JDM is signed-5 years, 110 mil

Wingack · Feb 20, 2018

grimshaw said:
Curious if our Yankee fans here would rather have Stanton or JDM with their respective contracts - not trolling just wondering.

I like JD a lot and think you guys got a great deal on him. But I also think the Yankees got a really great deal on Stanton ($22 million AAV), and the Yankees get Stanton for more of his prime years than the Red Sox get Martinez for, that matters a lot to me. Stanton will also provide much more value in the field than Martinez will. The health piece is a little sketchy for both of them, but I still take the younger guy in Stanton.

I will say Martinez will make a bigger difference on Boston than Stanton will make on the Yankees in 2019. Boston needed him more than the Yankees needed Stanton.

Papelbon's Poutine · Feb 20, 2018

grimshaw said:
I'm not a game threading pessimist.I have always been enthused with the future of the team since Theo took over. I can't recall a season where I didn't think they had a shot. I thought both last place finishes were flukey because so many previously talented players had down years. I think this may be the most talented team they have ever had and fully intend to enjoy every game.

Overall though for the above reasons and with the Yankees improving while still having a very good farm system and still payroll space with bad contracts ending - it's a bit tough to see them atop the standings in a few years, I'll even toss in a "Bryce Harper won't automatically sign with the Yankees" peace offering, but really, I'm just trying to be realistic.

Let's revisit this in 2020 and enjoy the ride.

Not accusing you of gamethreading, it’s just a permeating sentiment around here lately. Twelve months ago, the Yankee fans here were talking long term and now they’re juggernauts? There’s a handful of guys that could have just have had their career years and come back down; just like ours guys did this season, yet still won 93 games. It’s not time to lament that some kind of window is closing. They need to figure out the financials, but the Sox don’t have a bunch of aging linchpins and they have salary space freeing up soon.

streeter88 · Feb 20, 2018

LesterFan said:
ZiPS projections for JDM (courtesy of Dan Szymborski‏)

Has him worth 52 million over the next 2 years, 74 over 3, and 104 over 5. Pretty much in line with the contract.

Wow - uncannily similar to the contract terms.

Very very excited by this deal. The Red Sox get the middle of the order bat that everyone has been screaming for since the Yankees signed Stanton, and amazingly, there is little daylight between the two (compelling evidence RedOct!). Also good that DD did not overpay and correctly read the market. Really starting to like his work too.

I understand TAJr's point about not being able to truly test whether last year was simply a regression in performance vs. hampered by lack of Papi, but from my perspective that is an intellectual exercise, and not something that truly needs to be tested. Pitching was great last year, defense good, baserunning agressive but borderline crazy at times, and the big missing piece was the ability to score runs in big chunks due to lack of HRs. Now we have that, plus a new coaching staff and manager, and I think we will still be able to see the young core of the team step up its performance following last year's "down" year - where the team still won 93 games.

Really excited about the prospects for this year. Bring on the games!

The Mort Report · Feb 20, 2018

maufman said:
I’m saying roll with what they’ve got.

JDM and Price are likely to be tying up north of $50 million in payroll when it comes time to make decisions on Sale, Betts, and Bogaerts. You might accept that if you had a terrific chance to win a title in the next couple of years, but I don’t think that’s the case — the MFY looked like a solid preseason favorite heading into the offseason, and they have only widened the gap (Stanton >>> JDM, obviously).

I’m afraid we’re going to be watching a terrible baseball team in the 2020s because DD decided to push his chips into the center of the table (or was told to do so by ownership), and I doubt we’re going to have a pennant to show for it.

Well doesn't the money have to be spent somewhere? No matter how bad we all want, the Red Sox will never maximize their money in some vacuum that doesn't exist. For all of the great contracts that exist from rookie deals, any successful team will have deals that overpay. Also Hanley and Pablo will be coming off the books. And put it another way, would you rather spend that 50 mill on JDM and Price or on Chatwood, Cain, and Santana? Because they signed for about the same amount in a down market, regardless of position.

Now I'm thinking it would be a fun exercise to try and see if 50 mil in deals signed in this market could be better served. Too many beers to do the research but I'm comfortable saying no(within what the team actually needs)

chawson · Feb 20, 2018

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Not accusing you of gamethreading, it’s just a permeating sentiment around here lately. Twelve months ago, the Yankee fans here were talking long term and now they’re juggernauts? There’s a handful of guys that could have just have had their career years and come back down; just like ours guys did this season, yet still won 93 games. It’s not time to lament that some kind of window is closing. They need to figure out the financials, but the Sox don’t have a bunch of aging linchpins and they have salary space freeing up soon.

Twelve months ago, the Yankees were a couple years into a program of stockpiling young talent, which is not something we’ve been doing whatsoever.

I don’t think anyone here is saying the Sox will be in “the doldrums” in 2020, but wouldn’t you agree there’ll be fundamental changes to the core given how many key players come off the books, plus the age curves of Price and Pedroia.

The JDM move works because there’s no realistic target for us in next year’s FA class, despite its pedigree. Barring something really radical—like trading Devers for Fullmer and signing Donaldson or something—this is the team the next two years.

grimshaw · Feb 20, 2018

The Mort Report said:
Well doesn't the money have to be spent somewhere? No matter how bad we all want, the Red Sox will never maximize their money in some vacuum that doesn't exist. For all of the great contracts that exist from rookie deals, any successful team will have deals that overpay. Also Hanley and Pablo will be coming off the books. And put it another way, would you rather spend that 50 mill on JDM and Price or on Chatwood, Cain, and Santana? Because they signed for about the same amount in a down market, regardless of position.

Now I'm thinking it would be a fun exercise to try and see if 50 mil in deals signed in this market could be better served. Too many beers to do the research but I'm comfortable saying no(within what the team actually needs)

He's saying he'd rather have just stood pat and used the money differently - as in internally. I get the logic - but disagree.

Another factor in GFIN is that management has an inkling of who may or may not want to stay. So far Betts hasn't wanted to talk long term yet - or at least on the Sox' terms. We already know Bogaerts is Boras'ed up so that may be a toughie. Who knows how they really feel about Bradley.

Maybe they know Pomeranz and Kimbrel will be too expensive or that they think the latter is a risky long term contract and finding his replacement may be difficult. As usual, we aren't privy to their reasoning, but what we do know is that this roster is awesome.

Papelbon's Poutine · Feb 20, 2018

chawson said:
Twelve months ago, the Yankees were a couple years into a program of stockpiling young talent, which is not something we’ve been doing whatsoever.

I don’t think anyone here is saying the Sox will be in “the doldrums” in 2020, but wouldn’t you agree there’ll be fundamental changes to the core given how many key players come off the books, plus the age curves of Price and Pedroia.

The JDM move works because there’s no realistic target for us in next year’s FA class, despite its pedigree. Barring something really radical—like trading Devers for Fullmer and signing Donaldson or something—this is the team the next two years.

This IS the team the next two years and it’s a perfectly fine team. There is no ‘window’ as currently constructed. There’s no expiration date, there is plenty of flexibility coming with Pablo, Hanley and likely Porcello falling off the books and there is always swings in farm systems. The Yankees twelve months ago were no different than the Sox 36 months ago. Do they have a two year window?

In a span of like half a year, people went from having no idea to knowing who Anderson Espinoza was, to slamming their fist they traded him. How’s he doing now? How many flakes out prospects does one need to see to realize that the people who see them daily have a better grasp than we do or even guys like Law or Sickels?

Why is it guaranteed that Severino won’t fall off (like Porcello did)? Gray is perpetually injured. As is Stanton. Judge was a freaking beast but it was one year and above his head. Didi had his career year. Tanaka has elbow issues. Sabathia has injury issues. Who the hell knows with Sanchez. Bird, Torreyes and Andujar are completely unproven. Gardner is getting older and Hicks likely also had a career year. They have a great bullpen.

All of these thing could have been related to the Sox - including the comments on farm system - not that long ago. Shit happens.

I’m not bowing down to the MFY. Or any other team to be honest. It’s far too fickle of a game to submit years out.

Sampo Gida · Feb 20, 2018

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Not accusing you of gamethreading, it’s just a permeating sentiment around here lately. Twelve months ago, the Yankee fans here were talking long term and now they’re juggernauts? There’s a handful of guys that could have just have had their career years and come back down; just like ours guys did this season, yet still won 93 games. It’s not time to lament that some kind of window is closing. They need to figure out the financials, but the Sox don’t have a bunch of aging linchpins and they have salary space freeing up soon.

Well, a lot has changed in 12 months and I thought Yankee fans and FO were too pessimistic about 2017 chances anyways

Severino and Judge have shown they are for real after a disappointing 2016. Perhaps they were career years but even with a drop off they should be very good.

Gary Sanchez showed 2016 was no fluke. Defensively he needs work, but the bat makes up for it

Picking up Stanton for at least 3 years if not 10 at an AAV what Hanley and JDM gets for not very much is silly stuff

Bird and Monthomery showed they could be pretty good if healthy

Picking up Kahnle, D-Rob and the emegence of Chad Green to go with Betances and Chapman is more silly stuff

And 2 really good almost MLB ready and highly touted IFers in Andujar and Torres to step in at minimum salary to join a pretty good SS in Didi.

This does not consider Prospects like Frazier and Sheffield in a fairly well stocked farm system even after everyone is up at MLB

As important as the talent is, the financial flexibility with so many homegrown pre-arb players is , well, silly stuff

They can pretty much fill any hole that develops at the TD due to injury or bust with that farm and their financial flexibility.

Not to sell the Red Sox short, some luck with health and positive regression we are in this for 2018. But they are in better shape in the medium term.

Perhaps some bust out prospects DOTF and positive regression/breakouts at MLB level changes that perception in 12 months. We shall see.

JDM at least makes things look a bit rosier if he can handle Boston after what must have been a brutal offseason for him mentally and physically (had to be petrified every work out that he would injure himself)

brandonchristensen · Feb 20, 2018

All I can say is

FUCK YA

nvalvo · Feb 20, 2018

We should probably have a thread about the window.

I’ve made the case elsewhere, so I won’t rehash it all, but we need to develop some starting pitching, and quickly. There are guys in the system who could be those guys. They just have to pan out. If they do, we will have the resources to keep contending with this roster. If they don’t, we likely won’t.

Then again, I feel much less confident that I know what FAs cost after this offseason.

jon abbey · Feb 20, 2018

grimshaw said:
Curious if our Yankee fans here would rather have Stanton or JDM with their respective contracts - not trolling just wondering.

Stanton is 2+ years younger and a plus defender, plus he and Judge are so similar physically that Judge should be able to learn a lot from his extra years of experience of how pitchers go after giant guys like them (a subspecies of 2). Also it's easy to forget that NY dumped two years of Castro at 2/23 (worst defensive 2B in the AL last year) in the deal, now 2B is open for Torres whenever he is ready. Also if Stanton doesn't opt out and stays productive, he will be Judge insurance, Judge is due to hit FA in five seasons at 31. And NY is paying more in real money if Stanton doesn't opt out (they pay 10/265 then), but the AAV is $22M every year, same as JDM plus the defense.

I think JDM was an essential signing for BOS given the circumstances and makes that lineup much scarier on paper, I quoted the Insider Szymborski article here this AM that said that signing JDM would boost BOS' WS chances from 5.7% to 8%, that is huge. I would say that NY is still the favorites for the division, by a few games on current MLB rosters and with way way way more leeway to make midseason additions (both salary and prospect wise), but BOS is very talented at the big league level now and could easily win the division again.

One of the many reasons this season is looking so fun for Yankee fans is that if they fall short, Cashman can go all in next winter as was the plan originally. I think they are something like $80M under the $206M luxury number and I think they would go through that (next winter, once it resets this year) if they think it makes sense.

edoug · Feb 20, 2018

Even before they added Nunez and Martinez I thought the offense was going to be better. I have too much faith in the ability of the young core. Betts could be a a top 10 player. Bogaerts is an intelligent hitter. The problem is that he thinks too much. I think too often he knows what he's going to with each at bat. When he should just let his natural talent take over. Benintendi is going to go to be a multiple time All Star. Bradley needs consistency. The main reason for my confidence though is Devers. To steal from Peter Gammons, Rafael is special. A full year of Devers and a normalized year from the killer B's, the Sox are a formidable team.

MikeM · Feb 20, 2018

jon abbey said:
Stanton is 2+ years younger and a plus defender, plus he and Judge are so similar physically that Judge should be able to learn a lot from his extra years of experience of how pitchers go after giant guys like them (a subspecies of 2). Also it's easy to forget that NY dumped two years of Castro at 2/23 (worst defensive 2B in the AL last year) in the deal, now 2B is open for Torres whenever he is ready. Also if Stanton doesn't opt out and stays productive, he will be Judge insurance, Judge is due to hit FA in five seasons at 31. And NY is paying more in real money if Stanton doesn't opt out (they pay 10/265 then), but the AAV is $22M every year, same as JDM plus the defense.

I think JDM was an essential signing for BOS given the circumstances and makes that lineup much scarier on paper, I quoted the Insider Szymborski article here this AM that said that signing JDM would boost BOS' WS chances from 5.7% to 8%, that is huge. I would say that NY is still the favorites for the division, by a few games on current MLB rosters and with way way way more leeway to make midseason additions (both salary and prospect wise), but BOS is very talented at the big league level now and could easily win the division again.

One of the many reasons this season is looking so fun for Yankee fans is that if they fall short, Cashman can go all in next winter as was the plan originally. I think they are something like $80M under the $206M luxury number and I think they would go through that (next winter, once it resets this year) if they think it makes sense.

Don't worry, the surrounding aspect that we are now currently projected to outspend the Yankees in 2018 by $70m plus LT penalties isn't being lost in all this by everybody.

I'll happily take JDM at this contract over the 10 year roll of the dice on Stanton (even with that lower AAV) any day though, and would actually be sitting here more disappointed if things had played out in reverse.

uk_sox_fan · Feb 20, 2018

MikeM said:
Don't worry, the surrounding aspect that we are now currently projected to outspend the Yankees in 2018 by $70m plus LT penalties isn't being lost in all this by everybody.

I'll happily take JDM at this contract over the 10 year roll of the dice on Stanton (even with that lower AAV) any day though, and would actually be sitting here more disappointed if things had played out in reverse.

I think this is right (though Judge/Stanton scares the bejesus out of me more than anything since Matsui/Shef). If he gets injured or contracts Sandovalitis $110m is a lot to pay, but it's not going to be a backbreaker like Giancarlo's deal or anything close to what Boras was seeking would be. And the upside is just fine with me - if he gives us 2 or 3 terrific years in the middle of the order and leaves for another higher payday that's a deal I'll take any day of the week.

Adrian's Dome · Feb 20, 2018

maufman said:
I’m saying roll with what they’ve got.

JDM and Price are likely to be tying up north of $50 million in payroll when it comes time to make decisions on Sale, Betts, and Bogaerts. You might accept that if you had a terrific chance to win a title in the next couple of years, but I don’t think that’s the case — the MFY looked like a solid preseason favorite heading into the offseason, and they have only widened the gap (Stanton >>> JDM, obviously).

I’m afraid we’re going to be watching a terrible baseball team in the 2020s because DD decided to push his chips into the center of the table (or was told to do so by ownership), and I doubt we’re going to have a pennant to show for it.

Apparently you'd rather watch a flawed team now and waste a perfectly good window than potentially (doubtful, but we'll go with it because of your negativity) see a flawed squad 2-3 years down the road. Go have a beer with Ben Cherington, the rest of us enjoy being consistently competitive. I also find it curious that you're more concerned about signing Sale, Betts, and Bogaerts three years from now, but seemingly care nothing about wasting a few years of their primes while they're all still relatively cheap.

Lastly, perhaps before Martinez, the Yankees could be seen as favorites. An argument could be made either way, especially since over the course of a 162 game season, things tend to happen. Like, you know, injuries. Stuff like that. Plus, the Sox likely have a better starting rotation and a comparable (if not better) bullpen. Now, with Martinez, we don't quite have the same lineup, but I'd argue we're a more consistent roster top-to-bottom, and a team that just won 93 games and (gasp) beat the Yankees out for the division last year addressed their one glaring weakness with a comparable bat to the one the Yankees acquired themselves.

Only an extreme pessimist, and I'd argue one without logical perspective, would be so negative about this move and where this team stands at the moment.

Adrian's Dome · Feb 20, 2018

MikeM said:
Don't worry, the surrounding aspect that we are now currently projected to outspend the Yankees in 2018 by $70m plus LT penalties isn't being lost in all this by everybody.

Tell me, how much of that 70m you're focused on is DD's doing? Also, how is it DD's fault that the Yankees have made some solid trades and had some young players seriously break out, leading to a mostly cost-controlled roster? Seems to me that's something you should give Cashman credit for, not criticize our GM since he literally had nothing to do with it. Imagine our current roster without Hanley and Pablo's contracts on the books. Still dominant, but a LOT more financial flexibility to work with. Not DD's doing, but he's working with what he was given.

I don't exactly see any of the prospects he's traded lighting it up, nor do I see any gaping holes on this roster those prospects could've fixed. Meanwhile, this roster isn't what it is without Kimbrel, Sale, Price, Pomeranz, and Martinez, and the biggest reason the farm looks barren is because of the graduation of Benintendi and Devers (both of whom DD elected to hold on to,) so...I guess what I'm getting at, and this is something I'd LOVE to hear: what exactly would you have done differently?

A lot of baseball fans would kill to have a team with the financial power to spend like we can. I say instead of whining about it, go ahead and enjoy it.

Van Everyman · Feb 20, 2018

Not to go all Cafardo on this thread, I wonder if the single biggest person benefiting from this deal other than JDM is Mookie. I’m sure he had his own injuries last year to grapple with. And he wasn’t exactly terrible in 2017. But of all the guys who seemed to be a tick off in the wake of Ortiz’s retirement, it was him.

Having JDM in the lineup gives guys like Betts a little more time to establish themselves before they need to “be the man” in this lineup (to say nothing of Devers from whom we can probably expect some regression or at least struggles at some point). Consider it another reason for me to be stoked about this deal.

timlinin8th · Feb 20, 2018

maufman said:
There is a lot not to like.

The Sox just handed $110 million to a 30-year old who figures to be a DH moving forward and has played more than 125 games in a season exactly once. And if he exceeds expectations, he’ll opt out after 2 years — so we don’t get the upside if JDM’s aging curve ends up looking like Dwight Evans’s, but we own the downside if his production falls off a cliff.

This looks like a deal done by a GM who felt he had to do something. Would’ve much rather seen him keep his powder dry.

Let me ask you this: what would you say the odds of JDMs production falling off a cliff being? This isn’t a Pablo Sandoval, or even a Hanley Ramirez - this guy has been one of the premier hitters in MLB the last couple seasons. I’m guessing it’s almost guaranteed that he will be good enough to opt out, and I am fine with that. I don’t care if in 2020-2022 he puts up huge numbers for someone else, as long as he put up huge numbers in his time here.

maufman said:
I’m saying roll with what they’ve got.

JDM and Price are likely to be tying up north of $50 million in payroll when it comes time to make decisions on Sale, Betts, and Bogaerts.

By 2020, aside from those two assuming they don’t opt out, the only other players that have contracts committed to them right now are Pedroia, Castillo (final year), Sandoval (also final year), and a $2M payment to one M. Ramirez. Its not like the Red Sox payroll is so heavily constricted moving into that time that they can’t figure it out.

SouthernBoSox · Feb 20, 2018

This "window" where the team is essentially filled with outstanding talent also allows for 2 year of farm building. A lot can change in 2 years. They shouldn't have to strip it of much for a while.

soxeast · Feb 20, 2018

Sampo Gida said:
Well, a lot has changed in 12 months and I thought Yankee fans and FO were too pessimistic about 2017 chances anyways

Severino and Judge have shown they are for real after a disappointing 2016. Perhaps they were career years but even with a drop off they should be very good.

Gary Sanchez showed 2016 was no fluke. Defensively he needs work, but the bat makes up for it

Picking up Stanton for at least 3 years if not 10 at an AAV what Hanley and JDM gets for not very much is silly stuff

Bird and Monthomery showed they could be pretty good if healthy

Picking up Kahnle, D-Rob and the emegence of Chad Green to go with Betances and Chapman is more silly stuff

And 2 really good almost MLB ready and highly touted IFers in Andujar and Torres to step in at minimum salary to join a pretty good SS in Didi.

This does not consider Prospects like Frazier and Sheffield in a fairly well stocked farm system even after everyone is up at MLB

As important as the talent is, the financial flexibility with so many homegrown pre-arb players is , well, silly stuff

They can pretty much fill any hole that develops at the TD due to injury or bust with that farm and their financial flexibility.

Not to sell the Red Sox short, some luck with health and positive regression we are in this for 2018. But they are in better shape in the medium term.

Perhaps some bust out prospects DOTF and positive regression/breakouts at MLB level changes that perception in 12 months. We shall see.

JDM at least makes things look a bit rosier if he can handle Boston after what must have been a brutal offseason for him mentally and physically (had to be petrified every work out that he would injure himself)

We're talking about 2020, right? Anyhow, just like every year - a lot playoffs comes down to who is hot and which pitcher(s) are hot.

Monbonthbump · Feb 20, 2018

I'm not going to think ahead any further than 2018. This summer should be the two team rivalry that we haven't really had since the early years of this century when every Sox/Yanks game was a dogfight. Roll out the old tapes of The Captain vs Slappy McBluelips and let's sit back and enjoy the ride.

mauf · Feb 20, 2018

timlinin8th said:
Let me ask you this: what would you say the odds of JDMs production falling off a cliff being? This isn’t a Pablo Sandoval, or even a Hanley Ramirez - this guy has been one of the premier hitters in MLB the last couple seasons. I’m guessing it’s almost guaranteed that he will be good enough to opt out, and I am fine with that. I don’t care if in 2020-2022 he puts up huge numbers for someone else, as long as he put up huge numbers in his time here.

By 2020, aside from those two assuming they don’t opt out, the only other players that have contracts committed to them right now are Pedroia, Castillo (final year), Sandoval (also final year), and a $2M payment to one M. Ramirez. Its not like the Red Sox payroll is so heavily constricted moving into that time that they can’t figure it out.

People thought David Price was certain to opt out too. How’s that looking now? And at least he had a track record of durability (though that’s always a bit of a crapshoot with pitchers).

Your point about the payroll flexibility they’ll have in 2020 and beyond (even with Price and JDM on the books) is well taken. Maybe I’m too worried about that. But I think the collective brain trust here is way too optimistic about the next year or two — the MFY are as stacked as they’ve been in 15 years, and last year’s 93-win Sox team was not as good as its record. We were a good bet to land in the play-in game before; DD has spent a lot of John Henry’s money, but hasn’t really changed that. Which is why I would’ve preferred to see a different choice — or even standing pat.

Needless to say, I will be delighted if I’m wrong.

sean1562 · Feb 20, 2018

I think a lot of this team's future does hinge on the type of players Benintendi and Devers become. If they become great All Star players, we could be in good shape. If they are just solid regulars, then I am less optimistic. They were both top 10 prospects within the last two years

BaseballJones · Feb 20, 2018

uk_sox_fan said:
I think this is right (though Judge/Stanton scares the bejesus out of me more than anything since Matsui/Shef). If he gets injured or contracts Sandovalitis $110m is a lot to pay, but it's not going to be a backbreaker like Giancarlo's deal or anything close to what Boras was seeking would be. And the upside is just fine with me - if he gives us 2 or 3 terrific years in the middle of the order and leaves for another higher payday that's a deal I'll take any day of the week.

The real problem with the Yankee lineup is that it's not just Judge/Stanton. Here are not-unrealistic HR numbers for the middle of their lineup:

RF Judge - 50
DH Stanton - 50
SS Gregorius - 25
C Sanchez - 35
1b Bird - 30

I mean that Judge/Stanton/Gregorius/Sanchez/Bird core could hit 190 homers and that's not remotely unrealistic. The Red Sox as a team hit 168 last year. It should be better with improvement from Betts, Benny, Bogaerts, and Bradley, a full season from Devers, and the addition of Martinez (though the improvement will be mitigated some by the loss of ABs for Hanley (23 hr) and Moreland (22 hr). In other words, Martinez' addition isn't adding 45 homers to the lineup.

DJnVa · Feb 20, 2018

Sampo Gida said:
Well, a lot has changed in 12 months and I thought Yankee fans and FO were too pessimistic about 2017 chances anyways

Severino and Judge have shown they are for real after a disappointing 2016. Perhaps they were career years but even with a drop off they should be very good.

Gary Sanchez showed 2016 was no fluke. Defensively he needs work, but the bat makes up for it

Picking up Stanton for at least 3 years if not 10 at an AAV what Hanley and JDM gets for not very much is silly stuff

Bird and Monthomery showed they could be pretty good if healthy

Picking up Kahnle, D-Rob and the emegence of Chad Green to go with Betances and Chapman is more silly stuff

And 2 really good almost MLB ready and highly touted IFers in Andujar and Torres to step in at minimum salary to join a pretty good SS in Didi.

This does not consider Prospects like Frazier and Sheffield in a fairly well stocked farm system even after everyone is up at MLB

As important as the talent is, the financial flexibility with so many homegrown pre-arb players is , well, silly stuff

They can pretty much fill any hole that develops at the TD due to injury or bust with that farm and their financial flexibility.

Not to sell the Red Sox short, some luck with health and positive regression we are in this for 2018. But they are in better shape in the medium term.

Perhaps some bust out prospects DOTF and positive regression/breakouts at MLB level changes that perception in 12 months. We shall see.

JDM at least makes things look a bit rosier if he can handle Boston after what must have been a brutal offseason for him mentally and physically (had to be petrified every work out that he would injure himself)

This post is cubically transformed.

OCD SS · Feb 20, 2018

I'm concerned at just how close the Sox are to the CBT threshold; this really only allows for minor moves in-season. They don't have the ability to pick up a Verlander-type or other big veteran to fill a hole if someone goes down. All playoff teams by and large tend to be lucky with roster health, but that seems much more important for the Sox.

At the price JDM signed for, I would prefer the Sox didn't front load it and include opt outs in the deal (and especially not 2), but the fact is that if he does opt out, he'll have compensation attached to him that would make it easier for the Sox to trump offers or let him walk.

Saints Rest · Feb 20, 2018

Why is JDM as a FT DH at 30 giving people the willies? Have people forgotten a certain FT DH, recently retired who averaged 138 games and 31 HRs for 10 full seasons after he turned 31?

Jerry’s Curl · Feb 20, 2018

A lot of this year hinges on which Price and Porcello we get. A return to form for both and this is a legit World Series club.

Savin Hillbilly · Feb 20, 2018

timlinin8th said:
Let me ask you this: what would you say the odds of JDMs production falling off a cliff being? This isn’t a Pablo Sandoval, or even a Hanley Ramirez - this guy has been one of the premier hitters in MLB the last couple seasons.

J.D. Martinez ranks 4th in wRC+ among MLB hitters with 800 or more PA for 2016-17, with a 153. He's provided 57.6 runs in offensive value in those seasons.
Hanley Ramirez ranked 4th in wRC+ among MLB hitters with 800 or more PA for 2013-14, with a 158. He provided 55.3 runs in offensive value in those seasons.

Hanley was about 8 months older than JDM, had a bit more of a recent track record of inconsistency, and had a lot more mileage on him. His profile was also a bit different: fewer HR, better baserunning, more contact. But they were both "one of the premier hitters in MLB the last couple seasons" at the time of signing.

I'm happy about this signing. The team just got a whole lot more fun to watch for the next two years, and I don't think the downside is anywhere near serious enough to spoil that. I just wish people could stop talking as if this signing is obviously lower-risk than other recent big-ticket signings (Pablo aside). It isn't.

joe dokes · Feb 20, 2018

OCD SS said:
I'm concerned at just how close the Sox are to the CBT threshold; this really only allows for minor moves in-season. They don't have the ability to pick up a Verlander-type or other big veteran to fill a hole if someone goes down. All playoff teams by and large tend to be lucky with roster health, but that seems much more important for the Sox.

At the price JDM signed for, I would prefer the Sox didn't front load it and include opt outs in the deal (and especially not 2), but the fact is that if he does opt out, he'll have compensation attached to him that would make it easier for the Sox to trump offers or let him walk.

If someone goes down who can only be replaced by a Verlander-type, then the season is likely screwed anyway. For any team.

Red(s)HawksFan · Feb 20, 2018

Jerry’s Curl said:
A lot of this year hinges on which Price and Porcello we get. A return to form for both and this is a legit World Series club.

A strong case could be made that this statement was correct even before Martinez signed. Just to put the team's post-season prospects further into perspective.

The Gray Eagle · Feb 20, 2018

SouthernBoSox said:
This "window" where the team is essentially filled with outstanding talent also allows for 2 year of farm building. A lot can change in 2 years. They shouldn't have to strip it of much for a while.

This is extremely important. Building the farm system again needs to be a huge priority for the next few seasons. That's another reason why signing Martinez is good, he is a big power bat who didn't require us to give up a draft pick, and should mean we don't need to add another big hitter free agent for the next 2 to 3 years at least, so no draft picks given away to sign big bats anytime soon.

We may lose some key players over the next couple seasons, but we should be making qualifying offers to them, which should at least help to eventually replenish the farm too.

It's funny how some people seem to be so certain about what's going to happen two years from now when the reality is no one really knows what's going to happen two months from now.

In general, if we can rebuild the farm system over the next 2 or 3 years, we should be just fine. There's no guarantees of anything either way though.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Feb 20, 2018

Savin Hillbilly said:
J.D. Martinez ranks 4th in wRC+ among MLB hitters with 800 or more PA for 2016-17, with a 153. He's provided 57.6 runs in offensive value in those seasons.
Hanley Ramirez ranked 4th in wRC+ among MLB hitters with 800 or more PA for 2013-14, with a 158. He provided 55.3 runs in offensive value in those seasons.

Hanley was about 8 months older than JDM, had a bit more of a recent track record of inconsistency, and had a lot more mileage on him. His profile was also a bit different: fewer HR, better baserunning, more contact. But they were both "one of the premier hitters in MLB the last couple seasons" at the time of signing.

I'm happy about this signing. The team just got a whole lot more fun to watch for the next two years, and I don't think the downside is anywhere near serious enough to spoil that. I just wish people could stop talking as if this signing is obviously lower-risk than other recent big-ticket signings (Pablo aside). It isn't.

Interesting to wonder how playing a position he'd never played before, and clearly struggled with, affected Hanley at the plate. Asking him to play LF as opposed to just asking him to hit certainly seemed to increase the risk of that signing.

Savin Hillbilly · Feb 20, 2018

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Interesting to wonder how playing a position he'd never played before, and clearly struggled with, affected Hanley at the plate. Asking him to play LF as opposed to just asking him to hit certainly seemed to increase the risk of that signing.

True--though Martinez is also (absent a trade) being asked to switch positions. We tend to talk as if it goes without saying that DHing is easier than playing any defensive position, and obviously it is physically. But lots of players have commented on the difficulty of the mental adjustment. And we know it's an adjustment that Martinez had declared his aversion to making.

OCD SS · Feb 20, 2018

joe dokes said:
If someone goes down who can only be replaced by a Verlander-type, then the season is likely screwed anyway. For any team.

Not necessarily, although perhaps phrasing it as "goes down" was not quite right. The reason I used Verlander as an example is that I'm thinking at late season upgrades; another example off the top of my head is the '04 Cardinals acquisition of Larry Walker. With the Sox it is more likely to be filling a hole in the pitching staff (which could happen at any time).

To be clear, I'm not saying I'd rather have not signed JDM so as to preserve flexibility for in-season moves (it's important to win some games in the first part of the season as well), just that I would've preferred JDM's contract was structured so as to preserve that flexibility this season, even if it cost more at the back end.

Red(s)HawksFan · Feb 20, 2018

I would think the lack of significant prospect trade chips is more limiting in terms of what the Red Sox can acquire mid-season than their limited payroll flexibility.

nvalvo · Feb 20, 2018

Saints Rest said:
Why is JDM as a FT DH at 30 giving people the willies? Have people forgotten a certain FT DH, recently retired who averaged 138 games and 31 HRs for 10 full seasons after he turned 31?

If you use Ortiz’ career as your aging curve, you’re going to be bewildered by players’ 30s more often than not.

Saints Rest · Feb 20, 2018

nvalvo said:
If you use Ortiz’ career as your aging curve, you’re going to be bewildered by players’ 30s more often than not.

Fair, but I think that calculus changes a lot when you eliminate the wear and tear of fielding a position 125-150 games a year.

Mighty Joe Young · Feb 20, 2018

OCD SS said:
Not necessarily, although perhaps phrasing it as "goes down" was not quite right. The reason I used Verlander as an example is that I'm thinking at late season upgrades; another example off the top of my head is the '04 Cardinals acquisition of Larry Walker. With the Sox it is more likely to be filling a hole in the pitching staff (which could happen at any time).

To be clear, I'm not saying I'd rather have not signed JDM so as to preserve flexibility for in-season moves (it's important to win some games in the first part of the season as well), just that I would've preferred JDM's contract was structured so as to preserve that flexibility this season, even if it cost more at the back end.

Not sure if that would have been possible. Its all about AAV for tax purposes. Even if they had back loaded the deal - 20-20-20-25-25 for an AAV of 22m for example - the opt outs are always considered to be player options so the AAV would be the same. Of course , if the player opts out after year two then the tax hit would be reduced to 20m. But that would be a retroactive change and could have no long term effects at all.

What I don't know is how this is going to work with his current contract. If JDM opts out after year two, his AAV will be raised to 25m.If the Sox are at 235m at the end of the year that could conceivably push them over the 237m threshold where their 1st round pick is lowered 10 slots. Of course, that pick would already have been made. Would the penalty be pushed forward to 2020's draft?

Jerry’s Curl · Feb 20, 2018

Any idea when JDM will arrive in Ft. Myers?

MikeM · Feb 20, 2018

Adrian's Dome said:
Tell me, how much of that 70m you're focused on is DD's doing? Also, how is it DD's fault that the Yankees have made some solid trades and had some young players seriously break out, leading to a mostly cost-controlled roster? Seems to me that's something you should give Cashman credit for, not criticize our GM since he literally had nothing to do with it. Imagine our current roster without Hanley and Pablo's contracts on the books. Still dominant, but a LOT more financial flexibility to work with. Not DD's doing, but he's working with what he was given.

I don't exactly see any of the prospects he's traded lighting it up, nor do I see any gaping holes on this roster those prospects could've fixed. Meanwhile, this roster isn't what it is without Kimbrel, Sale, Price, Pomeranz, and Martinez, and the biggest reason the farm looks barren is because of the graduation of Benintendi and Devers (both of whom DD elected to hold on to,) so...I guess what I'm getting at, and this is something I'd LOVE to hear: what exactly would you have done differently?

A lot of baseball fans would kill to have a team with the financial power to spend like we can. I say instead of whining about it, go ahead and enjoy it.

Wow, you read an awful lot into one sentence there that was simply pointing out where the back drop financials currently stood.

Duly noted though that becoming MLB's new top spender, by a significant amount, is apparently going to be a touchy subject among some going forward. Not to mention we've officially come full circle if expressing a surrounding concern over that here can now be classified as "whining".

DennyDoyle'sBoil · Feb 20, 2018

maufman said:
People thought David Price was certain to opt out too. How’s that looking now? And at least he had a track record of durability (though that’s always a bit of a crapshoot with pitchers).

If Martinez doesn't end up opting out, it won't be a disaster like the Price contract. It will be unfortunate, but he's still going to be a useful player, and even if he's only an $8 or $10 million player in the final three years you can weather $60 million for 3 or 4 WAR.

The Price options-are-a-good-thing is one of the more bizarre threads I can remember on Sosh in forever. Without dredging everything up, I think it's fair that there were an awful lot us -- maybe not the loudest -- who surely thought there was a substantial risk that a 4/126 contract for a 33-year old pitcher was going to look crappy. I hate these player options,but I don't think these two deals are really in the same ballpark.

I see the $60 million here as mostly the cost of the 2/50 deal for a player whose agent probably rightly was able to say, "he needs some long-term security for injury," and the Sox were willing to pay it even though it also gives them some downside for regression. But, they can live with it.

I'm just happy that with the Castillo and Panda deals, the Hanley deal, and being saddled through some pretty good free agent markets and only just coming out from under the Allen Craig deal, that the Red Sox have managed to field a highly competitive team for 2018. That was a neat trick, and the potential downside of the JDM deal is just the cost of doing that.

mauf · Feb 20, 2018

Savin Hillbilly said:
J.D. Martinez ranks 4th in wRC+ among MLB hitters with 800 or more PA for 2016-17, with a 153. He's provided 57.6 runs in offensive value in those seasons.
Hanley Ramirez ranked 4th in wRC+ among MLB hitters with 800 or more PA for 2013-14, with a 158. He provided 55.3 runs in offensive value in those seasons.

Hanley was about 8 months older than JDM, had a bit more of a recent track record of inconsistency, and had a lot more mileage on him. His profile was also a bit different: fewer HR, better baserunning, more contact. But they were both "one of the premier hitters in MLB the last couple seasons" at the time of signing.

I'm happy about this signing. The team just got a whole lot more fun to watch for the next two years, and I don't think the downside is anywhere near serious enough to spoil that. I just wish people could stop talking as if this signing is obviously lower-risk than other recent big-ticket signings (Pablo aside). It isn't.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Interesting to wonder how playing a position he'd never played before, and clearly struggled with, affected Hanley at the plate. Asking him to play LF as opposed to just asking him to hit certainly seemed to increase the risk of that signing.

Thank you. The Hanley parallel makes a lot of sense — though I think the prior regime was reasonable in expecting that a guy who had played shortstop in The Show (albeit poorly) for several years would be able to contribute with his glove somewhere on the field. I suspect SoSH would’ve liked that deal a lot less if we had known he’d never find a defensive position.

With JDM, the lack of defense is baked into the cake from the outset. As BMHH notes, that means we at least don’t have to worry about defensive struggles carrying over to other parts of his game. But it also means some of the upside we thought Hanley had isn’t in play here.

I do think part of my dislike for this signing is the way it’s being positioned as low-risk, limited reward. As Carl Crawford taught us, there’s no such thing as a low-risk, long-term contract for a free agent.

Adrian's Dome · Feb 20, 2018

MikeM said:
Wow, you read an awful lot into one sentence there that was simply pointing out where the back drop financials currently stood.

Duly noted though that becoming MLB's new top spender, by a significant amount, is apparently going to be a touchy subject among some going forward. Not to mention we've officially come full circle if expressing a surrounding concern over that here can now be classified as "whining".

As if you haven't been consistently whining about DD and all his moves in essentially every topic on the main board indefinitely. It's not very difficult to "read into" your stance, but by all means, take the high road when you're called out.

OCD SS · Feb 20, 2018

Red(s)HawksFan said:
I would think the lack of significant prospect trade chips is more limiting in terms of what the Red Sox can acquire mid-season than their limited payroll flexibility.

It seems like most of the time these players are dealt for salary relief & marginal prospects, rather than higher end talent. Not having the payroll flexibility means that they can't just absorb salary to get a deal done.

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Not sure if that would have been possible. Its all about AAV for tax purposes. Even if they had back loaded the deal - 20-20-20-25-25 for an AAV of 22m for example - the opt outs are always considered to be player options so the AAV would be the same. Of course , if the player opts out after year two then the tax hit would be reduced to 20m. But that would be a retroactive change and could have no long term effects at all.

I was thinking in terms of a contract at 5 years at $23M per year ($115M total guaranteed). That gives the Sox more certainty and wiggle room this year against the $25M AAV number if he opts out (which is more likely IMO when those years pay the player less). I would've been happier to get more control of JDM in this market.

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
What I don't know is how this is going to work with his current contract. If JDM opts out after year two, his AAV will be raised to 25m.If the Sox are at 235m at the end of the year that could conceivably push them over the 237m threshold where their 1st round pick is lowered 10 slots. Of course, that pick would already have been made. Would the penalty be pushed forward to 2020's draft?

At some point some intrepid reporter will unearth the actual language in the joint agreement that details exactly how the revised consequences are administered. I think it's safe to assume that they will still be enforced until we know differently, and that the Sox will treat his deal as if it is at an AAV of $25M for the purposes of dealing with their budget. It's not an issue if they go down, but adding penalties years after would be a problem.

MikeM · Feb 20, 2018

Adrian's Dome said:
As if you haven't been consistently whining about DD and all his moves in essentially every topic on the main board indefinitely. It's not very difficult to "read into" your stance, but by all means, take the high road when you're called out.

All his moves? I complained about Moreland, love the Nunez re-sign on the cheap, and already stated that I won't be criticizing this one in an isolated context.

But feel free to keep writing in that exaggerated narrative if it helps serve your own apparently biased need to go on the defensive attack there I guess.

tonyarmasjr · Feb 20, 2018

Savin Hillbilly said:
J.D. Martinez ranks 4th in wRC+ among MLB hitters with 800 or more PA for 2016-17, with a 153. He's provided 57.6 runs in offensive value in those seasons.
Hanley Ramirez ranked 4th in wRC+ among MLB hitters with 800 or more PA for 2013-14, with a 158. He provided 55.3 runs in offensive value in those seasons.

Hanley was about 8 months older than JDM, had a bit more of a recent track record of inconsistency, and had a lot more mileage on him. His profile was also a bit different: fewer HR, better baserunning, more contact. But they were both "one of the premier hitters in MLB the last couple seasons" at the time of signing.

I'm happy about this signing. The team just got a whole lot more fun to watch for the next two years, and I don't think the downside is anywhere near serious enough to spoil that. I just wish people could stop talking as if this signing is obviously lower-risk than other recent big-ticket signings (Pablo aside). It isn't.

This is a bit nitpicky, as I noticed the similarities between the two myself as I was looking at it last night, but those 2 years of Hanley include his outlier career year. It also came with the already-mentioned expectation of positive defensive value. JDM has 4 consecutive years of similar high level success that, I think, offer more confidence/less risk in that "4th in wRC+." On the whole, though, your point stands.

For me, there is so much less risk in this front-loaded 5/$110 deal than the expected 6/$150 type (or the Boras-posited 7/$210) that it's hard to have a problem with the amount of risk that obviously still exists.

chawson · Feb 20, 2018

LesterFan said:
ZiPS projections for JDM (courtesy of Dan Szymborski‏)

Has him worth 52 million over the next 2 years, 74 over 3, and 104 over 5. Pretty much in line with the contract.

streeter88 said:
Wow - uncannily similar to the contract terms.

Really excited about the prospects for this year. Bring on the games!

I like these projections and agree that they're similar to the contract terms, but it should be noted that they're based on JDM's injury-pocked history as an outfielder. I'm hoping we'd be able to get something more like 150 games out of him as a full-time DH, with maybe 2 games per NL series in left.

Adrian's Dome · Feb 20, 2018

MikeM said:
All his moves? I complained about Moreland, love the Nunez re-sign on the cheap, and already stated that I won't be criticizing this one in an isolated context.

But feel free to keep writing in that exaggerated narrative if it helps serve your own apparently biased need to go on the defensive attack there I guess.

"In an isolated context" while taking not-so-subtle swipes at the budget. What a dodgy bullshit response, as per usual. How about you save it and actually answer the question I originally presented that you so pleasantly stepped around while going full passive-aggressive: what, exactly, would you have done differently? Be a productive poster and come up with reasonable alternative solutions while remaining competitive instead of constant nitpicking and criticism.

Minneapolis Millers · Feb 20, 2018

chawson said:
...I'm hoping we'd be able to get something more like 150 games out of him as a full-time DH, with maybe 2 games per NL series in left.

Agreed. It will be disappointing if he never gets to 500+ ABs in a Sox season. I'm hoping those P/T projections end up 5-10% short.

JDM is signed-5 years, 110 mil

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