced by JT's work in Sept.

[amarshal2]

You have to go into ST next year with this guy as a starter. Unless of course Gonzalez and Lowell are replaced with lesser defensive players, then maybe you'd have to rethink having a sinkerballer in the rotation.

I think you can't go into ST with him as anything more than the 6th starter. Obvously he's been pretty good in the 29 innings we've seen him as a starter, but over his career I think he's got a K/B of below 1.0 in that role. The groundball tendancies are obviously nice, but that's a very large jump in innings and a big leap of faith. Especially when you consider how this year played out, I think it would be a mistake to count on Julian for 180+ innings next year. If he goes into the season as the long man/6th starter, he'll see plenty of time in the rotation.

[LynnRoyalRooter]

In my opinion you don't annoint 5th starters...you have a bunch of guys (3-4) that are options in that slot and/or multiple innings out of the pen. If they suck you pull them into low leverage situations until they snap out of it. So in that vein, yes, he should be one of those guys they look at for the back of the rotation.

[The Napkin]

Does anyone have a video clip of his unassisted pickoff attempt at 2nd last night? That was one of the funniest things I've seen in a long time. A friend and I were talking and think it's worth giving him a shot as a starter just for moments like that and his habit of pointing out which bases to throw to.

[Caspir]

He has appeared in five games in September, all starts. He's 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA in just over 30 innings. He doesn't K alot of guys (13) and he's walked a few more than you'd like to see (12), but he's been solid overall. The five walks last night, and the four against the Yankees need work, but I've been impressed with him this month.

[eddiew112]

With the teams rotation for next year so up in the air at this point, Julian may have won himself as high as the 4th job.

[URISoxFan]

Something to remember is that there really is no such thing as a number 5 starter. The fifth starter is a guy, on most teams, that gets cycled in and out, usually resting somewhere between replacement level and average.

Look at the three best teams in the AL East, sorted by 5th-7th starters, ranked by number of starts:
Blue Jays:
Gustavo Chacin (17 starts, 5.05) T-4th most starts
Casey Jenssen (17 starts, 5.07) T-4th most starts
Shaun Marcum (13 starts, 4.92)
Josh Towers (12 starts, 8.84)

Red Sox:
Matt Clement (12 starts, 6.61)
Kyle Snyder (10 starts, 6.02)
David Wells (8 starts, 4.98)

Yankees:
Shawn Chacon (11 starts, 7.00)
Corey Lidle (9 starts, 5.08)
Jeff Karstens (5 starts, 4.00)

[Corsi Combover]

If the Sox start the 2007 season with Tavarez penciled into the rotation, I will be thoroughly disappointed. Sure, he's had a nice little run here, but to rely on him for 32 above-average starts is a pretty stupid gamble, IMO. He's best suited as our long-man/spot starter, and he should be relied upon accordingly.

This post has been edited by Corsi Combover: Sep 30 2006, 04:23 PM

[Avalokiteshvera]

I like JT. He gets fired up for the game, has character and heart, and has proven himself with his pitching. Though a small sample size, I believe his numbers require serious consideration for a permanent spot in the rotation.

He is also fun to watch. I have always enjoyed enigmatic personalities on the pitching staff, and there have been some!

I would favor JT in the rotation over Paps. Paps is another discussion, however.

[URISoxFan]

I like JT. He gets fired up for the game, has character and heart, and has proven himself with his pitching. Though a small sample size, I believe his numbers require serious consideration for a permanent spot in the rotation.

Of all the things I've read about Tavarez, I've never seen his character mentioned as a positive.

What in his performance suggest that he is a season long fill in the rotation? Otherwise, he's just circling the 5th starter carosel with 4 other guys yet to be named.

[15'sCementShoes]

This is crazy talk. Tavarez pitched well in meaningless games. It shows that he is a versatile guy and seems to have a rubber arm - kinda like a more insane version of Arroyo. He's a bullpen guy who can start in a pinch so we never have to endure another Jason Johnson performance. That's all.

[TFisNEXT]

I'd imagine Tavarez will have the chance to win the 5th spot in spring training next year. But I definitely just dont want to give him the 5th spot without heavy competition. But if he can put up a low to mid 4s ERA as a longman reliever/ spot starter, that would be valuable as well.