Come to think of it, Ainge has shown a really good ability to recognize guard talent in the draft and in general. Maybe from being one himself.
Terry Coming Up Rozes
- Thread starter lovegtm
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With teams going smaller, Rozier's ability to rebound, from the PG position, is extremely attractive. I'd rather not let Terry get to free agency and get it done this offseason. His ascent has been steep the last 12 months, if this continues he'll get real expensive on the open market.
I hope it's not an either/or situation with him and Marcus but if some team makes a silly offer for Smart at least we're not held hostage.
I hope it's not an either/or situation with him and Marcus but if some team makes a silly offer for Smart at least we're not held hostage.
One must wonder if that picture frame will end up costing Smart millions now, especially given the difficulties in assessing his value.
That along with a confluence other events over the last few weeks has cost Marcus money. His attitude/effort has never been under question, but some of his decision making on/off the court has been sub-optimal. Trust that Brad/Danny/ownership will put all this into the calculus when handing out long/expensive contracts.
I think how Avery Bradley performs through the rest of the season will actually have a decent impact on Smart's value. We have some evidence that role players in Brad's system aren't worth as much in other organizations. Bradley is probably the closest comp to Marcus, with Marcus having an edge defensively and Bradley on O, and he didn't look like the same guy in Detroit. Add in Crowder, Evan Turner, and maybe IT (though not enough sample, yet) and I could see why teams might be hesitant to pick up yet another addition to that list at big money. If AB comes out and "lights the world" on fire with consistent, solid play after being traded, it may build some confidence that Marcus' contributions, beyond the stat-sheet, could translate elsewhere.
Now with Rozier, none of the above matters if he can contribute 75% of his performance last couple games, per-36, while being the 6th man down the stretch. He's going to get PAID.
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I also want to add that, even considering a few bone-headed turnovers each night, I've been very pleasantly surprised with his ability to create for his teammates. His BBIQ has been pretty solid, consistently driving to the paint and either finding a teammate behind the arc (which seem to always result in a high percentage shot), or take his pull up jumper within 6' of the bucket. His energy translates to a nice blend of aggressiveness and vision, instead of being the volume chucker he tends to become in long doses as a bench player.
It wouldn't surprise me if he was simply a more impactful player as a starter. The long leash and confidence in your time on the court, when you have hardly and depth behind you, might lead to less pressure, since he knows a few minutes of bad play might not be detrimental to his playing time.
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Good point, although that probably puts a "bench combo guard" ceiling on him.
I do think he can probably fake being a point guard to some extent on the right team. Think of Dee Brown - looked fine as a PG when he got to be on the floor with Bird, but after that, not so much. I think Rozier is kind of a similar case.
Yes. I'm still a bit skeptical on Rozier, in the sense that he is a very streaky player. But if teams believe he will be consistently at the level he has been at over the past 2 games, then his days in Boston are numbered because he'll want to go somewhere and start. Which makes looking to keep the more affordable Smart as a key bench guy look better in comparison.
Are we really going to use Curry shooting over guards as a baseline for how well a player defends? I mean he dropped 49 with Kyrie on him most of the night too.
Rozier looks like he's going to have a Jarrett Jack-type career as a starter on a non-playoff team and/or 3rd guard on a contender playing 20+ mpg. He hasn't stopped improving since the day he's entered the league which bodes well. Having his rookie salary on our second unit next year is a no-brainer unless he's part of a blockbuster deal as his trade value on his own would only bring back similar talent.....for what, to pay Smart 3x more? That never made sense to me.
Smart will cost much more than Rozier next season, not more affordable. Ainge has a history of maintaining flexibility with his second unit guys while committing long-term to his core group of 3-4. I never viewed Smart as a part of that core....he's a second unit role player/20 mpg guy, these guys drop off trees without having to commit long term.
But two years out Smart might be more affordable, I think that is the point being made above. Of course the primary reason for that would be that he's not as good.
After the last month, is there anyone left who would take Marcus Smart over Terry Rozier going forward?
Well the Celtics did struggle when Smart was out and now they've righted the ship. Not necessarily causal of course, but it has to make Smart's agent happy.
Smart is also at career high FG% and 3pt% despite his terrible start this year. Granted those numbers are .368/.301 but it's something. His last 32 games, Smart is at .431/.336/.694.
Assuming Kyrie is staying and Smart doesn't break the bank, I'd keep Smart and look to trade Rozier for a different asset.
This is where I come down. Rozier seems more likely to have teams think he can start and get paid like it. A lot depends on Smart's market this off-season, but I'm hoping we can sign Smart cheap and trade Rozier for either a mid-first or a younger, cheaper for longer, roleplayer.
If the 76ers offered the 18-19th pick would you do it? I'm not sure I would. With Hayward back and continued improvement/maturity from Brown/Tatum/Rozier this team will contend next season. We have plenty of picks in the pipeline. I'm not dealing Terry unless it is an immediate talent upgrade (IE he's part of a larger package for AD, Kawhi)
In the offseason no but Ainge will be faced with the same situation next winter with Rozier's approaching RFA as to whether to shop him for a low #1 and if a team will pay that price. The market was completely dry in moving these guys for low #1's as the new CBA has now placed enormous value in rookie contract players in a teams rotation on the cheap for multiple years. So the question won't be would Ainge move him for a low first next winter as he tried to do with Smart, it is whether there is any market for these type players with teams now valuing low #1's so greatly now.
He's prime bait I agree. Ainge will have to go really cheap on his second unit which he's always done but ever moreso if we go so top-heavy with Davis, Hayward, Horford, and Kyrie. In this scenario we'd lose both Smart and Rozier and have to completely redo our second unit.
Oops, I forgot Al in there. He needs to go for salary match. So it would be Hayward, Kyrie, Davis, Tatum, and whatever else they can muster.
Not necessarily unless Ainge wanted to remove Horford's large chunk from the books. There are two sign-n-trade options Ainge would appear to have this summer with the unique FA market available to Smart and Monroe where the Pelicans would be their greatest chance at a payday. Smart as part of a rebuild and Monroe in a large one-year guaranteed deal similar to ours with Amir while being a stopgap big until Boogie returns healthy.
Probably can't use Monroe this way unless his market craters. Celtics can only sign him for a salary up to 6M, and in a sign and trade contract has to be at least three years long.
Monroe probably unwilling to sign a 3 year deal starting at 6M, whether it's fully guaranteed or not.
Only the first year is required to be guaranteed in a sign-n-trade but you are correct in that the limitations to what we can offer would kill my idea.
I'm aware, but would have to be a three year deal. He wouldn't sign a three year deal fully guaranteed, or just the first year guaranteed. It's bad for him either way. Locking himself in for short money for three years or worse, giving a team the option on him for that short money in year 2 and 3.
Those contracts are for guys trying to get in the league at the end of a roster, or guys trying to hang on in the league at the end of the roster.
Was it ever published what Monroe signed for? I remember that he agreed to $5 million, but then didn't sign for a week amid speculation that they might give him more.
Does Monroe really have a market that will pay him much more than 6 mil? He'd might make 8-10 on a single year deal, he'd might prefer the guaranteed money.
The only reservations I had about Terry over Smart was Smart's ability to play PG. Since Smart went down in January, Rozier has responded in the following 22 games by averaging 15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists/1.3 TO in 29.4 minutes of play on .420/.437/.730 shooting.
Prior to the Smart injury, Rozier was averaging 2.0 assists in 23 minutes.
I am fully on the Rozier train now but he may have convinced other teams he can start in this league. This means he's probably going to cost too much for the Celtics to retain and that he has some trade value this off season.
I'd love to see him be the Celtics Jamal Crawford/Lou Williams/what we wanted IT to be for the next 10 years but I don't see it in the cards.
Prior to the Smart injury, Rozier was averaging 2.0 assists in 23 minutes.
I am fully on the Rozier train now but he may have convinced other teams he can start in this league. This means he's probably going to cost too much for the Celtics to retain and that he has some trade value this off season.
I'd love to see him be the Celtics Jamal Crawford/Lou Williams/what we wanted IT to be for the next 10 years but I don't see it in the cards.
I feel like he has moved himself, both in terms of the Celtics world and the rest of the NBA, from a 4th guard in a rotation on a playoff team to 3rd guard. His ability to shoot, rebound, and now distribute, plus his defensive tenacity makes him ideal as your first guard off the bench.
That said, a non-playoff team might see him (and thus pay him) as a starter. As they say, it only takes one.
That said, a non-playoff team might see him (and thus pay him) as a starter. As they say, it only takes one.
I think you guys are severely underrating Rozier. He was closing out playoff games and making big plays in these games. How many teams had a Smart as their 3rd guard? For the majority Rozier began this year with the skillset of a 3rd while he's shown that he could be starting for some teams. His career path reminds me of Reggie Jackson's before finally getting a starting gig.
Basically. I think he'll end up getting more than Smart and I'm not sure how deep the Celtics are willing to go into the luxury.
T-Rozay. Celtics Nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Now is the time for him to step up and go get paid...
So, if you're the Celtics do you 1) pay him and start him, 2) trade him to cash in on his value, or 3) play out the string and let him walk?
He can pull off the undersized 2-guard thing in a way that Bradley couldn't, but the Celtics are so deep at the wing with Brown, Hayward, Tatum already. On the other hand if they end up pulling off a Davis deal they may wind up thin at the wing.
Bingo. No shade on Rozier, who I would keep in a vacuum, but there is a reason that with everyone healthy Smart is the ‘closer’ and Rozier is on the pine.
Let's assume Gordon, Smart, Brown, Irving all at full strength. Brown / Smart spend some minimal time in the "front court" so that maybe Gordon / Irving 30 minutes and Brown/Smart 25 minutes (both sets seem a little light). The value in keeping Rozier is to keep that four "fresher" and to be better than Larkin (or other) in "emergency" situations. You probably add Kadeem Allen to the end of the bench as a "defensive specialist" in times where a Larkin might be overmatched. T-roze is a better option and would present incredible depth but it is likely for one year.
I'd probably be willing to trade that (incredible depth) luxury for the opportunity to draft top 15 next year or top 10 in future years. He is on a reasonable rookie contract with a qualifying offer (essentially RFA).
I'd probably be willing to trade that (incredible depth) luxury for the opportunity to draft top 15 next year or top 10 in future years. He is on a reasonable rookie contract with a qualifying offer (essentially RFA).
As much as I've been in the Rozier camp from early on we can't pay him long term with all the perimeter players ahead of him unless there is a role that justifies his salary.....which is consistent with my position on Smart as well who won't be a closer or getting the minutes to justify his next contract here once Hayward returns.
I don't know who the blockbuster trade options would be ahead from Davis but that is a non-starter until the Pelicans ownership dispute is settled following Tom Benson's death. There is a zero chance that he is traded while Demps is still calling the shots imo but the minute he is ultimately fired Ainge will be right there with the bullets to fire on a deal. For this reason, Rozier isn't likely to go anywhere next year especially if Smart signs elsewhere or demands to be traded like Jae when his minutes aren't there. Eventually either Rozier, Jaylen, etc will have to be included in a trade as you can't pay everyone and Rozier will certainly have suitors for a big payday.
http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2018/03/new_orleans_saints_pelicans_ow_1.html
Question: is it possible to sign both Rozier and Smart and then trade one of them next year? I’m not familiar enough with the cap situation to know if that’s an option even if the price isn’t sustainable long term.
Technically, once you are capped out (as the Celtics are), you can keep everybody on your current roster if you want and are okay blowing up your team salary.
They can extend Rozier this fall, as they attempted to do with Smart last fall. But the extension acts as a sort of de facto one year no trade clause thanks to the poison pill provision.
(In brief when you extend a rookie deal after the third season for outgoing purposes the player's salary is treated as the average salary for length of the remaining years (for example, a player about to make $4 million that signs a 4 year $66 million dollar extension will count as $14 million on the outgoing trade ledger), but they only count as their actual salary for inbound purposes.)