If you ignore his first 16 games of the year (10/16-11/17, about a month) where he went 12/47, he's at .393, 95/242 in the 51 games since. Ridiculous. He's shooting over 40% since 12/15.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Mind blowing.
I never thought that the day would come when I want the ball to find him on offense.
He gets better every year at something. Vision, passing, explosion, finishing, and now shooting.
Just finished watching the SAC game on replay. When I saw the score, I thought I was going to be pissed off the whole time watching them be the shitty Celtics, but this was actually a pretty good game by them.
The early deficit was almost purely makes vs. misses, with a couple miscommunications allowing easy buckets and some horrific officiating mixed in. The main thing was that they didn't start playing hero ball, and they kept trying to stay engaged defensively. When they were down 15, their body language looked like it was a 4 point lead. Much, much mentally tougher effort.
The other thing that stood out was how much it helps to subtract Rozier. Suddenly all of the rotations made sense and felt cohesive. They could play the Kyrie/Smart lineups, the huge wing-heavy lineups, the 2-big lineups--it all suddenly clicks, and the depth starts to feel like an advantage, rather than a burden. There were other nice spillover effects too: no Terryball to break the offensive rhythm (they stayed in the offense basically the entire game), and Morris stayed in the team concept a lot better.
If Danny wants to keep Kyrie happy and have a deep playoff run, Rozier shouldn't play anymore except in really specific situations against quick guards.
The early deficit was almost purely makes vs. misses, with a couple miscommunications allowing easy buckets and some horrific officiating mixed in. The main thing was that they didn't start playing hero ball, and they kept trying to stay engaged defensively. When they were down 15, their body language looked like it was a 4 point lead. Much, much mentally tougher effort.
The other thing that stood out was how much it helps to subtract Rozier. Suddenly all of the rotations made sense and felt cohesive. They could play the Kyrie/Smart lineups, the huge wing-heavy lineups, the 2-big lineups--it all suddenly clicks, and the depth starts to feel like an advantage, rather than a burden. There were other nice spillover effects too: no Terryball to break the offensive rhythm (they stayed in the offense basically the entire game), and Morris stayed in the team concept a lot better.
If Danny wants to keep Kyrie happy and have a deep playoff run, Rozier shouldn't play anymore except in really specific situations against quick guards.
Agree with all of that. Terry should be Kyrie injury insurance. Not sure Rozier even cares to defend small, quick guards. We certainly haven't seen him come off the bench and provide that defense this season.
I asked this question to DeJesus on the game thread (after one of his sarcastic "the Board knows better than Brad/Zarren" posts)
Once Rozier returns will Jaylen Brown get 30mpg?
I’d rather see Philly pass Indy. The sooner I can stop worrying about a Celtics-Sixers first roumd matchup, the better. The Celtics would likely win, but it would be a slugfest.
Agreed, and I'd like to hold out hope that the Wolves/Lakers can pass the Kings
The Pacers are not scary at all in a playoff context. They’re not going to be able to score.
We definitely want #3, it's not out of the realm of possibility that at #4 Philly could be in the EC Finals. We'd want home court advantage.
You really like taking your shots, don't you? I was just joking about Zarren reading the threads to be clear. Apologies - message received.
In any event, the answer about minutes is likely the same as it has been. Stevens et al are going to try and keep everyone engaged throughout the rest of the schedule. That likely means that guys like Rozier/Mook/Hayward/Player-X-who- happens-to-have-an-off-night-and-should-be-stapled-to-the-bench-for-eternity will still get minutes at the expense of others who may be more deserving. And my expectation is that this will change once the playoffs start.
I was at the game and witnessed the complete opposite for over 30 minutes of this game. Brad was forced to call one non-TV timeout in each of the first three quarters following multiple possessions of not even faking effort and/or miscommunication by disengaged players as the crowd was either silent, moaned, or sprinkled them with some boos as they walked to the huddle. Not sure if the television caught it but following a super lazy TO near halfcourt in the 3rd quarter by Hayward that resulted in a Kings layup while 3 Celtics barely made it to halfcourt…..Gordon and MaMo remained under the basket both with palms up explaining to the other what they did wrong. This included on the sideline as, of all people, TimeLord came between them to "send them to their corners" as neither was backing down off their claim of the other screwing up.
The Celtics came out flat while settling for jumper after jumper as they clanged one after another.....Kyrie finally set the tone by repeatedly taking it to the rim versus whichever overmatched defender attempted to check him but those first 8-9 minutes were as bad from a pure effort perspective as we've had all year. First game back from West Coast trips? I'm sure this played a factor as we've seen in the past and it is easy to fall into the trap of settling for jumpers when they really aren't contested. If not for Kyrie recognizing that a double digit deficit put them in the danger zone of several occasions prior to him taking the game over for stretches we don't win a game with this type of preparation and/or effort. The win belongs to Kyrie for re-setting the tone at critical points in the game and to Jaylen for his 2nd half shooting spree which seemed to take the wind out of the Kings sail.
Defensively was much the same as I saw offensively.....no urgency on closeouts, a step or two behind on rotations for literally every possession in the first quarter (and again first part of second half) as the Kings put up 38 on us in those first 12 minutes. For 3 quarters it was "fake hustle" closeouts allowing Hield clean looks (in fairness, he also drilled a few contested ones) and Fox to get wherever he pleased with the ball. Again, Brad responded by calling 3 non-TV timeouts to get his team to regroup after being lackadaisical during Kings runs.
I actually felt we missed Terry's energy a lot in the late 1st/early 2nd quarters when the game slowed to a standstill from foul trouble/arguing with officials, etc. I always said I felt we play better without 1-2 of our regular rotation players allowing one of our wings to get minutes/touches/rhythm that they wouldn't otherwise......last night it was Jaylen as the beneficiary with Hayward replacing Terry as our second unit PG but he didn't provide much energy while looking slow without any burst off the dribble. The problem is that Brad doesn't have a Ouija board to tell him which equally skilled rotation player is going to bring it/not bring it on any given night. I suspect in the playoffs we'll see one of these guys not see action in the 2nd half of these games based on their effort/energy during their first half minutes. Baynes was another guy who was a step behind on rotations causing him to foul out in a game he would have gotten 25 min due to the Kings big lineup but it did result in the crowd chanting "Time-Lord!" as he checked into the scorers table. Per usual he was lost offensively and made a slow closeout on a Hield 3 but used his looooong arms to intercept a wing entry bounce pass that was arguable our best defensively play of the night.
A couple other things I noticed live that may/may not be visible from the couch...…….
1. Baynes is really really lean. If someone asked you who was skinnier between Baynes and Cauley-Stein our initial response would almost universally be "Obv WCS"...….but that isn't the case at all.
2. The crowd seemed to feel Hayward was being jobbed by the officials at the end of the 1st or 2nd quarter (I forget which) with 3-4 consecutive calls going against him but I felt the refs did a great job in this game imo. Fox (I believe) missed a jumper with the replay showing Hayward didn't hit his arm as the crowd booed and cursed the ref but the call was that Gordon didn't allow Fox his space to land which was correct......it still amazes me that fans don't understand this rule and how it is an auto-whistle especially when the shooter can sell it. The next time down the floor Hayward scored at the rim while being knocked to the floor but the player, I believe it was Barnes, defended it perfectly by remaining vertical in his challenge at the rim which keeping his arms straight up as opposed to slamming down on the player which would have resulted in a 3-point play. A couple other times on penetrations there was some contact however with Gordon lacking explosion it allowed the defender to remain in position.
I was really impressed by the zebras last night and there was another piece of great officiating that largely went unnoticed by the crowd. Earlier in the game a double T was issued involving Harry Giles......then in the 2nd half, Baynes and Giles got into a brief skirmish and one official came in and issued Baynes a T prior to going to do same to Giles when another official intervened with his whistle, huddled with the official and zero T's were ultimately called rather than tossing Giles for simply being tangled up with Baynes. That is some great teamwork right there.
3. I posted a few weeks ago questioning Tatum's upside as he fades out of the game for long stretches of time. Last night was an example of what I was referring to......as I was thinking about each player and their performance I had almost forgotten that Tatum had played in this game. Virtually zero impact.
4. The couch is cheap. 2 tickets in Sec 111 are not. Maybe this is why I don't go to more live Celtics games at home.....between tickets, parking, and food/drink the tab nearly touched the $800 mark. Crazy.
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I get that. But I want to be ahead of any team possible for homecourt--Indiana and Philly.
They are not scary, but the Celtics can not afford to overlook any team that makes the playoffs. They aren't good enough to just roll the balls out and expect to easily win a series with the way they are playing.
IND is 5-5 in their last 10. They have one good win against OKC, the other 4 were against NYK, CHI, WAS, and MIN. And all 5 of those wins were close contests. Meanwhile, they lost bad to the only other good teams they played (PHI and MIL) and lost to some other dregs in ORL, DAL, and DET.
Good grief, how on earth is that a shot? Obviously, I know Mike Zarren doesn't read game threads. You were clearly being sarcastic, that's no biggie, 50% of SoSH posts are sarcasm (even your reply above is filled with sarcasm).
Anyways, you were thrilled with Jaylen Brown's play earlier. I was wondering if you think he'll see ~ 30 mpg, at the expense of Rozier, heading to the playoffs.
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5. Al Horford as a 4 put up a plus 16, as a 5 he put up a -15...Horford/Baynes* and Horford/TL for 7:18 minutes between 3rd and 4th Quarters yielded 8 points defensively. Bagley/Giles are neither 7' or thick classic BIGs. Al had zero issues guarding a young/energetic Bagley.
*Baynes is still not fully healthy, but he still put up a plus 15 last night even with his 5 fouls.
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We go to a few games every year for much less than that. Gotta sit above the scoreboard though.
The refs went loopy with the touch fouls for a while and were inconsistent. Five minutes of no-blood-no-foul, followed by five minutes of touch fouls. That's going to bother players, especially smart veterans who want to know where the line is. The crowd fed off Hayward's anger. Overall the refs were fine. Giles move was the smart one, although the kid may have benefited from the lesson of not starting shit with a tech in the books.
I thought that the defensive effort overall was above average for the last month. Kyrie clearly took some plays off, and there were a number of breakdowns. The latter wasn't effort imo.
Tatum is part of the problem on offense. He isn't ripping off Kobe. He looks like Morris. Brad should move his locker or something.
Yeah after an energy burst/opponent letdown following the Oladipo injury the Pacers have taken a huge step back to where you would expect such a flawed team to be without their star.
Sacramento is a good matchup for two bigs in that Horford doesn’t have to chase a perimeter 4 around the perimeter whenever a 4/5 combo consisting of two of WCS/Bagley/Giles on the floor for the Kings. This is why Brad went to TL in the 4th quarter to stay in a good matchup. Bagley is not a 3 or perimeter 4 so not sure why you’d equate him to other bad matchups that Brad avoids.
Baynes has been awful since returning and was pretty bad last night. The play when he passed up an uncontested dunk for a missed 3 that resulted in a Sac runout followed by a pissed off Brad calling a timeout was wtf mind blowing. Using +/- when it favors your position is silly......Jaylen and Kyrie hit their flurry of 3’s in transition with Baynes on the floor while most/all of those fouls due to him being a step slow and out of position occurred early in the 2nd and 4th when it was a side-out which doesn’t hurt his personal +/- but it helped put the Kings in an early bonus which affects our defense later in this quarter when Baynes is on the bench.
Yeah I don’t actually mind Sec 301 a few rows up but it was my wife’s first game inside the bowl (last year we got a nice hookup in a suite) so I wanted her to have a great view in our one game this year.
OKC was playing in a back-to-back as well.
IND is 0-4 in their last four road games (PHI, MIL, DAL, and DET). They now go to DEN, POR, LAC, and GSW. They then have a home game vs DEN and the go to OKC and BOS. I wouldn't be shocked if they lost all 6 road games.
Here's an article that explains part of the reason why: without Oladipo, IND has no go-to guy in crunch time: https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/the-digest/indiana-pacers/3439615-pacers-are-an-absolute-train-wreck-in-clutch-time-without-victor-Oladipo
Pretty obvious why imo. No alpha.
Gotta commend them and their try-hard spirit, not folding when VO went down. But in the playoffs, basically all of those guys can be neutralized. And everyone tries hard in the playoffs.
Gotta commend them and their try-hard spirit, not folding when VO went down. But in the playoffs, basically all of those guys can be neutralized. And everyone tries hard in the playoffs.
That is incorrect. There were ZERO transition 3s by Jaylen or Kyrie while Baynes was on the floor. The 3s hit by Kyrie and Jaylen at the end of the 3rd Quarter were from the half court set. Baynes helped with 2 screens for the Kyrie 3 and he tipped out the ball on the offensive glass for the Jaylen 3. The guy isn't exactly a potted plant sitting in the corner watching his teammates shoot.
The Celtics weren't hurt by Sacramento's FT and every Sac FT was made on a shooting foul, so that didn't affect the other players plus/minus.
The bigger issue here isn't Baynes (he's fungible), its Horford at the 4. Al is a much, much better defender at the 4 then MaMo. MaMo's defense is so bad (a team worst 106.9) that he needs to have a very good shooting game, like last night, to help out (MaMo was still a -7). Every single time this season that Al Horford has played the 4 it's been positive, at some point it's not just the matchup.
https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1
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I agree with this. You can really see it when he tries to move laterally, he doesn't trust(or can't) pushing off with his foot.
Don't know if they need to shut him down again, or it's something he needs to work through, but he doesn't seem near 100%.
Did BenHogan just call Baynes "fungible"? I feel like we need to launch a kidnapping investigation just on that basis.
Al is going to get some rest.
Nicole Yang @nicolecyang
Brad Stevens says the Celtics already have picked 3-4 games over the remaining 12 that Al Horford will not play.
Nicole Yang @nicolecyang
Brad Stevens says the Celtics already have picked 3-4 games over the remaining 12 that Al Horford will not play.
March 26th @ Cleveland
March 30th @ Brooklyn
April 3rd @ Miami
April 9th @ Washington
So great
Well I suck at this
https://deadspin.com/i-cant-stop-looking-at-this-photo-of-marcus-smart-nonch-1833472812
Well I suck at this
https://deadspin.com/i-cant-stop-looking-at-this-photo-of-marcus-smart-nonch-1833472812
So great
Well I suck at this
https://deadspin.com/i-cant-stop-looking-at-this-photo-of-marcus-smart-nonch-1833472812
Hometown discount here but what Embiid did in the exchange was way worse, hiding behind the refs to get in a dirty hit.
That’s amazing! Thanks for posting!So great
Well I suck at this
https://deadspin.com/i-cant-stop-looking-at-this-photo-of-marcus-smart-nonch-1833472812
Don't get me wrong. I don't love Embiid, but when did that happen? It looked to me like he ran around the refs to get at Smart but he couldn't get trough the crowd.
DA said on radio that he thinks Baynes' ankle injury is "more of a a day to day thing than multiple weeks" but Cs willbe cautious. https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/3/21/18275853/danny-ainge-optimistic-with-gordon-hayward-and-aron-baynes-injuries-boston-celtics-charlotte-hornets
You'd like to dispose of the Pacers as quickly as possible and then dig in for a Milwaukee war.
Danny preaching:
Ainge called Baynes “a big time energy guy, a team-oriented guy. He sacrifices his body, he takes charges. He’s a big help to our defense.”
IMO the real secret sauce to making their defense (and team) work is Al Horford at the 4. The Baynes/Horford combo's advanced metrics is a 107.6 off rtg/ 81.7 def rtg, for an eye popping net rating of 25.9. While Al has only played limited minutes at the 4 (5% of his minutes) the defensive metrics with him as the 2nd big is absurd (net 76.2 defensive rating while playing with AB/DT/TL). Baynes (108.8/99.7) by himself is solid, but when he plays with Horford the team excels regardless of the matchup (as it did ALL last season).
While Al is an OK defensive 5, IMO the real issue is Marcus Morris's defense (107.5 defensive rating) at the 4. The Celtics can't withstand MaMo's defense for 33-35 mpg, unless he shoots like he did earlier this season.
the drumbeat continues...
https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&GroupQuantity=2&TeamID=1610612738&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1
https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1
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The thing is, I think the team has been agreeing with you more and more of late. The problem is that Baynes just can't stay healthy, unfortunately.
Obviously then there's the whole "why does Morris get Brown's minutes" thing, but that's been hashed and rehashed to death at this point.
I like Jaylen a ton, and his turnaround has been dramatic, he should play more minutes (plus that increases his asset value, which you have cleverly pointed out before). BUT Jaylen (and the C's) are better served with him being the top scoring option off the bench than the 4th option with the starting unit. To the eye test, JB appears indecisive when he is on the floor with the starters and has trouble getting into a groove.
CBS had/has slowly drifted in the Baynes/Horford direction. BUT they have played a total of 76 minutes together for the entire season, so Brad has really resisted on making the move. Brad should go full steam ahead and split Al's minutes between the 4 and 5, even if that means pairing him with Theis or TL with Baynes out. The fears of playing Al at the 4 in the new "pace n space" era have been unfounded. Playing MaMo for extended minutes (30-35) at the 4 is much more of a risk, especially defensively, than playing Al at the 4 for 14-18 mpg IMO
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Regarding JB, I don't think that many are advocating starting him. Some of us want to see him getting a few more (5 maybe) minutes, and having that come from Morris/Rozier. He can be top 5 in minutes without starting.
Regarding Embiid, he gave worse than he got. I'm glad that Marcus dumped him on his ass. Regardless of the call on the floor, his was an unnecessarily dirty screen.
That screen was what about half of all screens look like in the NBA. Smart way overreacted
Jaylen works better off the bench because he's a black hole. Off the bench, he's the 1st or best scoring option so him looking to always shoot is a positive. I could see him being an 18-20 point scorer off the bench as soon as next year depending on the situation. If his passing game never develops, it's probably the best role for him. Off the bench, he doesn't have to worry about including others, just scoring the ball.
Agreed, good point, Jaylen will never rack up the assists. His assist/turnover ratio has always been weak which will prevent him from ever being a max player.
I don't think Jaylen is a "pound the ball in the halfcourt, drain the clock, try to back his guy down and then chuck" black hole ala MaMo/Rozier. He's more of a "get the ball, launch a 3 or drive immediately to the lane, no pass" black hole, at least that's what I see.
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He gave him an elbow for sure. But there is generally some hip check, moving of the legs, shoving an elbow, etc whenever a hard screen is set