State Secrets- Can a Player give his team an edge against his old team

bakahump

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I mentioned I was a little worried about Long and Blount despite the fact that on a weekly basis as a whole we poopoo the idea that any advantage is gained by a new team.

But I am not so sure.

I am not sure where to start. With so much movement it seems difficult to do this all at once. Instead I propose an ongoing thread. If we see a game with a "Player returning to face his former team" we document it here.
I think we should try to stay with "Starters" and not Practice Squad players or deep roster backups. Some positions like QBs (LBs, S?, CB) might carry more weight

I have only looked quickly, but 2 interesting examples I found based on "biggest FA moves this year" are:
Mike Glennon who had the best game his umm "subpar" year against the Bucs. He had "Season highs" (out of 4 games...) in completions, Comp%, and yards. He also threw 2 Ints so it wasnt all peaches and cream. The Bears did lose. So i guess you need to put this in the "No advantage" camp.
AJ Bouye and his new Jacksonville Jags positively throttled the Texans led by TJ Yates. Wait dont laugh. Yates was bad even for him in that game 12/31 128 yards and an INT (by Church, not Bouye). The Texans also ran for their 4th least yards all year.

So did Glennon and Bouye have some insight or experience that helped their new team prepare for their old? It certainly doesnt jump off the page saying yes, but there are some indications that it might have helped.

Feel free to give your examples. Like any experiment I just ask you go in with an open mind.
 

bakahump

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Matt Kalil
Old Team Vikes
New Team Panthers (H)
Week 14
Panthers Win
Rush for 216 Yards (2nd highest all season)
Sacked only 2 times.
 

RSN Diaspora

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Jul 29, 2005
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Matt Kalil
Old Team Vikes
New Team Panthers (H)
Week 14
Panthers Win
Rush for 216 Yards (2nd highest all season)
Sacked only 2 times.
I'm going to regret going down this rabbit hole, but it's really hard to see how correlation comes anywhere close to causation here. We're talking about an offensive tackle who spent most of last season on IR.
 

Leather

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Yeah, this is not helpful. There's way, way, too much noise to isolate the variable you are trying to analyze.
 

bakahump

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Kevin Zeitler
Old Team Bengals
New Team Browns
Wk 4 Bengals win 31-7
Wk 12 Bengals win 30-16
In week 4 they ran for 45 yards (lowest all season) Sacked 2 times
In week 12 they ran for 169, Second highest. Sacked 4 times
 

bakahump

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Wasnt aware of Kalils Injury last year. Thanks for pointing it out.

I will say I think the "any Info they provide is a year old argument" is a bit overblown. We know teams go back and look at film a year old and older.
 

Leather

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The fundamental flaw is that there's no way to know how much a team counters that knowledge by A) changing the playbook (and to what extent); and/or B) using the knowledge against the new team by using identical signals/looks and then doing something completely different.

Without knowing that, I think it's just guesswork.
 

BigJimEd

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And why just starters? If your premise is they give inside knowledge well backups are in the same meetings.

By only including starters I would say your are already slanting the results.

For instance, adding Bouye increased the Jaguars talent level while also decreasing Houston's. How do you determine how much each played a role in any improvement.
That's not even getting into other free agent signings, like Campbell, and losses.
 

Marciano490

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I really wish there was only a week between conference championships and the Super Bowl.
 

stp

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“I mean, look, at any team — this is the National Football League. Players change teams,” Belichick said during his press conference. “We have David Harris. I mean, this isn’t some kind of unprecedented event. That’s just not what it is. We face somebody that’s been on our team every week. We have somebody on our team that was with another team that we play against. That’s the way it is every week. This is the National Football League. We’re not talking about college now where players don’t change teams. This is professional football. It’s like that every year. It’s like that every week. It’s like that on every team. I don’t know. I don’t see it as some big historical event.”

Bill Belichick after the James Harrison signing.

https://sports.yahoo.com/bill-belichick-james-harrison-signing-152809492.html?src=rss
 

NortheasternPJ

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The biggest advantage I can see coming into the two weeks is that Blount and Long just did it last year. Helping the Eagles with how to prepare for the 2 weeks, the media days, they hype etc. Talking to coaching staff how the Patriots prepared for the build up the day of and the long half time is a bigger factor than them knowing the Patriots plays. A huge advantage for the Patriots is they've done this 8 (seriously? 8?) times in the last 17 years and have a good idea of what works and what doesn't.
 

The Big Red Kahuna

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Someone politely tried to nip this in the bud in the other thread, and you ignored them. It's an absurd theory. Beyond absurd. Only made more absurd by you picking literally one example (where there are hundreds every year) to try and prove/disprove.