That's the crazy thing about baseball. Mookie's OBP is an insane .486, but that means the pitcher is winning more than he's losing.
The 2018 Lineup
- Thread starter TonyPenaNeverJuiced
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This infuriates me.
The point of patience is to get a ball you can hammer. This article rather strongly argues that someone in the organization told players not to swing at pitches they could hit hard and that's some sort of malpractice.
I mean, that's cool and all but every player you listed except Martinez was there last year.
I don't know if it's that bad. Growing up and playing ball there were various times we, as players, were told to take til there was a strike or never swing 2-0 and never EVER swing 3-0, etc. I think the article is saying that the Sox used similar types of strategies at the major league level.
It worked, the Sox scored runs and won a lot. But the league caught up (eventually), as the article states--now bullpens seem overflowing with power arms that you can't really afford to take many pitches against.
I think the article is hinting though that there was a general team-wide reticence to swing at pitches in the zone, especially early in the count. How often have we complained about someone swinging at the first pitch and "letting the pitcher off the hook?" It doesn't even have to be a major change in instruction---it's not like anyone thinks the instruction was "don't swing at the first two pitches unless they are absolute cookies" but their in-zone swing percentage the last 10 years does suggest that there was an emphasis on being especially selective. And while patience is key, the problem with waiting for the "mistake" pitch every time is that you might hold off on the first pitch fastball that catches a little too much of the plate and turns out to be your best pitch to hit at that at-bat. So the underlying tenet of "the point of patience is to get a ball you can hammer" is just as true as it was before, but maybe the organizational definition of "a ball you can hammer" may have expanded a bit. The perfect being the enemy of the good.
I think at some point th team lost their way, and the ancillary benefit of patience - driving up pitch counts - started to become and end in and of itself. And they may also started thinking that patience would lead to deeper counts which would end up in their favor, which would result in better pitches to hit. But then other teams started taking advantage of their patience, and started throwing more strikes earlier in counts , putting Sox batters in the hole more often and resulting in fewer good pitches to hit in these deeper counts. And for whatever reason, the Sox did not adjust to this last year - and I would put a lot of blame (not all, but a lot) for this on the coaching staff.
Teddy Ballgame was right (of course) - the whole point is to get a good pitch to hit. If they don't throw you one, fine, you take your walk - don't make an out by swinging at pitcher's pitches (at least until you have two strikes). But if they throw you a good pitch to hit, be prepared to jump on it, even if (or maybe especially if) it's early in the count.
The writers, some of them anyway, would often be all over Ted for taking a pitch two inches off the plate with men on base for ball four, instead of hammering it to right field and driving in some runs. He had the best vision, 20-13 or thereabouts, the umps knew it and they’d go his way if it was real close. I don’t think Devers, even though I love him as a hitter, is ever going to be like Ted. I expect him to hit some eye level balls out of the park this year. Maybe we got our Sandoval after all. Feel dirty saying that.
I first started thinking deeply about baseball statistics when Money Ball came out and really when Theo joined the Sox right around then. Then OBP was a clear market inefficiency and "take and rake" was the expression. I don't know if this philosophy has changed much, but merely evolved as the pitching and defensive environments have changed. I would call this new approach an upgrade on take and rake but the philosophy of don't swing at balls, is enhanced with swing more at strikes. I think where this is really important is in 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 counts and not necessarily going up there first pitch swinging.
Therefore, it wasn't malpractice. It wasn't ideal or optimal potentially, but the article points out the original approach can be very successful and was.
Hey guys, if the Red Sox win their next 85 games, they can lose literally every last one of their final 60 games and still have 100 wins.
It's ridiculous, but I'd be a bit disappointed in 12-5.
I'd like to finish the sweep in Anaheim, win both Oakland and Toronto series and utterly destroy the last place teams so we can go 35-5.
It sort of felt like the offensive philosophy of the Red Sox (or the coaching staff's ability to teach players to put it into practice) had gotten stale by the end of Farrell's tenure. If I get infuriated about anything, it is about how the analytical powerhouse that Theo built had been allowed to atrophy so much by the time Ben Cherington was dismissed. Credit to old dog Dave Dombrowski who's been willing to learn a few new analytical tricks and rebuild the team's capabilities in this area.
Agree, although "stale" and "atrophy" is probably putting it mildly.
Cora (and his staff) apparently has the relevant data + understands/knows how to use it + is able to communicate it to the players = system upgrade
Every Nomar ground out on the first pitch caused this server to crash back in the day ....
When Bogaerts comes back to the lineup, should Hanley be the permanent #2 hitter? I know there's 4 right hand hitters in a row at the top of the lineup, but I feel this would be a really good lineup.
"A" lineup
Betts RF
Ramirez 1B
Martinez DH
Bogaerts SS
Benintendi LF
Devers 3B
Pedroia 2B
Bradley CF
Vazquez C
"A" lineup
Betts RF
Ramirez 1B
Martinez DH
Bogaerts SS
Benintendi LF
Devers 3B
Pedroia 2B
Bradley CF
Vazquez C
Why do you want to mess with success? Especially when Benintendi seems to be coming out of his funk (he's up to a 126 wRC+ now)?
Apparently hitting the ball up instead of into the ground
I really don't understand letting analytics atrophy when it seems so relatively inexpensive.
Benintendi was barely even in a funk.
He started the season with two 0/4s. I guess that's a funk.
The next 7 games he went 5/23, but with 9 walks. So, a .438 OBP — pretty nice production from the top of the order. The 7 games since, the patience he'd been showing led to more strikes (I checked on Brooksbaseball, and it's true...), and he's been crushing them: .379/.424/.724.
So yeah, I don't think it was a funk so much as it was not getting much to hit.
I dunno, you could argue that extra base hits should count for a little bit more credit than singles for example. An OBP of 400 with nothing but home runs compared to OBP of all singles are not alike. I'm giving Mookie the WIN (for now) even if he's slacking a little bit below .500
maybe we can call .500 the Mookie line and try to motivate him a bit more
Of course, that's why we have stats like wOBA and OPS. But when you look at Mookie's performance as a series of discrete battles between him and a pitcher, the pitchers have actually won more of those battles (barely) than Mookie has. And the obvious incongruity of that fact with Mookie's utter dominance so far kind of sums up how hard hitting is. You can be an absolute beast without actually succeeding as much as 50% of the time.
Where do sacrifice flies fit in? Who wins that one?
Serious question--I mean, that's why the new stats exist, right?
ha, I wasn't being serious, I understood the point 
Its pretty neat that in a full season of say 500 AB, the difference between a 200 and 400 hitter relative to a 300 one is 50 hits. Which equates to one extra hit out of every 10 AB, or scaled to a season about every 3 games, or 2 hits a week. Theres always a way to frame it to make it sound somehow more or less significant. Anyway, Mookie probably can't keep this up all season, and X might not quite be able to sustain his early pace, but I think theres a lot more to come from JDM for one, so I think a combination of regression up from last years weirdly under par performance, and some adjustments in approach and improvement due to experience seems to indicate this team can hit pretty good
Its pretty neat that in a full season of say 500 AB, the difference between a 200 and 400 hitter relative to a 300 one is 50 hits. Which equates to one extra hit out of every 10 AB, or scaled to a season about every 3 games, or 2 hits a week. Theres always a way to frame it to make it sound somehow more or less significant. Anyway, Mookie probably can't keep this up all season, and X might not quite be able to sustain his early pace, but I think theres a lot more to come from JDM for one, so I think a combination of regression up from last years weirdly under par performance, and some adjustments in approach and improvement due to experience seems to indicate this team can hit pretty good
And it probably comes with experience of understanding your strengths better with each passing year.
Mookie and Xander were extremely frustrating in this regard last year. So may at bats started with fastballs right down the middle followed by chasing sliders to put themselves in a hole. Maybe it took a whole spring of practicing the new approach for it to work.
Even Ted Williams, the greatest hitter who ever lived, only managed a .482 OBP for his career. What a loser.
As of now, the Sox are OPSing .858 as a team, which is actually slightly better than the 2003 team that managed an .851 for the season.
There's a major difference in environment, though; the 2003 offense was insane, but offense in general was insane. That put them at an 118 OPS+, compared to a 131 for this team so far.
There's a major difference in environment, though; the 2003 offense was insane, but offense in general was insane. That put them at an 118 OPS+, compared to a 131 for this team so far.
We're in the "evaluation" phase still but this team would appear to need a Chris Young version 2016.
Bradley and Beni combined are 8 for 59 vs lefties. JBJ has a better track record (career wRC+82) but isn't hitting anything.
There are no right handed hitting outfielders on the 40 man in the minors nor any obvious candidates to be added based on current performance.
Last night was a preview of their best righty stacking lineup with Swihart as the DH and JDM in for Beni. Not exactly optimal.
Bradley and Beni combined are 8 for 59 vs lefties. JBJ has a better track record (career wRC+82) but isn't hitting anything.
There are no right handed hitting outfielders on the 40 man in the minors nor any obvious candidates to be added based on current performance.
Last night was a preview of their best righty stacking lineup with Swihart as the DH and JDM in for Beni. Not exactly optimal.
It will improve a bit when Pedey is back and Nunez becomes an OF/DH platoon option.
What about Brock Holt? Before he wore down in the 2nd half of both seasons in 2014 and 2015 due to being in quite often, how about his splits? I'm hoping they can find something other than waste dollars on a righty bat. Very disappointed so far with Beni but ofc it's way early. I think as season progresses one more solid, high quality reliever would be needed. And ofc Davis Price needs to be fixed in some manner.
JBJ actually hit lefties better in 2015 and 2017. His troubles this year are puzzling, but it is a 34 PA sample.
This team already has a Chris Young in the name of Rusney Castillo, unfortunately they can't actually use him because his contract is awful. He would actually be a perfect fit roster wise though. He has enormous splits.
The ideal lefty-mashing roster fit that I can see is Mark Canha. He’s a swing change guy who’s been extremely productive so far this year, mostly against lefties. Canha can play first and (at least) the corner outfield and has three years of control after 2018. He’d give us some flexibility next year if we decide to roll with Moreland as the full-time first baseman.
I can’t imagine he’d cost more than Brian Johnson. The A’s have a lot of young outfielders they need to make room for, and Canha hits arb next year.
I can’t imagine he’d cost more than Brian Johnson. The A’s have a lot of young outfielders they need to make room for, and Canha hits arb next year.
Ya I noticed that too about Bradley, but he's obviously not ideal anyhow.
Barfield has been abysmal in AAA or he would be the only other possibility close to helping. Even then he'd need to be added to the 40 man.
Not that a 25-9 team needs much of anything but it is a noticeable weakness in the system.
So, we have something like 3 disturbing lineup issues:
1. Bradley looks completely lost at the plate
2. Vazquez (and to some extent Leon - sss) looks like a net negative, both offensively (obvious) and defensively (not so obvious...but what has he done that stands out? Pitch calling? Framing? Blocking? Throws?)
3. Devers is in danger of giving up more on defense than he's going to provide on offense.
Sandoval 2015: .02 HR/PA - .14 K's / PA - .245 - .12 Errors/game
Devers 2018 (sss): .04 HR/PA - .27 K's / PA - .252 - .26 Errors/Game
In the first 34 games of 2018, Devers is hitting HR's at twice the pace of 2015 Sandoval but striking out at twice the rate and making 2x as many errors. If Devers HR rate goes down, the Red Sox have a real problem at 3B.
Now, most experts keep talking about how good the kid is at the plate. They must be seeing something...and of course he's just a kid with an upside potentially way higher than Pablo's. I'm just speaking to a sense of frustration with the way he looks so far, particularly when bundled with Bradley and Vazquez.
1. Bradley looks completely lost at the plate
2. Vazquez (and to some extent Leon - sss) looks like a net negative, both offensively (obvious) and defensively (not so obvious...but what has he done that stands out? Pitch calling? Framing? Blocking? Throws?)
3. Devers is in danger of giving up more on defense than he's going to provide on offense.
Sandoval 2015: .02 HR/PA - .14 K's / PA - .245 - .12 Errors/game
Devers 2018 (sss): .04 HR/PA - .27 K's / PA - .252 - .26 Errors/Game
In the first 34 games of 2018, Devers is hitting HR's at twice the pace of 2015 Sandoval but striking out at twice the rate and making 2x as many errors. If Devers HR rate goes down, the Red Sox have a real problem at 3B.
Now, most experts keep talking about how good the kid is at the plate. They must be seeing something...and of course he's just a kid with an upside potentially way higher than Pablo's. I'm just speaking to a sense of frustration with the way he looks so far, particularly when bundled with Bradley and Vazquez.
If there's an actual list of this team's issues, Devers isn't on it. He's freaking 21. Give him time.
If there's a ridiculous way to try and paint Devers as an issue, comparing him to Sandoval tops THAT list.
He's been a net negative, so he has been one of the team's issues. It's just an issue they aren't going to bother addressing because the answer is giving him time.
At what point are we going to do something about having three pitchers at the bottom of our lineup?
Pedroia solves one issue.
Will we be stuck with a pitcher as a catcher the whole season?
For all the moaning our BP gets. We have a bipolar offense. We either score a bunch of runs or very few runs.
AB has struggled this season
3B/2B are far from consistent and Catcher is like having a literal pitcher at the plate.
Pedroia solves one issue.
Will we be stuck with a pitcher as a catcher the whole season?
For all the moaning our BP gets. We have a bipolar offense. We either score a bunch of runs or very few runs.
AB has struggled this season
3B/2B are far from consistent and Catcher is like having a literal pitcher at the plate.
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Betts-JDM hitting 1-2 every game should be an automatic no-brainer decision imo. the rest of the slots can change every day based on handedness and hotness, but the top 2 spots should be locked in. they are by far and away our 2 best and most consistent hitters. and the only hitters we can depend on to be significantly above average in the long run.
Yeah, I don’t know what Cora is waiting for. The way he set the lineup out of Spring Training was fucking dumb, but they went on an absolute tear so he got a pass I guess.
At this point though, why on earth would you want Benny and Hanley getting more at-bats every day than J.D. Martinez? It’s completely nonsensical. The 2/3 slots need to be Bogey/JDM or vice versa.
Alex is waiting for Hanley to go on a tear and stay on it. He visited Hanley preseason, Hanley said he was psyched and ready to go, TB12 method, 30-30, all that. Cora actually did mention Hanley’s 30-30 prediction the other day on NESN.
Early results look like Cora is going to give people a ton of rope before he makes changes. I mean, if it makes sense having the best hitter, taken over the whole season, hitting first, why not have the guy who is second best overall hit at least third? Get him up in the first inning, you know.
Agree that JDM should move up in the lineup - why not flip him and Hanley? And I'd give Beni maybe a week or so more in the 2 slot, and if he doesn't get going maybe flip him and X. Pedey may eventually return to the 2 hole, but I wouldn't put him there to start unless he absolutely crushes it on rehab.
Last calendar year:
Martinez 166wrc+
Betts 125
Moreland 106
Pedroia 102
Devers 102
Bogaerts 98
Hanley 96
Benintendi 94
Vazquez 69
Nunez 112
Bradley 85
Holt 76
Leon 58
Last 2 calendar years:
Martinez 165wrc+
Betts 135
Pedroia 113
Hanley 112
Bogaerts 107
Benintendi 104
Devers 102
Bradley 96
Leon 89
Moreland 99
Nunes 97
Holt 77
Vazquez 71
Fangraphs Depth Charts Rest of Season Projection
Martinez 140
Betts 136
Bogaerts 108
Benintendi 108
Hanley 108
Devers 105
Moreland 104
Pedroia 100
Vazquez 70
Bradley 94
Nunez 90
Holt 88
Leon 68
Martinez 166wrc+
Betts 125
Moreland 106
Pedroia 102
Devers 102
Bogaerts 98
Hanley 96
Benintendi 94
Vazquez 69
Nunez 112
Bradley 85
Holt 76
Leon 58
Last 2 calendar years:
Martinez 165wrc+
Betts 135
Pedroia 113
Hanley 112
Bogaerts 107
Benintendi 104
Devers 102
Bradley 96
Leon 89
Moreland 99
Nunes 97
Holt 77
Vazquez 71
Fangraphs Depth Charts Rest of Season Projection
Martinez 140
Betts 136
Bogaerts 108
Benintendi 108
Hanley 108
Devers 105
Moreland 104
Pedroia 100
Vazquez 70
Bradley 94
Nunez 90
Holt 88
Leon 68
Isn’t part of the problem that Beni is the only semi-decent LHH in the lineup? Take Beni out and then you have three or four RHH in a row.
Maybe you could move JDM up and put Mitch or Devers in the cleanup spot but that seems like you are flirting with underperformance in a key spot that the current lineup doesn’t really have.
Maybe you could move JDM up and put Mitch or Devers in the cleanup spot but that seems like you are flirting with underperformance in a key spot that the current lineup doesn’t really have.
Is there a reason Hanley can’t go on this tear while batting 6th or 7th in the lineup?
The dhappy hot-hand (patent-pending) lineup algorithm now says:
Betts-Moreland-JDM-Devers-X-Benny-Hanley-Nunez-catcher
The “Son of Tito” thing has it’s plusses and minuses.