The ‘18-‘19 Kings/Grizzlies/Clippers: Tracking the Picks

Bleedred

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Kings defeat Portland in Sacramento 115-107 (Sacto has won four of their last five games). Their young core is coming together very nicely right now.
We've had great luck with the Brooklyn picks and where they were slotted. Makes sense to even out a bit with Sacramento's impressive (but unfortunate from a Celtic perspective) improvement.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think it is doubtful that MEM pick conveys this year. It is more likely that MEM tanks the rest of the year to keep the pick.

I do, however, think that LAC will make a strong push to make the playoffs, if only to be a better attraction for free agents (read: Kawhi) in the offseason. I'd expect LAC to be active in the trade market over the next month.
Potentially although I think it's also possible that they may see this draft as being mediocre and would rather lose their 2019 pick vs. 2020 or 2021.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Potentially although I think it's also possible that they may see this draft as being mediocre and would rather lose their 2019 pick vs. 2020 or 2021.
I know people want the pick to roll over to 2021 because Memphis will have nothing... but they'll have JJJ and potentially 2 other top 5 picks. We are seeing how it can all come together quickly in Sacramento right now. In this league, one or two players makes all the difference in the world.

Not up to us, but I'd rather the pick convey this year.
 

BigSoxFan

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I know people want the pick to roll over to 2021 because Memphis will have nothing... but they'll have JJJ and potentially 2 other top 5 picks. We are seeing how it can all come together quickly in Sacramento right now. In this league, one or two players makes all the difference in the world.

Not up to us, but I'd rather the pick convey this year.
I hear you but this team is currently 19-24 with pretty much best case scenarios from a health standpoint of Gasol and Conley. Next year, those guys will be in their age 35 and 32 seasons, respectively. JJJ will likely be better but does adding a guy like Nassir Little, Kevin Porter, Romeo Langford etc. really change this team's trajectory next year? I wouldn't be upset about getting a pick in the 9-12 range this year but would prefer rolling the dice to try to get higher in 2020 or 2021. It's not going to be easy for this team to make the playoffs in the next 2 years. Teams like the Warriors, Nuggets, Rockets, Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, etc. are near locks. If the Clippers get Kawhi, they are too. Portland is still solid. Then you have upstarts like Sacramento, Dallas, etc.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I hear you but this team is currently 19-24 with pretty much best case scenarios from a health standpoint of Gasol and Conley. Next year, those guys will be in their age 35 and 32 seasons, respectively. JJJ will likely be better but does adding a guy like Nassir Little, Kevin Porter, Romeo Langford etc. really change this team's trajectory next year? I wouldn't be upset about getting a pick in the 9-12 range this year but would prefer rolling the dice to try to get higher in 2020 or 2021. It's not going to be easy for this team to make the playoffs in the next 2 years. Teams like the Warriors, Nuggets, Rockets, Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, etc. are near locks. If the Clippers get Kawhi, they are too. Portland is still solid. Then you have upstarts like Sacramento, Dallas, etc.
It's not necessarily about who they add but that never hurts. Going into this year, everyone was super confident the Kings would suck and Marvin Bagley wouldn't change that. Instead De'Andre Fox did. It only takes one player. JJJ is still 19 years old. It's very possible he is the player who changes the Grizzles trajectory and adding a lottery talent the next 2 years will only help that cause.

Hell, the Nets went from worst team in the NBA to potential playoff team in 2 years and they didn't even have the benefit of draft picks.
 

BigSoxFan

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It's not necessarily about who they add but that never hurts. Going into this year, everyone was super confident the Kings would suck and Marvin Bagley wouldn't change that. Instead De'Andre Fox did. It only takes one player. JJJ is still 19 years old. It's very possible he is the player who changes the Grizzles trajectory and adding a lottery talent the next 2 years will only help that cause.

Hell, the Nets went from worst team in the NBA to potential playoff team in 2 years and they didn't even have the benefit of draft picks.
It wasn't just Fox though. Hield has also been much better and Bogdanovic has been a great addition in FA. JJJ could play the Fox role but other people would have to accompany his improvements with the expected decline of Gasol/Conley.

I definitely acknowledge the potential downside of rolling the pick into 2020/2021 but even with their unexpected improvement, Sacramento and Brooklyn are still currently the 14th and 16th picks, respectively. Is there that much of a difference between those and the 9-12 range that MEM would be in if we get the pick? I'd rather gamble on a higher pick, especially with the lotto odds flattening out. The team with the 10th worst record still has a 14% chance at landing a top 4 pick.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It wasn't just Fox though. Hield has also been much better and Bogdanovic has been a great addition in FA. JJJ could play the Fox role but other people would have to accompany his improvements with the expected decline of Gasol/Conley.

I definitely acknowledge the potential downside of rolling the pick into 2020/2021 but even with their unexpected improvement, Sacramento and Brooklyn are still currently the 14th and 16th picks, respectively. Is there that much of a difference between those and the 9-12 range that MEM would be in if we get the pick? I'd rather gamble on a higher pick, especially with the lotto odds flattening out. The team with the 10th worst record still has a 14% chance at landing a top 4 pick.
That's true that the pick probably wouldn't be considerably worse in 2021.
 

mcpickl

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I know people want the pick to roll over to 2021 because Memphis will have nothing... but they'll have JJJ and potentially 2 other top 5 picks. We are seeing how it can all come together quickly in Sacramento right now. In this league, one or two players makes all the difference in the world.

Not up to us, but I'd rather the pick convey this year.
I think it's still buying a bit early on Sacramento.

They're better than expected but still have a negative point differential, only better than Phoenix and Memphis among Western Conference teams. I still think that's where they end up, third worst in the west.

We'll see about them in the next ten games. Six straight on the road and 3 of the next 4 after the road trip are home against Philly, San Antonio and Houston.

I'd peg them around 9th or so heading into the lottery.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think it's still buying a bit early on Sacramento.

They're better than expected but still have a negative point differential, only better than Phoenix and Memphis among Western Conference teams. I still think that's where they end up, third worst in the west.

We'll see about them in the next ten games. Six straight on the road and 3 of the next 4 after the road trip are home against Philly, San Antonio and Houston.

I'd peg them around 9th or so heading into the lottery.
It's not really buying in early. Going into the year, most of us were expecting the Kings pick to easily be in the top 5 and some were worried about it being 1. That is not going to be an issue.

As BSF pointed out though, even if things break right for Memphis, they are probably still going to be drafting in the low to mid teens. Best case scenario this year is 9th. The Kings pick sucks but I shouldn't have compared it to the Memphis pick because they aren't really comparable. The downsides aren't close to the same. Going from 2 to 9 is light years different than going 9th to 15th.
 

benhogan

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I think it's still buying a bit early on Sacramento.

They're better than expected but still have a negative point differential, only better than Phoenix and Memphis among Western Conference teams. I still think that's where they end up, third worst in the west.

We'll see about them in the next ten games. Six straight on the road and 3 of the next 4 after the road trip are home against Philly, San Antonio and Houston.

I'd peg them around 9th or so heading into the lottery.
I hope you're right. BUT being on the left coast I've watched a bunch of their games and the Kings look decent. They have 2 excellent 3pt snipers in Hield and Bjelica. The rest of the regular wings/guards, Shumpert, Fox, Bog & Jackson, are solid 3pt shooters. WCS and Bagley are OK down low. Joerger has them playing hard and they've lost some heartbreakers this season.

I could see them in the playoff picture the last month of the season. PLUS they have cap room to add talent and they have no incentive to tank this season (lack of a 1st round pick). They have played 4 extra games at home and they are 2-8 in their division, so we'll keep our fingers crossed and hope the point differential pythag catches up to them.
 

benhogan

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I hear you but this team is currently 19-24 with pretty much best case scenarios from a health standpoint of Gasol and Conley. Next year, those guys will be in their age 35 and 32 seasons, respectively. JJJ will likely be better but does adding a guy like Nassir Little, Kevin Porter, Romeo Langford etc. really change this team's trajectory next year? I wouldn't be upset about getting a pick in the 9-12 range this year but would prefer rolling the dice to try to get higher in 2020 or 2021. It's not going to be easy for this team to make the playoffs in the next 2 years. Teams like the Warriors, Nuggets, Rockets, Thunder, Lakers, Spurs, etc. are near locks. If the Clippers get Kawhi, they are too. Portland is still solid. Then you have upstarts like Sacramento, Dallas, etc.
Yikes. The WC is a beast and gets beastier if Kawhi goes to the Clippers. Agreed, I'd rather roll the dice and get the Memphis pick down the road. Heck, even the Suns will probably get one of Zion, BJ or Morant to add to Ayton/Warren/Booker.

Memphis future looks very grisly...
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yikes. The WC is a beast and gets beastier if Kawhi goes to the Clippers. Agreed, I'd rather roll the dice and get the Memphis pick down the road. Heck, even the Suns will probably get one of Zion, BJ or Morant to add to Ayton/Warren/Booker.

Memphis future looks very grisly...
Yes Yes and Yes. If we as fans “accept” say the 9th pick we are passing up a ton of upside with the pick in future years without giving up much downside as it isn’t very likely the Grizz are going to finish much worse than the #9 pick.

It’s low risk/high reward for us to carry this pick. Of course we don’t control any of it only speaking in terms of rooting interest.
 

TripleOT

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Sacto isn't making the playoffs. The Celtics will have to get lucky with the ping pong balls, or hit a home run with the 13th or 14th pick. There will be a race to the bottom for the non-playoff teams who control their number one pick, so the Kings, like the Lakers last season, have no tanking incentive.

Fox suffering a season ending injury is the best way for the odds for this pick to improve. Even if the bottom does fall out, they already have more wins that the Knicks, Suns, Cavs, and Bulls will probably get all season, at 23.

The Memphis pick not conveying probably has some trade value in the future, like the Nets pick had. Philly got a nice prospective haul for the 10th pick in the last draft, moving down six spots and getting a future first. If this does convey at 9-11 in 2019, Ainge can spin it into something.

It seems like the 3 later first rounders for a high first type trade is not in fashion anymore. If some team is at 4 in what's perceived as a three player draft, maybe they would rather stock their roster with three first rounders and increase their odds that one of them would break out, than invest in one player. Boston is going to barely have roster room or court time for even one first rounder.
 

Jimbodandy

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I agree with most of that, but some other posters have educated me on the last point. Celtics are almost certainly replacing two rotation players in Morris and Rozier this offseason. And Baynes could be gone too. Nevermind the chance that there are two rotation players leaving in an AD trade, which is possible.

They won't necessarily prefer to have 3-4 picks, but they won't necessarily go to waste either.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I agree with most of that, but some other posters have educated me on the last point. Celtics are almost certainly replacing two rotation players in Morris and Rozier this offseason. And Baynes could be gone too. Nevermind the chance that there are two rotation players leaving in an AD trade, which is possible.

They won't necessarily prefer to have 3-4 picks, but they won't necessarily go to waste either.
Adding 3-4 rookies to what we want to be a championship level team would be a short term waste as they would be mostly stapled to the bench but with the expanded rosters it gives us a greater chance to hit on a contributor down the road. We do have “replaceable” young players on the end of the bench that we could upgrade but I doubt it will be that many.
 

Jimbodandy

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Adding 3-4 rookies to what we want to be a championship level team would be a short term waste as they would be mostly stapled to the bench but with the expanded rosters it gives us a greater chance to hit on a contributor down the road. We do have “replaceable” young players on the end of the bench that we could upgrade but I doubt it will be that many.
Right there with you, but it's something that might end up happening.

I think most likely case is no white whale, three picks, and one is a stash or moved for future pick, and we end up with two rookies. Still not optimal.

Maybe one of TR or MM ends up as a S&T. I don't see a scenario where Kyrie signs and no big trade happens AND either of Morris/Rozier are still here. So there will be roster slots.

Edit: personally I'd like to see DA make a five quarters for a dollar trade, but what is it if not AD. KAT isn't going anywhere.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Right there with you, but it's something that might end up happening.

I think most likely case is no white whale, three picks, and one is a stash or moved for future pick, and we end up with two rookies. Still not optimal.

Maybe one of TR or MM ends up as a S&T. I don't see a scenario where Kyrie signs and no big trade happens AND either of Morris/Rozier are still here. So there will be roster slots.

Edit: personally I'd like to see DA make a five quarters for a dollar trade, but what is it if not AD. KAT isn't going anywhere.
Assuming no AD trade and 3-4 first rounders (or maybe even 2) I would look for Ainge to “help” one or even two lottery teams whose GM needs to improve the team quickly for job security purposes. Moving a pick in say the 15-20 range for a limited protected pick over the next two years would help the lottery team next year while likely increasing the overall value of the pick we’d receive in return.
 

mcpickl

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I hope you're right. BUT being on the left coast I've watched a bunch of their games and the Kings look decent. They have 2 excellent 3pt snipers in Hield and Bjelica. The rest of the regular wings/guards, Shumpert, Fox, Bog & Jackson, are solid 3pt shooters. WCS and Bagley are OK down low. Joerger has them playing hard and they've lost some heartbreakers this season.

I could see them in the playoff picture the last month of the season. PLUS they have cap room to add talent and they have no incentive to tank this season (lack of a 1st round pick). They have played 4 extra games at home and they are 2-8 in their division, so we'll keep our fingers crossed and hope the point differential pythag catches up to them.
This is true, but outside of the two teams already at the bottom of the west, it's unlikely anyone else in the conference is going to be tanking either. All the other teams are going to be fighting for the playoffs(assuming no West stud players get injured) outside of maybe Dallas, and they already have too many wins to have a significant chance of keeping their pick.

I'd be really surprised if Sacramento finished higher than 12th in the West. They may even finish behind a lottery East team or two, just because there are so many bad teams at the bottom of the East that the teams that finish 9th and 10th might pick up a couple extra wins, and the 8th seed is likely going to have a lousy record also, keeping the trash teams in the playoff race pretty late into the season.
 

BigSoxFan

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Clips lose 4th straight and 3rd straight at home. 9-13 since Dec. 1. With LeBron coming back soon and Sac playing well, this pick is in real peril. This is a team that really needs to make a trade.
 

ishmael

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Clips and Kings are actually both playing above their pythag at the moment. The real issue is that Utah woke up and is looking like the 50+ win team everyone expected before the season. If that continues and LeBron is healthy, it's hard to see the Clippers hanging on to that 8th slot all season...
 

BigSoxFan

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Clips and Kings are actually both playing above their pythag at the moment. The real issue is that Utah woke up and is looking like the 50+ win team everyone expected before the season. If that continues and LeBron is healthy, it's hard to see the Clippers hanging on to that 8th slot all season...
Yup. Will be tough for LAC to hang on without some injuries or a big acquisition.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Clips and Kings are actually both playing above their pythag at the moment. The real issue is that Utah woke up and is looking like the 50+ win team everyone expected before the season. If that continues and LeBron is healthy, it's hard to see the Clippers hanging on to that 8th slot all season...
I wrote about the Jazz a month ago. They didn’t just wake up.....they recovered from one of the worst scheduling beatdowns a team has had in the past decade. Their numbers do not account for the ridiculous travel and play schedule they were handed.

Donovan Mitchell in particular wa scrutinized for his poor shooting. In January with a normalized schedule this suddenly isn’t any longer a problem.
 

BigSoxFan

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It was a 2-point game with less than a minute in the first half when the Hornets scored 11 points in the final 50 seconds as Joerger stood and watched his team implode with his arms folded.
Nice. My check must have cleared. Meanwhile, OKC melting down in 2nd against LeBron-less Lakers. Cmon guys.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Nice. My check must have cleared. Meanwhile, OKC melting down in 2nd against LeBron-less Lakers. Cmon guys.
OKC hasn't even been pretending to compete defensively the past half dozen games and this teams identity early in the year WAS their defense.

Washington - 116
Minnesota - 119
San Antonio - 154 (2 OT, 130 in regulation)
San Antonio - 112
Atlanta - 142
Lakers (tonight) - 67 in 1st half.
 
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BigSoxFan

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OKC hasn't even been pretending to compete defensively the past half dozen games and this teams identity early in the year WAS their defense.

Washington - 116
Minnesota - 119
San Antonio - 154 (2 OT, 130 in regulation)
San Antonio - 112
Atlanta - 142
Lakers (tonight) - 67 in 1st half.
Yup. Nice 7 for 30 effort, Russell.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yikes. The WC is a beast and gets beastier if Kawhi goes to the Clippers. Agreed, I'd rather roll the dice and get the Memphis pick down the road. Heck, even the Suns will probably get one of Zion, BJ or Morant to add to Ayton/Warren/Booker.

Memphis future looks very grisly...
Warren has come a long way this season to where he's actually an asset. Going into the year, he was 79-279, .283 from 3 for his career. This year, he's currently 74-174, .423. The Suns are actually set up really nicely for the future. They only have Booker, Ayton, Warren, Bridges, Melton and Okobo on the books next year. If they can land a max guy, their entire outlook changes overnight. If they can add 2... that would be scary.
 

BigSoxFan

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Warren has come a long way this season to where he's actually an asset. Going into the year, he was 79-279, .283 from 3 for his career. This year, he's currently 74-174, .423. The Suns are actually set up really nicely for the future. They only have Booker, Ayton, Warren, Bridges, Melton and Okobo on the books next year. If they can land a max guy, their entire outlook changes overnight. If they can add 2... that would be scary.
Adding a max guy and then getting some lotto luck and adding someone in the Zion/Barrett/Morant group would make the Suns incredibly intriguing from a talent standpoint. With that said, I don't think any of the top guys will give them any real consideration.
 

bankshot1

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With last night's loss to the Warriors, the Clippers fell out of the money. And with a 4-game road trip they may dig themselves a little deeper into cashing a lottery pick.

I was (and still am) hoping the Celts would cash that one this year.
 

BigSoxFan

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With last night's loss to the Warriors, the Clippers fell out of the money. And with a 4-game road trip they may dig themselves a little deeper into cashing a lottery pick.

I was (and still am) hoping the Celts would cash that one this year.
Probably not happening this year. Need them to get Kawhi or Durant this summer.
 

bankshot1

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I'm hoping they can win the battle of LA, get the 8th seed in the west, Celt's get their 1st rounder (15), and LeBron and Magic sit courtside for the play-offs at the Staples Center.
 

BigSoxFan

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Hield buzzer beater on broken play where Zaza inexplicably stopped playing defense.

Fuck off, Zaza
 

BigSoxFan

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Double dribble cool cool Sacramento with bullshit win #infinity.
Yikes I didn’t watch it close enough. No wonder Detroit players got so confused. Likely doesn’t change much though. Won’t be easy for Sac to make playoffs and they’re too good to fall much lower.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Where was there a double dribble? He bobbled it, takes two steps and launches off balance.
The video at full speed doesn’t clearly capture the dribble once Hield gains possession. It went a) missed catch, b) slap at ball prior to gaining possession, and c) dribble prior to elevating for shot. The “c) dribble” is not clear as Reggie Jackson is screening the camera but it is visible in slow motion that Hield did dribble prior to stepping into his shot.
 

Eddie Jurak

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New Orleans beat Memphis too. 6 losses in a row for the Grizz. That pick is rolling over.
I've read that Memphis would like to convey the pick this year. While NBA rules don't give 2 shits about what Memphis would like to do, I do think they may choose to beat up on some taking teams as the season goes on in order to have the pick convey.
 

Ed Hillel

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I've read that Memphis would like to convey the pick this year. While NBA rules don't give 2 shits about what Memphis would like to do, I do think they may choose to beat up on some taking teams as the season goes on in order to have the pick convey.
I don’t understand, do you think they’re trying to lose? Why would they tank if they wanted the pick to convey? If they were good enough to beat teams, they’d beat them.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don’t understand, do you think they’re trying to lose? Why would they tank if they wanted the pick to convey? If they were good enough to beat teams, they’d beat them.
He means some teams will choose to tank later on while Memphis will still be trying to win. Those teams aren't trying to tank atm.

With how bundled up the west is, tanking may come very late this year for some teams. Others don't really have anything to gain by tanking because they have a good core together and want to build a winning culture. Then the Lakers and Wolves will be trying to win regardless. Pelicans too.
 

nighthob

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I've read that Memphis would like to convey the pick this year. While NBA rules don't give 2 shits about what Memphis would like to do, I do think they may choose to beat up on some taking teams as the season goes on in order to have the pick convey.
They probably would prefer to give up #9 this year rather than an unprotected ‘21 pick when they’re almost sure to suck.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’m pretty amazed by Memphis’ meltdown. They are like 6-20 since Dec 1. They clearly were due for some regression but I didn’t see this free fall coming given good health from Conley/Gasol.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m pretty amazed by Memphis’ meltdown. They are like 6-20 since Dec 1. They clearly were due for some regression but I didn’t see this free fall coming given good health from Conley/Gasol.
Memphis is one of my six Win Totals plays and I had their Under-34 marked as a loser a month ago.......I’ve since erased that L.
 

InstaFace

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I've read that Memphis would like to convey the pick this year. While NBA rules don't give 2 shits about what Memphis would like to do, I do think they may choose to beat up on some taking teams as the season goes on in order to have the pick convey.
If Memphis wants to make this year's (currently conditional) pick unprotected, in order to secure themselves the ability to trade future firsts because theirs are presently encumbered, I imagine Ainge would be happy to make a change to the terms.