2018 NBA offseason thread

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,707
Where do you draw the line on Baynes in both years and dollars? More than one year? More than two? I know I don't.
I’m guessing that he signs a two year MLE deal here because we’re in the middle of nuclear winter. Despite everyone’s assumption that teams are going to line up to hand out huge money deals to the Boston roleplayers they want gone, the reality is that there are a handful of teams in the market and so many players to choose from that those deals are going to be to come by.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,346
Santa Monica
I’m guessing that he signs a two year MLE deal here because we’re in the middle of nuclear winter. Despite everyone’s assumption that teams are going to line up to hand out huge money deals to the Boston roleplayers they want gone, the reality is that there are a handful of teams in the market and so many players to choose from that those deals are going to be to come by.
Agreed. Just not much cap space available around the league. Teams don't want to sign veteran role players (especially bigs) to multi-year deals. Many teams have there own favorites they want to bring back (ie Lakers-Randle, Sixers-Reddick, etc). There are only a few contending clubs that will have interest in Baynes. Maybe the Celtics offer Baynes 2yrs at the same price as last season($4.4/yr). Maybe Aron likes the idea of playing meaningful hoops, Celtic pride, living in Beacon Hill etc and turns down a larger 1yr deal elsewhere. Once again complete speculation, I have little idea how this will play out monetarily or what Baynes motivation is.

But I fully expect the Celtics to sign a veteran BIG. I can't see Danny rolling the dice on complete health at the 5 and starting the year with Theis/Horford/Williams/Yabusele. BTW Embiid would thrash that group.

ALSO waiting to make a mid-season deal is not a risk worth taking, teams will hold us hostage for our draft picks if they see the Celtics are desperate. There will be plenty of cheap options for veteran bigs this offseason.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
64,516
Agreed. Just not much cap space available around the league. Teams don't want to sign veteran role players (especially bigs) to multi-year deals. Many teams have there own favorites they want to bring back (ie Lakers-Randle, Sixers-Reddick, etc). There are only a few contending clubs that will have interest in Baynes. Maybe the Celtics offer Baynes 2yrs at the same price as last season($4.4/yr). Maybe Aron likes the idea of playing meaningful hoops, Celtic pride, living in Beacon Hill etc and turns down a larger 1yr deal elsewhere. Once again complete speculation, I have little idea how this will play out monetarily or what Baynes motivation is.

But I fully expect the Celtics to sign a veteran BIG. I can't see Danny rolling the dice on complete health at the 5 and starting the year with Theis/Horford/Williams/Yabusele. BTW Embiid would thrash that group.

ALSO waiting to make a mid-season deal is not a risk worth taking, teams will hold us hostage for our draft picks if they see the Celtics are desperate. There will be plenty of cheap options for veteran bigs this offseason.
Forgive me if I'm missing something, but the Celtics just beat Philly, didn't they?

Do you think this is not repeatable?
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,974
Cultural hub of the universe
But I fully expect the Celtics to sign a veteran BIG. I can't see Danny rolling the dice on complete health at the 5 and starting the year with Theis/Horford/Williams/Yabusele. BTW Embiid would thrash that group.
We had Baynes but no Williams last year, and I kept thinking we needed another big. Danny held out till the deadline and then picked up Monroe. I could see him keeping his options open again this year.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,346
Santa Monica
Forgive me if I'm missing something, but the Celtics just beat Philly, didn't they?

Do you think this is not repeatable?
I believe I believe.

Just think we need another BIG with size to match up all season long against Embiid, Gortat, Drummond, etc instead of wearing Al Horford down to a nub.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,340
We had Baynes but no Williams last year, and I kept thinking we needed another big. Danny held out till the deadline and then picked up Monroe. I could see him keeping his options open again this year.
Agreed. He has a history of adding cheap veterans at the deadline. PJ Brown, Cassell, Marbury, etc.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,707
Forgive me if I'm missing something, but the Celtics just beat Philly, didn't they?

Do you think this is not repeatable?
Part of the reason for the thrashing though was that Horford reached the postseason fresh and that Baynes was there to physically abuse Embiid for 15-20 minutes a game. Williams isn’t that sort of player. Yabusele might be one day, he ain’t now.

Most of us have said Baynes or a replacement, it’s just that it’s most likely to be Baynes because he likes it here and Boston is playing for a title.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
64,516
Hey, I'm all about optimizing the lineup and I love that the discussion is mostly about just how sharp Danny can make his sword. I was just wondering about how to think about the needs in relation to the baseline of what has already happened.

I was a big Powe guy. I felt like Danny was... trying to get back to his roots. It's useful to have a banger, totally agree. I'm just trying to figure out the specific areas people want us to improve and why, so I agree with the get a big (or keep Baynes) but in that context, wanted to ask about the specific concerns as far as.... WINNING. :)
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,161
New York, NY
We had Baynes but no Williams last year, and I kept thinking we needed another big. Danny held out till the deadline and then picked up Monroe. I could see him keeping his options open again this year.
Did we actually need Monroe? Did we really use Monroe in the playoffs? If it's just about absorbing minutes in the regular season to keep Horford fresh, why not give those minutes to our first round pick?

I'm playing Devil's advocate a bit here. I really like Baynes and want us to keep him. I just don't think he's a need now, with Williams on the team. I think Smart is much more of a need, for example, because when it comes down to picking 7-8 guys I want to go to war with in the playoffs, I care far more about Smart being one of those players than I do about Baynes being our big instead of Theis.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,707
Hey, I'm all about optimizing the lineup and I love that the discussion is mostly about just how sharp Danny can make his sword. I was just wondering about how to think about the needs in relation to the baseline of what has already happened.

I was a big Powe guy. I felt like Danny was... trying to get back to his roots. It's useful to have a banger, totally agree. I'm just trying to figure out the specific areas people want us to improve and why, so I agree with the get a big (or keep Baynes) but in that context, wanted to ask about the specific concerns as far as.... WINNING. :)
Williams is a prospect. He isn’t likely to have much impact on next season, and is unlikely to see much postseason time except in a blowout. So someone like Baynes is going to be signed just to spare Horford the beating during the regular season and against teams like Philly and Washington in the playoffs.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,340
I think Smart is much more of a need, for example, because when it comes down to picking 7-8 guys I want to go to war with in the playoffs, I care far more about Smart being one of those players than I do about Baynes being our big instead of Theis.
If given the choice of Tyreke here on a full 4-year MLE or Smart on the same deal who do you guys prefer?
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,707
The younger guy that plays better defense. Although Smart, obviously, lacks Evans’ drive-by game.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,161
New York, NY
If given the choice of Tyreke here on a full 4-year MLE or Smart on the same deal who do you guys prefer?
I don't think there is any chance Tyreke Evans is available that cheap coming off the season he just had. In a vacuum, I'd take him. For this Celtics team, I'd really have to think hard because I think Smart is a better fit for our needs. So, I honestly don't know but don't think it's a real scenario worth considering.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,340
I don't think there is any chance Tyreke Evans is available that cheap coming off the season he just had. In a vacuum, I'd take him. For this Celtics team, I'd really have to think hard because I think Smart is a better fit for our needs. So, I honestly don't know but don't think it's a real scenario worth considering.
Tyreke has played 117 games over the last 3 years, missed 129, had had at least 3 knee surgeries during that time, and is turning 29. I can't envision a rebuilding team under the cap going bonkers with a large deal......I don't see him as a fit for those teams at all. He will be a target of the contenders who don't have more than the MLE to spend. He is a legitimate option if Ainge prefers him over Smart if the latter also gets only an MLE offer sheet. I can see both sides here.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,551
If given the choice of Tyreke here on a full 4-year MLE or Smart on the same deal who do you guys prefer?
Smart by a mile.

I don't get the Tyreke fit here. Not looking to add a guy looking for his own shot as a role player. Give me the defender all day.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,346
Santa Monica
IMO Danny doesn't really have much competition for 31yr old Aron Baynes.

Some suggested the 76ers since Aron was so good on Joel. I think they are focused on bigger fish, Kawhi/George/James. If not them JJ Redick and other 3pt shooters are needed around Simmons, Embiid and Fultz.

It would have to be a playoff team with not much money dedicated to the 5 already. Here are the top teams in each conference:
Toronto - Valancunis/Poeltl
Phila - Embiid/Holmes
Cleveland - TT
Pacers - Turner/Sabonis
Miami - Whiteside/Bam
Milwaukee - Henson/Maker/Hawes
Washington - Gortat/Mahimni
Detroit - Drummond
GSW- Bell/Green
Houston - Capella
Utah - Gobert
OKC - Adams/Johnson
Portland - Nurkic/Leonard
Clippers - Jordan/Boban/Harrell
NO- Brow/ Cousins?/Okafor
SA- Aldridge/Gasol
Minn- KAT/Dieng
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
12,224
IMO Danny doesn't really have much competition for 31yr old Aron Baynes.

Some suggested the 76ers since Aron was so good on Joel. I think they are focused on bigger fish, Kawhi/George/James. If not them JJ Redick and other 3pt shooters are needed around Simmons, Embiid and Fultz.
I'm also guessing that Aron isn't super enthused about backing up the guy who tweeted "man bun just in the league to get dunked on."
 

DavidTai

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
1,252
Herndon, VA
Smart by a mile.

I don't get the Tyreke fit here. Not looking to add a guy looking for his own shot as a role player. Give me the defender all day.
Smart all day here, too. What the team needed Tyreke Evans for last year would be, I think, covered by Gordon Hayward's return and the redistribution of minutes accordingly between Tatum, Brown, and Hayward.

I'd want another PG to replace Larkin, which is what I presume the talk about Brad Wanamaker is for - someone to conserve Irving's minutes, and if we let Smart go, we'd have to find someone to replace -him- as the swiss-army knife defensively.

I'd want Smart even more so if Boston traded Rozier.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
64,516
Williams is a prospect. He isn’t likely to have much impact on next season, and is unlikely to see much postseason time except in a blowout. So someone like Baynes is going to be signed just to spare Horford the beating during the regular season and against teams like Philly and Washington in the playoffs.
Grazi to you and the others. That's part of what I'm interested in--how long does it generally take to shape a rookie even to cannon fodder, yeah?

Having come back to the NBA after walking way for a number of years over reffing (AGAIN... I may need help. But man, that Mavs-Heat series... I felt like such a jerk for watching basketball.) I am aware that I have completely unreasonable expectations for what Brad might do with young guys.

Like, seriously: Think about it. It's fun. I know it's not sustainable, but all I know of this new Celtics team is magic.

Which is why I so appreciate people answering the more technical, physics, non magical stuff.


Smart all day here, too. What the team needed Tyreke Evans for last year would be, I think, covered by Gordon Hayward's return and the redistribution of minutes accordingly between Tatum, Brown, and Hayward.

I'd want another PG to replace Larkin, which is what I presume the talk about Brad Wanamaker is for - someone to conserve Irving's minutes, and if we let Smart go, we'd have to find someone to replace -him- as the swiss-army knife defensively.

I'd want Smart even more so if Boston traded Rozier.
Given how many tools Brad already has at his disposal--and how many of them are Swiss Army Knife types--does a guy like Smart who brings... that something else... is there a point where that becomes more valuable once enough other stuff is in place.

Like, I feel like losing Smart is like losing a player and the team mascot.
 

DavidTai

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
1,252
Herndon, VA
Given how many tools Brad already has at his disposal--and how many of them are Swiss Army Knife types--does a guy like Smart who brings... that something else... is there a point where that becomes more valuable once enough other stuff is in place.

Like, I feel like losing Smart is like losing a player and the team mascot.
You mean like, Smart is a multiplier effect on the other players, kind of? It's what he feels like to me, at least defensively.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2007
64,516
You mean like, Smart is a multiplier effect on the other players, kind of? It's what he feels like to me, at least defensively.
Yeah, like that. I mean, Smart is the kind of guy you go to war with, as the saying goes--and the other players seem to feel that way too.

Now, you don't swap out the medic in your unit for him or anything. But if you have a slot, he brings a lot of intensity that is contagious. Plus, as we saw in the playoffs, he'll be the first guy to rush to your defense.

I mean, we watched him mind-fuck Harden into blowing a game while laughing at him the whole time.
 

Montana Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 18, 2000
8,928
Twin Bridges, Mt.
Listened to a podcast this weekend and the question was, who will be "assigned" to mentor Sleepy Williams? The quick and easy answer that was given, was Horford, and I get that with regard to showing him how to be a successful NBA player and maybe even working to teach him inside moves so he can take advantage of his baby hook shot. However, my thoughts went immediately to Smart and Jaylen as Brad's effort enforcers. They're younger players who RWIII should be able to relate to more easily and they have demonstrated that they know how to play the game the right way and put max effort into preparing for success.

I think Sleepy is going to be Jaylen's pet project and yeah, I want Smart back.
 

Big John

New Member
Dec 9, 2016
2,086
If Baynes comes back and Theis is 100% after his injury, Williams' chief mentor will likely be 31 year-old Brandon Bailey, the coach of the Red Claws.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,102
Smart all day here, too. What the team needed Tyreke Evans for last year would be, I think, covered by Gordon Hayward's return and the redistribution of minutes accordingly between Tatum, Brown, and Hayward.

I'd want another PG to replace Larkin, which is what I presume the talk about Brad Wanamaker is for - someone to conserve Irving's minutes, and if we let Smart go, we'd have to find someone to replace -him- as the swiss-army knife defensively.

I'd want Smart even more so if Boston traded Rozier.
Is Wanamaker any better than Larkin who at least has a year in the system?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,340
Is Wanamaker any better than Larkin who at least has a year in the system?
Larkin would never return here with no minutes coming his way anytime soon. He'll have plenty of opportunities for consistent minutes to reestablish himself as a regular rotation player in this league even without a raise this summer. His agent, then change of agents in the middle of the FA process, 3 years ago really screwed over his career.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
9,423
San Francisco
Given the Celtics talent and expectations I think it makes a lot of sense to build the roster out with particular oponents in mind. This means Embiid, Curry, Durant.

I also felt watching the Sixers series they needed another big, especially when Baynes had foul trouble. But hopefully Theis is healthy next year. In any case they definitely need 3 large men.

Even more importantly though I think Smart is absolutely key for guarding Curry or Paul or Lowry. Pay the man
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,102
Larkin would never return here with no minutes coming his way anytime soon. He'll have plenty of opportunities for consistent minutes to reestablish himself as a regular rotation player in this league even without a raise this summer. His agent, then change of agents in the middle of the FA process, 3 years ago really screwed over his career.
If there are no minutes at that spot, why would Wanamaker leave an overseas career to come here? He may very well just want to get on an NBA roster, I don't know...

Is anyone getting paid overseas going to leave that money to play behind Irving and Rozier ad/or Smart?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,340
If there are no minutes at that spot, why would Wanamaker leave an overseas career to come here? He may very well just want to get on an NBA roster, I don't know...

Is anyone getting paid overseas going to leave that money to play behind Irving and Rozier ad/or Smart?
His goal is reportedly to get into the league similar to Larkin accepting his limited role last season to get his feet back in the door. You have to get on the radar first, then get your minutes for the opportunity to get paid. If we are the only offer it sounds like he's ready to take it but I agree that there are better spots for playing time if those teams choose to guarantee him a deal.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,340
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23890370/carmelo-anthony-oklahoma-city-thunder-exercise-early-termination-option-contract

In a surprise to no one, Carmelo Anthony opted in for the final year of his contract at $27.9M. Wonder if he is at risk of being renounced or if that is even possible.
A buyout doesn't really do anything for OKC as they would still be over the cap unable to sign a FA. The only option to rid themselves of him would appear to be trading him to a team looking to shed a year off of a deal similar to Charlotte's trading of Howard for the Nets to get Mozgov's number off the books next year.

Upon review there doesn't seem like a good match to shed one year off a deal but there are several intriguing players if OKC took on two years like Allen Crabbe, who would be a great fit over Roberson as a shooter on the floor with RWB, if Brooklyn wants to clean house or others in the $12-15m per year range.
 
Last edited:

Marbleheader

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2004
11,728
So, that leaves LeBron and Chris Paul to the Lakers? If LeBron wants titles I'm not sure that will cut it.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,974
Cultural hub of the universe
If Baynes comes back and Theis is 100% after his injury, Williams' chief mentor will likely be 31 year-old Brandon Bailey, the coach of the Red Claws.
Nailed it. Until of course someone gets hurt, in which case RW hopefully will get some run. And there's also Summer League, training camp and preseason where he'll get to hang with the major leaguers. I'd love to see the whole young crew on him, telling him this is the way its got to be.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
8,871
NYC
I feel like someone's going to get a bargain on Alex Len, given the tight market this summer and the current fad for small, switchable centers (plus Len's bonus demerits for being foreign). In many an offseason, a 25 year-old 7'-1", 260 lb. starting center who just put up 15.1 pts on .612 true shooting / 13.4 reb per 36 would be command near-max money. This summer I'll be mildly surprised if he finds a full MLE.

I like Baynes a lot, but if I were you guys I'd take Len over Baynes, given the choice (and Kyle O'Quinn over both).
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I wonder how much Payton will get. It looks like he improved his shot a little last year but it wasn't a very big sample size.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
25,969
Los Angeles, CA
So, that leaves LeBron and Chris Paul to the Lakers? If LeBron wants titles I'm not sure that will cut it.
I don't know if I buy the latest report about the Spurs only looking at EC teams. They know LA has the greatest incentive to trade for Kawhi due to signability, and that's their best opportunity to get something of value. Could be a negotiating ploy - gonna have to offer a lot more for us to consider trading him to an in-conference rival.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
8,871
NYC
Michael Beasley's essentially the same player as 'Melo, only five years younger, a couple inches taller, in better shape, and better at pretty much everything (shooting, finishing, rebounding, e.g.) He must look at that $27.9M and shake his head.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Michael Beasley's essentially the same player as 'Melo, only five years younger, a couple inches taller, in better shape, and better at pretty much everything (shooting, finishing, rebounding, e.g.) He must look at that $27.9M and shake his head.
At himself, for pissing away his career and the same type of contracts.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,374
I feel like someone's going to get a bargain on Alex Len, given the tight market this summer and the current fad for small, switchable centers (plus Len's bonus demerits for being foreign). In many an offseason, a 25 year-old 7'-1", 260 lb. starting center who just put up 15.1 pts on .612 true shooting / 13.4 reb per 36 would be command near-max money. This summer I'll be mildly surprised if he finds a full MLE.

I like Baynes a lot, but if I were you guys I'd take Len over Baynes, given the choice (and Kyle O'Quinn over both).
I like Len, but it’s because of possibility of more growth. Today, Baynes is a much better defensive player and that makes a huge difference. I’d bet Celts strong prefer Baynes if cost similar between these two. RPM has real gaps on big men with limited minutes but Baynes far ahead, fwiw.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,340
I don't know if I buy the latest report about the Spurs only looking at EC teams. They know LA has the greatest incentive to trade for Kawhi due to signability, and that's their best opportunity to get something of value. Could be a negotiating ploy - gonna have to offer a lot more for us to consider trading him to an in-conference rival.
Isn't that standard for trading a star player within a division or conference anyway? It usually boils down to how high the value bar is from a team within your conference or in some cases the bar is completely out of the reach for the acquiring team.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
25,969
Los Angeles, CA
Isn't that standard for trading a star player within a division or conference anyway? It usually boils down to how high the value bar is from a team within your conference or in some cases the bar is completely out of the reach for the acquiring team.
Sure. But I’m commenting on how the recent report is likely a semi-bluff, intended to send a message.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,340
Michael Beasley's essentially the same player as 'Melo, only five years younger, a couple inches taller, in better shape, and better at pretty much everything (shooting, finishing, rebounding, e.g.) He must look at that $27.9M and shake his head.
Except for that nasty little fact of Anthony being a surefire HOFer at the same of the signing as Beasley was being waived by Phoenix, Miami, and Memphis over a 12 month period.

Maybe they are the same player now but Carmelo is at the tail end of his rope......Beasley was never in the same league up until now.
 

LondonSox

Robert the Deuce
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,956
North Bay California
I don't get why Paul would leave Houston, who had a very real shot at winning it all this year, and who knows if not for Cp3 own injury, for the Lakers.
Even with LeBron
Cp3, ball, LeBron, Ingram and someone (you lose randle and Lopez etc) plus kuzma and some vet guys.

Is that REALLY competing in the west? By the time ball and Ingram are ready will Paul and LeBron still be legit?

Possible I guess but ...
 

Lazy vs Crazy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
6,431
I don't get why Paul would leave Houston, who had a very real shot at winning it all this year, and who knows if not for Cp3 own injury, for the Lakers.
Even with LeBron
Cp3, ball, LeBron, Ingram and someone (you lose randle and Lopez etc) plus kuzma and some vet guys.

Is that REALLY competing in the west? By the time ball and Ingram are ready will Paul and LeBron still be legit?

Possible I guess but ...
If they aren't wiling to max him in Houston and the Lakers are, he'll bolt.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,346
Santa Monica
I feel like someone's going to get a bargain on Alex Len, given the tight market this summer and the current fad for small, switchable centers (plus Len's bonus demerits for being foreign). In many an offseason, a 25 year-old 7'-1", 260 lb. starting center who just put up 15.1 pts on .612 true shooting / 13.4 reb per 36 would be command near-max money. This summer I'll be mildly surprised if he finds a full MLE.

I like Baynes a lot, but if I were you guys I'd take Len over Baynes, given the choice (and Kyle O'Quinn over both).
Celtics interest: 1. Baynes 2. O'Quinn 3. Len

How about your Warriors, any interest in Baynes or the above to pair with Bell? Zaza, West, McGee all gone?