2018 Draft Buildup

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,007
Mansfield MA
Don’t be shocked if they use a first round pick on him. It’s the same story every year. Beginning in Feb, the QBs get picked to death. Come draft day, they are over drafted. Would not be surprised if 5 go if the first half of round 1.
Eh, I think we are in silly season now. This time last year Davis Webb was a first-round pick. A couple years ago it was Tom Savage rising up boards. You can argue QBs are overdrafted (and I do think 5 will go in the top 15-20 picks), but I'm struggling to think of real first-round surprises in recent memory.
 

Spelunker

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
11,820
SI does an oral history of mock drafting. Belichick proves (yet again) he's the Zelig of NFL history

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/20/mock-draft-oral-history-mel-kiper-joel-buchsbaum-bill-belichick-todd-mcshay
Did MMQB reprint/repackage this story? I'm pretty sure it was linked here last (or previous) years.

Edit: I was thinking of this story from last year.

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/todays-nfl-draft-hysteria-can-thank-mel-kiper-jr-joel-buchsbaum-181351478.html
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Eh, I think we are in silly season now. This time last year Davis Webb was a first-round pick. A couple years ago it was Tom Savage rising up boards. You can argue QBs are overdrafted (and I do think 5 will go in the top 15-20 picks), but I'm struggling to think of real first-round surprises in recent memory.
Lynch, Weeden, Tannehill? Maybe not surprises, but maybe that’s the point.

That’s said, if the Pats are convinced Kyle is the guy, I have no problem wherever they take him.
 

Marbleheader

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2004
11,726
Cleveland is doing a great job of making everyone think they have no idea what they are doing. It's a craft they have perfected over the years.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Do we really think the Giants aren’t going to take a QB at #2? Is there some objective reason to believe that? I mean, ESPN talking-head chatter is cheap, but if it turned out the Giants weren’t known to have met with any of Darnold/Allen/Rosen, that would be telling.

Failing to address their need there when they have the 2nd pick in a QB-rich draft seems like it would be stupid, and while the Giants haven’t necessarily been the best-run franchise in the league over the past decade, they’ve at least been comfortably in the fat part of the curve. I wonder if they’re playing mind games with the Browns, who might otherwise expect Saquon Barkley to be there at #4.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,263
deep inside Guido territory
Do we really think the Giants aren’t going to take a QB at #2? Is there some objective reason to believe that? I mean, ESPN talking-head chatter is cheap, but if it turned out the Giants weren’t known to have met with any of Darnold/Allen/Rosen, that would be telling.

Failing to address their need there when they have the 2nd pick in a QB-rich draft seems like it would be stupid, and while the Giants haven’t necessarily been the best-run franchise in the league over the past decade, they’ve at least been comfortably in the fat part of the curve. I wonder if they’re playing mind games with the Browns, who might otherwise expect Saquon Barkley to be there at #4.
Thursday night should be fascinating in a number of ways.
--What way will Cleveland screw it up?
--Will Giants ignore the obvious need and draft a RB at #2?
--Which QB will the Jets get and how long until they misuse him enough to make him have no value?
--How many future 1sts will the Bills and/or Dolphins give up to move up?
--What gems will fall right into the Patriots lap?
 

NortheasternPJ

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 16, 2004
19,236
If you're the Giants and you're not taking a QB, you have to trade out of that spot and let someone jump in front of the Jets, don't you?
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,038
If you're the Giants and you're not taking a QB, you have to trade out of that spot and let someone jump in front of the Jets, don't you?
Quite possible the Giants may not even know what they’re going to do, particularly if they value one QB a lot more than the others. If Cleveland goes Darnold and the Giants really wanted him, possible that they’d then trade down. Taking Barkley #2 remains as really poor value.

Buffalo seems like the perfect trade partner here and they may even exceed the value chart to move ahead of a division rival. The Giants’ #2 is worth 2600 points. Buffalo can offer #12 (1200), #22 (780), #53 (370), and a 2019 2nd rounder to get close to the value.

With this trade, the Giants would have 12, 22, 34, 53, 66 so they could easily move back up if a guy like Rosen, Allen, or Mayfield slides. Or, they could stand pat and take Lamar Jackson at #12 and still have plenty of picks to fill other holes.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,877
Dallas
I think the Giants, if they don't go QB, will go for Chubb. They just traded JPP to TB. Gettleman has not traded down in the 1st round before but home prices hadn't fallen since 1987-2007 so this could be the black swan.

As for QB and the Pats... man I love Lamar Jackson. He's my favorite prospect in this draft. He also is my QB #3. With the current roster though I think it is more likely they do not use an inordinate amount of draft capital on a QB or trading up for a guy. Who knows. I think it is more likely though that they get a Mason Rudolph, Kyle Lauletta, Mike White, Logan Woodside than a premiere guy and they won't take any of those guys in the 1st. We will know soon enough.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
89,916
Oregon
Cleveland is doing a great job of making everyone think they have no idea what they are doing. It's a craft they have perfected over the years.
ESPN talking point of the day ... will the Browns take 2 quarterbacks?

Of course they could; taking Griffin and Cousins actually worked out well for Washington, why would it be surprising to see them go QB at 1/1 and also in the second round?
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
89,916
Oregon

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,877
Dallas
espn: NFL teams will announce their Day 3 draft picks in unique ways Saturday, highlighted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' plans to employ a parrot to help deliver the name of their fourth-round selection. The parrot, named Sarah Huckabee Sanders, will announce the selection from the pirate ship at Raymond James Stadium.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/story/_/id/23295028/parrot-deliver-name-tampa-bay-buccaneers-4th-round-pick
Not to go V&N here but a parrot named Sarah Huckabee Sanders has made my day. Brilliant.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,199

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
It’s interesting that Baker Mayfield’s stock seems to be rising among reporters who tend to be plugged-in, whereas the hottakez crowd is abuzz with Mayfield’s uncouth admission that he didn’t prepare much for his interview with the Chargers.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,598
It’s interesting that Baker Mayfield’s stock seems to be rising among reporters who tend to be plugged-in, whereas the hottakez crowd is abuzz with Mayfield’s uncouth admission that he didn’t prepare much for his interview with the Chargers.

Lombardi also stated that his stock is rising but Lombardi is not in love with him. Alternatively, Lombardi has Jackson as his top QB.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
What would it take for the Pats to move up to #10 in a swap with the Raiders? It would be interesting if one of the top four QB's slipped to that spot and the Pats made a move to get in front of Buffalo.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
89,916
Oregon
What would it take for the Pats to move up to #10 in a swap with the Raiders? It would be interesting if one of the top four QB's slipped to that spot and the Pats made a move to get in front of Buffalo.
You're assuming Buffalo doesn't move up higher
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,007
Mansfield MA
I am mystified that the Giants, who are in a terrific position to select a top QB for the future and put him in a good situation, seem hell-bent on not doing so, while the Bills, who will have to trade considerable resources to not have their pick of the QBs, just to drop one into maybe the worst supporting cast in the NFL, seem hell-bent on getting a QB.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
I am mystified that the Giants, who are in a terrific position to select a top QB for the future and put him in a good situation, seem hell-bent on not doing so, while the Bills, who will have to trade considerable resources to not have their pick of the QBs, just to drop one into maybe the worst supporting cast in the NFL, seem hell-bent on getting a QB.
They seem convinced that they can still get back into contention with Eli. It seems like there was a split of opinion on that last year in the organization, but Team Eli won when they made changes at the end of the season.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
4,946
A good freak or a bad freak?
Bad. I think they really need 1st round talent in the front 7. I like Miller’s potential, but he’s an enormous reach at 23 and didn’t perform well last year - really raw. Not super convinced by Rudolph.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
I am mystified that the Giants, who are in a terrific position to select a top QB for the future and put him in a good situation, seem hell-bent on not doing so, while the Bills, who will have to trade considerable resources to not have their pick of the QBs, just to drop one into maybe the worst supporting cast in the NFL, seem hell-bent on getting a QB.
We’ll know on the Giants in 48 hours.

Had a gut feel they were zeroed in on Barkley before the rumors. I am buying what’s being sold, and maybe I am foolish.

If this is to force Cleveland into Barkley at 1, kudos to them. They’ll have their pick of the QBs.
 

DanoooME

above replacement level
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
19,798
Henderson, NV
I am mystified that the Giants, who are in a terrific position to select a top QB for the future and put him in a good situation, seem hell-bent on not doing so, while the Bills, who will have to trade considerable resources to not have their pick of the QBs, just to drop one into maybe the worst supporting cast in the NFL, seem hell-bent on getting a QB.
Or maybe that's what they want everyone to think.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
36,920
Hingham, MA
Bill Barnwell has been up and down over the last few years, but I think he makes a great point today: one of the major appeals of drafting a difference making rookie is that they are cheap compared to veteran stars, especially QBs. For instance Wentz is going to cost Philly something like $75M less than if he was on the open market over his first five years in the league. However, for running backs, this simply isn't true. If Barkley is picked at 2, he will be guaranteed as much money as any other RB in the NFL. Of course, his first 4-5 years should be his best years, but even so he won't really be a "bargain". So does it really make sense to draft him if you are the Giants? The Browns at 4 make some sense assuming they draft a QB at 1, but even then I think I'd rather have the value of a Chubb than a RB.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Running backs and guards ... but there are exceptions to every rule, right? Moneyball has its limitations.

Quenton Nelson is getting drafted high. Anyone who wants to poke fun at the drafting team, have at it. Serious people have said he’s about the best O-lineman they personally have seen. If I have a chance to draft a John Hannah 2.0, I am drafting John Hannah 2.0.

Ditto Adrian Peterson. So the question with Barkley may be, is he an AP, can he change an offense by himself? Reasonable people may differ. I don’t think it’s reasonable to laugh at the notion that he is the best player in this draft.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,236
I personally think Eli is good enough to lead the Giants to another Super Bowl appearance, if the rest of the team is sufficiently good around him. In other words, I don't think he's washed up or terrible. Having an all-world talent like Barkley would go a long ways to helping the Giants' offense. I think it makes a lot of sense for them to snag Barkley if Cleveland doesn't take him #1.
 

pappymojo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2010
6,665
I think the question should be - where does the salary range for a player (based on both position and projected talent level) match up with the projected contracts for draft picks? To break the position down based on talent level, you could establish the salary for positions based on four ranges. Some positions such as WR may have more levels due to the number of starters on a typical offense.

So you would end up projecting the salary for the following tiers of players:

QB-A (Top Ten Level Talent)
QB-B (Starter Level Talent (11-32))
QB-C (Back-Up Level Talent)
QB-D (Developmental Level Talent)
WR1-A (Top Ten Level Talent)
WR1-B
WR1-C
WR1-D
WR2-A (there may be some overlap between WR1-B and WR2-A)
etc.

This is a little tricky based on how teams build contracts with guaranteed money and bonuses to spread the cap hit around but I think that is probably doable as a way to line up, for example, a player that you project as a starter level second defensive tackle (DT2-B) with an appropriate draft slot as a way to determine that this player should be drafted in a range between 90 & 110* and anything after that represents a valuable contract.

* that slot is totally pulled out of the air.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Running backs and guards ... but there are exceptions to every rule, right? Moneyball has its limitations.

Quenton Nelson is getting drafted high. Anyone who wants to poke fun at the drafting team, have at it. Serious people have said he’s about the best O-lineman they personally have seen. If I have a chance to draft a John Hannah 2.0, I am drafting John Hannah 2.0.

Ditto Adrian Peterson. So the question with Barkley may be, is he an AP, can he change an offense by himself? Reasonable people may differ. I don’t think it’s reasonable to laugh at the notion that he is the best player in this draft.
I had an argument with some guys I play hoops with a couple weeks ago about Barkley. My point is that even if he is as good as AP in his prime, what does that get you? What good did AP do the Vikings? Or Barry Sanders for the Lions? Or Walter Payton to the Bears (until they put together one of the 2-3 greatest single-season defenses of all time)?

But from a marketing POV, Barkley can make sense, even to a team like the Giants who have no problem selling tickets or getting eyeballs. But for a franchise like the Browns a guy like Barkley can generate excitement. OTOH, even if Nelson is John Hannah 2.0, I really don't know what that gets you, either on the field or in the marketing department. Getting a stud LT at least has concrete on-field value, a stud OG? Valuable, yes, but top-5 pick valuable???
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,877
Dallas
I personally think Eli is good enough to lead the Giants to another Super Bowl appearance, if the rest of the team is sufficiently good around him. In other words, I don't think he's washed up or terrible. Having an all-world talent like Barkley would go a long ways to helping the Giants' offense. I think it makes a lot of sense for them to snag Barkley if Cleveland doesn't take him #1.
I’m not going to argue that Barkley is not a top 3/5/10 player. He is, I think. But taking a RB, even if they are the perfect RB, at 2 is too rich for me. I think that’s a poor use of draft capital. I’d rather take a QB to replace Manning, trade back, or take Chubb.