2018-19 Offseason News, Rumors, Trades

MikeM

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May 27, 2010
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EDIT: I'd love to see the Red Sox somehow take advantage if he does have a soft market.
I've been viewing Grandal as a great potential roster fit here since last winter, but a soft enough market that sees the Sox being interested probably just ends up with him back in LA (fresh off a LT reset) for another 1-2 years while they give their kids more development time.
 

jon abbey

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Rosenthal says Brantley is close to signing with HOU for a deal in the 2/32 range. Wow, I expected him to get more, shaping up as another rough winter for a lot of FAs.
 

chawson

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I was especially curious where Brantley would sign since he fit the high bat-to-ball skill set that the Sox, Indians and Astros have shared the last few years — even, in the Sox case, across two different hitting coaches.
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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Angels sign Matt Harvey, 1/11.
Matt Harvey, last seen pitching effectively in 2015, and who had a second half worse than his first half in 2018, all in the pitcher-hitting NL, gets $11 million with $3 million in incentives, from an AL team; yet, Wilson Ramos, an everyday catcher with well above average offense for the position, only gets $9.5 million per for 2 years?

Baseball is one f’cked up labor market.

Are we sure someone at MLB.com didn’t misplace a decimal point? $1.1 million base with $3 million in fairly easily reachable incentives would make a lot more sense.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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It certainly fits the Angels approach of the last few years to building a pitching staff – collect 20 guys with upside to get 162 starts.

*
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Matt Harvey, last seen pitching effectively in 2015, and who had a second half worse than his first half in 2018, all in the pitcher-hitting NL, gets $11 million with $3 million in incentives, from an AL team; yet, Wilson Ramos, an everyday catcher with well above average offense for the position, only gets $9.5 million per for 2 years?

Baseball is one f’cked up labor market.

Are we sure someone at MLB.com didn’t misplace a decimal point? $1.1 million base with $3 million in fairly easily reachable incentives would make a lot more sense.
Are you, like, Wilson Ramos’ dad? Jesus he’s like your second Ellsbury.
 

Plympton91

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Are you, like, Wilson Ramos’ dad? Jesus he’s like your second Ellsbury.
No, lots of people who are still good baseball players have signed for less than $11 million this offseason.

This is a classic case New York media market premium right here. Going to enjoy seeing more of Artie Moreno’s money lit on fire though.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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No, lots of people who are still good baseball players have signed for less than $11 million this offseason.

This is a classic case New York media market premium right here. Going to enjoy seeing more of Artie Moreno’s money lit on fire though.
Who? Beyond Ramos who signed a bigger deal and also has an option? It’s a one year deal. On a guy that not too long ago was a top 20 pitcher. If you can get a guy like why wouldn’t you? You’re possibly right that Ramos should have gotten more or longer but for a one year flier, no, Harvey wasn’t signing for the equivalent of a taxi squad LOOGY. If he eats 160 innings at his numbers last year - which will no longer be in a band box - he’s well worth $11M. Moreno, agreed pisses money away, by this is a worthy flier.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Are you, like, Wilson Ramos’ dad? Jesus he’s like your second Ellsbury.
Do you think he doesn't have a valid point?

Harvey may have a potential upside, sure...but wishcasting shouldn't pay more than above-average consistency at valuable positions, I can agree with that.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Do you think he doesn't have a valid point?

Harvey may have a potential upside, sure...but wishcasting shouldn't pay more than above-average consistency at valuable positions, I can agree with that.
No, frankly I don’t. Upside is what you pay for on a one year deal for a risk it doesn’t pay out.

Would you rather sign Ryan Dempster five years ago for 2/$27 or Harvey for 1/$11? Sometimes you roll dice. And eating innings at replacement level costs more than being a decent catcher. That’s just how the economics work now. I’d rather pay Harvey to eat those innings for one season than what we signed Vazquez to.

As Theo said often, there’s no such thing as a bad one year deal.
 

hbk72777

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I would've place money on Oakland getting Harvey, but 11 million might have been too rich for their blood
 

jon abbey

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As Theo said often, there’s no such thing as a bad one year deal.
Not sure if I agree with this or not, but it was presumably at least one CBA ago.

As far as Ramos, I think public defensive metrics still don't do a great job with catchers or first basemen, so the defensive WAR part for those positions I tend to regard as a little suspect. That does seem like a solid deal for the Mets, but this is a tough market again for almost everyone, as plympton said:

"Baseball is one f’cked up labor market."

Now this I could not agree more with and is why I started the Baseball is Broken threads last year, and this reminds me to bump the (disgusting) labor market one, as payrolls actually went down a collective $115M in 2018.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2018/12/17/final-mlb-payrolls-for-all-30-teams-show-second-largest-decline-since-2004/#af75724e474a
 

OurF'ingCity

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EvilEmpire

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I'd sure as hell would rather have Ramos for two years at $19 than Harvey for one at $11. I agree that catching metrics are hard to assess, but I think there is a good chance that Ramos makes more of a positive impact on SP production than whatever Harvey provides.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I'd sure as hell would rather have Ramos for two years at $19 than Harvey for one at $11. I agree that catching metrics are hard to assess, but I think there is a good chance that Ramos makes more of a positive impact on SP production than whatever Harvey provides.
Yup. If part of your upside scenario for Harvey includes him "just eating innings" that's not a very rosy projection. Given his history he's no guarantee to even do that.
 

Plympton91

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Yup. If part of your upside scenario for Harvey includes him "just eating innings" that's not a very rosy projection. Given his history he's no guarantee to even do that.
And at what point does “upside” become “history”? When Harvey was good, he threw 99 mph. He’s never going to do that again. Hence, what’s the argument that there’s “upside” left? He is what he is. A guy who had a ERA around 5 for the past 3 seasons in the NL.

Looking deeper, there’s some good news in his Aug/Sept splits and xFIP. His K/9 moved back up to 9 and K/BB increased to over 4 those two months. That gave him an xFIP of 3.62 and FIP of 3.87 over those two months. So, maybe he’s learning to pitch in the low 90s finally.
 

Rough Carrigan

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And at what point does “upside” become “history”? When Harvey was good, he threw 99 mph. He’s never going to do that again. Hence, what’s the argument that there’s “upside” left? He is what he is. A guy who had a ERA around 5 for the past 3 seasons in the NL.

Looking deeper, there’s some good news in his Aug/Sept splits and xFIP. His K/9 moved back up to 9 and K/BB increased to over 4 those two months. That gave him an xFIP of 3.62 and FIP of 3.87 over those two months. So, maybe he’s learning to pitch in the low 90s finally.
Well, circa 2014, everyone thought that Verlander would never throw 98 again. But he does.
I think you're very likely correct. I just want to note that there's at least one precedent for a guy getting it back.
 

jon abbey

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Astros lose reliever Joe Smith, who ruptured an Achilles tendon working out last week, back in 6-8 months.
 

chawson

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If Britton goes to the Phillies and Ottavino to the Yankees is there an obvious landing spot for Kimbrel? Braves? Could see him coming back to the Sox in this scenario at less than what he wanted.
Atlanta is the obvious spot, I think.

If Britton goes to the Phillies I have no idea how they'll manage that bullpen. They'll have like nine viable late-inning guys.

This tweet is the first signal I’ve seen besides the Strickland non-tender that the Giants are sellers. Smith, Watson, or even Dyson could be interesting for the Sox.

 

chawson

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A’s getting Profar in a three-way deal with Texas and Tampa. The Rays get Emilio Pagan as their Sergio Romo replacement. Interesting offseason they’re having.
 

simplicio

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Miller to the cards for 2/25. There's a vesting third year option triggered at 110 appearances for 12m with a 2.5m buyout.
 

nattysez

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Hard to imagine what the Dodgers see in Bailey.

Never mind - looks like they're getting some quality young guys while opening a spot for Harper.

And Rosenthal now says LA will release Bailey .


 
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nvalvo

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Unless there’s another prospect in here for Cinci, I hate this deal for them.

(Edit: there is indeed more for them. Cash and Kyle Farmer, a young C/3B.)

Who in this deal will have positive value in a year when the Reds expect to contend?
 
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nvalvo

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No question their 2019 OF is much better, but this is the kind of move that will help them compete for third place in the NL Central.