Identifying the Issues

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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New threads are good, the mods say. So, ok here we go.

Two weeks in. A convincing win against what many people felt like was a playoff-caliber team in Houston, with a terrific defense and a dynamic young QB with playmakers on offense. And an ass-kicking by Jacksonville in 100 degree heat. Two weeks out of Edelman's four week suspension. Three guys get injured this week: Chung and Flowers with concussions, and Wise with some sort of arm or hand injury.

If BB sees the first four games as an extension of the preseason (which is something he's said), then he's using these games primarily to evaluate his team and identify the issues, with a long view in mind. Not that he's trying to lose games or whatever, but for him the value is longer-term than the immediate need to win that specific game.

So ok, this is an evaluation time against real competition. Through two games, what issues might he be seeing? If I'm in the role of telling him what I see, here's what I tell him:

1. Hightower needs to move to the Ninkovich role ASAP. He's way way WAY too slow to play linebacker anymore. Glacial. He was never a burner, but he looks like he's 90 years old out there. At DE, he doesn't need his speed so much. Right now that's the single worst contract on the team. I don't think they should cut him, but they could use some help on the end, especially if Wise is hurt for any extended period of time. Hightower is 6'3", 260. Ninkovich was 6'2", 260. Neither would be the biggest DE of course, but big enough to handle the job ok. And it would free Hightower up to not have to cover anyone.

2. I'd move Flowers inside on obvious passing downs. Let Clayborn and Hightower rush from the outside, and use Flowers to get penetration up the middle, something he's proven to be good at.

3. Linebacker still is a massive, massive problem. And I don't know what the solution is. I think Bentley is going to be a really good NFL linebacker, but obviously he's raw right now. Sam might have some promise but he's not ready. Van Noy is a cagey veteran who makes some plays, but also is pretty slow and gets burned a lot in passing situations. They just don't have any big-time players at LB right now, nobody with enough speed and coverage skills to handle coverage in the passing game. And teams will continue to shred them in that part of the field. But if they go with extra DBs to make up for it, they're getting pummeled in the run game. So it's a major, major problem. What's the solution? Well, there may not be one actually. Or they should make a trade. I don't know who might be available and what price makes sense, but this is going to be an ongoing problem for them unless Bentley, Sam, and Grigsby improve dramatically and suddenly.

4. The OL is beat up and losing Wynn really hurts. But they've faced two of the elite defensive fronts in all of football these first two weeks and for the most part they've held up pretty well. They've allowed 4 sacks and 9 QB hits in 74 pass attempts, which isn't too bad at all, especially considering the competition.

5. WR needs some help. Dorsett has been fine. Hogan had two TDs yesterday but hasn't done much on the whole. Now Jax has a great pass defense so it's no shame, but still. They are bringing Britt in today for another look and it wouldn't surprise me if they sign him. Patterson has been a waste. McDaniels looked SO pissed when Patterson fell down on that third and short reception, keeping him from getting a first down. So frustrating. And he's useless on kickoffs because teams don't allow him to get a return. They need to figure him out or let him go. The nice thing is that they're now halfway through the Edelman suspension, and getting him back will be huge. I know the Pats don't have the cap room, but one trade that would be great would be to acquire Fitzgerald and Chandler Jones from a horrible Arizona team and give them a 1st round draft pick in return. Of course, that's way too much money for them to take on but man that would help a lot.

6. On more of an NFL note, the new rules on the kickoff make it almost impossible to have an onside kick. They need a running start to make it doable. I wonder if they could tweak the rules so that if you want to line up five yards back in order to get a running start, you can, but then you HAVE to onside kick. The other team would know it's coming of course, but if you're down a touchdown with 30 seconds left, everyone on earth knows you're onside kicking anyway. The Pats probably would have liked to have onside kicked late in the Jax game but really, right now, it is basically impossible to pull off. And that means comebacks will be harder - something the NFL probably wants to look at.

7. Michel looked ok yesterday. Not dynamic, but not bad. One really nice run of 15, never got to show his stuff really (9 for 19 other than that run of 15). I think he'll be good, and I know they're easing him back into the mix. But Burkhead is banged up, Hill is on IR, Gillislee got released, and White isn't an every down back. So Michel needs to step it up ASAP.

8. Tom Brady still looks fantastic. In the Houston game he missed an open Burkhead on the double move very early in the game, and his long passes always seem to be out of reach (so why on earth throw deep on that third and five in the 3rd Q? ugh). But otherwise he looks sharp. With a depleted WR corps, going against two elite defenses, he's completing 67% of his passes, with 5 TD and 1 INT on a tipped ball. I had expected his numbers to be down during the first few weeks being without Edelman and the new pieces needing to be incorporated into the mix and going against two terrific defenses. I think we're about to see Tom Brady torch some people.

9. Back to the pass rush. It's anemic. Losing Flowers obviously hurt. Clayborn has gotten some upfield pressure, but loses his lane and allowed Bortles to scramble a few times, which hurt. They got a few sacks in game one but zip yesterday. And zip in the Super Bowl. Their coverage people just aren't good enough to hold up against even moderate level QBs when those guys have time to throw. They NEED to get pressure. Right now, that means blitzing. They did blitz some yesterday but it all got picked up by, let's face it, not a great OL that was missing its starting LT. That's a very discouraging sign. Chalk it up to the heat? I dunno. But man, they need to find a way to generate pressure. Try some exotic things, I don't know. But if they can't get pressure, teams are going to absolutely roast this defense in the passing game.

Lots of issues they need to work on, but on the whole, I'm not in any sense in panic mode. The schedule eases up a little and they should figure some things out. Edelman returns in a few weeks and that will help the offense. But now is the time to identify and fix the issues.
 

BigSoxFan

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Good thread. Defense is like 98% of my concern. The OL took a hit with Wynn but it’ll be fine if Cannon is ok.

Breaking down by unit...

DL: There is enough talent to have some upside here but on the whole, I doubt teams are too concerned about what we throw at them. And in games like yesterday where Flowers comes out, we are basically screwed. There is simply no consistency out of this group so their production changes on a weekly basis. Wise looked great Week 1 and then completely disappears yesterday. Clayborn is already pissing me off. Agree that it’d be worth moving Hightower to a more DE role now.

LB: I absolutely despise this unit. Hightower looks awful. There is no way to sugarcoat this. He may be done as an elite every down player. Van Noy is fine as a rotational LB but we’re asking for more than that, which is problematic. Fortunately, he has a little Nink in him and makes plays every now and then. I like Bentley and think we have something here. Everyone else? Meh. We still have no speed in this unit and it kills us. They can’t cover anyone. Teams know they can send guys over the middle for big gains. And I don’t know how you scheme this away.

CB: Gilmore good. Everyone else? Meh. Really is too bad that Dawson got hurt. No idea what he can provide but I certainly wanted to find out.

S: Still like this unit and they’re generally pretty solid but I do think age is starting to play a factor here. Jason McCourty needs to be cut soon. He offers the team absolutely nothing.
 

eddiew112

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Besides the glaring holes at LB, I think the biggest issue is the lack of a consistent interior pass rush. Whenever they got some pressure off the edge yesterday it didn't matter because Bortles could still step up into a clean pocket. Guy, Brown and Butler were much more disruptive in week 1.

Since he made the team, why not give Grigsby some reps at LB in passing situations?

Also, I don't want to see Geneo Grissom getting snaps on 3rd down again. Put Rivers in there and see if he can give you something.
 

j44thor

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Another reason to move HT to DL is run D. They were giving up the edge way too much yesterday and giving up contain on Bortles. HT probably can't rush the passer anymore but if he can just seal the edge that would be a huge upgrade. That series JAX had where they repeatedly ran off-tackle to the left was embarrassing. Granted JAX has a top OL but that was a backup LT in there and they still couldn't come close to stopping it.

I'd like to think HT is strong enough to set the edge against the run, if not I'm not sure there is a place for him in today's NFL.
 

lars10

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New threads are good, the mods say. So, ok here we go.

Two weeks in. A convincing win against what many people felt like was a playoff-caliber team in Houston, with a terrific defense and a dynamic young QB with playmakers on offense. And an ass-kicking by Jacksonville in 100 degree heat. Two weeks out of Edelman's four week suspension. Three guys get injured this week: Chung and Flowers with concussions, and Wise with some sort of arm or hand injury.

If BB sees the first four games as an extension of the preseason (which is something he's said), then he's using these games primarily to evaluate his team and identify the issues, with a long view in mind. Not that he's trying to lose games or whatever, but for him the value is longer-term than the immediate need to win that specific game.

So ok, this is an evaluation time against real competition. Through two games, what issues might he be seeing? If I'm in the role of telling him what I see, here's what I tell him:

1. Hightower needs to move to the Ninkovich role ASAP. He's way way WAY too slow to play linebacker anymore. Glacial. He was never a burner, but he looks like he's 90 years old out there. At DE, he doesn't need his speed so much. Right now that's the single worst contract on the team. I don't think they should cut him, but they could use some help on the end, especially if Wise is hurt for any extended period of time. Hightower is 6'3", 260. Ninkovich was 6'2", 260. Neither would be the biggest DE of course, but big enough to handle the job ok. And it would free Hightower up to not have to cover anyone.

2. I'd move Flowers inside on obvious passing downs. Let Clayborn and Hightower rush from the outside, and use Flowers to get penetration up the middle, something he's proven to be good at.

3. Linebacker still is a massive, massive problem. And I don't know what the solution is. I think Bentley is going to be a really good NFL linebacker, but obviously he's raw right now. Sam might have some promise but he's not ready. Van Noy is a cagey veteran who makes some plays, but also is pretty slow and gets burned a lot in passing situations. They just don't have any big-time players at LB right now, nobody with enough speed and coverage skills to handle coverage in the passing game. And teams will continue to shred them in that part of the field. But if they go with extra DBs to make up for it, they're getting pummeled in the run game. So it's a major, major problem. What's the solution? Well, there may not be one actually. Or they should make a trade. I don't know who might be available and what price makes sense, but this is going to be an ongoing problem for them unless Bentley, Sam, and Grigsby improve dramatically and suddenly.

4. The OL is beat up and losing Wynn really hurts. But they've faced two of the elite defensive fronts in all of football these first two weeks and for the most part they've held up pretty well. They've allowed 4 sacks and 9 QB hits in 74 pass attempts, which isn't too bad at all, especially considering the competition.

5. WR needs some help. Dorsett has been fine. Hogan had two TDs yesterday but hasn't done much on the whole. Now Jax has a great pass defense so it's no shame, but still. They are bringing Britt in today for another look and it wouldn't surprise me if they sign him. Patterson has been a waste. McDaniels looked SO pissed when Patterson fell down on that third and short reception, keeping him from getting a first down. So frustrating. And he's useless on kickoffs because teams don't allow him to get a return. They need to figure him out or let him go. The nice thing is that they're now halfway through the Edelman suspension, and getting him back will be huge. I know the Pats don't have the cap room, but one trade that would be great would be to acquire Fitzgerald and Chandler Jones from a horrible Arizona team and give them a 1st round draft pick in return. Of course, that's way too much money for them to take on but man that would help a lot.

6. On more of an NFL note, the new rules on the kickoff make it almost impossible to have an onside kick. They need a running start to make it doable. I wonder if they could tweak the rules so that if you want to line up five yards back in order to get a running start, you can, but then you HAVE to onside kick. The other team would know it's coming of course, but if you're down a touchdown with 30 seconds left, everyone on earth knows you're onside kicking anyway. The Pats probably would have liked to have onside kicked late in the Jax game but really, right now, it is basically impossible to pull off. And that means comebacks will be harder - something the NFL probably wants to look at.

7. Michel looked ok yesterday. Not dynamic, but not bad. One really nice run of 15, never got to show his stuff really (9 for 19 other than that run of 15). I think he'll be good, and I know they're easing him back into the mix. But Burkhead is banged up, Hill is on IR, Gillislee got released, and White isn't an every down back. So Michel needs to step it up ASAP.

8. Tom Brady still looks fantastic. In the Houston game he missed an open Burkhead on the double move very early in the game, and his long passes always seem to be out of reach (so why on earth throw deep on that third and five in the 3rd Q? ugh). But otherwise he looks sharp. With a depleted WR corps, going against two elite defenses, he's completing 67% of his passes, with 5 TD and 1 INT on a tipped ball. I had expected his numbers to be down during the first few weeks being without Edelman and the new pieces needing to be incorporated into the mix and going against two terrific defenses. I think we're about to see Tom Brady torch some people.

9. Back to the pass rush. It's anemic. Losing Flowers obviously hurt. Clayborn has gotten some upfield pressure, but loses his lane and allowed Bortles to scramble a few times, which hurt. They got a few sacks in game one but zip yesterday. And zip in the Super Bowl. Their coverage people just aren't good enough to hold up against even moderate level QBs when those guys have time to throw. They NEED to get pressure. Right now, that means blitzing. They did blitz some yesterday but it all got picked up by, let's face it, not a great OL that was missing its starting LT. That's a very discouraging sign. Chalk it up to the heat? I dunno. But man, they need to find a way to generate pressure. Try some exotic things, I don't know. But if they can't get pressure, teams are going to absolutely roast this defense in the passing game.

Lots of issues they need to work on, but on the whole, I'm not in any sense in panic mode. The schedule eases up a little and they should figure some things out. Edelman returns in a few weeks and that will help the offense. But now is the time to identify and fix the issues.
I think Edelman returning helps in a number of ways.. 1. obviously taking each WR and moving them down one to where they should be as a number 2, 3, etc. 2. It won't be as easy to double Gronk. 3. The offense should be able to stay on the field more and get the D some more rest which should help the rush and other fatigue related problems. Obviously that isn't a cure-all, but it should help improve play. Also, typically BB defenses have gotten better as the year has gone by. Tough to judge based on a fired up Jax team on the road two games into the season.
 

lexrageorge

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There is a saying that you're never as good as you look during a win. And you're never as bad as you look during a loss. That probably applies here to the defensive line, the one defensive unit that does have some young talent. Wise, Flowers, Brown, and Butler have all looked promising at times during their playing careers here; Keionta Davis did look good in the preseason. I'd like to see Derek Rivers get on the field; he really looked great during his first training camp before getting hurt, and he should be fully recovered from that injury by now. The Jax game could be simply the unit undergoing some early season growing pains, exacerbated by the problems elsewhere.

LB, however, is a different issue. Hightower could still be rounding into form after his injury; or he could have simply fallen off the cliff, which is not uncommon at this position; I still have nightmares of Adalius Thomas fruitlessly attempting to chase after opposing players in the defensive backfield in his final season here. I'm not sure there's an easy fix aside from getting the rookies some playing time and/or combing the waiver wire.

The secondary has my mildly concerned, in that I do cringe at whomever's name is posted opposite Gilmore at corner. And their starting safeties are aging. But, unlike the linebackers, I do see the possibility for organic improvement as the season progresses.

Offensively, they are thin right now. While hope is not a strategy, the best strategy does seem to be wait until some of their players return to health (Burkhead, Michel) or from suspension. Even the league's best offenses occasionally put up 2 or 3 quarters like the Pats did against Jax.

Bottom line: LB is a real issue, and the fixes are not obvious right now.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Well getting help at WR was on my list. Glad BB is paying attention to SoSH!

Now Bill, about those other things....
 

Jimbodandy

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There is a saying that you're never as good as you look during a win. And you're never as bad as you look during a loss. That probably applies here to the defensive line, the one defensive unit that does have some young talent. Wise, Flowers, Brown, and Butler have all looked promising at times during their playing careers here; Keionta Davis did look good in the preseason. I'd like to see Derek Rivers get on the field; he really looked great during his first training camp before getting hurt, and he should be fully recovered from that injury by now. The Jax game could be simply the unit undergoing some early season growing pains, exacerbated by the problems elsewhere.

LB, however, is a different issue. Hightower could still be rounding into form after his injury; or he could have simply fallen off the cliff, which is not uncommon at this position; I still have nightmares of Adalius Thomas fruitlessly attempting to chase after opposing players in the defensive backfield in his final season here. I'm not sure there's an easy fix aside from getting the rookies some playing time and/or combing the waiver wire.

The secondary has my mildly concerned, in that I do cringe at whomever's name is posted opposite Gilmore at corner. And their starting safeties are aging. But, unlike the linebackers, I do see the possibility for organic improvement as the season progresses.

Offensively, they are thin right now. While hope is not a strategy, the best strategy does seem to be wait until some of their players return to health (Burkhead, Michel) or from suspension. Even the league's best offenses occasionally put up 2 or 3 quarters like the Pats did against Jax.

Bottom line: LB is a real issue, and the fixes are not obvious right now.
This is a great post.

The pass rush stuff--while infuriating in its persistence from last year--seems fixable. I saw a lot of drift from their assignments. Contain wasn't optimal, but it was more about going too far upfield or too wide. That's coachable and not entirely unsurprising.

Secondary looked bad a few times, but that's likely also fixable.

The linebackers are still a big problem. Their whole area is wide open to crosses by anyone. Nobody can cover, and nobody can tackle. Van Noy stands out just by not sucking as bad as the others. Bentley should get smarter over time, but I have no hope of anything else. Bill needs to run more safeties.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Using sacks as a guide (yes I know it's incomplete, but it does tell us *something* anyway), here's where NE has ranked in sacks:

2001 - 15th (41)
2002 - 20th (34)
2003 - 6th (41)
2004 - 3rd (45)
2005 - 23rd (33)
2006 - 5th (44)
2007 - 2nd (47)
2008 - 14th (31)
2009 - 23rd (31)
2010 - 14th (36)
2011 - 14th (40)
2012 - 15th (37)
2013 - 5th (48)
2014 - 13th (40)
2015 - 2nd (49)
2016 - 16th (34)
2017 - 7th (42)

Avg - 11.6 (39.6)

I wouldn't say that the lack of a pass rush "persists year to year". I'd say it fluctuates considerably during the BB era. As good as 2nd in the league in sacks to as bad as 23rd. Again, I know pass rush is much more than sacks but it's not easy finding "QB pressure" stats year to year so I can't really make that broader assessment. So just sticking with sacks as at least a baseline guide, here's the sack totals in Brady's playoff losses:

2006 loss to Denver - 2 sacks, 7 yards, 197 passing yards, 27 points
2007 loss to Indy - 3 sacks, 19 yards, 349 passing yards, 38 points
2008 loss to NYG - 3 sacks, 8 yards, 255 passing yards, 17 points
2010 loss to Bal - 0 sacks, 0 yards, 34 passing yards, 33 points
2011 loss to NYJ - 0 sacks, 0 yards, 194 passing yards, 28 points
2012 loss to NYG - 3 sacks, 14 yards, 296 passing yards, 21 points
2013 loss to Bal - 2 sacks, 5 yards, 240 passing yards, 28 points
2014 loss to Den - 0 sacks, 0 yards, 400 passing yards, 26 points
2016 loss to Den - 3 sacks, 31 yards, 176 passing yards, 20 points
2018 loss to Phi - 0 sacks, 0 yards, 374 passing yards, 41 points

Avg - 1.5 sacks, 5.8 yards, 251.6 passing yards, 28.0 points

I don't really know that I see a huge correlation between passing yards, points, and sacks. The most points scored against the Pats over these ten games were:

41 points by Phi - 0 sacks, 374 pass yards
38 points by Indy - 3 sacks, 349 pass yards
33 points by Bal - 0 sacks, 34 pass yards (what an anomaly that game was)
28 points by NYJ - 0 sacks, 194 pass yards
28 points by Bal - 2 sacks, 240 pass yards

The games with the most sacks were:

3 sacks vs Den - 20 points, 176 pass yards
3 sacks vs NYG - 21 points, 296 pass yards
3 sacks vs NYG - 17 points, 255 pass yards
3 sacks vs Ind - 38 points, 349 pass yards

On the flip side, here were the games with zero sacks:

0 sacks vs Bal - 33 points, 34 pass yards
0 sacks vs NYJ - 28 points, 194 pass yards
0 sacks vs Den - 26 points, 400 pass yards
0 sacks vs Phi - 41 points, 374 pass yards

So I don't know. Intuitively it feels like if you don't get pressure on the QB he will kill you. And what all this probably means is that QB pressures and hits ultimately impact the opponent's passing success to a FAR greater degree than actual sacks do. I just wish there was an easy way to track that year to year. If anyone knows where those numbers are, let me know. Google isn't being very helpful to me on that.
 

BaseballJones

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Hoo boy. Last week, you chalk it up mainly to Jacksonville being a good team, playing at home, in the biggest game of their 2018 schedule. Then Jax goes out and puts up a whopping 6 points at home to Tennessee, while the Patriots go into Detroit - a team that had allowed 48 and 30 points in their first two games, a team that lost 48-17 to the New York Jets on opening day - and get absolutely manhandled 26-10. This wasn't a game of bad breaks or weird bounces. This was a straight-up ass kicking by Detroit, right from word go.

First downs: NE 12, Det 25
Total plays: NE 47, Det 70
Total yards: NE 209, Det 414
Time of poss: NE 20:45, Det 39:15

Basically, Detroit was twice as good as the Patriots were yesterday. How unbelievably discouraging is THAT? And again, we can't blame bad bounces or crappy officiating. This was simply one team dominating the other - something that almost never happens to the Patriots.

The linebacking issues are even more glaring. They literally cannot cover anyone. The one nice play they had on pass defense was the Bentley pick, and that was a nice play for sure, but if Stafford lofts the ball it's a touchdown - the guy had Bentley beat by a couple of yards. Otherwise, they cannot cover anyone.

Gilmore allowed that one play that probably was just a miscommunication with the safety. Otherwise he was good. Stafford is a pretty solid quarterback, but only threw for 262 yards, so it wasn't like he went bonkers. It was a classic "bend but don't break" defense that allowed a TON of time of possession, and allowed Detroit to systematically move down the field for scores.

But honestly, the real problem in this game was the offense. 10 points against a bad defense. Just 47 total plays and less than 21 minutes TOP. TWELVE(!?!?) first downs? The first three series were three and outs and they couldn't gain a needed yard on the ground to save their lives. Look, not having Edelman is obviously a major issue for this team, but they DID make it to the Super Bowl last year without him. It's discouraging how badly the OL run blocks.

I didn't have a problem (well, too much of a problem) with Michel. He seemed fine. He didn't have much room to run and a few times he squeezed extra yards when he was able. A drop or two didn't help. He seems to me like he will be a solid NFL running back. But therein lies the criticism. This is really for another thread, but we will be able to criticize that draft selection forever, I believe. Not because Michel won't turn out to be a solid player, but because the had other HUGE needs, they proved they could win without drafting a RB that high, and they drafted Michel because they believed he was a superlative talent and I just don't know if he's that. So it seems like a waste of a high draft pick. And I don't know what it will take to change my mind on that.

The sad thing about that is that most of us on this board liked Michel from a talent standpoint. It's just that...man...they could have gotten another guy who would be solid, MUCH later in the draft. Or as a UDFA. I don't think he's a game changer is all. White should be getting more snaps than Michel.

For the time being, I believe the Patriots should be throwing throwing throwing throwing throwing. The OL does fine in pass protection. When Edelman and Gordon are on board, with White in the backfield, the offense should start to roll. Unfortunately, there's another week without Edelman at least.

The postmortem here is gonna rightfully be brutal. This week's game against Miami absolutely feels like a must-win. They could get blown out again. But I have a feeling they're going to come up big.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’ve mentioned it in other places but read Darius Leonard’s draft profile imagine how much more useful that skill set would be on this team than Michel’s.
 

dcmissle

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Seems to me we are in reboot and rebuild territory. The next three weeks bring home games, 2-1 would stabilize the season, anything less would point us to 2019 and beyond. And right now, the KC game looks like the wrong side of a track meet, so there is little margin for error.

In any case, rebuild begins in 4 months if not sooner. Roster degradation has taken its toll.
 

EL Jeffe

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The Patriots have 3 of the top 30 paid RBs in the NFL for the 2018 season:

  • James White, 18th
  • Rex Burkhead, 25th
  • Sony Michel, 30th
What exactly had Rex Burkhead done to earn a 3 year, $9.75m contract? Who were they bidding against? He was coming off a 64 carry, 30 catch season. He's a decent rotational back, but he's the definition of fungible. James White is a very good receiving back, but a well-below average runner. His contract isn't a killer thanks to his passing value, but he's still overpaid as a RB who's only good for about 600 yards from scrimmage per season. Sony Michel has a degenerative knee condition and looks like the definition of a JAG back; 1st round pick.

With the new kickoff rules, do guys like Ebner, King, Grigsby and Slater still have the roster space value in today's NFL? Dressing 3 WRs - you're telling me all four ST guys have more roster value than a legitimate 4th WR like Coleman/Britt/Live Body (whether or not Coleman can play, who knows - but it'd be nice to at least line up 4WR-wide).

There's a lot of roster management decisions made lately that I just don't understand. It's been a run of NFL dominance that I can't imagine any of us will ever see again in our lifetimes - and maybe it's not fully over - so I'm not complaining. I've thoroughly enjoyed the ride and it was never going to last forever. But there's been some self-inflected wounds that are a bit puzzling.
 

Harry Hooper

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With the new kickoff rules, do guys like Ebner, King, Grigsby and Slater still have the roster space value in today's NFL? Dressing 3 WRs - you're telling me all four ST guys have more roster value than a legitimate 4th WR like Coleman/Britt/Live Body (whether or not Coleman can play, who knows - but it'd be nice to at least line up 4WR-wide).

There's a lot of roster management decisions made lately that I just don't understand. It's been a run of NFL dominance that I can't imagine any of us will ever see again in our lifetimes - and maybe it's not fully over - so I'm not complaining. I've thoroughly enjoyed the ride and it was never going to last forever. But there's been some self-inflected wounds that are a bit puzzling.
There was at least one play last night where Dwayne Allen was lined up split wide left. What was he supposed to accomplish from there?
 

lexrageorge

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The roster appears to be dying the death of a thousand cuts. Free agent losses and draft day busts have piled up, and suddenly we see the cliff. From the past 5 drafts, we have the following players on the active roster:

James White
Malcolm Brown
Geneo Grissom
Trey Flowers (injured)
Shaq Mason
Joe Cardona
Cyrus Jones
Joe Thuney
Vincent Valentine
Elandon Roberts
Ted Karras
Derek Rivers
Deatrich Wise
Sony Michel
Ja'Whuan Bentley
Christian Sam
Keion Crossen

These are the drafts that should have produced players that are the core of the roster. Outside perhaps of White, Wise and Flowers, none of them scream difference makers. Mason and Thuney were interior stalwarts last year, so hopefully they'll improve as the season goes on. That Wynn injury really hurts right now (and will unfortunately probably continue to hurt in future seasons).

At this point, it's hard to see any future Pro Bowlers on that list. Only Brown, Michel, and Cyrus Jones are from the top 2 rounds, which is where you hope to find your future Pro Bowlers. Six of those players are from rounds 5-7; it's sort of the one bright spot in that at least the Pats were able to find a fair share of backups and special teamers from those rounds, but that success alone is not enough to return to the AFCCG, never mind the Super Bowl. Now the veterans have either retired or left via FA or simply gotten old, and here we are.

Before we totally throw Belichick the draftnik under the bus, we must acknowledge that the Pats first round picks over this period were mostly glorified second rounders due to their consistently picking in the 30's. And for those saying the loss of a first rounder in 2016 shouldn't matter, I will point out that Myles Jack, Emmanuel Ogbah, Chris Jones, Xavien Howard, Noah Spence, Derrick Henry, or Sterling Shepard would probably be contributing to this team right about now.

We can only hope we are not over the cliff already. Edelman will return; Gordon will have another week of practice, and another week to heal the hamstring. Michel is in a difficult situation after missing most of training camp and essentially having to be the starter due to Burkhead's injury. Or he could simply be a bust; I'd say we don't know yet, but there's not a lot of time left to find out. The offense is still probably fixable. The LB crew is a problem, and so far it's been enough of a problem to make the rest of the defensive units look really bad.

EDIT: Forgot that Sam is on IR.
 
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Kliq

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Ugh, thinking about Myles Jack on this team is just another reason to get mad about Deflategate.
 

DourDoerr

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I'd say injuries (and, of course, the Edelman suspension) are the #1 issue right now and offer some hope for the season going forward as players hopefully return to health. Lack of pass rush = loss of best pass rusher. Lack of run D = loss of best strong safety.

That's simplifying it of course, but plugging in inferior players into a D that already seemed to have LB issues, will most likely garner the results we've seen so far. Add to that the adjustment period of new players learning how to play within the system on the fly (I think the biggest issue on the DL) and here we are. There's a good chance that this turns around to a defense that at least competes.
 

ManicCompression

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I wonder if Patricia having intimate knowledge of the roster, the defense, and BB’s tendencies contributed to how bad this looked. I’m reminded of McDaniels’ first season in Denver and the pats 20-17 loss to them amidst the Broncos 6-0 start (in a year the Pats were a top ranked offense). Yes, the Pats clearly have some problems to sort out, but it’s also possible that they’re compounded by Patricia’s experience with the Pats. There’s only so much you can do to disguise the weaknesses of Van Noy, Hightower, McCourty etc when you’re the facing the guy who coached them for years.
 

BigSoxFan

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I wonder if Patricia having intimate knowledge of the roster, the defense, and BB’s tendencies contributed to how bad this looked. I’m reminded of McDaniels’ first season in Denver and the pats 20-17 loss to them amidst the Broncos 6-0 start (in a year the Pats were a top ranked offense). Yes, the Pats clearly have some problems to sort out, but it’s also possible that they’re compounded by Patricia’s experience with the Pats. There’s only so much you can do to disguise the weaknesses of Van Noy, Hightower, McCourty etc when you’re the facing the guy who coached them for years.
I think the weaknesses of the Pats' personnel are well-known to every NFL coach by now.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I think it's really a combo of things others have mentioned here:

1. The overall talent is impacted by weaker drafts, cost of keeping the core intact, etc. There is, arguably, either one or zero plus defensive players on the roster right now based on 2018 performance---that's just not enough. There is not enough active receiving talent to pressure a defense (at least there help is visible).

2. The LBs continue to be a weakness and teams are recognizing the ways to stretch them horizontally and take advantage of it. I still wonder if part of the answer here in part is more 'big nickel' kinds of looks, but we'll have to see.

3. There's coaching up to be done. I will be very surprised if they line/OLBs aren't able to set the edge on the line by, say, week 10. But right now it is not happening consistently. Ditto on run fits, where they are getting gashed somewhat regularly. This kind of thing has happened to Pats early the last few years and always been cleaned up. Even with talent/roster questions I expect it will be again

4. The offense is a little bit identify-less right now. Again, that is something that will be fixed but in the very short-term I think we're seeing more running than many imagined/would like (with less effectiveness), and fewer downfield plays. I think this will be worked through as they decide what they have in Michel, Gordon, etc. and as they get a little healthier/Edelman returns.
 

Michelle34B

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Celebrating what is: Belichick and Brady have had an indescribable amount of focus to continue being successful in an era which demands constant roster changes.

They seem to keep getting less depth at OL. They'll only go as far is it takes them, especially at tackle.

Celebrating what is: The last time the Patriots were 1-2(2014), they won the Super Bowl.
 

heavyde050

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I am just hoping the 2018 Pats can get to the same 2-2 record as the 2014 Pats.
I am also hoping the 2014 Dynasty over loss to KC came a week earlier in 2018.
 

SMU_Sox

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Short term on the offense: If Gordon, Jacob Hollister, Edelman, can give a boost to the receivers, Michel gets acclimated, and the O-Line and blocking TEs play better I could see the offense rebounding a bit. That's a lot of ifs but I expect the line and Allen to play better. I don't know what to expect from the other skilled position players although I would also expect some improvement there just getting people back and Michel having time to develop. I don't think they have the personnel to be record setting but they should have an OK group.

Defensively getting Flowers and Chung back helps but the lack of depth behind Chung is problematic and their front 7 is a disaster. On paper you expect guys like Shelton and Brown to at least be average players and, again on paper, above average against the run. I don't know if they even have the personnel to succeed against more modern offenses (read: spread em out). Bentley, Van Noy, and High see repetitive at LB. Not enough speed. I don't know what to make of the DTs and why they suck. I am not sure what the short term fix is here if the front 7 can't win individual matchups.
 

BaseballJones

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If Edelman, Hollister, and Gordon give them a boost, Michel gets acclimated, and the OL blocks better, the offense won’t just “rebound a bit”. They’ll average 32 points a game.
 

dcmissle

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Short term on the offense: If Gordon, Jacob Hollister, Edelman, can give a boost to the receivers, Michel gets acclimated, and the O-Line and blocking TEs play better I could see the offense rebounding a bit. That's a lot of ifs but I expect the line and Allen to play better. I don't know what to expect from the other skilled position players although I would also expect some improvement there just getting people back and Michel having time to develop. I don't think they have the personnel to be record setting but they should have an OK group.

Defensively getting Flowers and Chung back helps but the lack of depth behind Chung is problematic and their front 7 is a disaster. On paper you expect guys like Shelton and Brown to at least be average players and, again on paper, above average against the run. I don't know if they even have the personnel to succeed against more modern offenses (read: spread em out). Bentley, Van Noy, and High see repetitive at LB. Not enough speed. I don't know what to make of the DTs and why they suck. I am not sure what the short term fix is here if the front 7 can't win individual matchups.
Several here have made the bolded point since the last SB, and earlier, and no one has persuasively rebutted it.

Belichick the Younger would look at this situation and shake his head. Pitiful, helpless giant.
 

Pandemonium67

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Agreed with the above. If everything breaks the right way (and that's a handful of ifs), the O will be very good and maybe a powerhouse. It's easy to forget that it's anchored by two sure-fire HOFers.

If everything breaks the right way for the D, on the other hand, it still might not get to adequate. I think the D could become good enough to stop mediocre O's well enough for the Pats to outscore them, but I shudder to see what the Chiefs or other top-notch teams would do against them. Well, I guess we saw exactly that in the SB.
 

Super Nomario

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If Edelman, Hollister, and Gordon give them a boost, Michel gets acclimated, and the OL blocks better, the offense won’t just “rebound a bit”. They’ll average 32 points a game.
There have been only 15 offenses in the history of the NFL that have averaged 32 points per game over an entire season. This Pats dynasty has done it four times, but not since 2012 (peak Gronk / Hernandez).
 

BaseballJones

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There have been only 15 offenses in the history of the NFL that have averaged 32 points per game over an entire season. This Pats dynasty has done it four times, but not since 2012 (peak Gronk / Hernandez).
Fine. Call it 31.9 points per game. :)
 

j-man

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from the outside looking in brady is slowing decineing just inch by inch u only have 1 weapon in the pass game even when 11 comes back it will take 2-3 weeks to get back to hisseif Gordon will catch a TD or 2 but he is very inconsistent overall

even if u go 11-5 i cant see u winning in KC or Jax in jan and if miami wins the div no way ne wins 3 road games in jan
 

j-man

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and KC looks like a 14-2 team right now so for u to get homefield u have to win out or at the very least win 10 in a row
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Not sure the defense can be repaired given the personnel...Shelton and Brown simply have to play better, as they are not close to controlling the LOS. One thing that has happened on offense this season is much more predictabilty, partially due to the lack of weapons, but not totally. Running and passing formations are much more obvious, Allen never gets a pass...Develin in the backfield...wonder what that means? If Michel is on the field means he is getting the ball. I assume that changes quickly.
 

Saints Rest

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I believe that the defense's issues begin and (mostly) end with stopping the run. Same issue as last year.

When 1st and 1 becomes 2nd and 3 every damn time, then the defense is fucked on 2nd and (when rarely necessary) 3rd downs. There's a reason that the fundamental principle of football defense has been "Stop the Run." 2nd and 7 is a vastly different situation than 2nd and 3. On the former, in today's NFL, that's a passing situation; the latter is "anything is possible, the playbook is wide open."

BB's strength has long been acknowledged to take away a team's strength. But when you are sitting 2nd and 2, you can't do that. Rushers can't pin their ears back; safeties and LB's can't drop into coverage; CB's can't put 100% of their focus on the WRs.

The Pats have enough talent to get pressure to the QB, in my opinion, but only when the opposite set of conditions exist: Rushers their ears back; safeties and LB's drop into coverage; CB's put 100% of their focus on the WRs.

As it stands today, even when the Pats can make a rare first down stop, the other team knows it can still turn 2nd and 8 into 3rd and 1 with any play in their arsenal. Same thing on a 3rd and 5. Every team can be unpredictable in almost any situation against the Pats simply because the Pats can't stop the run. And that means that the Pats passing defense looks awful and puts up no pressure on the QB.
 

EL Jeffe

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Another roster management issue that made zero sense was the safety situation this offseason. It was abundantly clear that another NFL-caliber safety was needed, and Kenny Vaccaro was just sitting out there waiting to be signed. Instead, the Patriots inexplicably decided to sign Eddie Pleasant, a complete and utter JAG. Vaccaro later signed a cheap 1 year/$1.5m contract with Tennessee (playing a similar scheme with Vrabel coaching). Vaccaro has started all three games in TN, with 15 tackles and a pick.

With Chung hurt, Vaccaro would have been an ideal plug-in. He would have also allowed them to go back to a Big Nickel type D to get more speed on the field. Going with Eddie F'ing Pleasant over a talented guy like Vaccaro will never make any sense to me.
 

BigSoxFan

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Kansas City has won the September Super Bowl for a couple years running now. Let's see them sustain it throughout the season.
Chief's next 5 games:

@ Broncos
Jaguars
@ Patriots
Bengals
Broncos

We'll know a lot more about this team in a few weeks.
 

BaseballJones

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Another roster management issue that made zero sense was the safety situation this offseason. It was abundantly clear that another NFL-caliber safety was needed, and Kenny Vaccaro was just sitting out there waiting to be signed. Instead, the Patriots inexplicably decided to sign Eddie Pleasant, a complete and utter JAG. Vaccaro later signed a cheap 1 year/$1.5m contract with Tennessee (playing a similar scheme with Vrabel coaching). Vaccaro has started all three games in TN, with 15 tackles and a pick.

With Chung hurt, Vaccaro would have been an ideal plug-in. He would have also allowed them to go back to a Big Nickel type D to get more speed on the field. Going with Eddie F'ing Pleasant over a talented guy like Vaccaro will never make any sense to me.
Eric Reid is 26 and is a quality NFL safety, and he's a free agent. Yeah the whole anthem thing, whatever. Could the Patriots use him? Absolutely.
 

axx

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I hate to say this, but they really need something out of Josh Gordon.They picked a bad time to replay 2006.

The defense is probably unfixable at this point, but they got to the SB last year with a bottom 5 defense.
 

j-man

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Kansas City has won the September Super Bowl for a couple years running now. Let's see them sustain it throughout the season.
i want u to be right but mahomes is almost a young brett farve hunt is a 1'350 y rusher hill is a top 8 WR Watiks is a top 20 wr in that off their te is the best te in the nfl even through he is a butthole

yes they might gag but they feel a lock for 13-14 wins
 

shoosh77

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i want u to be right but mahomes is almost a young brett farve hunt is a 1'350 y rusher hill is a top 8 WR Watiks is a top 20 wr in that off their te is the best te in the nfl even through he is a butthole

yes they might gag but they feel a lock for 13-14 wins
Hold up, I think you mean the best TE outside of Gronk.
 

genoasalami

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Brady is 41 and is stuck throwing to Gronk and a bunch of stiffs. Even Fitzpatrick has Howard, Evans, Goodwin, Jackson, Brate ....Better hope Edelman comes back strong and they get some production out of Gordon.
 

RedOctober3829

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i want u to be right but mahomes is almost a young brett farve hunt is a 1'350 y rusher hill is a top 8 WR Watiks is a top 20 wr in that off their te is the best te in the nfl even through he is a butthole

yes they might gag but they feel a lock for 13-14 wins
Their defense is as bad or worse than the Patriots defense is. Let's see if they can keep this offensive pace up through 16 plus games.
 

Super Nomario

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On the Ross Tucker Football Podcast, Greg Cosell was saying that the Lions on third down played with seven DBs, doubling Gronk with a CB and S and putting CB/S hybrid Quandre Diggs on James White after an edge rusher chucked him (the "bullseye" strategy the Patriots used against Marshall Faulk in SB 36). Basically, they dared the Pats to beat them with Hogan, Dorsett, and / or whoever the fifth "skill" guy was, obviously those guys couldn't do it. Of course, early down ineffectiveness putting them in these third down situations was an issue, too.