What evidence is there for this? (I think both Devers and Nunez are locks for the roster; I just haven't seen any suggestion that Cora doesn't think highly of Devers.)
Red Sox Post Season roster-ALDS- 2018 edition
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
- Start date
Nunez Fielding Percentage (.971) at 3B would put him 4th in baseball (just below Moustakas) at 3B if he qualified. Devers (.929) is last.
I don't see how you can give up defense like that in a short series given the offense he's displayed. The team has been through that scenario before.
I'm good with him as the backup 3B and PH on the bench. My heart can't take the stress on every ball hit to 3rd - particularly in a close game.
i was just looking up the fielding percentages too. Even though fielding percentage is kind of an old line stat, .929 is hard to overlook. Hard to believe we’re “hoping” for Nunez to be healthy enough to play but it is what it is.
Fielding % isn't a very good defensive metric, and these are very small sample sizes for defense.
Devers has a higher range factor at 3B this season (2.72 vs. 2.53) and career (2.60 vs. 2.44).
B-R has both of them as 2 runs above average this year on defense (all positions combined).
UZR has Nunez as plus 10 UZR/150 this year and minus 5.3 UZR/150 in his career. UZR has Devers as minus 4.5 UZR/150 this year and minus 6.8 UZR/150 in his career.
Do we think Nunez has figured something out on defense at age 31? I think it's more likely that it's a wash defensively between the two, with Nunez having better hands and Devers having more range.
To my eyes, Devers range is excellent. So I think I agree with this assessment. I'd start Devers over Nunez if for no other reason than this -- Devers is young and still putting things together. Will that be next week? Or during the playoffs? Maybe! (Of course more likely it is in 2019) But, if you told me the Sox 3B went 12/30 with 3 homers in the ALDS I would guess that it was Devers over Nunez.
It’s been recognized upthread that fielding % is old as a comparison stat, but I don’t think the newer stats catch error rates, and Devers’ is alarmingly high. He was worse last year. So you have a guy with good range but he boots or throws away chances at double the average MLB rate. Not crazy about Nunez either, so, our 3B situation stinks, and our catchers can’t hit. Can one call the Sox a well balanced team?
Reading between the lines with Cora, it sounds like Nathan Eovaldi will be in the rotation if the Sox draw the Yankees in the ALDS. As he should be.
Cora also says he already knows who will be filling the bullpen spots even though it seems like he is trying different pitchers out. Interesting because that's exactly how it looked.
This is exactly the roster I would go with and that probably means we are both wrong. Kelly and Hembree should have been able to be in the playoff bullpen, but they have both been useless for an extended period.
For those wanting Nunez left off, keep dreaming unless he is too hurt to play. Cora has already shown that Nunez is the starting 3B when healthy, whether we agree or now.
It makes no sense to leave Devers off the roster because he can be a power threat off the bench and does fairly well against some LHs that the Sox May face.
I really like the idea of keeping Eovaldi in the rotation if the Sox draw the MFYs in the ALDS. That likely means EdRo to the pen. Far less likely would be using Price as they did in last year's ALDS. Thoughts?
The newer stats definitely count error rates. My memory of how it used to work is anything ruled an error was considered a missed chance at a 95% bucket (I made that number up, but that’s the general concept). They might have something more sophisticated these days. At worst, an error is considered just as bad as simply never touching the ball in the first place.
Yeah I brought that up before but that was also before Price went on this run he's on. No way he's in the pen. If if's the Yankees, it will be most likely Sale Game 1, Price Game 2 then to me it's a toss up between Eovaldi and Porcello for Game 3. I'd lean Eovaldi based on his success against the Yankees since becoming a Red Sox. Then, Porcello with Sale backing him up if need be for Game 4 and Price Game 5 with all hands on deck.
Also, the only reason Price was in the pen last year was because he was coming back from injury and hadn't built up his endurance. I think you're right with the rotation. And if Eovaldi is in the rotation because of his success vs the Yankees, he should get Game 3.
Sounds about right. Go Price in game 2, that way we can keep David from having to pitch in the band box and I’d throw Evo in Game 3. Having Eddie throw high 90’s out of the pen for 2 or 3 innings sounds like a good use for him.
Nunez vs L: 900 PAs, 4.6 BB%, 12.4% K%, .142 ISO, .282 BABiP
Nunez vs R: 1923 PAs, 4.6 BB%, 13.6% K%, .127 ISO, .315 BABiP
Given that we should regress his splits with 2200 PAs against LHP, and that all of his demonstrated reverse split comes from BABiP, the claim that he has a true talent reverse split seems pretty questionable.
It’s almost like there is no such thing as a reverse splits hitter. It infuriates me that people ever think that’s not true
Well I'm certainly not saying that no one here is not disagreeing with you on that. No sir.
I have no idea what position you are taking here.
I'll note that Ichiro did have a pretty big reverse split for his career. We can feel confident that that was real because we have a very large sample (2861 PAs vs LHP, regress with 1000 PAs). Pretty much all of that reverse split comes from Ichiro hitting more grounders (58.8% vs L, 54.0% vs R) and turning more of those grounders into hits (.306 BABiP vs L, .281 BABiP vs R). Ichiro was famous for his weird slap hitting skills, and that specific ability giving him a weird reverse platoon split seems pretty easy to believe.
Ok I did not articulate that well. Point is the noise in platoon splits is insane. Ichiro is a very good counter point. It is possible he had small lifetime reverse splits. The split for him also got more pronounced towards the end of his career. Elite hitters can certainly have very close to neutral splits and Ichiro does fall into that category as does Mike Trout for example.
Anyways, sorry for this tangent. More just wanted to point out that we need to stop looking at platoon splits over small samples and making broad declarations like Nunez is a better hitter vs RHP
Anyways, sorry for this tangent. More just wanted to point out that we need to stop looking at platoon splits over small samples and making broad declarations like Nunez is a better hitter vs RHP
Not basing this on his very recent HR -and now 2 in 2 games - since I have been a big Devers advocate since his mL days and was pro "call him up" in the late summer of '17... but it's very clear he not only SHOULD be getting the starts at 3B in the playoffs, but obviously will.
He is an offensive threat, which I think overrules his shortcomings defensively at least in the early part of the game. After the 6th inning (or 7th, depending on where he is coming around in the batting order) I'd advocate to remove him for Nunez or even Lin..... but that's about it
He is an offensive threat, which I think overrules his shortcomings defensively at least in the early part of the game. After the 6th inning (or 7th, depending on where he is coming around in the batting order) I'd advocate to remove him for Nunez or even Lin..... but that's about it
Kind of sad to see Cora giving Pom every opportunity to make the October cut and each one being wasted. Watching a very good baseball player's career end in the most public of ways.
You got this information from a private meeting with Cora ?
It’s not possible theres any other explanation like eating innings in meaningless games or you think he wants to trot out the bullpen in every inning possible until the playoffs and arm fatigue be damned?
You really don't think his latest appearances were "opportunities to make the postseason," do you?
First of all, Cora has said he's pretty much made up his mind, these arent tryouts for roster spots.
Second, why would you think that?
His baseball career is not ending. He's having a shit year.
Also, I'm totally convinced that Joe Kelly will be on the roster.
All the talk is about Nunez/Devers, but maybe the answer is neither. I know Holt hasn't really played much at 3b the last few years but he's been mashing of late. He could cool off before then, but if he continues to be a hot bat, it would be hard not to ride it out and I can't see them sitting Kinsler even if he's still struggling come playoffs.
Holt's Last 31 games: 80 PA, .333/.432/.573. 5 HRs.
In his first 268 PA this year, he had 1 HR. He struggled mightily for awhile, but he's now at .273/.359/.398 for the year. Works out to an OPS+ of 105, his career high is 98.
That is clearly an upgrade to Nunez's .264/.288/.389 and Devers' .241/.296/.426. Is Holt that much worse at 3b that people aren't discussing the possibility or does he offer more value off the bench? Hard to ignore a .060+ gap in OBP.
edit: Also continue to like what I see out of Lin in very sporadic playing time. The guy's glove is for real, he has decent wheels and may be able to hit a little. Wish there was enough time in the season left to get him some more PA but alas there is not. I doubt he makes the playoff roster but he is a huge upgrade defensively at 3b for later innings so I'm hesitant to say he has no chance.
Holt's Last 31 games: 80 PA, .333/.432/.573. 5 HRs.
In his first 268 PA this year, he had 1 HR. He struggled mightily for awhile, but he's now at .273/.359/.398 for the year. Works out to an OPS+ of 105, his career high is 98.
That is clearly an upgrade to Nunez's .264/.288/.389 and Devers' .241/.296/.426. Is Holt that much worse at 3b that people aren't discussing the possibility or does he offer more value off the bench? Hard to ignore a .060+ gap in OBP.
edit: Also continue to like what I see out of Lin in very sporadic playing time. The guy's glove is for real, he has decent wheels and may be able to hit a little. Wish there was enough time in the season left to get him some more PA but alas there is not. I doubt he makes the playoff roster but he is a huge upgrade defensively at 3b for later innings so I'm hesitant to say he has no chance.
Interesting, but wouldn’t Cora be starting Holt at third by now if he was even leaning toward starting him there in the ALDS? Also, I think Brock’s ability to play so many positions is sometimes a detriment to him being named a “permanent” starter at one position. They like the Swiss Army knife concept that much.
Yeah, I don't see him as any sort of sacred cow. Cora should ride the hot hand(s) in October. If that means Kinsler sits, then he sits.
I mentioned that but I just can't see them benching Kinsler regardless of how bad he hits. Defensively speaking, Kinsler is in another category than Holt, Nunez and Devers.
If the season were to end today and I was in charge, I'd have Holt at 2b and Devers at 3b but I just can't see it happening.
Mostly tongue in cheek, but with how bad Moreland has been since 6/6, I'd consider starting Devers at 1b for the next few games to see how he does. Devers, Holt, X, Nunez. It'd never happen though.
Nunez last 40 games: 153 PA, .297/.314/.473 on a .310 BAbip
Devers since 6/6: 56 games, 223 PA, .261/.314/.459 on a .299 BAbip
Moreland since 6/6: 75 games, 279 PA, .205/.290/.320 on a .254 BAbip.
Moreland has been atrocious.
Nunez last 40 games: 153 PA, .297/.314/.473 on a .310 BAbip
Devers since 6/6: 56 games, 223 PA, .261/.314/.459 on a .299 BAbip
Moreland since 6/6: 75 games, 279 PA, .205/.290/.320 on a .254 BAbip.
Moreland has been atrocious.
C - Leon and Swihart (over Vaz because he can pinch run)
1B - Moreland and Pearce
2B - Kinsler
3B - Nunes and Devers
SS - Bogaerts
OF - Benintendi, Bradley and Betts
DH - Martinez
Utility - Holt
One more - Rollins or Vaz (I’d pick Rollins, Cora will pick Vaz)
SP - Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez
7th/8th - Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Kelly
9th - Kimbrel
Long - Eovoldi, Wright
For all that’s been written about this, I think barring injuries, there are only two questions:
Third catcher (Vaz) or veteran presence (Rollins)?
I’d pick Rollins because he’s more likely to be a pinch-hit hero and can play several positions. Vaz is not significantly better behind the plate than Swihart, IMO, and Leon, despite his dead bat should start every game anyway.
Kelly or hot-hand reliever?
I’d pick Joe for a dumb reason: Fight Club.
1B - Moreland and Pearce
2B - Kinsler
3B - Nunes and Devers
SS - Bogaerts
OF - Benintendi, Bradley and Betts
DH - Martinez
Utility - Holt
One more - Rollins or Vaz (I’d pick Rollins, Cora will pick Vaz)
SP - Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez
7th/8th - Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Kelly
9th - Kimbrel
Long - Eovoldi, Wright
For all that’s been written about this, I think barring injuries, there are only two questions:
Third catcher (Vaz) or veteran presence (Rollins)?
I’d pick Rollins because he’s more likely to be a pinch-hit hero and can play several positions. Vaz is not significantly better behind the plate than Swihart, IMO, and Leon, despite his dead bat should start every game anyway.
Kelly or hot-hand reliever?
I’d pick Joe for a dumb reason: Fight Club.
Regarding catchers, there's a lot of downtime in between PA for Vaz and Swihart, but they've been considerably better than Leon of late. Kinda shocked everyone is taking Leon over Vazquez without much thought or hesitation.
Vaz, last 35 games, 104 PA: .247/.292/.392, .280 BAbip
Swihart, last 42 games, 109 PA: .287/.339/.416, .365 BAbip
Leon, last 47 games, 146 PA: .105/.175/.165, .138 BAbip
Some of it is obviously luck and they are all SSS, but Leon has a pretty big track record of suck now. I think we can say with fair certainty what he is.
I don't think we really know what Swihart and Vaz are due to injuries but I think there is reason to believe they've been better than their season lines to date. Say whatever you want about batting average, but Sandy Leon is a career .227 hitter, compared to .248 for Vaz and .257 for Swihart. In the minors, Leon hit .238, Vaz .266, Swihart .268 (and that includes last years .190 performance). That is a lot of production in just contact skills alone and with similar power and walk rates, Leon doesn't have a way of closing that gap offensively. On top of that, Swihart's BB rate% has been trending upwards the last few years, although Vaz's has been trending down (his k rate is too, though).
Vaz, last 35 games, 104 PA: .247/.292/.392, .280 BAbip
Swihart, last 42 games, 109 PA: .287/.339/.416, .365 BAbip
Leon, last 47 games, 146 PA: .105/.175/.165, .138 BAbip
Some of it is obviously luck and they are all SSS, but Leon has a pretty big track record of suck now. I think we can say with fair certainty what he is.
I don't think we really know what Swihart and Vaz are due to injuries but I think there is reason to believe they've been better than their season lines to date. Say whatever you want about batting average, but Sandy Leon is a career .227 hitter, compared to .248 for Vaz and .257 for Swihart. In the minors, Leon hit .238, Vaz .266, Swihart .268 (and that includes last years .190 performance). That is a lot of production in just contact skills alone and with similar power and walk rates, Leon doesn't have a way of closing that gap offensively. On top of that, Swihart's BB rate% has been trending upwards the last few years, although Vaz's has been trending down (his k rate is too, though).
Except he wasn't in the organization on 9/1 so there is no way of getting him on the playoff roster.
Exactly. I don't think anyone is suggesting Leon over Vazquez because of his offensive prowess. Leon is the preference 100% because of his game calling and defense. Quite a few pitchers seem to prefer him, and he has a track record of success. Wasn't there a stretch in the middle of the season where the Red Sox were something like 25-1 when Leon caught and somewhere around .500 when anyone else did? It's akin to Farrell going with David Ross in the World Series in 2013 despite Saltalamacchia clearly being the better hitter because he caught a better game and the pitching was better for it.
Don’t get so hung up on offense, the team’s strength regardless of Leon, Nunez and Moreland. Cora’s showing his hand.
I like Jimmy Rollins at 2nd base.
But seriously...
I'm intrigued by the idea of Phillips being on the postseason roster.... but I'm not sure what he offers. I just loved him as a player but his OBP is horribly suspect and I'm not sure his defense at any position is worth much now. I guess emergency in-game injury to 2nd or 3rd base, but we have Brock Holt and Nunez for that......perhaps veteran leadership stuff means something.
I'm quite certain the Sox will have Vazquez on the roster (along with Swihart and Leon)
But seriously...
I'm intrigued by the idea of Phillips being on the postseason roster.... but I'm not sure what he offers. I just loved him as a player but his OBP is horribly suspect and I'm not sure his defense at any position is worth much now. I guess emergency in-game injury to 2nd or 3rd base, but we have Brock Holt and Nunez for that......perhaps veteran leadership stuff means something.
I'm quite certain the Sox will have Vazquez on the roster (along with Swihart and Leon)
Me too, but I like Rollins... err, Phillips, on the playoff roster because during the playoffs, regular season stats don’t really matter. It’s more who’s hot and who’s not. That said, neither Phillips nor Vaz are exactly hot. But as I suggested, I think Rollins is 10x more likely to come through in a pinch. Literally in a pinch, as a pinch hitter. And he can play three positions reasonably well. Vaz one.
I see no upside at all of carrying a 3rd catcher in a five-game series, assuming Leon starts every game.
That said, there’s a close-zero-chance that Cora leaves Vaz off the roster. So three catchers it is. They need Swihart to pinch run in late innings. Funny that a catcher gets that job.
Phillips only chance to make the post-season roster is if Nunez isn't healthy. He's had two injuries to his legs in the last couple weeks, the latest of which has kept him out since Wednesday. Hopefully the rest is doing him good and he'll be able to play some in the next week to show he's good to go. But if he can't, maybe Phillips takes his spot, at least for the LDS.
Just saw on redsox.com that E-Rod will pitch out of the pen on Monday. He'll be coming in after Eovaldi.
Basically sounds like if it's the Yankees, Eovaldi will be the fourth starter; if it's the Athletics, it'll be Rodriguez.
https://www.mlb.com/redsox/news/eduardo-rodriguez-will-pitch-in-relief-vs-os/c-295782314
Basically sounds like if it's the Yankees, Eovaldi will be the fourth starter; if it's the Athletics, it'll be Rodriguez.
https://www.mlb.com/redsox/news/eduardo-rodriguez-will-pitch-in-relief-vs-os/c-295782314
And after that game, the next four starters are going to be:
Tu: Price
We: Sale
Fr: Porcello (not announced but likely)
Sa; Eovaldi/EdRo?
If Cora wants to keep everyone on a routine, that means Price would start Sunday (probably going only a couple of innings), Sale pitches a short simulated game on Monday, then Price/Sale pitch Friday/Saturday in the ALDS (with Sale available on regular rest for Game 5 if necessary)
Tu: Price
We: Sale
Fr: Porcello (not announced but likely)
Sa; Eovaldi/EdRo?
If Cora wants to keep everyone on a routine, that means Price would start Sunday (probably going only a couple of innings), Sale pitches a short simulated game on Monday, then Price/Sale pitch Friday/Saturday in the ALDS (with Sale available on regular rest for Game 5 if necessary)