BA Top 100 List Is Out...

Snodgrass'Muff

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Sox don't look good.

Groome at 83
Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Cutter: 55

Chavis at 85
Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Speed: 45 | Fielding: 45 | Arm: 55

That's it.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-top-100-prospects-tools/?utm_content=buffer55d97&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer#mbaOqHpU01sEpZiy.97

Top ten overall goes:

1: Acuna
2: Ohtani
3: Vlad Jr.
4: Eloy Jimenez
5: Robles
6: Gleyber Torres
7: Nick Senzel
8: Bo Bichette
9: Fernando Tatis Jr.
10: Forrest Whitley

Kopech came in at 11, Espinoza fell off the list entirely. I didn't spot any other former Sox on it. Moncada graduated.
 

moondog80

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Keith Law has 51-100 of his top 100 up as well. Chavis checks in at 76, Groome not listed so presumably he is in the top 50.
If we're going to have some good, cheap guys in 2022 to offset the big contracts, the next couple of draft/international signing periods are critical.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Groome could be in the top 50, but it wouldn't shock me if he's just not on that list. His rankings last year were mostly from his pedigree. A bad year basically wipes out the credit you get for having pedigree in these kinds of rankings, so now he's gonna have to earn his spot on these lists going forward with performance.

But yeah, hopefully one or two players from last year's draft steps forward, and maybe they get lucky and Diaz's bat plays as he get some work in the DSL.
 

grimshaw

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No major surprises really. If Mata has a good half season maybe he sneaks in at some point, but I don't see anyone else getting there this year.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Six Yankees on the list, interesting to see Chance Adams pushed further down on the list past the other top Yankee pitching prospects.
He's basically what he was last year (which is still a really nice prospect) and several of them took steps forward. Adams' ceiling isn't huge, though his floor is high. BA tends to have toosly high ceiling prospects well rated. Not a shock, but yeah, interesting.
 

Wingack

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He's basically what he was last year (which is still a really nice prospect) and several of them took steps forward. Adams' ceiling isn't huge, though his floor is high. BA tends to have toosly high ceiling prospects well rated. Not a shock, but yeah, interesting.
Yeah, I totally get the rationale. And if things break right or Sheffield or Abreu they have No. 1 potential. Same goes for Frecier Perez who Keith Law ranked in the 70's this morning. Adams doesn't have that topside, but he is ready and could be a good pitcher for a long time, between a top 30-50 starter in baseball.
 

Cesar Crespo

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No major surprises really. If Mata has a good half season maybe he sneaks in at some point, but I don't see anyone else getting there this year.
If Mata's velocity improves a bit, he'll become much more exciting. Not that unheard for an 18 year old kid to do. Right now, he seems limited to the back half of the top 100.

Tanner Houck has a chance to make the list too if he has a good year. Any other prospect would have to take some pretty big steps forward.
 

moondog80

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Groome checks in at #30 on Law's top 100. No other Sox in top 50. Kopech is #11.
 

moondog80

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Tanner Houck makes it to Keith Law's "Just Outside the Top 100 List" (effectively ranked between 101-110).

If Houck shows that he can start, he's a top-100 prospect.

There's a lot of question about whether that's the case with him, as he's primarily a two-pitch guy (two-seamer and breaking ball) with some reliever-ish characteristics in his delivery and below-average command. He also dominated a great conference for three years at Missouri, and there's no question about his aggressiveness on the mound or his size and frame.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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MLB's top 100 is out, and it has some massive differences from the BA list. Really interesting to see things like Fernando Tatis Jr. down at 52 and with a 50 hit and 55 power. Or Austin Meadows up at 17.

Anyway, the Sox checked in at 43 (Groome) and 93 (Chavis).

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017
 

Bigpupp

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MLB's top 100 is out, and it has some massive differences from the BA list. Really interesting to see things like Fernando Tatis Jr. down at 52 and with a 50 hit and 55 power. Or Austin Meadows up at 17.

Anyway, the Sox checked in at 43 (Groome) and 93 (Chavis).

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017
That's last year's list. Change the end of your link to 2018 to see the current one.
 
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grimshaw

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I knew about the big time prospects Vladi and Tatis obviously having big league dads, but Paul Quantrill's son Cal is #40.

I am officially old.
 

Wingack

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BA came out with their organizational rankings.

Top 5:
1. Braves
2. Yankees
3. Padres
4. White Sox
5. Rays

Bottom 5:
26. Giants
27. Mets
28. Cubs
29. Royals
30. Mariners

AL East:
2. Yankees
5. Rays
7. Blue Jays
17. Orioles
24. Red Sox
 

moondog80

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Law has the Sox ranked 24th as well, which I'm guessing is slightly better than people expected.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm as bullish as anyone on Michael Chavis and think he offers more potential value to the Redsox than anything they would get in return, but it is depressing to see him listed as our number 1 prospect. I'm a big homer and love some fringe prospects but that list is just bad. There is some upside there but things have to go very right.

Nice to see Castellanos and Tyler Hill get some ink tho. I'm definitely dreaming on Pedro hitting for power. In his first 2 seasons, he's hit a combined .332/.389/.478 in 481 PA with 30bb and 42 strikes. That's a 6.2% walk rate and a 8.7% K rate, ridiculous. He's probably my favorite guy in the system to follow. This year was even more absurd as he hit .339/.385/.457 in 208 PA with 10bb/15k. That's a 4.8% walk rate and a 7.2% K rate.

Kinda reminds me of Shea Hillenbrand with better contact skills and the potential for more power, and minus a real position.
 

grimshaw

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Longenhagen is generally pretty stingy, like John Sickels, so I was a little encouraged by him not discounting Dalbec. I had pretty much written him off. At least there are a few guys he thought had more upside than their "current" future value indicated like Mara (who we all love) and Darwinzon Hernandez.

On the other hand - he was totally unimpressed by Scherff. I thought he had a higher ceiling.

But ya - not deep aside from back end arms.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Longenhagen is generally pretty stingy, like John Sickels, so I was a little encouraged by him not discounting Dalbec. I had pretty much written him off. At least there are a few guys he thought had more upside than their "current" future value indicated like Mara (who we all love) and Darwinzon Hernandez.

On the other hand - he was totally unimpressed by Scherff. I thought he had a higher ceiling.

But ya - not deep aside from back end arms.
With Dalbec it basically comes down to the strikeout rate. If he can get down into the high 20's, his power will play and he's got a future as a big leaguer. He hasn't had a full season where he's been healthy, though, so no way to know if he can do that. 37.4% last year is really ugly. Hopefully, finally healthy, he improves on that in 2018.

I think his ceiling is probably a lesser version of Judge. He's got the same kind of raw power and will have the same kinds of contact issues (at least) which will limit his batting average most years. I guess you could say his ceiling is more Gallo and it wouldn't be unfair. Either way, it just comes down to the amount of swing and miss in his game. He takes walks just fine, and hits the ball really far when he does get a hold of it.

Of course, his floor is someone who never even makes it to AA, so the error bars on projecting him are gonna be huge.
 

burstnbloom

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"His ceiling is a lesser version of Judge"?
Is that all that unreasonable? Aaron Judge hit a homerun on 1 out of every 3 fb he hit last year, a number that was huge outlier and 18 percentage points higher than his professional average for every other fly ball in his professional career. If that was his average, he would have hit 28 home runs. There was probably some real improvement last year but its not likely that he will continue to hit home runs on 35% of his fly balls, so guesstimate that down to 35ish. Dalbec with a 25-28 hr .450 slg isnt that unreasonable of a comp.

I guess it all depends if you really believe that Judge is the guy he was last year, i really dont think that is the case.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If you are looking for a silver lining, Dalbec did finish the last 2 months with a slash line of .273/.380/.529 in 142 PA. That includes 10 doubles and 7 HRs. He also had 18 bb and 53 strikeouts. So the strikeout rate was basically identical to his season rate.

Up to that point, Dalbec was slashing .232/.326/358 on a .358 BAbip in 219 PA.
 

keninten

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Is that all that unreasonable? Aaron Judge hit a homerun on 1 out of every 3 fb he hit last year, a number that was huge outlier and 18 percentage points higher than his professional average for every other fly ball in his professional career. If that was his average, he would have hit 28 home runs. There was probably some real improvement last year but its not likely that he will continue to hit home runs on 35% of his fly balls, so guesstimate that down to 35ish. Dalbec with a 25-28 hr .450 slg isnt that unreasonable of a comp.

I guess it all depends if you really believe that Judge is the guy he was last year, i really dont think that is the case.
I don`t think Judge will hit 30 HRs or .240. I was waiting for a prediction thread.