Markelle Fultz, Year Three: He's back! Big....?

PedroKsBambino said:

I think that's an interesting discussion.

One issue is cost---Fultz costs $7 mil and so many teams (such as the Celtics) couldn't trade a pick this year for him.

Of those who can, where would he fall? Gotta imagine Spurs at 18 would be interested in taking the shot.

Would Denver deal 14 and Arthur (cap fit) for Fultz? That's about as high as I see a possible fit. But it's an interesting discussion because all you need is one team who looks at Fultz and thinks last year was just an odd aberration to get a much higher pick, and that can't be ruled out.

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I was about to include the salary obstacle. This is why a team likely wouldn't trade for Fultz if they viewed him in this manner. The caveat here is that Fultz is Colangelo's guy and the new GM typically wants to move away from as many of the prior GM's guys as he looks to build HIS team. It's just a real tough match unless he is salary filler to a larger deal or a dump should the longshot of LeBron arrive.

PedroKsBambino said:

I think that's an interesting discussion.

One issue is cost---Fultz costs $7 mil and so many teams (such as the Celtics) couldn't trade a pick this year for him.

Of those who can, where would he fall? Gotta imagine Spurs at 18 would be interested in taking the shot.

Would Denver deal 14 and Arthur (cap fit) for Fultz? That's about as high as I see a possible fit. But it's an interesting discussion because all you need is one team who looks at Fultz and thinks last year was just an odd aberration to get a much higher pick, and that can't be ruled out.

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I don't think the cost is too much on an issue. The contract is low enough that most teams could make it work by offering flotsam or doing an S&T, but how is Fultz a fit in Denver? They already have Murray, Burton, and Harris. Even if Burton signs elsewhere, I can't really see it. Fultz doesn't really offer anything that Harris and Murray don't. He may be the better distributor but Murray made some real progress in the 2nd half this season in that regard and they also don't need a traditional PG because they have Nikola Jokic.

I think the Bucks might be an interesting place for Fultz to end up. They have the 17th pick and they do have some flotsam where they could make it work salary wise. They also love guys with length. Like the Nuggets, they have a big man who can pass the ball in Greek Freak. Unlike the Nuggets, Fultz might be able to offer something that Bledsoe, Brogdon and Snell don't as he is more offensively minded than the 3 of them. Or one would assume, anyway.

I'd also think the Hawks would take a shot at Fultz with the 19th pick and it seems like it might actually be a good spot for Fultz to land. There would be playing time and little pressure to perform/win.

Then Suns at 16 would also make a lot of sense. Again, there would be plenty of playing time and no pressure to perform/win. He could start at PG alongside Booker and that would give them some interesting young pieces, although very polarizing ones in Booker, Fultz, Jackson, Bender, Chriss and they'd still have the 1st pick in the draft.

I think the furthest Fultz would fall is to the Bulls at 22 or the Lakers at 25.

I went 10-20 without actually looking into it, but now that I've looked into it a little more, I think it's more realistic he'd go somewhere between 16-19, as the Suns, Bucks, Spurs and Hawks would all have interest and outside of the Bucks, are all in rebuilding scenarios where it's worth the risk while the Bucks are kinda stuck in no man's land where there isn't many ways to improve the team. If somehow those 4 teams passed, the Bulls at 22, the Pacers at 23 or the Lakers at 25. Another 2 rebuilding teams and another team that's in no man's land, with no real way to improve the team.

So TLDR:
Suns, Bucks, Spurs, Hawks, Bulls, Pacers and Lakers are teams I could see gambling draft picks on Fultz. Those teams could make other moves from here on out that could impact their decision though, especially the Lakers.

PedroKsBambino said:

Seems like four of us---even using somewhat different ways to get there---all have Fultz value as being a teens/early 20s first round pick in this year's draft, right? That's pretty interesting.

I do think it only takes one GM who values him more, but it is a really huge indictment of the bet Colangelo made that a year later Fultz is worth materially less than either pick he was traded for.

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That is something I really hadn't thought of before. I'd guess the vast majority of posters on this board would not trade the Kings pick for Markelle Fultz. If anyone would have said that last year at draft time, I'd have called them insane.

If the 76ers are will to entertain a non-lottery pick for him, doesn't that imply that they think his jumper isn't fixable? Maybe thats what you are all saying, that the probability that he is able to either over come his deficiencies or otherwise compete with them is about the same probability as a pick in the late-teen/early-twenty range doing the same. maybe that's as opposed to a statement - i don't know. Combine that with what I remember as almost zero real consideration of him by the C's before the trade (which may be a testament to tatum, but I would think there would have been a more rigorous discussion of the alternatives) - if the 76ers call me I don't know if i jump at the offer.

I would much rather have someone who's deficiency is getting to the hole - not someone who is missing a jumper.

Well, the 2018 draft is a lot better than the 2017 draft too. Even without knowing what we do, Fultz probably goes 6-10 in this draft and not 1.

I'd probably take Fultz 3rd in this draft without the benefit of hindsight; I don't buy he'd slip to 6.

maufman said:

I guess I didn’t make my point well.

Without question, Fultz’s first year was a train wreck. But I’d argue that comparing a guy with a year under his belt (Fultz, or anyone else) to this year's draft prospects is meaningless — because a lot of the value of those prospects is based on a 90th percentile or better outcome which, by definition, most of them won’t achieve. Among last year’s first 10 picks, I’d say 7 or 8 are worth less now than when they were drafted (the exceptions being Tatum, Markkanen, and maybe DSJ), and I think that’s fairly typical. Fultz wouldn’t be a top-10 pick in this year’s draft, but neither would (for example) DeAaron Fox, and his 1st year was just meh, not terrible.

The right way of illustrating how much Fultz’s stock has fallen is to compare him to his peers who also have a year of experience in the league under their belts. Even a couple guys who had disappointing rookie years have leapfrogged Fultz, and that’s assuming he’d look fine in the private workouts he’d have to do if he were in this year’s draft.

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I think this overstates the case. Collins has probably seen his stock rise and Ball is probably somewhere around even to rising. His shot didn't translate but he proved that he is a plus defender in the NBA when there were also concerns about his defense, proved he is a very good to excellent rebounder, and had no trouble translating his passing.

It's also a little weird to say that someone from last year wouldn't be a top 10 pick this year. If you smash the drafts together and pick based on what we knew at draft time for each year, only 2-3 guys from last year would go in the top 10. I don't think Fox would be a top 10 pick based on what we knew a year ago if dropped into this draft, and he certainly wouldn't be better than the 9th pick.

bowiac said:

I'd probably take Fultz 3rd in this draft without the benefit of hindsight; I don't buy he'd slip to 6.

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I don't think I'd take him higher than 4, and would have to think about it from 4-6. I'd have Fultz clearly ahead of Carter (ceiling), Young (I'm not a believer and think he's a similar player with bigger flaws anyway), and Porter (health).

bowiac said:

I'd probably take Fultz 3rd in this draft without the benefit of hindsight; I don't buy he'd slip to 6.

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Not sure what you mean "without the benefit of hindsight" - you mean based solely on Fultz's draft evaluation without taking into account the last year or something different?

PedroKsBambino said:

Seems like four of us---even using somewhat different ways to get there---all have Fultz value as being a teens/early 20s first round pick in this year's draft, right? That's pretty interesting.

I do think it only takes one GM who values him more, but it is a really huge indictment of the bet Colangelo made that a year later Fultz is worth materially less than either pick he was traded for.

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I know we are all looking for something to talk about, but it's impossible to value Fultz without seeing him on the court and talking to him. I'm sure every GM - including whoever ends up wiht PHI - would want to hear how he's working on his jumper and see what may have changed before they even entertained a deal for him.

wade boggs chicken dinner said:

Not sure what you mean "without the benefit of hindsight" - you mean based solely on Fultz's draft evaluation without taking into account the last year or something different

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Yes; just based on the quality of the prospect that Fultz was at the time, without taking into account the disaster of his season.

bowiac said:

Yes; just based on the quality of the prospect that Fultz was at the time, without taking into account the disaster of his season.

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What about with the benefit of hindsight? If the Sixers shopped Fultz today, could they get the 12th pick in the draft for him?

I like to think if we could all go back in time knowing what we know now, PHI would still take Fultz number 1, only they'd intervene and stop whatever the fuck happened to him.

That intervention probably would've involved getting Drew Hanlen involved with Markelle Fultz (and probably keeping that shooting coach away from Fultz's mom, if you believe the twitter accounts) instead of Jayson Tatum.

DavidTai said:

That intervention probably would've involved getting Drew Hanlen involved with Markelle Fultz (and probably keeping that shooting coach away from Fultz's mom, if you believe the twitter accounts) instead of Jayson Tatum.

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Point: Danny.

Somehow. Maybe two or three points. It's hard to even say.

Reverend said:

I like to think if we could all go back in time knowing what we know now, PHI would still take Fultz number 1, only they'd intervene and stop whatever the fuck happened to him.

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What if it happened before they drafted him? I guess he was decent in Summer league but I'm not sure that means much.

bosox79 said:

What if it happened before they drafted him? I guess he was decent in Summer league but I'm not sure that means much.

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Whatever happened to Fultz' perimeter shot.....whether it be mental, physical or a combination.....began between his knee issues at the end of his Washington season and summer league prior to escalating once he reported to Sixers camp. His release point in college was very normal with his release point just in front of his forehead. In summer league, his release point was noticeably different at several inches in front of his forehead...….he even banked one in from the top of the key one game. Stuff was happening early on with him and I do wonder if it was evident in his workouts.

bosox79 said:

What if it happened before they drafted him? I guess he was decent in Summer league but I'm not sure that means much.

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I guess we won’t know for sure until we see whether or not Philly decides to redraft him or not.

PedroKsBambino said:

Seems like four of us---even using somewhat different ways to get there---all have Fultz value as being a teens/early 20s first round pick in this year's draft, right? That's pretty interesting.

I do think it only takes one GM who values him more, but it is a really huge indictment of the bet Colangelo made that a year later Fultz is worth materially less than either pick he was traded for.

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I think you guys are all significantly underrating him. If nothing else, he's a variance play that should appeal to teams that don't have (m)any realistic options for acquiring an upper tier prospect.

I think if he were simply in this year's draft he goes no lower than 13. Of course, there is also the financial issue, which "where would he go in this year's draft" doesn't really address. But the impact of the high (for a younger player) salary is asymmetric - for teams below the cap or with $7 million in salary to send back it wouldn't be an issue.

If I'm Boston, I'd send Morris+Yabu+27 for Fultz. And if Marcus signed I'd send Rozier+Morris. Philly has no need for Morris but plenty of teams do have that need so a 3 way deal would be easy to find. At worst I think you have a legit talent who needs to be on the floor with shooters.

Interesting thread here, with quotes from Hanlen about working with Fultz:

Remember when it was really obvious he had the yips and everyone was bending over backwards to try to find reasons to believe the BS the Phillys front office was spewing?

Between the recent Philly front office drama and this, we can put that to bed now, yeah?

Kenny F'ing Powers said:

Remember when it was really obvious he had the yips and everyone was bending over backwards to try to find reasons to believe the BS the Phillys front office was spewing?

Between the recent Philly front office drama and this, we can put that to bed now, yeah?

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I think this would be easier to do if anyone had any fucking idea what "The Yips" actually is.

Reverend said:

I think this would be easier to do if anyone had any fucking idea what "The Yips" actually is.

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I dunno. I think theres a pretty standard core concept behind it, although intricacies are different in each case.

Kenny F'ing Powers said:

I dunno. I think theres a pretty standard core concept behind it, although intricacies are different in each case.

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That core concept being...?

Reverend said:

That core concept being...?

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A nervous mental block that prevents you from performing a typically routine action?

It began sometime between the end of his college season and summer league then gained further momentum from there.

I disagree above saying he goes no lower than 13. I can't see a team selecting a complete enigma prior to the low to mid-20's when you begin taking blind fliers on guys like Simons. If I had to place him somewhere in my list it would be around 25 or so.

A mental block that can, in fairness, come from injury...
Anyway hanlen is saying he's way ahead of schedule. So we shall see.

LondonSox said:

A mental block that can, in fairness, come from injury...
Anyway hanlen is saying he's way ahead of schedule. So we shall see.

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Sure. The most important aspects - why, how to fix it, etc - are also probably the most variable.

HomeRunBaker said:

A nervous mental block that prevents you from performing a typically routine action?

It began sometime between the end of his college season and summer league then gained further momentum from there.

I disagree above saying he goes no lower than 13. I can't see a team selecting a complete enigma prior to the low to mid-20's when you begin taking blind fliers on guys like Simons. If I had to place him somewhere in my list it would be around 25 or so.

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Yeah. I'm questioning the notion that how the Yips actually work is well understood. Like, we know it's a thing. We don't understand it.

Reverend said:

Yeah. I'm questioning the notion that how the Yips actually work is well understood. Like, we know it's a thing. We don't understand it.

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Indeed, but it a mystery
We don't understand it like at all when it comes without injury. When it comes from injury we understand it a bit better (avoiding a motion that hurt, it's hard to start making yourself do it again, though not why it happens for some and not others)

LondonSox said:

Indeed, but it a mystery
We don't understand it like at all when it comes without injury. When it comes from injury we understand it a bit better (avoiding a motion that hurt, it's hard to start making yourself do it again, though not why it happens for some and not others)

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But in fact a persistent inability to resume very basic mechanics is not that common after a physical injury. How many hand/arm/shoulder injuries have we seen in the NBA? How many times have we seen this result?

snowmanny said:

But in fact a persistent inability to resume very basic mechanics is not that common after a physical injury. How many hand/arm/shoulder injuries have we seen in the NBA? How many times have we seen this result?

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Fair, ok we just don't understand it.

Reverend said:

Yeah. I'm questioning the notion that how the Yips actually work is well understood. Like, we know it's a thing. We don't understand it.

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Soon people will start worshipping it as a deity. Like the Consiglio golf ball.

Why am I not surprised?

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/other-sports/76ers-indicate-markelle-fultz-is-unlikely-to-play-in-summer-league/

Big John said:

Why am I not surprised?

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/other-sports/76ers-indicate-markelle-fultz-is-unlikely-to-play-in-summer-league/

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To be fair, Hanlen thought the shot rebuilding process would take 6 weeks, give or take. It's probably highly counterproductive to put him into game situations during that process.

I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll see real Markelle Fultz sometime in 2018-2019, which would be good for the NBA.

I also wonder if, in the scenario where Fultz recovers his jumper, he has sort of a come-to-Jesus/near-death-experience attitude shift wrt defense, and sees the importance of effort given how close he is/would have been to washing out of the league.

lovegtm said:

I also wonder if, in the scenario where Fultz recovers his jumper, he has sort of a come-to-Jesus/near-death-experience attitude shift wrt defense, and sees the importance of effort given how close he is/would have been to washing out of the league.

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Yeah, I think this is very interesting. Fultz’s worst case is a Robertson type D-only player. He is physically up for that role. Maybe this experience will help sharpen his focus on D because that’s the only sure way of guaranteeing he has time to fix his jumper. Maybe the 76ers end up with a great player. Maybe. He should know now that he’s not a luxury player with zero ability to hit anything from beyond 15ft.

lovegtm said:

To be fair, Hanlen thought the shot rebuilding process would take 6 weeks, give or take. It's probably highly counterproductive to put him into game situations during that process.

I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll see real Markelle Fultz sometime in 2018-2019, which would be good for the NBA.

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I'd be very surprised. Shooting a basketball requires unconscious thought while relying solely on instinct. I can't envision where a guy has his head so screwed up to where he is consciously thinking about every shot and then simply being able to reverse this process.

For him to be that mentally messed up to begin with (I won't say mentally weak since we don't even know what this is) to where he even begins thinking about his shot and release doesn't bode well on his ability to be mentally reverse back to normal (if that makes any sense). The more you "work" on fixing the mental part doesn't that result in "thinking" which is the opposite of what any shooter should be doing? I'm writing as I'm thinking so not even sure if it makes any sense but it seems to me like this could get worse before it gets better.

Apisith said:

Yeah, I think this is very interesting. Fultz’s worst case is a Robertson type D-only player. He is physically up for that role. Maybe this experience will help sharpen his focus on D because that’s the only sure way of guaranteeing he has time to fix his jumper. Maybe the 76ers end up with a great player. Maybe. He should know now that he’s not a luxury player with zero ability to hit anything from beyond 15ft.

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I remember his D in college as being fairly pathetic. You think that's going to change to Robertson levels?

HomeRunBaker said:

I'd be very surprised. Shooting a basketball requires unconscious thought while relying solely on instinct. I can't envision where a guy has his head so screwed up to where he is consciously thinking about every shot and then simply being able to reverse this process.

For him to be that mentally messed up to begin with (I won't say mentally weak since we don't even know what this is) to where he even begins thinking about his shot and release doesn't bode well on his ability to be mentally reverse back to normal (if that makes any sense). The more you "work" on fixing the mental part doesn't that result in "thinking" which is the opposite of what any shooter should be doing? I'm writing as I'm thinking so not even sure if it makes any sense but it seems to me like this could get worse before it gets better.

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There are occasions where it's just a confidence thing and if Hanlan can get him trusting his mechanics again, that will go a long way.

But it's weird how Fultz seems to shy away from competition (DISCLAIMER: yes this is total speculation on my part and may be completely off base) . . . .

wade boggs chicken dinner said:

There are occasions where it's just a confidence thing and if Hanlan can get him trusting his mechanics again, that will go a long way.

But it's weird how Fultz seems to shy away from competition (DISCLAIMER: yes this is total speculation on my part and may be completely off base) . . . .

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If it was simply missing shots then I could buy that it is a confidence thing. His mechanics have fundamentally changed from college to summer league and then from SL to whatever we saw from him last season.

Either way, it cannot be discounted that Fultz was a Colangelo pick and whoever the new GM is will have a drastically shorter leash (insert collar joke) with him than Colangelo would have. I don't see him long for Philly.

HomeRunBaker said:

If it was simply missing shots then I could buy that it is a confidence thing. His mechanics have fundamentally changed from college to summer league and then from SL to whatever we saw from him last season.

Either way, it cannot be discounted that Fultz was a Colangelo pick and whoever the new GM is will have a drastically shorter leash (insert collar joke) with him than Colangelo would have. I don't see him long for Philly.

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I think this ignores the fact that currently the power in the organization is Brett Brown who took Fultz under his wing and they clearly have a very close relationship.
But it's possible.
As for missing summer league I think the writing has been on the wall from the beginning. Give him more time to work on it.

I also think the mental weakness type stuff forgets he didn't make the varsity team in high school and busted his ass to get to number one pick vs listen to whichever shit coach thought he wasn't good enough for a varsity high school team.

I think he goes if he's the difference in landing a proven star but not otherwise. He's worth more to the sixers than anyone else.

Big John said:

Why am I not surprised?

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/other-sports/76ers-indicate-markelle-fultz-is-unlikely-to-play-in-summer-league/

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I feel like I don't have enough information to know

LondonSox said:

I think this ignores the fact that currently the power in the organization is Brett Brown who took Fultz under his wing and they clearly have a very close relationship.
But it's possible.
As for missing summer league I think the writing has been on the wall from the beginning. Give him more time to work on it.

I also think the mental weakness type stuff forgets he didn't make the varsity team in high school and busted his ass to get to number one pick vs listen to whichever shit coach thought he wasn't good enough for a varsity high school team.

I think he goes if he's the difference in landing a proven star but not otherwise. He's worth more to the sixers than anyone else.

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It's going to be so complicated for me to root for this kid while he's on the '76ers.

Assuming the organization is not complicit in his problems and is a source of support--which I have reason to believe from your reports and some other looking around--then I hope he does great there and dunks all over the haters and those who didn't believe. That said, if this is Philly's fault, I hope he gets it together somewhere else and dunks all over Philly... or passes to people who dunk on them, whatever.

I really want this kid to succeed, I guess that's what I'm trying to say. The dunking on fools who messed with him part might be a bit petty, but what is sports for but for to vicariously dunk on fools through others?

LondonSox said:

I think this ignores the fact that currently the power in the organization is Brett Brown who took Fultz under his wing and they clearly have a very close relationship.
But it's possible.

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Agreed. I'm assuming that Brown is a placeholder until the new guy steps in. If Brown does take over permenently my opinion will obviously be affected by this change.

Reverend said:

I feel like I don't have enough information to know


It's going to be so complicated for me to root for this kid while he's on the '76ers.

Assuming the organization is not complicit in his problems and is a source of support--which I have reason to believe from your reports and some other looking around--then I hope he does great there and dunks all over the haters and those who didn't believe. That said, if this is Philly's fault, I hope he gets it together somewhere else and dunks all over Philly... or passes to people who dunk on them, whatever.

I really want this kid to succeed, I guess that's what I'm trying to say. The dunking on fools who messed with him part might be a bit petty, but what is sports for but for to vicariously dunk on fools through others?

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If the sixers are responsible for breaking him I hope he goes elsewhere and succeeds too tbh.
He seems a really good kid, I was delighted how supportive of him the fans were on his return. Philly has a certain reputation which it has not thus far lived up to for Fultz. Despite the media douchebags trying.

I wonder about the impact of Rights to Ricky Sanchez. This is such a cult following that has stood up to the team repeatedly (billboards over Hinkie eg) and the lottery party is now thousands of people paying. One of the loudest voices in sixers fandom is not pro the owners or management (esp now), they have no access and nothing to lose so they call it as they see it. Not unusual in the days of podcasts and blogs maybe but they have more influence than most I think it's far to say

None of the work means anything until he is able to do it in games though. He will need game experience and the summer league seems like a good place for that.

Yeah, because then it's preseason, where there will be a lot more eyes on him. Game action now would, I think, give them a baseline.

That's above my pay grade though.