AFC Playoff Watch: The Quest for the #1 seed

DeadlySplitter

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this could have been an epic disaster for a bye, but now they can lose @PIT, HOU loses one more, and they still get a bye at 11-5. Win @PIT and we have the bye for sure. (all this with the safe assumption we win the last two games against 4-9 NY trash at home - Miami bullshit they are not.)

where they play on January 23 if they get that far, it's all their fault if it's not at Foxboro if KC goes 13-3.
 

j-man

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u need balt to win the north haveing balt as a 6 seed if u are a 3 is trouble

looking at the 6 seed i think pitt goes 8-7-1

so indy 7-6 miami 7-6 and tenn 7-6
indy my 02 cents Dallas L NYG TOSS UP @ TENN TOSS UP 8-8
MIA @ MINN L JAX W @ BUFF TOSS UP 9-7
TENN @ NYG TOSS UP WASH W INDY TOSS UP 9-7

due to mia beating tenn in week 1 i like mia or tenn getting that 6 spot
 

DeadlySplitter

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and week 14 is in the books, so let me update my standings from last week.

1. KC 11-2 (SD, @SEA, OAK)
2. New England 9-4 (@PIT, BUF, NYJ)
3. Houston 9-4 (@NYJ, @PHI, JAX)
4. Pittsburgh 7-5-1 (NE, @NO, CIN)

5. LA Chargers 10-3 (@KC, BAL, @DEN)
6. Baltimore 7-6 (TB, @SD, CLE)

Indy 7-6 (DAL, NYG, @TEN)
Tennessee 7-6 (@NYG, WAS, IND)
Miami 7-6 (@MIN, JAX, @BUF)
Denver 6-7 (CLE, @OAK, SD)
Browns 5-7-1 (@DEN, CIN, @ BAL)

not that it matters much right now, but I checked the ESPN playoff machine for the tiebreaker at 7-6:

6th Seed - Baltimore
Wins tie break over Miami based on best win percentage in common games. Wins tie break over Indianapolis based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Tennessee (Indianapolis wins tie break over Tennessee based on head-to-head win percentage).
PIT will be fighting for their playoff lives much more than us next Sunday.
 

wilked

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538 has NE's odds of a bye at 80% (Hou at 20%). Even with a NE L next week and a HOU W, it still has NE at 54% for a bye.

all of which is to say, missed opportunity but not disaster thanks for the Texans and Steelers loss yesterday
 

dcmissle

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Mystic Merlin

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That has to terrify the NFL because LAC can’t fill that soccer stadium.

Imagine a partly empty stadium or visiting fans outnumbering LAC fans in a divisional round or conference title game?
 

DJnVa

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That has to terrify the NFL because LAC can’t fill that soccer stadium.

Imagine a partly empty stadium or visiting fans outnumbering LAC fans in a divisional round or conference title game?
Actually, I don't think the NFL would be all that upset if NE or Pittsburgh was there, because they'd rather have one of those teams making the Super Bowl over the LAC and having a non-hostile crowd wouldn't hurt.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Yeah, New England math is pretty straightforward here. Do at least as well as Houston and we beat them. Any combination of 2 NE wins and PIT losses beats PIT. Any combination of 2 NE wins and BAL losses beats Baltimore (I'm pretty sure we'd lose the Conference tiebreaker).

A three-way tie between NE/BAL/HOU at 10 wins might result in us 4th, but I'm not sure.
 
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lexrageorge

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If the Pats finish 10-6, then they are (a) not nearly as good as publicized; and (b) barely deserving of a playoff spot. The seeding discussion at that point would be largely academic, as they would almost certainly be 1-and-done.
 

SMU_Sox

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I think the thread should be renamed quest for a bye-week. #1 seed is a bit of a pipe dream at this point.

My question: can this defense show up on the road for one week and play well enough to win? Maybe even a solid but average effort?
 

54thMA

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Sounds like Lamar Jackson is remaining the starter in Baltimore despite Flacco's return to health.
Looks like the Jackson victory tour continues; they can always bring Flacco in if they are in a 3rd and long situation so he can heave a pass downfield to draw a DPI penalty for old times sake.
 

dcmissle

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Local coverage here:

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/bs-sp-ravens-qb-20181212-story.html

Flacco likely will go on to start for someone else next year. It’s Jackson’s team unless he gets hurt, or backslides, and I think the latter is unlikely. I really wanted the Pats to draft him. Both are handling this great. There’s a weird Bledsoe-Brady vibe about this. (No, I don’t expect the Ravens to win the SB; I think they’ll be fortunate to make the playoffs.)
 

j44thor

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If Wentz is shut down, which is probably better than 50/50 at this point, the HOU road to 12-4 gets a lot easier.
Pats probably need to win out to secure the bye.
 

DeadlySplitter

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some fun is back on the table with San Diego pulling off the upset, but KC is still in control of their destiny.

the first tiebreaker within a division when the two teams have split their two games is division record. Unfortunately the Chargers lost to the Broncos at home 23-22 earlier in the season, so they are firmly behind in this tiebreaker. that means while LAC has a chance at the 1 now, it's still not very high, most likely they will have to win out (BAL, @DEN) while KC loses @SEA next week, because KC has the OAK layup at home in week 17.

if I would be offered a deal to take us as the 2 seed if LA was the 1 seed, I'd take it without any hesitation. Go Seahawks...
 

Ed Hillel

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On a neutral field, I’d rather play KC than LA, honestly. Normally I’d much prefer to play in LA, but given a rookie QB and Reid’s home playoff woes, I’m not so sure I’d be excited about the prospect of playing LA at all. Assuming our shitty road D pisses away points like a drunken sailor, Brady will have a much easier time against KC’s woeful D than San Diego’s.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Rivers is much more likely to make dumb game-changing mistakes than Mahomes (saw that tonight). and crowd noise would be nowhere near a factor in LA

it's probably closer than I'm imagining but KC just has our number schematically for quite a few games in a row now
 

shawnrbu

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The Chargers could be 13-3 and play a road playoff game against an 8-7-1 Steelers team or 9-7 Ravens team they already beat while the Pats or Texans could earn a bye at 11-5.
 

BigSoxFan

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The Chargers could be 13-3 and play a road playoff game against an 8-7-1 Steelers team or 9-7 Ravens team they already beat while the Pats or Texans could earn a bye at 11-5.
Boo fucking hoo. In 2008, the 11-5 Pats missed the playoffs while the shitty 8-8 Chargers hosted a game.
 

mauidano

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Philip Rivers is arguably the best interview in the NFL. He has a photographic memory and is excitable. What more can you ask for?
 

DeadlySplitter

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one issue... Seattle might be locked into the 5 seed as soon as this week. how hard will they play afterwards leading up to the playoffs?
 

Groovenstein

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What happens if KC/NE/HOU/LAC all end up 12-4?
First you’d apply division tiebreaker to KC/LAC. They split head to head, so it’d go to division record. That likely goes to KC, as they just have to beat Oakland to capture it.

So then you’d be left with KC/HOU/NE. For home-field priority among division winners, use the Wild Card tiebreakers. That starts with a head to head sweep, which NE has, having beaten both KC and HOU.

Profit.
 

j44thor

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First you’d apply division tiebreaker to KC/LAC. They split head to head, so it’d go to division record. That likely goes to KC, as they just have to beat Oakland to capture it.

So then you’d be left with KC/HOU/NE. For home-field priority among division winners, use the Wild Card tiebreakers. That starts with a head to head sweep, which NE has, having beaten both KC and HOU.

Profit.
Yep I found the ESPN playoff scenario machine which is pretty cool.
What is even more interesting is that if KC is somehow 11-5 while the other 3 are 12-4 it says HOU ends up the 1, LAC the 2 and NE the 3.
The tears would be oh so delicious if NE ends up with the 1 seed courtesy of a KC win in week 17
 

Groovenstein

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If they all go 12-4 with KC somehow losing to Oakland, then it ends the same way.

If LAC beat Baltimore and lost to Denver, KC would win division based on division record.

If LAC beat Denver and lost to Baltimore, they’d tie on division record, but KC would win on common games. Both would have lost to LAR and defeated SF, Cle, Sea, Pit, Ari, and Cin, but KC beat Baltimore and LAC would have lost to them.

So basically if Pats, KC, and LAC all go 12-4, not only is Hou irrelevant, but the specific teams KC and LAC beat and lose to in the last two weeks are irrelevant.

The only other way the Pats could get the 1 seed is if they go 2-1, Hou goes no better than 2-1, and KC and LAC both go 0-2. In other words, not happening.

I guess it’s a problem with a clean solution. If the Pats win out and KC and LAC lose a game, the Pats are definitely the 1. If those three things don’t happen, they are definitely not the 1.
 

j44thor

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If they all go 12-4 with KC somehow losing to Oakland, then it ends the same way.

If LAC beat Baltimore and lost to Denver, KC would win division based on division record.

If LAC beat Denver and lost to Baltimore, they’d tie on division record, but KC would win on common games. Both would have lost to LAR and defeated SF, Cle, Sea, Pit, Ari, and Cin, but KC beat Baltimore and LAC would have lost to them.

So basically if Pats, KC, and LAC all go 12-4, not only is Hou irrelevant, but the specific teams KC and LAC beat and lose to in the last two weeks are irrelevant.

The only other way the Pats could get the 1 seed is if they go 2-1, Hou goes no better than 2-1, and KC and LAC both go 0-2. In other words, not happening.

I guess it’s a problem with a clean solution. If the Pats win out and KC and LAC lose a game, the Pats are definitely the 1. If those three things don’t happen, they are definitely not the 1.
NE has the tiebreaker over KC so if they are both 12-4 and KC wins the division NE ends up 1st seed.
 

54thMA

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On a neutral field, I’d rather play KC than LA, honestly. Normally I’d much prefer to play in LA, but given a rookie QB and Reid’s home playoff woes, I’m not so sure I’d be excited about the prospect of playing LA at all. Assuming our shitty road D pisses away points like a drunken sailor, Brady will have a much easier time against KC’s woeful D than San Diego’s.
Agreed.

Someone is going to have to splain to me why as a Patriots fan I should be afraid of the 0-6 in their last 6 home playoff games/coached by Andy Reid Chefs.

Sorry, I'm not feeling it.
 

BigSoxFan

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The Chargers are the most complete team in the AFC. They have a very good veteran QB, a talented WR corp, an elite RB in Gordon, and a very good defense. Give me KC without Hunt instead.
 

Ed Hillel

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The Chargers are the most complete team in the AFC. They have a very good veteran QB, a talented WR corp, an elite RB in Gordon, and a very good defense. Give me KC without Hunt instead.
Yeah, but wait until Belichick drops his TMZ video on Rivers.
 

JimD

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Seeing KC lose last night just pisses me off all over again about that clusterf*** of a play in Miami.
 

shawnrbu

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Agreed.

Someone is going to have to splain to me why as a Patriots fan I should be afraid of the 0-6 in their last 6 home playoff games/coached by Andy Reid Chefs.

Sorry, I'm not feeling it.
Because the Chiefs have only had two playoff home games with Reid (Steelers 2 years ago and Titans last year). The other losses were with Marty, Vermeil and Haley as Head Coach.
 

tims4wins

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Because the Chiefs have only had two playoff home games with Reid (Steelers 2 years ago and Titans last year). The other losses were with Marty, Vermeil and Haley as Head Coach.
Did you watch their 2015 road divisional against the Pats? Reid is a disaster in close games.

Edit: and I am a huge Reid fan. I'd take him #2 behind BB in the entire league
 

Red Averages

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Did you watch their 2015 road divisional against the Pats? Reid is a disaster in close games.

Edit: and I am a huge Reid fan. I'd take him #2 behind BB in the entire league
The Chiefs are a completely different team than 2015. That said they seem to be losing a ton of guys and it is showing in their play recently so they are less of a threat than they were a month ago.