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  1. billy ashley

    How good are Fangraphs Predictions (2023 Edition)

    I agree with you that the Yankees are a better team with Berti (brave stance, I know). But could the fangraphs projection be off due to not fully understanding/anticipating how the Yankees will deploy him? He's a quality player but a lot of his value comes from being incredibly versatile. It's...
  2. billy ashley

    Pritchard Extended

    Of all the stories going into this season, it's wild that the bench being a weakness was one of them. I think Prichard could start for a handful of teams. Like, the Spurs and and Wizards would be better with Prichard starting every night instead of the dreck they have at PG. Crazy how good...
  3. billy ashley

    2023-24 Celtics

    Yeah, I don't see them dumping Springer this early. With the new CBA, they need to grow role players on the cheap and Springer already has 1 clear NBA ready skillset (defense). Next year's roster is likely to see very little change (unless they get bounced early in the playoffs, god forbid)...
  4. billy ashley

    2004 WS Celebration

    Not to derail all this or tell someone how to enjoy their favorite team but I find it hard to compare Williams to Schilling. Williams it seems, was an arrogant, moody superstar with complicated relationships with his family. But he was also a war hero, an advocate for recognition of the Negro...
  5. billy ashley

    Red Sox Sign CJ Cron

    I think folks are overreacting to this, a little. Beyond being an alternative to Bobby Dalbec, CJ Cron does not seem likely to be a big part of the 2024 plans. If he beats Dalbec in camp... great... Boston adds some emergency depth at 1B should Casas go down with an injury. If not, he either...
  6. billy ashley

    Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top

    I think it's not really about being selfish, rather, I think Jokic, SGA, and Luka all play in systems in which the offense is designed to play through them. If Tatum played on a team like that he'd have better offensive numbers, but it would probably hurt his defense, and he's probably not as...
  7. billy ashley

    If the RS sign Montgomery are you satisfied with the off-season?

    It's shocking that if they signed Montgomery, they'd be in the conversation or the best projected (by ZIPs) rotation in the division. That's pretty freaking wild. As others have said in this thread, it's hard to know how to evaluate the off-season without knowing the terms of a deal... it also...
  8. billy ashley

    2024 Prospect Rankings Thread

    Fangraphs is an outlier on Mayer, who is a top 20, everywhere else. We want outliers... it means that folks aren't just crowdsourcing off each other, but that ranking is going to either look really smart or really strange, 12 months from now.
  9. billy ashley

    Offseason rumors

    I'd want no part of that Soler deal. He was a good DH last season, but his wRC+ hovered around 100 the three years prior. Yoshida is almost certainly a better fielder (though he's pretty bad - but Fenway makes it look worse). Basically, Soler is a guy who is a decent DH when 20% of his...
  10. billy ashley

    Offseason rumors

    Yeah, Mata was an intriguing prospect with a lot of upside but he was never near the levle of Bleis, who was looking like a top 50 guy going into last year. Very, very different caliber of prospects. Mikey Romero is an interesting case. He was a helium draftee, who wasn't universally loved as a...
  11. billy ashley

    2024 NBA Draft

    Personally, I got some sort of cheap masochistic thrill from watching Brad dump all his second rounders for even more future 2nd rounders this past year. I don't think that shit will hit the same if not done at 1 in the morning. IF they're going to do 2 nights, they should at least start it at...
  12. billy ashley

    Offseason rumors

    RE Blaze Jordan. He's a fun prospect. A guy who hit absolute tanks as a tween and is very famous for a minor leaguer. I think he's had a very successful minor league career to his point and is absolutely a guy people should follow because he has some interesting tools. But the path for him...
  13. billy ashley

    Should the Sox sell high on Jarren Duran?

    The case for keeping Duran is as follows: He does enough well that it's unlikely that he totally collapses in terms of value. He's an acceptable defensive CF who should be at least around league average offensively, given his batted ball data. Some will rightly point out that he overperformed...
  14. billy ashley

    The Fallacy of the Anthony/Mayer/Teel "Window"

    This is absolutely correct. Right now Mayer and Anthony are the two most highly regarded Sox Prospects since probably Devers. Casas was never as well regarded as them. Most these names listed are ranked less favorably than Cedanne Rafaela. That isn't to say they're locks to be productive...
  15. billy ashley

    The Fallacy of the Anthony/Mayer/Teel "Window"

    I think its a mischaracterization calling it the Mayer, Anthony, Teal window. Instead its the Devers, Casas, Bello and hopefully at least one of Mayer, Anthony or Teal. The core isn't that great right now, but another cost controlled regular position player would go a long way to fixing that.
  16. billy ashley

    Trade Value in Current System

    I mean, if he were a FA, I think he'd probably get something along the lines of 5 years, 125 million. The trouble is that the Angels owe him about 250 million, over the next 7. I think the Angels can't trade him, because the return will suck and he's probably the most important player in...
  17. billy ashley

    Trade Value in Current System

    Trout hasn't appeared in 140 games in a season since 2018. While he's been very good when healthy since 18, he's coming off his worst offensive season ever (wRC+ of 134). His K rate seems to have settled into the high 20s. Like, he's the best player of his generation but LAA couldn't give away...
  18. billy ashley

    Offseason rumors

    Hernandez is a much better player, but he's not that 5 years versus 2 years better.
  19. billy ashley

    2024 - Path to 90 Wins

    Ha, that's a good line. I think I might have not done a good job communicating the fact that I don't think the team is likely a 90 win team in 2024. I think they're not. I think this is an 80 win team. I think you'd need to add 2 very good SPs to get there. I don't think Boston can acquire...
  20. billy ashley

    2024 - Path to 90 Wins

    The shortest path to 90 wins, whether that be in 2024 or beyond, is through internal development. Fundamentally, Boston's biggest problem is that they have enough quality pieces to not be bad, but not enough impact talent to be good. They've been stuck in the middle for a while now. Sure...