He had an Reb/36 over 9.5, which was the question asked. He also has the 2 highest rebound rate % from a 1 in NBA history. Whether that is to the detriment of his team or not is another question all together. I'm not a huge Westbrook fan.
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He had an Reb/36 over 9.5, which was the question asked. He also has the 2 highest rebound rate % from a 1 in NBA history. Whether that is to the detriment of his team or not is another question all together. I'm not a huge Westbrook fan.
Another way of thinking about "rebounding by a guard" is akin to "assists by a center" -- historically infrequent, so what we're looking at is really just the emergence of a few unusual talents in NBA history:
Sid Moncrief, Fat Lever, Alvin Robertson, Darrell Walker, Jason Kidd, Stevie Francis, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook.
Before anyone gets too excited, there are also scrubs like Felipe Lopez pretty high on the list. And surprisingly, Fred Hoiberg (?).
However, Murray and Rozier are both way high up on the list. They are unusually good rebounders for guards, even accounting for how changes in defensive tactics have shifted the distribution of rebounds. Certainly you aren't going to have some guy like Swen Nater scooping up a billion rebounds a game anymore (nevermind Wilt and Russell numbers).
Sid Moncrief, Fat Lever, Alvin Robertson, Darrell Walker, Jason Kidd, Stevie Francis, Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook.
Before anyone gets too excited, there are also scrubs like Felipe Lopez pretty high on the list. And surprisingly, Fred Hoiberg (?).
However, Murray and Rozier are both way high up on the list. They are unusually good rebounders for guards, even accounting for how changes in defensive tactics have shifted the distribution of rebounds. Certainly you aren't going to have some guy like Swen Nater scooping up a billion rebounds a game anymore (nevermind Wilt and Russell numbers).
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Well I guess that opens the doors for a Leonard to Philly for Covington/Fultz/Saric/#10/2019 #1 deal.
I’d say that looks like a good deal for SA, but I have no idea what Fultz’ trade value is right now. It has to be less than any #1 pick 12 months afterward in recent memory, except for Anthony Bennett. What’s the comparable Celtic asset? Kings pick? Memphis pick? Rozier?
Fultz has to be viewed as a salary filler + lottery ticket at this point. Sure, there's the chance that he turns it around in a new system, but there are no guarantees. You just have no idea what you're going to get. The value in any trade which includes him is coming from the other assets...which is why the 76ers should just keep him.
I see the Spurs biding their time here. They’re certainly not going to trade Kawhi for some Tobias Harris/late lotto pick pupu platter. An Ingram/Kuzma deal won’t be enough to trade him to a WC rival. The bad teams like Phoenix and Sacramento won’t be offering their top 3 picks so that probably rules them out unless Spurs really like a package around Josh Jackson and picks. If I’m SA, I might do that.
Regardless, if/when they deal Kawhi, it’s probably going to be to an EC team. Philly will obviously be motivated here but Fultz is untradable at this point and Saric/Covington/#10 is a decent package but one that probably wouldn’t excite SA because there are no building block types unless the #10 is a surprise hit.
I think the Spurs would love to get Ainge involved because it would mean either Kyrie, Jaylen, and/or some valuable future picks in Sac/Mem. My gut says Brett Brown GM extraordinaire gets the deal done with his former employer.
Regardless, if/when they deal Kawhi, it’s probably going to be to an EC team. Philly will obviously be motivated here but Fultz is untradable at this point and Saric/Covington/#10 is a decent package but one that probably wouldn’t excite SA because there are no building block types unless the #10 is a surprise hit.
I think the Spurs would love to get Ainge involved because it would mean either Kyrie, Jaylen, and/or some valuable future picks in Sac/Mem. My gut says Brett Brown GM extraordinaire gets the deal done with his former employer.
That offer looks markedly better than what it seemed Jimmy Butler or Paul George fetched last year (unless you knew how good Oladipo would be, in which case, good for you). It's better than what Boogie was dealt for. It's probably better than what Orlando got for Dwight, and it's definitely better than what Denver got for Melo. I'd say it's probably somewhat comparable to what Kyrie fetched, depending how much you discount Fultz.
Given the injury situation with Kawhi, and that nobody is going to want to trade for him without assurances that he'll re-sign there, I think that offer exceeds the likely return in the end.
Given the injury situation with Kawhi, and that nobody is going to want to trade for him without assurances that he'll re-sign there, I think that offer exceeds the likely return in the end.
Both the Lakers and Clippers are said to be concerned with his health. Wonder if it is just to blow smokescreen and bring his price down, to safe face, or that they really worry about his health.
If in play, and a strong shot at him resigning, the Clippers should offer all they have for him.
If in play, and a strong shot at him resigning, the Clippers should offer all they have for him.
You don’t hold Fultz back from a Leonard trade in hopes that he gets past his issues. If anything you make like Cleveland and include them in a trade for a star.
I’m not saying you hold him back. But I doubt very much that Fultz is a must have from Spurs perspective. I contend trade value just isn’t there, which is why I think you’re better off holding onto hm. If my assumption is wrong, then obviously the calculus changes.
That is a pretty damaging leak if its true. They are just giving away the only leverage they have.
Kawhi, when healthy at least, is a significantly better player than all those players though. He's a legitimate franchise cornerstone. I don't think the NBA has seen a player of that caliber traded since KG in 2008 if you exclude Harden, who wasn't at that level at that point. Perhaps Chris Paul was on that level, but other than that, no one of his caliber gets traded.
Times like this I wish FJM were still in business. Reasons, according to this piece, that Kawhi Leonard will not traded to another team in the West:
I'm gonna save everyone some time -- this sentence, which is never brought up again or explained, is the most convincing reason mentioned in the entire article.
So to summarize: Pop is vindictive and will opt for a diminished trade return and make his team worse because he "philosophically opposes" Kawhi going to LA, and instead will send Kawhi East, even though he can only be banished to the East for one season, a season during which the Spurs, without Kawhi, won't be contenders, before he has the option of coming back to the West.
BTW, what if Kawhi actually doesn't mind playing out East, especially if it's with a contender or perhaps even where LeBron also ends up? Like what if he prefers LA all else being equal, but would love to play for a stacked Celtics team over a middling Clippers squad? Wouldn't that also be a positive outcome for Kawhi, which so far is the thing I am supposed to believe Pop is philosophically opposed to? If this is what actually motivates Pop, shouldn't a moribund franchise that Kawhi would hate be the odds-on favorite?
So Pop and Leonard might still have to deal with each other post-trade because of USA Basketball, thus might have an incentive to come together on a trade that's mutually agreeable, except that, lest we forget, rosters can change so much that maybe Kawhi might not be on the team and Pop might not ever have to see him again, because, as you may remember, Emeka Okafor can't score.
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This is so close to perfect the way it's written I almost feel bad for dickishly rephrasing. Almost. But, in other words:
If Ainge wants to keep Kyrie Irving, the Spurs, in a hypothetical trade involving Kawhi Leonard, would probably be happy to take, to fill their massive hole at point guard because Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray died recently in the volcanic eruption that also wiped out the 30 other teams offering more attractive trade packages, a single cost-controlled season of Terry Rozier.
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Jaylen Brown + a resigned Marcus Smart + MEM pick seems like a decent value trade for SAS if Kawhi is truly demanding a trade. SAS gets a young wing with tons of potential in Jaylen, a pain in the ass defender in Smart who will make for a terrible shooting backcourt with Murray but a terror on the defensive end (and if anyone can make that work it's Pop), and a potential top lotto pick with MEM pick
I personally think SA would be crazy to pass up a deal like that if it were ever offered. Of course, I can see them trying to attach Mills’ contract to any Kawhi trade. He’s not a bad player by any stretch but I’m not paying 12M / year for a 6’ backup PG who turns 30 in a couple months.
I know this isn't a real offer anyway, but PHI can't move their 2019 1st, right? Because it's a contingency in the Tatum deal if SAC ends up #1.
I was wondering the same. Maybe Philly would have to drop protection on the Celtics pick - would make this year's tankathon more fun.
For me, Fultz is the rare asset who might have more value to other teams than his present team - at least to other teams with proven track records of developing young talent - because of how his current team has treated him. A fresh start for him outside of Philly might be what he needs to develop his potential.
This was exactly what I was thinking except in my version I swapped this year’s first for the MEM pick.
Brown and Smart seem like the sorts of players that Pop would like, especially in return for Kawhi (returning two team-first players over an alleged malcontent).
From Boston’s POV, they upgrade Brown to Kawhi with the hope that the Stephens culture along with the depth of their roster can convince Kawhi to re-sign, which also provides some protection against Kyrie walking.
But then Philly would be risking trading away the #1 overall pick, and avoiding that risk was the reason for the protection in the first place.
He just missed essentially the entire season, I don't think it's a smokescreen to be worried about his health.
You're correct SA would be crazy to pass on that deal, which is why Ainge would never do it. Jaylen Brown on his own is much better value than Paul George or Jimmy Butler fetched, when you account for Oladipo not being valued highly at the time. Kawhi is far better than either of those two, but he's in a similar contract situation, and has much more injury uncertainty.
Jaylen + Smart on its own is better value than the proposed Philly packages. It also tops Tobias Harris + 12/13, as well as anything the Lakers can offer (unless the Spurs are huge Lonzo believers and LA is willing to do Ball+Ingram).
The Celtics have shown time and again that they are not going to be extorted relative to other teams' trade packages simply because they have a lot of assets, and the strategy has proven sound. The one time it looked like they might be overpaying, it turned out that they had a lot of inside info as to Isaiah's hip, a good evaluation of Brooklyn's 2018 pick prospects, and a solid evaluation of Jae Crowder as a replaceable system player.
But they would be getting Kawhi Leonard and chances are it isn't going to be #1. The Celtics risked trading away the #1 overall pick this year for Kyrie Irving.
Agreed. Ainge won't rule anything out because he knows he has the assets to acquire Kawhi without too much disruption to the team. He's going to stick around to make sure that Philly can't get him too cheaply. I also think the Spurs are going to slow play this one unless someone blows them away with an offer, which clearly nobody is going to based on historical precedence.
Wouldnt acquiring Kawhi, while escalating the "Championship Contender" window to Next year, also escalate the Cap Crunch window? Assuming that Kyrie wants to or would stay that seems like alot of high end talent coming up for renewal all about the same time you want to lock down Tatum for the next 10.
It would certainly make things a lot more costly for the owners if the package is centered around Jaylen and not Kyrie. The repeater tax is so punitive that I can't see the team trading for Kawhi unless they don't think that Kyrie is going to stick around after this season. If that were the case, you would effectively be replacing Kyrie's cap slot with Kawhi's after next year and would use Sac 2019 to hopefully backfill the cheap elite talent that you lost with Jaylen.
There really isn't a whole lot of incentive for Ainge to trade for Kawhi at this point given how much Jaylen improved last year, especially when there are real questions about Kawhi's health.
Yeah, having four guys on max contracts in 19-20 without Brown's rookie deal to kinda offset the crunch seems like the biggest problem. I know the ownership group is willing to spend and it's not my money, but at some point it becomes unrealistic. Kyrie and Leonard, as former champs, don't seem like the type of players that are going to entertain a cut to keep the band together. I don't fault them for that at all. I think we just roll back the same team unless there's a true bargain to be had.
@Deathofthebambino has me convinced the Celtics team as constructed is winning it all next year, so this all strikes me as both fascinating but rather abstract.
Yes. That's why dealing Kyrie or Hayward or Horford (instead of Brown ++) for Kawhi makes more fiscal sense to the Celtics for years to come. Kyrie + Hayward + Horford + Kawhi won't work cap wise. Kyrie is the most likely to be offered IMHO.
Replacing Kawhi with Kyrie also makes fiscal sense for the Spurs. They stay away from (1) the Super Max for a fickle Kawhi (2) add Kyrie @ a lower future contract. Kyrie also had SA on his wish list last season. Probably a higher % chance KI comes back to SA in 2019 than Kawhi (w/ LA on his mind)
I'm there too. Bring on the draft and summer league, enough with silly trade rumor season.
Am I the only one who wants nothing to do with moving any assets for Kawhi? Seriously injured malcontent headed into contract year and will cost major assets to get. Pass. Let someone else have him.
Yes they can. When they trade their own first they are trading to the acquiring team the right to swap picks with the Kings should the pick be the first pick in the draft. The only way the pick goes to Boston is if the swap occurs, in which case the Spurs are drafting first and Boston in the 20s.
Bingo.
Indeed, when you run the numbers the 2020 Celtics would have five guys (Tatum being the fifth) making a combined $140 million+. Those luxury taxes would get crippling pretty quickly.
I have been pondering it, if Boston could ink Smart to a long term deal at moderate money (say 4/45-50), I almost wouldn't mind a deal built around Irving/secondary picks for Leonard. Boston could roll out a death time lineup of Brown/Leonard/Hayward/Tatum/Horford and there ain't a team in the NBA that's going to score on it in the closing minutes of a game.
They are going to win it all next year. Tatum was playing the game at an all star level in the playoffs. Now he has a summer to train. He's going to be a top 15 guy next year, lined up alongside one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA, one of the best closers in the NBA, and an all star F. That's before we get to Jaylen Brown. Irving is a weak link in that nightmarishly switchy defense, but then he's a stone cold killer in the fourth quarter.
I don't want him unless it's something ridiculous like Morris, Yabu, a sign and trade of Smart and the Celtics first this year. And there's just no chance the Spurs do that.
Malcontent seems like too strong a criticism for Kawhi. He got hurt, they cleared him, and he got hurt again. He doesn't trust the medical staff and feels betrayed by the organization. I know the Spurs are a model franchise but their track record with Kawhi and his health isn't great.
The parallels between this and Bill Walton/Blazers in '78 are just uncanny.
The parallels between this and Bill Walton/Blazers in '78 are just uncanny.
Assuming LeBron goes to LA, I don't want Kawhi at the current estimated Jaylen + price because I don't think he'd really be needed and he'd complicate the cap. However, if LeBron unexpectedly decides to go to Philly, then I may change my mind. Kawhi has been my favorite non-Celtics for a few years now. He would be an absolute menace with Stevens so I'm keeping the door open. Superstars like him rarely become available and sometimes when they do, you just have to roll the dice. There is certainly plenty here to give the Celtics pause. If this were 2016 and not 2018, Ainge would be all over Kawhi in a trade.
If the Celtics get Kawhi, the far more likely scenario has to be LeBron coming to Boston, right? I’d be more than fine letting Brown, Smart, salary filler, draft picks, and one of Kyrie/Al go to get those two guys on board. I’d want at least two years from LeBron, though. And without LeBron coming, I’m not giving up Brown for Kawhi.
Tatum/Hayward/Al/LeBron/Kawhi
My goodness.
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The LeBron angle is definitely an unknown that could change things. If LeBron REALLY wants to play with Kawhi and the Spurs basically stick their middle finger up at the Lakers, then he could potentially look for alternative landing spots and Boston would definitely be a better one than Philly. Boston could certainly facilitate that to create a new Big 4 of LeBron/Kawhi/Tatum/Hayward. Obviously not likely at all since LeBron is probably going to LA but I'm sure Danny will at least investigate.
Okay, let's kill two birds with one stone. How about the Cavs do a sign and trade: Lebron for Kawhi + Patty Mills? Spurs are happy, Pop is vindictively happy, Cleveland gets Kawhi (at the price of Mills) for a departing Lebron. Lebron joins a playoff team with a real coach.
This makes it seem like you don’t think the window already starts next year by adding Kyrie and Hayward to the team.
Fair Point.
At this point I dont know what to think. I want to believe, and they certainly tried hard in the playoffs to convince me even without KI and Gordan.
It all comes down to how an Ankle and a Knee recover. I am hoping for the best, but am still cautious.
If they come back 95-100% then yea this team is bad ass.
I bet that LeBron would love to play for Pop, but not if it requires playing in San Antonio. If the guy thinks Houston isn't his scene, I'm not sure why he'd think SA is much better. I'm guessing that he (and his wife and kids) want to be in LA.