Bogaerts vs Gregorius

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Jerry’s Curl

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Both Xander Bogaerts and Didi Gregorius are off to amazing starts for their respective teams. If you had to pick one right now, who is the better overall SS and why?
 

Murderer's Crow

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They both have pros and cons offensively and neither stands out and remarkably better than the other. How is Xander in the clubhouse? Didi is the spark plug in the dugout.
 

Rasputin

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Before 2004 I was all over this kind of shit. Now it's just exhausting.
 

jon abbey

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Melky vs. Coco!!

Xander is 20 months younger and has always been considered the more talented prospect/player, Didi I'm pretty sure is better defensively (although metrics have always seemed to underrate him somewhat) and has improved his hitting every year. Both are scheduled to be FAs following 2019, so if both hit the FA market, we'll see who gets a bigger deal.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Melky vs. Coco!!

Xander is 20 months younger and has always been considered the more talented prospect/player, Didi I'm pretty sure is better defensively (although metrics have always seemed to underrate him somewhat) and has improved his hitting every year. Both are scheduled to be FAs following 2019, so if both hit the FA market, we'll see who gets a bigger deal.
Out of curiosity, I tried to find a case where semi-relevant shortstops were signed by division rivals during the same free agency period. Didn't find anything. If Machado was a free agent in 2019, there would be a fun potential for 3 divisional teams to trade SSs.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Melky vs. Coco!!

Xander is 20 months younger and has always been considered the more talented prospect/player, Didi I'm pretty sure is better defensively (although metrics have always seemed to underrate him somewhat) and has improved his hitting every year. Both are scheduled to be FAs following 2019, so if both hit the FA market, we'll see who gets a bigger deal.
Isn't Xander 30 months younger? 2.18.1990 for Didi and 10.1.1992 for Bogaerts. And aren't those 30 months pretty meaningful, especially when they hit FA? At 28, Didi is firmly in his prime and when he hits the FA market at 29 going on 30, suitors are going to be looking at potential downslope of his career. In contrast, Bogaerts, having just turned 25, is still pre-prime and, when he hits FA just after turning 27, suitors are look at a prime-age player.
 

Pitt the Elder

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In other words, at Xander's age, Didi's only full-ish season came at age 23 when he had 404 PA, 6 HR, and an OPS+ of 94. Xanders best season also came at age 23 when he had 652 PAs, 21 HR, and an OPS+ of 111.

I mean, who would you spend more money on?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Melky vs. Coco!!

Xander is 20 months younger and has always been considered the more talented prospect/player, Didi I'm pretty sure is better defensively (although metrics have always seemed to underrate him somewhat) and has improved his hitting every year. Both are scheduled to be FAs following 2019, so if both hit the FA market, we'll see who gets a bigger deal.
32, actually (Feb. 1990 to Oct. 1992 = two years + 8 months). But otherwise, I think you're right. Didi is the better defender, but Xander is a somewhat better hitter and baserunner.

FWIW, FG thinks it's been a virtual tie in value-per-opportunity so far (Didi: 2.94 fWAR/600 PA; Xander: 2.96), while BBref likes Didi a little better (2.87 to 2.49). This makes sense since I think BBref uses DRS, which really hates Xander's glove, for the defensive component, while FG uses UZR which is kinder to him.

I think the best argument for Xander is that he may not have peaked yet, while Didi probably has.
 

jon abbey

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Whoops, my bad on the early morning (for me) age subtraction, sorry.

I think the best argument for Xander is that he may not have peaked yet, while Didi probably has.
Is that just based on age? Didi has been better every year he's been in NY so far, and early returns so far in 2018 are that he will be continuing that trend.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Is that just based on age? Didi has been better every year he's been in NY so far, and early returns so far in 2018 are that he will be continuing that trend.
It's a combination of age -- a 25-year-old seems like a much likelier candidate for substantial improvement than a 28-year-old, though of course all things are possible -- and the fact that Didi's minor league record doesn't suggest nearly as much untapped offensive upside as Xander's.
 

foulkehampshire

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Didi's dead-pull profile allows him to make the most of the power he has. He's aggressive and puts the bat on the ball, and in the air more often than not. He's in a good park and division for his offensive skill set. Defensively a plus as well.
 

Jerry’s Curl

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Didi's dead-pull profile allows him to make the most of the power he has. He's aggressive and puts the bat on the ball, and in the air more often than not. He's in a good park and division for his offensive skill set. Defensively a plus as well.
So on a neutral field, do you like X better?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'd take Xander because I think this is the year he starts hitting for power and has an ISO close to .200 like he did in the minors. His bat will carry his glove.
 

foulkehampshire

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So on a neutral field, do you like X better?
I like Xander better regardless. I see him as a more stable player due to his ability to impact the game offensively in multiple ways, including on the base-paths.

Didi will have to luck his way to a 2017 repeat. His exit velocity isn't all that impressive and the rest of his toolset doesn't really support him well if the fluky pull HR rate drops.
 

burstnbloom

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I think they are pretty close in terms of on the field production right now, but Xander is the obvious choice because he is so much younger and still has a lot of projection. You can reasonably expect him to be a lot better going forward than he was last year. He is just beginning his age 25 season and his history says last year was a pretty steep negative outlier. Didi is beginning his age 28 season and in his breakout year last year wOBA of .335 (a number Xander has already bested twice in his career) is likely close to his peak. When Didi was Xander's age he hit .265/.318/.370 in his first year for the Yankees. That is considerably worse than Xander has been in any season since 2014.
 

jon abbey

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I'm honestly not taking sides here, but since this thread was bumped, it's worth noting two things about Didi:

1) He has 8 walks already this year in 39 PAs, after only 25 all of 2017 (590 PAs). If that keeps up, that is a major improvement. His career high is just 33, in 2015.

2) I was pretty shocked to see a few days ago that he actually was much better on the road last year than he was at home, .251/.281/.426 at home and .321/.354/.528 on the road, so his improvement is not based on hitting HRs into the short porch in the Bronx.
 

burstnbloom

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One would think he is what he is at this point in his career. He might see some modest improvement to his plate discipline, but it's likely to be marginal.

I read and article about Didi last year on Fangraphs (it is still on his page over there) that said he has the lowest exit velocity of any player that hit 10 home runs last year and is hitting almost every ball that he pulls in the air. The guy is actively trying to hit home runs, and clearly its working but again, he is about what he's going to be at this point. He's very well suited for the park he plays in and he's going to have some good seasons serving balls just over the fence in Yankee stadium. His home road splits are almost all about BABIP which his isoD and iso being pretty much the same (.030H/.033A, .175H/.207A). His BABIP difference is .070 higher on the road and the batted ball profile is pretty similar too.

All that said, Xander pretty much matched him last year despite being terrible after he hurt his wrist. Given the difference in age and track record, this feels like an easy choice.
 

sean1562

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I love Xander but this is getting ridiculous. The guy is turning into an MVP candidate
 

jon abbey

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Best OPS in baseball right now, a ridiculous 1.285.

It is worth noting that all 9 HRs so far have been at home, but in 2017, he hit more on the road (and his two against Kluber in game 5 of the ALDS were in CLE).
 

jon abbey

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Also it is worth remembering that Dombrowski facilitated the Didi to NY deal, a three way trade when he was the DET GM. ARI got Robbie Ray, NY got Didi, and DET got Shane Greene, not DD's finest moment.

"I tried to get Didi every which way from Arizona,” Cashman said. “We just didn’t match up. Finally, I knew Dave (Dombrowski, then the Tigers GM) loved Shane Greene, so I went to him and said, ‘Listen, I’ll give you Greene if you work something out with Arizona so I get Gregorius.’ And he was able to get it done in 48 hours.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/harper-surprise-turnaround-didi-playing-yanks-mvp-article-1.2348342
 

jon abbey

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I didn't start the thread or bump it tonight, and I don't actually think he will end up with a peak Barry Bonds season, but it's not projecting anything to say that he has somehow been the best hitter in baseball so far, and it hasn't really been close. As amazing as Mookie has been, he is somehow more than 100 OPS points behind in second. Also look at the BB/K ratios of the top guys, only Harper is up there with him.

 

Sale4CY

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Didi is taking advantage of that short porch perfectly but this home performance is not sustainable at all. That’s no mark on him, but he’s not f’ing Barry Bonds.

I saw a stat somewhere that he has among the lowest average exit velocities in baseball. That hints at a pretty severe regression coming up.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Didi is taking advantage of that short porch perfectly but this home performance is not sustainable at all. That’s no mark on him, but he’s not f’ing Barry Bonds.

I saw a stat somewhere that he has among the lowest average exit velocities in baseball. That hints at a pretty severe regression coming up.
He’s walking more and hitting the ball harder this year. His splits are exaggerated this year but he hit more HRs on the road last year than at home.

No, he’s not Barry Bonds but his sample size is now large enough over a couple seasons to stop thinking some major regression is coming. He’s got a great eye, great approach at the plate, and he will have lots of opportunities in this lineup.
 

Sale4CY

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He’s walking more and hitting the ball harder this year. His splits are exaggerated this year but he hit more HRs on the road last year than at home.

No, he’s not Barry Bonds but his sample size is now large enough over a couple seasons to stop thinking some major regression is coming. He’s got a great eye, great approach at the plate, and he will have lots of opportunities in this lineup.
The walks are such an increase over every other year of his career that I need to see more than one month to be convinced he’s now Joey Votto.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The walks are such an increase over every other year of his career that I need to see more than one month to be convinced he’s now Joey Votto.
The sample size is still small, but the drop in his swing rates is quite dramatic and probably explains the walk rate spike. In 2017 he had the third-highest overall swing rate among 144 qualifying MLBers, at 58.2%. This year he's barely above MLB average at 46.3%. That's a huge shift, if he keeps it up.
 

sean1562

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So pitchers are probably still trying to get him to chase, getting behind and then throwing stuff solidly in the zone that he is crushing?
 

Sampo Gida

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Gregorius hit number 10 tonight which was the game winner. My hat is off to him. Regression is coming, but he’s on fire right now.
That was his first road HR this year. 381 ft. He doesnt hit them far but he hits them to the short part of parks. Amazing that guys continue to throw him inside-middle when he is hot
 

Sale4CY

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That was his first road HR this year. 381 ft. He doesnt hit them far but he hits them to the short part of parks. Amazing that guys continue to throw him inside-middle when he is hot
I suspect pitchers aren’t trying to throw him there but are just making mistakes. This tends to happen when you have a lineup with no holes or weak links.
 

foulkehampshire

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Exit velocity and avg HR distance is important however I wonder if people are overrating the regression angle a tad bit. His extreme pull profile and home park help really play to his favor.
 

jon abbey

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As of this second:

Didi-1.179 OPS
Xander-1.178 OPS

Good luck to people selecting All-Star shortstops this year, not just these two and Correa and Lindor, but Machado now also.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Don't forget Andrelton Simmons. And Segura and Semien have had a nice April too. Eight of the top 30 players in the AL by fWAR are shortstops.
Maybe the AL can start 7 shortstops in the field for the All Star game. Just spread them around the field.
 

grimshaw

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Don't forget Andrelton Simmons. And Segura and Semien have had a nice April too. Eight of the top 30 players in the AL by fWAR are shortstops.
I went back 30 years. I don't think there is much need to go back further. The average OPS+ range for SS was roughly between 85 and 95. I would guess the position has never cracked 100.

2017 MLB average OPS+
1b - 121
SS - 96

2018 MLB average OPS+
1b - 109
SS - 108

I used 1b since it is traditionally the highest, though this year 3b is at 115.

It's not like this is a SSS either. This is 3500+ plate appearances. Bogaerts has 54 of them.
 
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