Potential Trade Deadline Targets
- Thread starter thepriceisright
- Start date
There's about thirteen closers hitting free agency in six months, including our own, who is the best one. Why would we give up valuable assets to acquire one long-term?
Well done.
IDK, was there really any reason to believe it wasn't better for a small market team like KC to get a couple players they like now and save the extra money?
If last year was any indication and considering the recent round of CBA changes, I personally think the days of the deadline prospect fleece (with increasingly rare exceptions of course) are coming to a close. Which in turn should see the ability to absorb salary in full on the value rise, and hence why I don't necessarily think our potential desire to upgrade position is as dire as some are making it out to be.
I disagree. Hand's best season from bWAR is last year at 2.8 wins, which is high for a reliever, in other words on the upper end of what's possible. Probably his ceiling. He's at 0.2 bWAR this year. Devers racked up 1.3 bWAR in his less than half a season in Boston as a 20-year-old. Power-hitting 3bs can rack up 3 wins in their sleep.
Also worth noting is the not-in-a-vaccum question of who replaces Devers vs who Hand replaces. But I know you were speaking strictly as a matter of respective player value.
That contract on Hand is probably a lot better then anything we could possibly find in free agency.
I personally wouldn't want to see us trade Devers for him, but Hand is a pretty established piece on a team friendly deal now and Devers has lot more lower expectation potential then people here (including myself) are going to acknowledge atm/imo. So I also do agree with moondog80 that it would ultimately be a reasonable expected price tag.
What is Devers’ WAR this year?
I know...he’s still just a kid. But it’s not unusual for a guy to make a splash in 200 PA at the end of a season and then never reach that level again. I hope he gets there, but right now Devers is very much a question to be a consistent 3 WAR guy.
People are going to be blown away with how little in the way of prospects this deadline has. This is probably the most intense buyers market I've seen. There are like 8 teams that have a legitimate shot and a ton of teams in sell mode.
Devers for Hand is a joke. He should be hitting bombs in AA right now as a top 5 prospect in baseball.
Devers for Hand is a joke. He should be hitting bombs in AA right now as a top 5 prospect in baseball.
Agree with Speier, and am amazed at how some here would be happy to move him for pieces. It appears that the Sox think they have a high ceiling player, and I expect them to keep running him out there, the lineup can support his funks....
I'd bet more on Devers being a solid contributor moving forward than I would on trading legit assets for pretty much any reliever. For every Kimbrel there are countless Smiths, Thornburgs, Baileys, and Gagnes.
I'd bet more on Devers turning into a purple cheetah than I would on trading him for a freaking reliever.
Sure, his numbers are likely to be very volatile at this age and there's a chance he just fizzles out. But mostly I'm pointing out how a 3B is typically way more valuable than a setup guy. And Devers profiles as someone who has a good chance of equaling Hand's WAR career numbers in a season or two. The start of his career is positively elite:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/06/19/trading-rafael-devers-makes-little-sense-here-are-all-reasons-why/2FoCdeCljjypRFql8HTGkL/story.html
I like the part where Speier asks some GMs if they like Devers or Moncada more. We traded Moncada and Kopech for Sale. Devers is more productive and two years younger than Moncada. Nobody would trade Moncada for Hand.
Is the bold true? If I'm reading him right, Moondog is saying he's not surprised that Devers would be SD's asking price for Brad Hand, not that he thinks its the right move for the Sox to deal Devers. Did I miss anyone else lobbying for a trade?
This seems like more a talk-radio-driven fake trade.
Yeah, I see posts suggesting that Hand's contract make him someone the Red Sox should have interest in, and someone the Padres aren't wrong to want significant value in return for, and none saying they'd want the Red Sox to trade Devers for him.
Brad Hand isn't free though.
He's making roughly 8 mill annually, so the excess value isn't going to be all that much unless he is Kimbrel-esque. And he is not in that tier.
Even if Devers is a below average regular over the next few years - say a 1.5 WAR player, they would still be getting more than 10 million worth of value over him right now. He isn't quite there yet, but the improvements have been showing lately.
Preller is notorious for asking for the moon, so you can't blame him for trying, but I don't think that is a reasonable ask.
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If there was a version of the Espinoza/Pomeranz trade, that would work. Don't see it with the state of the farm though.
No, but the Whitesox would have other pieces they could offer for Hand other than Moncada. The Sox have nothing that would fit the bill besides Devers, which means they just aren't a match for the Padres and Hand is not coming here. Ben10 would fit the bill too but that would be even more ludicrous.
Now, if for some reason the Redsox preferred Manuel Margot to JBJ, a Hand+Margot for JBJ+Devers trade might make some sense, but only if the Sox thought very highly of Margot. The Sox should be very familiar with him. He's still pre arb and only turns 24 in September. He's under control until 2023, 2 years longer than JBJ and one year less than Devers. He's been hitting better of late too, although with a very high BAbip. The Sox would also free up some salary this way. Hell, free up even more salary and see if you can throw in Vazquez for AJ Ellis.
Not really suggesting they do any of that, but it makes more sense than just trading Devers for Hand. Plus it begs the question of who plays 3b if the Sox do trade Devers. Hand is just not a realistic target unless you want to get very creative.
I, and many others, would fucking mutiny if we traded Devers and JBJ for Hand and Margot. Just because a trade is marginally less stupid than another (and even then, that's arguable) doesn't make it a valid suggestion.
Are you sure? Does he count more against the cap than JBJ? I think Hand's salary is closer to 6.5m. If they pick up the team option in 2021, it retroactively goes up from 6.5m closer to 7.5m.
And he may not be Kimbrell but he's also been really, really good the last 3 years. Does anyone know what caused his K rate to double in 2016? From 2011-2015, his K rate% was 15.2%.
2016: 30.5%
2017: 33.4%
2018: 36.9%
His walk rate has remained relatively the same in the same time period. I know some of it can be explained by hitters striking out now more than ever, but that can't be all of it.
Since 2017, he's at 105 games, 115.1ip with 34bb/157k and an era of 2.18. His WHIP is .945. He'd be great to have but he's a luxury we don't really need and one we can't afford. A Kimbrell/Hand/Kelly/Barnes bullpen would be pretty sick, tho.
I mean about 8 per from 2019-21 assuming they pick up the option. I'm only talking about from a value standpoint, not a cap hit.
He's a great reliever, but unless they use him like Josh Hader and he approaches that effectiveness (not bloody likely) I don't think he can reasonably out value Devers if you include salaries.
There just aren't that many relievers that can be worth cost controlled every day players.
Jesus Fucking Christ no no no go not trade Devers for a reliever!!!! Just no. I can’t believe this is being seriously discussed here!!!!!
To what extent do the Sox need to wait to see what's going on with Pedroia before they start thinking seriously about bullpen or anything else? Are the issues unrelated? Are they comfortable with Nunez/Holt (and maybe Lin for September) as their only Pedroia insurance?
Let's say the ASB comes and goes without clarity on whether Pedroia will be available down the stretch. I don't know that they have luxury tax room or assets to do more than one move and at that point I think they need to decide whether something like Lowrie is the priority.
Let's say the ASB comes and goes without clarity on whether Pedroia will be available down the stretch. I don't know that they have luxury tax room or assets to do more than one move and at that point I think they need to decide whether something like Lowrie is the priority.
I don't think it really is.
Don't option years count for luxury tax like 1 year deals minus the buyout that counted as part of the guaranteed salary in previous seasons? Cot's has Kimbrel counting for his $13 M salary this season minus the $1M buyout they didn't use. So Hand would count prorated rest of this season, around $6.6M for the next 2 seasons, and $9 in 2021 if they pick up the option.
I agree that Devers is too high a price for him, but if he's good enough to be a viable Kimbrel replacement for the future, it would make sense to at least try, although I doubt they have what it takes to get him, unless the Padres for some bizarre reason are in love with some combination of prospects the Red Sox do have.
I agree that Devers is too high a price for him, but if he's good enough to be a viable Kimbrel replacement for the future, it would make sense to at least try, although I doubt they have what it takes to get him, unless the Padres for some bizarre reason are in love with some combination of prospects the Red Sox do have.
Anyone else impressed that the Padres have five other relievers in their bullpen with better FIPs than Brad Hand? (Cimber, Stammen, Erlin, Yates, Maton)
Almost like he’s not as uniquely singular and effective as national beat writers make him out to be.
Almost like he’s not as uniquely singular and effective as national beat writers make him out to be.
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It's funny you say that because I remembered that last month a writer was making a case for Sean Doolittle as the current best reliever in baseball (at that point), and the main stat he used was xwOBA. So in the midst of this discussion I thought I'd check where Hand was on that list and he is an unimpressive 70th, still good but maybe not the weapon he is made out to be, as you say.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=pitcher&year=2018&position=&team=&min=50
This is especially true, when reliever is waaaay down on the list of needs for a team that can roll with
Hembree
Barnes
Kelly
Kimbrel
and probably soon to be added to the BP: Pomeranz
The biggest need is 2B if Pedey is out for an extended time.
The RS have an outstanding team. The biggest issues are that the Astros are a juggernaut and the Yankees are a very good team, and is in a great position to improve (especially starting pitching) since they have both the $ and prospects, while the RS are very limited in both those areas.
He is probably their most valuable long term relief asset since he has two more pre-arb years and could definitely be a starter on a multitude of teams going nowhere. So ya, that would fetch the most, but I would think they would rather hang onto him given the lack of effective cheap starters and that he is also good for this roster.
I'd say Hembree is the next most but is a large drop off since he will be arb1 next season and is just a step above fungible.
Swihart makes the same amount of money, so if the Sox moved one of those guys at the deadline they would be able to afford a guy making an AAV of around 6 mill.
In the unlikely scenario Bradley were moved, it would be closer to 8mill.
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What hasn't been suggested is which prospects the Sox could actually part with. Not a stellar group, but the Nats didn't give up much for Herrera and position players seem to cost less.
I would say a few of these guys are candidates:
-Roniel Raudes will be rule 5 eligible which is hard to believe since he's only 20. He's also still in high A so nowhere near contributing.
-Denyi Reyes who just played in the low A all-star game. They aren't loaded with low level starter talent, but maybe he's a sell high guy since apparently his stuff isn't all that great.
-Ty Buttrey is ripening quickly in AAA but having a great season. I'd say he is less likely since he may help in September.
-Williams Jerez is overly ripe and taking up a 40 man spot, so maybe just a throw in to create space for a new guy. He'd be a candidate for DFA anyhow if they added one.
-Roldani Baldwin, also Rule 5 eligible. They are really thin at catcher though.
-Bobby Dalbec. He is blocked by Devers and Ockimey is ahead of him if he were to move to 1b. Hard to gauge his value since the whiff rate is so high.
-Chandler Shephard. He has been ok transitioning to a starter in AAA so is close.
-Travis Lakins. He moved to the pen recently, so maybe a team wants to try and roll with him as a starter.
I would say a few of these guys are candidates:
-Roniel Raudes will be rule 5 eligible which is hard to believe since he's only 20. He's also still in high A so nowhere near contributing.
-Denyi Reyes who just played in the low A all-star game. They aren't loaded with low level starter talent, but maybe he's a sell high guy since apparently his stuff isn't all that great.
-Ty Buttrey is ripening quickly in AAA but having a great season. I'd say he is less likely since he may help in September.
-Williams Jerez is overly ripe and taking up a 40 man spot, so maybe just a throw in to create space for a new guy. He'd be a candidate for DFA anyhow if they added one.
-Roldani Baldwin, also Rule 5 eligible. They are really thin at catcher though.
-Bobby Dalbec. He is blocked by Devers and Ockimey is ahead of him if he were to move to 1b. Hard to gauge his value since the whiff rate is so high.
-Chandler Shephard. He has been ok transitioning to a starter in AAA so is close.
-Travis Lakins. He moved to the pen recently, so maybe a team wants to try and roll with him as a starter.
It's not reasonable for the Red Sox to accept. Way too much upside from Devers for the Sox to accept. They shouldn't even feel one simdgen as desperate as the Cubs were. The upside per the link below with a kid that is just 21. Especially for a reliever. It's not even clsoe for the Sox to think about. OFC San Diego can ask. It's not unreasonable for an opposing team to attempt trying to rob another team blind.
If we want to look at Cubs trade lets also look at the Jeff Bagwell trade.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-case-for-rafael-devers/
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Salary hit of a minimum of $2.5M (assuming he's acquired at the deadline, more if he's acquired earlier). If he's available, there will be more interested parties than just the Red Sox. No idea how to gauge prospect value but I don't think he'll come cheap, particularly if the White Sox eat any of his salary.
It would be insane for the Sox to trade Devers for a reliever. I do wonder what the cost for Britton would be. Gotta factor in that it's the Orioles. Coming off the injury, making $12 million this year, free agent after this season. Would be a fantastic piece for the Sox, and given what I just mentioned about him (injury, salary, FA status) I can't imagine the cost would be TOO high. Maybe, since they never use him, Swihart for Britton, with maybe something going either direction?
Britton's not a bad idea, but his fastball's about 2-2 1/2 mph down from his pre-injury levels. Since the fastball is more or less all he throws, I'd like more evidence he can still be the same guy.
His fastball has nasty sinking motion. He had obvious rust in his first appearance against Boston with three walks. But so far, so good for him. 3.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 3 bb, 3 k. Still throwing 94 mph, and I assume that will increase a couple of ticks.
Considering the fact we aren't the Pirates or out there trying to win the Paper Value Series every year, I'm not sure if that's really an argument for or against whether a trade there would actually makes sense in relationship to this current Red Sox window situation and roster.
Again, I'd personally be against trading Devers for Hand because I generally believe that he's going to hit at a much better then 1.5 WAR rate sooner rather then latter. But how much hypothetical career WAR a young Devers might go on to put up after the guarantee that he's still under team control here is up tends to carry too much surface weight in these debates imo.
Yeah, this is all just killing time as opposed to anything real. But I did wonder, what about Hand and one of our dearly departed prospects coming back? Margot... we have a crowded outfield. Espinoza... probably too much risk. Devers being a 3B makes him especially untradeable right now. A Holt/Nunez platoon would be a nightmare.
There have been 62 deals involving teams acquiring just relievers around deadlines since 2010. Want to know how many everyday regulars were exchanged? One. Wilson Ramos. And he was about 50 at bats into his career.
This includes impact guys like Octavio Dotel, Huston Street, Joakim Soria (twice), Andrew Miller (twice), Ziegler, Koji, Cishek etc.
Relievers are volatile and they break, and they can only have so much impact on a major league roster. Everyday regulars are almost always going to be more valuable. Call it the paper value series if you want, but GM's seem to think it's a stupid idea to move cost controlled players for guys who contribute 60 games a year.
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Devers is unmovable not only because of his ceiling, but also because of his price tag. He's cheap. Benintendi is cheap. Barnes is cheap. Just about everyone else is either expensive or about to get expensive. You have to have some value somewhere or the budget gets out of hand very quickly, sort of like it is now.
How many of those guys in your presented deadline deal sample size actually possessed a 3 year track record similar to Hand, were still under control for 3+ seasons on a below market deal, and clocked in under the age of 30?
Honestly, I'm not even predicting that Hand is going to get dealt this year period btw. Minus the same default and fairly reach'y "if they get blown away with an offer" speculation that gets made this time of year on a lot of other good players on bad teams that never end up being dealt.
Sean Doolittle has the exact same fWAR as Hand over the past three years and makes significantly less through 2020. And Ryan Madson was also included in that same deal.
You're making it sound like Brad Hand is a hall of famer or something.
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Honestly I think everyone has the return Cashman got for Miller and Chapman as a new baseline for premium relievers. In reality it was a perfect storm of two desperate franchises trying to win a WS, and not likely to happen again.
Completely agree. When I went through all the deals, those were the two that stood out to me as outliers.
I'm not implying that in the slightest. But I'm not going to trash all over his "value" here just because WAR doesn't like or do a good job of evaluating relief pitchers either.
Plus evaluating value to me is never that black and white simple. Under your proposed hypothetically scenario, I'd be sitting here less concerned about potentially missing out on some way down the road payout and filling out 3B over the next couple of years with 1.5 WAR worth of production then how to go about filling the two end of season holes staring at this team with both Kimbrel/Kelly due for FA (which I love Kimbrel, but put me on record now as wanting no part of committing him record setting type money for his age 31+ seasons).
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Or maybe it's the fact that majority of relievers are volatile, injury-prone, and inconsistent season to season, which inherently makes them not as valuable as position players. Especially young ones.
Craig Kimbrel is one of the few that isn't. He will be worth his contract, Joe Kelly is not and will likely be overpaid (although given the market regression last year, perhaps not.)
Brad Hand is more Kelly than Kimbrel, but even then, you wouldn't trade Devers for Kimbrel straight up, would you? I wouldn't. So the fact that he's even in this conversation for Hand is what's ridiculous, not everyone else's (or WAR's) take on reliever value. As stated above, the Gleyber trade was the exception, not the rule.
The Red Sox have a good half dozen arms in the minors who at least have a slight chance of becoming relief assets. They have zero 3rd baseman and little of anything else internally. To me, the back end of the pen is something you worry about when all the other pieces are in place. Developing a relief arm is no longer an onerous task. But that's just my opinion.
Anyhow - agree to disagree on reliever value.
Often teams don't even "develop" relief arms per se, they're just failed starters with repertoires and/or velocities that play up well in relief. It's rare (not unheard of, but rare) for players to be drafted as, and come up through the system entirely as relievers.