The 2018 NBA Draft

herbie plews · Jun 20, 2018

Really? You are going to give me TJ McConnell to make your point? He is a nice heady player, not a savant. There are multiple guys like him on every team. That’s like using Chris Ford as a comp for Larry Bird before the 1978 draft.

Yes, I know Jalyen’s situation in college. I also know that Doncic was playing against men 10 years older than him in the second best basketball league in the world and was the MVP.

He has elite vision and BBIQ to go along with an advanced handle and superb passing skills. Those qualities trump athleticism which in his case is more than adequate. Also, at 6‘8“ and 220 pounds, he is going to fit in defensively in today’s switchable NBA.

Big John · Jun 20, 2018

Ayton is the one who is massively overhyped. His greatness managed to lose to Buffalo by over 21 pts in the first round of the NCAA tournament. How do you think the Buffalo Bulls would fare against teams like FCB Barcelona or CSKA Moscow?

Devizier · Jun 20, 2018

What are the odds that Tatum >> than anyone in this draft? I'd say pretty good. Of course, Tatum is a very high bar.

tims4wins · Jun 20, 2018

Big John said:
Ayton is the one who is massively overhyped. His greatness managed to lose to Buffalo by over 21 pts in the first round of the NCAA tournament. How do you think the Buffalo Bulls would fare against teams like FCB Barcelona or CSKA Moscow?

Durant didn’t exactly take his team far

Eddie Jurak · Jun 20, 2018

bosox79 said:
You can never have enough fire power either though. No one would complain about having a Lou Williams off the bench. Even drafting that late, I think the Celtics should take the best player available and not draft for need. That doesn't necessarily mean draft the player they think will be the best in 2022 either, it could mean drafting the player who they think could contribute the most in 2018-19. They shouldn't pigeonhole themselves into finding a Marcus Smart clone if there's another player available that offers more overall value.

I actually think that, within reason, drafing for need makes sense in the latter part of the first round. The variance around expectations of any player taken late in the first is so high that taking the guy who rates out the best is not necessarily a good idea. It never makes sense to reach for a Fab Melo, but letting need factor in to the decision is not necessarily a bad thing.

Bosox1528 said:
Wait, am I losing my mind here?

People are suggesting trading Jaylen Brown for a pick like #3, #4 #5 or even #6?!?! Someone even suggested ADDING assets to Brown to get one of those picks?

Do you realize Jaylen Brown was drafted #3 right? And that he's greatly exceeded expectations so far?

This is the classic draft hype. Every year, there's a ton of coverage for the NBA draft and players get hyped up beyond belief.

If Brown is on the table at all, it means that:
1. The Celtics have identified a specific player as a franchise-caliber player.
2. That player is on the board at whatever draft position they deal Brown to move up to.

They wouldn't just be trading Brown for a pick.

I agree it could all be a smokescreen. IMO, Brown is not a franchise player, future top 10 in the league type of player. But he is a deserving max contract player who also happens to be a very good fit in their system. That's hard to improve on in a deal for a draft pick. The only way it happens is if they have someone in this draft pegged as a Tatum-caliber guy and that guy is available in the spot they trade up to.

Big John · Jun 20, 2018

I'm not sure what "franchise player" means, but Brown could become what Klay Thompson is for the Warriors-- if Brown isn't that player (or close to it) already. Brown's improvement from year 1 to year 2 was significant, and with his physical tools and intellect the sky is the limit.

Big John · Jun 20, 2018

tims4wins said:
Durant didn’t exactly take his team far

Durant lost to a USC team with Taj Gibson, Nick Young and Gabe Pruitt. Durant had 30 points and 9 rebounds in that game.

Ayton lost to a far inferior team. They fronted him with a bunch of nobodies and took him completely out of his game.

herbie plews · Jun 20, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
Oh please stop with this "second best league in the world" crap as if that lack of context means anything. Doncic was playing against men 10 years older in a league that includes guys named Jan Vesely, Nando DeColo, and Alexey Shved among the best players over there. He did really well against players who couldn't cut it in the NBA. You really think his weaknesses were exposed last year?

Again, I don't not like the player. He's simply massively overhyped imo. I don't disagree with Doncic having elite vision, BBIQ, and superb passing skills.....although I'll debate that his handle is special and hurt by his lack of a quick first step.

OK then, let me give the “second-best league in the world“ some context: it is a tougher level of competition than college basketball.

I agree that Doncic does not have a particularly quick first step, but in Europe he has usually gotten where he wants to go through a combination of hesitations, crossovers, changes of pace and an amazing understanding of angles. I think that ability will translate to the NBA. There are plenty of guys with average burst who have been able to do this, from Magic to Bird to Stockton to Nash and others. Even TJ McConnell occasionally surprises with his ability to penetrate.

I get it. I like him a lot more than you do. He is my favorite player in the draft, particularly for the Celtics who emphasize spreading the floor and passing, which Doncic does at an elite level. For them, he can play point guard, point forward, or off the ball. He will be able to create, unlike Brown and Rozier, who have great first steps. He is a perfect fit offensively and with his size will be more than OK defensively in their switch-heavy defense.

PedroKsBambino · Jun 20, 2018

Devizier said:
What are the odds that Tatum >> than anyone in this draft? I'd say pretty good. Of course, Tatum is a very high bar.

A way to test that is to ask if you'd trade him for the top pick. I would not.

Eddie Jurak · Jun 20, 2018

Big John said:
I'm not sure what "franchise player" means, but Brown could become what Klay Thompson is for the Warriors-- if Brown isn't that player (or close to it) already. Brown's improvement from year 1 to year 2 was significant, and with his physical tools and intellect the sky is the limit.

By “franchise player” I mean something like “could be the best player on a champion”. I dhope my think Brown is (or will be) that. Klay, who also isn’t that, is a pretty good comparison (in value if not necessarily in style).

BaseballJones · Jun 20, 2018

PedroKsBambino said:
A way to test that is to ask if you'd trade him for the top pick. I would not.

Right now, given Tatum's ability and demonstrated success in the NBA (the kid averaged 17.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and shot 49.5% from the field in the ECF), every single player in tomorrow's draft would LOVE to be as good as Tatum was this year. Odds are, almost none of them will be.

You'd be hard pressed to find any Celtics fan that would trade Tatum for the #1 pick in this year's draft, straight up.

EL Jeffe · Jun 20, 2018

Getting back to the C's, at #27, all you can hope for is a role player. I see very little separation between the perimeter players that will be there at #27, and those who will be there around, say, 50. Of that grouping, as I've said before, Diallo is the guy who seems most like the typical Ainge guy. In terms of roster construction, I think I'd rather them start looking for a Theis replacement than taking a JAG wing. Theis is going to get a lot more expensive (someone will pay him to be a 25mpg player) once he hits the market in a year and I can't see Boston paying that for him. Mitchell Robinson will most likely be gone, but he'd be my pick at #27 if he managed to last there. Failing that, there's a major drop-off in Bigs. Billy Preston seems like the only other guy who could potentially fill that role, but there's an awful lot of projection there. My best guess is they go with a wing but I wouldn't be opposed to a gamble on Preston. If you hit on him, you've got a valuable rotational Big. If you miss, you can move on from a later first rounder without too much damage incurred.

bakahump · Jun 20, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
I don't disagree with Doncic having elite vision, BBIQ, and superb passing skills.....although I'll debate that his handle is special and hurt by his lack of a quick first step.

to be fair a guy with the same (less?) traits went #2 overall last year

Jokes aside, Is a comparison for Doncic, Ball? Is that fair to Doncic? I know Ball is unfinished but isnt Doncic as well?
Doncic shoots better, no?

Devizier · Jun 20, 2018

EL Jeffe said:
Getting back to the C's, at #27, all you can hope for is a role player. I see very little separation between the perimeter players that will be there at #27, and those who will be there around, say, 50.

I imagine the Celtics will be looking to backfill their rotation -- in other words a big (current depth is Horford and Guershon) or a guard (Irving and Rozier).

nbadraft.net has the Celtics picking Moritz Wagner. His comparison is Kelly Olynyk (according to them). I don't know if that's because of lazy racial stereotypes but he seems like as good a pick as any.

the moops · Jun 20, 2018

Devizier said:
I imagine the Celtics will be looking to backfill their rotation -- in other words a big (current depth is Horford and Guershon) or a guard (Irving and Rozier).

nbadraft.net has the Celtics picking Moritz Wagner. His comparison is Kelly Olynyk (according to them). I don't know if that's because of lazy racial stereotypes but he seems like as good a pick as any.

You are missing Theis

cheech13 · Jun 20, 2018

bakahump said:
to be fair a guy with the same (less?) traits went #2 overall last year

Jokes aside, Is a comparison for Doncic, Ball? Is that fair to Doncic? I know Ball is unfinished but isnt Doncic as well?
Doncic shoots better, no?

Kevin Pelton has Doncic rated as the best prospect since Anthony Davis based on projected value over his first five seasons. He's on a different level than Ball or other guys in this draft. It's insane that he might drop past #2 tomorrow.

nighthob · Jun 20, 2018

BaseballJones said:
Right now, given Tatum's ability and demonstrated success in the NBA (the kid averaged 17.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and shot 49.5% from the field in the ECF), every single player in tomorrow's draft would LOVE to be as good as Tatum was this year. Odds are, almost none of them will be.

You'd be hard pressed to find any Celtics fan that would trade Tatum for the #1 pick in this year's draft, straight up.

Despite Markelle Fultz's meltdown, the 2017 draft was a pretty good one, and Tatum is pretty clearly a future MVP candidate. So it's tough to judge all drafts by the "Will this draft produce a long term top 5 player?" standard because, definitionally, nearly no draft does.

Alternatively people need to lay off 2017 when it did produce someone as good as Tatum, not to mention Donovan Mitchell, DSJ, the Finnish Marauder, and the much maligned Lonzo Ball (he isn't ever going to be on Tatum's level, but he's pretty clearly an ideal third star for a team that has a top 2).

DJnVa · Jun 20, 2018

Marbleheader · Jun 20, 2018

I don't blame him, Memphis is an awful place. They should have put the team in Nashville.

BigSoxFan · Jun 20, 2018

Marbleheader said:
I don't blame him, Memphis is an awful place. They should have put the team in Nashville.

Danny must absolutely love that nobody wants to go to Sacramento and Memphis. My guess is that Bamba wants Dallas and is willing to give up some money to get there.

Caspir · Jun 20, 2018

DrewDawg said:

I've been to Memphis. He is making the right decision. Marbleheader nailed it. Why they stuck a team there as opposed to a place like Nashville that is booming with new construction and an influx of younger residents is one of those things I bet the NBA had a mulligan for.

E5 Yaz · Jun 20, 2018

BigSoxFan said:
Danny must absolutely love that nobody wants to go to Sacramento and Memphis. My guess is that Bamba wants Dallas and is willing to give up some money to get there.

Red just lit another cigar

nighthob · Jun 20, 2018

Marbleheader said:
I don't blame him, Memphis is an awful place. They should have put the team in Nashville.

The NBA had no say in the matter (except to try and veto a move from Vancouver). The then owner wanted Memphis. In truth the Grizzlies should be tabbed as the next franchise to wear the Supersonics name.

Devizier · Jun 20, 2018

Caspir said:
I've been to Memphis. He is making the right decision. Marbleheader nailed it. Why they stuck a team there as opposed to a place like Nashville that is booming with new construction and an influx of younger residents is one of those things I bet the NBA had a mulligan for.

NBA probably wishes it could have worked out in Vancouver.

BaseballJones · Jun 20, 2018

JakeRae said:
Alternatively, a simultaneous set of trades where Brown gets traded straight up for Doncic on draft night and Irving plus picks get traded for Kawhi also makes a lot of sense from a roster construction standpoint.

Then you're all in on Rozier at the point, and after next year you're gonna have to pay the man. I don't think they can handle that many huge contracts.

That being said, I heard this on WEEI today...

Brown plus Sac plus Bos #27 for Kawhi (would need to include more for salary purposes). Gives you a starting five of:

Kyrie
Kawhi
Tatum
Hayward
Horford

Which probably is as good, on the whole, as Golden State's. And it gives you the one guy who can actually kinda sorta guard LeBron and Durant on Kawhi. (Maybe Draymond Can too)

Kyrie is a top 15 player. Kawhi, when healthy, is a top 5-7 player. Hayward and Horford are top 25 players. And Tatum is going to be in that conversation very very soon if r isn't already.

chilidawg · Jun 20, 2018

BaseballJones said:
Then you're all in on Rozier at the point, and after next year you're gonna have to pay the man. I don't think they can handle that many huge contracts.

That being said, I heard this on WEEI today...

Brown plus Sac plus Bos #27 for Kawhi (would need to include more for salary purposes). Gives you a starting five of:

Kyrie
Kawhi
Tatum
Hayward
Horford

Which probably is as good, on the whole, as Golden State's. And it gives you the one guy who can actually kinda sorta guard LeBron and Durant on Kawhi. (Maybe Draymond Can too)

Kyrie is a top 15 player. Kawhi, when healthy, is a top 5-7 player. Hayward and Horford are top 25 players. And Tatum is going to be in that conversation very very soon if r isn't already.

But doesn't that give you even worse salary problems, with 4 max guys? And do you have any bench after you add Rozier and Morris and Yabusele to make the salaries work? Just doesn't make any sense to me.

ehaz · Jun 20, 2018

chilidawg said:
But doesn't that give you even worse salary problems, with 4 max guys? And do you have any bench after you add Rozier and Morris and Yabusele to make the salaries work? Just doesn't make any sense to me.

At that point, you’re in GFIN mode and you still re-sign Smart. Deal with the luxury tax for 4 years ala Cleveland. You’ve got Theis as well. And the mid level + ring chasers. I only do it if Kawhi is all in on Boston though.

Marceline · Jun 20, 2018

It doesn't matter who is on the bench if you have that for your starting 5. Just coast through the season and play your starters 40min/game when the real season starts in April.

RedOctober3829 · Jun 20, 2018

Teams are exploring deals with the Hawks for the no. 3 pick with the hope of moving up to select Luka Doncic or Mo Bamba, per league sources. Hearing interested teams are the Bulls, Knicks, Magic, Clippers and Mavs. The Celtics are a dark horse. @ringer

BigSoxFan · Jun 20, 2018

RedOctober3829 said:
Teams are exploring deals with the Hawks for the no. 3 pick with the hope of moving up to select Luka Doncic or Mo Bamba, per league sources. Hearing interested teams are the Bulls, Knicks, Magic, Clippers and Mavs. The Celtics are a dark horse. @ringer

Ugh. One pick away from being able to send to my Atlanta friends with a 28 to 3 joke attached.

Jed Zeppelin · Jun 20, 2018

BigSoxFan said:
Ugh. One pick away from being able to send to my Atlanta friends with a 28 to 3 joke attached.

Oh this is good.

JCizzle · Jun 20, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
This so smells of Bamba if we ever did move up. An ideal replacement for Baynes minutes immediately and a long term guy for Horford. Plus he's my #2 guy in this draft behind Bagley.

KOC is such a Bamba fanboy lately that it's making me think he might be our target if we trade up. KOC has Doncic #1, but it feels half-hearted like his Fultz take last year. You could tell he really wanted to put Tatum #1 based on his enthusiasm for him and I'm guessing he based these opinions somewhat on the Boston FO. IIRC he was also bullish on Brown at 3 when a lot of others were way down on him.

RedOctober3829 · Jun 20, 2018

JCizzle said:
KOC is such a Bamba fanboy lately that it's making me think he might be our target if we trade up. KOC has Doncic #1, but it feels half-hearted like his Fultz take last year. You could tell he really wanted to put Tatum #1 based on his enthusiasm for him and I'm guessing he based these opinions somewhat on the Boston FO. IIRC he was also bullish on Brown at 3 when a lot of others were way down on him.

I’ve wanted Bamba since last year. He’s the perfect fit for what the C’s need.

the moops · Jun 20, 2018

I am not seeing how BOS gets the ATL pick. Rozier + picks maybe? Seems light. Brown is too much.

ehaz · Jun 20, 2018

the moops said:
I am not seeing how BOS gets the ATL pick. Rozier + picks maybe? Seems light. Brown is too much.

Even if it’s Rozier + SAC 1st + BOS 1st + MEM 1st + LAC 1st I don’t think it gets done. And Bamba/Doncic ain’t falling past Dallas.

bosockboy · Jun 20, 2018

Rozier is a great fit for Atlanta, they are in the PG market.

the moops · Jun 20, 2018

ehaz said:
Even if it’s Rozier + SAC 1st + BOS 1st + MEM 1st + LAC 1st I don’t think it gets done. And Bamba/Doncic ain’t falling past Dallas.

Well, I gotta think that haul would get it done. That seems like way too much to give up. The SAC and MEM pick are super valuable

DJnVa · Jun 20, 2018

ehaz said:
Even if it’s Rozier + SAC 1st + BOS 1st + MEM 1st + LAC 1st I don’t think it gets done. And Bamba/Doncic ain’t falling past Dallas.

Wow, quite a bit--I gotta think ATL would take that.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jun 20, 2018

DrewDawg said:
Wow, quite a bit--I gotta think ATL would take that.

I think they would too. I wonder if they would still do it without the Memphis pick.

JCizzle · Jun 20, 2018

DrewDawg said:
Wow, quite a bit--I gotta think ATL would take that.

I think it's worth it if Danny has a guy in mind. Take a HR swing now rather than kick the can down the road and maybe end up with a couple of singles or doubles later on.

mcpickl · Jun 20, 2018

ehaz said:
Even if it’s Rozier + SAC 1st + BOS 1st + MEM 1st + LAC 1st I don’t think it gets done. And Bamba/Doncic ain’t falling past Dallas.

I agree, Atlanta doesn't take this.

Rozier and Schroeder are a bad fit together, then #27 from Boston, and guessing on reasonable value on future picks, say #5 from Sacramento in 2019, #10 from Memphis in 2019 or 2020 and a non lottery pick(or a 2022 2nd rounder) from LAC in 2019 or 2020.

They need to take a shot at a star at #3 rather than piling up bulk lesser assets.

By the time those future picks could possibly pay off, Travis Schlenk is probably out of the job because they stunk the whole time.

A GM would have to have a lot of goodwill built up with his owner to make this kind of deal.

finnVT · Jun 20, 2018

You almost can't bundle the SAC and MEM picks, because you need a worthwhile contingency for the SAC pick ending up #1. The variance on the SAC pick turning into the PHI pick is too huge to be a centerpiece, so you can mitigate that by having the MEM pick convey in the unlikely event that occurs. If you try to build a package involving both, I'm not sure what you can offer to mitigate that risk for the receiving team.

BigSoxFan · Jun 20, 2018

bosockboy said:
Rozier is a great fit for Atlanta, they are in the PG market.

They would need to find a landing spot for Schroeder first who is signed for 3 more years at $15.5M / season. Perhaps Orlando would be interested if they don’t take Young at #6. Maybe something like Schroeder/Clips pick for Isaac/filler.

Thus, Celtics get #3 and maybe a 2018 2nd from ATL, Atlanta gets Rozier/Isaac/#27/Sac/Mem, and Orlando gets Schroeder/LAC pick. Something like that.

If Ainge empties the war chest, Bamba is the guy I’d take at #3. He is such a smart kid and seems cut from the same cloth as Jaylen. Would be the perfect counter when your prime competitor has Embiid.

Horford / Bamba
Tatum / Theis / Yabu
Hayward / Morris / Semi
Brown / MLE
Irving / Smart

Could them use MLE to bring in a shooter for the 2nd unit instead of a big. Now that would be a fun team to watch. Starting unit would abuse you on offense and then the bench comes in and chokes you out on defense.

ehaz · Jun 21, 2018

BigSoxFan said:
They would need to find a landing spot for Schroeder first who is signed for 3 more years at $15.5M / season. Perhaps Orlando would be interested if they don’t take Young at #6. Maybe something like Schroeder/Clips pick for Isaac/filler.

Thus, Celtics get #3 and maybe a 2018 2nd from ATL, Atlanta gets Rozier/Isaac/#27/Sac/Mem, and Orlando gets Schroeder/LAC pick. Something like that.

If Ainge empties the war chest, Bamba is the guy I’d take at #3. He is such a smart kid and seems cut from the same cloth as Jaylen. Would be the perfect counter when your prime competitor has Embiid.

Horford / Bamba
Tatum / Theis / Yabu
Hayward / Morris / Semi
Brown / MLE
Irving / Smart

Could them use MLE to bring in a shooter for the 2nd unit instead of a big. Now that would be a fun team to watch. Starting unit would abuse you on offense and then the bench comes in and chokes you out on defense.

Evans would fit in nicely with the MLE right there...

Celtics could coast with that second unit and give Hayward/Kyrie all the time in the world to work themselves up to 30 min a game.

BigMike · Jun 21, 2018

BigSoxFan said:
They would need to find a landing spot for Schroeder first who is signed for 3 more years at $15.5M / season. Perhaps Orlando would be interested if they don’t take Young at #6. Maybe something like Schroeder/Clips pick for Isaac/filler.

Thus, Celtics get #3 and maybe a 2018 2nd from ATL, Atlanta gets Rozier/Isaac/#27/Sac/Mem, and Orlando gets Schroeder/LAC pick. Something like that.

If Ainge empties the war chest, Bamba is the guy I’d take at #3. He is such a smart kid and seems cut from the same cloth as Jaylen. Would be the perfect counter when your prime competitor has Embiid.

Horford / Bamba
Tatum / Theis / Yabu
Hayward / Morris / Semi
Brown / MLE
Irving / Smart

Could them use MLE to bring in a shooter for the 2nd unit instead of a big. Now that would be a fun team to watch. Starting unit would abuse you on offense and then the bench comes in and chokes you out on defense.

Man, I hate that deal for the Hawks, There is just a whole lot of not much there. Sure it makes Atlanta better in 2022 most likely, but this is a star driven league, and a very low chance any of those guys are ever a star in the league. Honestly good chance that Rozier is the best player in that package, and I still think he's a better fit as a 6th man.

amarshal2 · Jun 21, 2018

PedroKsBambino said:
A way to test that is to ask if you'd trade him for the top pick. I would not.

That’s a totally different question. I’d probably trade Tatum for the 2018 field. I wouldnt trade him for the #1 pick.

Conigliaro's Potential · Jun 21, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
Morris, Rozier and the Sac pick for the #3 and the final two years of Miles Plumlee's $12m per to replace Baynes. Who says no?

The Hawks. Quickly.

The 2018 NBA Draft

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